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Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-05-2017 05:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-05-2017 04:49 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-05-2017 03:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Frank,

The lack of logic, or wild conclusion of Dennis Dodd, should not be surprising. While many here note (and more on twitter) how generally less than intelligent Dodd is, the same can be said for nearly every sportswriter and broadcaster.

Dodd is good at having sources and having sources tell him things. This column was, not that. Moving on.

Quote:Hence they are always surprised by off field decisions.

Quote:Now to the subject on hand. I agree on the 5 P5 champions, I am less thrilled with the G5 getting a bid. I think they should be in the pool to consider, but should not automatically be in one of those three slots. This Year UCF and I think that 2004 Boise State team I'd be fine with. But others like WMU last year ... no. Perhaps a top 15 or top 12 ranking would be required.

Now you're being surprised by off-the-field decisions. The G5 isn't going to agree to sit quietly and approve this if they get LESS than they have now, which is 1 bid out of however many there are. They can't face their stakeholders and say "well we got X" when X is clearly less than what they have now.

Quote:The biggest problem I see is the semi-final games.

I agree. If you're relying on fans, you're talking about a trip to the CCG, to the New Years' quarterfinal, and adding a semifinal. I'd expect the semifinal and quarterfinal sites to rotate in the 6 New Years Bowls (2 bowls "double-host" much like the old BCS), so it's a known destination.

Will the schools be able to sell out their ticket allotments for 4 road trips? PRobably, but that's a concern.

In my perfect world, the bowls would host the quarterfinals on/around New Years. Then, the *semifinals* would be on-campus games at the two highest ranked remaining teams. That gives every playoff participant a bowl trip and provides a true home field advantage to the two highest ranked opponents in the semifinal round (which is a big-time incentive to get as high of a ranking as you can plus reduces travel fatigue). There are some logistical concerns with that type of format (e.g. winterized Northern stadiums), but I like that format more than making the first round into on-campus games (because maybe it's just me, but I can't stand the thought of having the "reward" for the very best elite teams of being a December road trip to a place like Tuscaloosa while inferior teams get to go to LA, Miami or Orlando for New Years).

Close but when the P4 occurs, the CCG will become the defacto semi CFP bids with the committee having veto override if the 8-4 upsets the 12-0 team. Just my prediction:

Pac 12 takes TX, TT, OU and OSU to go to 16. ND will dictate their terms to join the ACC and who comes with them. Big 10 and 12 will on go to 16 if there are teams they truly want in the conference. Show seeing 70-72 teams that will be power teams. I see some G5 moving up and P5 getting left. See the remaining B12 teams and AAC create the new tallest midget.

What I like to see as 16 team conferences.
For the ACC, I would love to see the ACC have SMU, TCU or Houston as the 16th team but see ND wanting Navy as football only. Fits with Wake, BC and Duke just with bigger fan base.

B10 take Kansas and a Texas School

SEC - WVU and ISU or KSU

Again, I just be happy to be around since I will be in my 60's when the GOR expires.
12-05-2017 06:43 PM
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BIgCatonProwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
Todd thinking, is precisely what is wrong with CFB D1 FB I said it before and I'll keep saying. CFB D1 is the only sport that does not a have true playoff format HS FB has it, lower Div CFB has it NFL has it CFB D1 for some strange reason believes they don't need to have one The BS about the CFB college FB public not wanting to see a underdog flies in the face of American tradition and culture. A nation, founded by underdogs against the greatest empire in the world at the time. Who does Todd think he is fooling with this horse manure he is trying to peddle
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2017 08:10 PM by BIgCatonProwl.)
12-05-2017 06:50 PM
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solohawks Online
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Post: #23
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
I think the powers at be want to avoid auto bids simply for the fact that sets you up for antitrust issues.

The old BCS had 6 auto bids and 2 at large bids. The non auto bid conferences, led by the Tulane president I believe, worked out a more inclusive system in BCS 2.0 that virtually guaranteed a non auto bid conference champ would get in. The got the Auto 6 to the table via an antitrust threat if I'm not mistaken

In this system the non auto bid conferences are included on the NY6 games via a mutually agreed selection of the highest ranked G5 champion. No one, technically, is guaranteed a bid in the 4 team playoff.

If the system were expand to 8 they would have to work with the G5 conferences to include some form of guarantee to them. If they did not the G5 would have a case for exclusion and possible antitrust for which the original BCS was at risk
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2017 07:08 PM by solohawks.)
12-05-2017 07:08 PM
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3BNole Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
That's why I really like the 8-team model which includes 5-auto bids to the P5 conference champs, 1-auto bid to the highest ranked G5 conference champ, and 2 at-large teams.
12-05-2017 07:23 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-05-2017 07:08 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I think the powers at be want to avoid auto bids simply for the fact that sets you up for antitrust issues.

The old BCS had 6 auto bids and 2 at large bids. The non auto bid conferences, led by the Tulane president I believe, worked out a more inclusive system in BCS 2.0 that virtually guaranteed a non auto bid conference champ would get in. The got the Auto 6 to the table via an antitrust threat if I'm not mistaken

In this system the non auto bid conferences are included on the NY6 games via a mutually agreed selection of the highest ranked G5 champion. No one, technically, is guaranteed a bid in the 4 team playoff.

If the system were expand to 8 they would have to work with the G5 conferences to include some form of guarantee to them. If they did not the G5 would have a case for exclusion and possible antitrust for which the original BCS was at risk

The G5 autobid is insurance against anti-trust issues. Lets be honest---eventually the P5 is going to have anti-trust issues with anything like the current system because it effectively excludes the G5 from the playoff. When you can win every game and cant even make the top ten--your are excluded from the playoff. Its sorta like a country club with an all white membership saying "thats only the case because none of the African American country club applicants were able to meet the membership committee's criteria". Good luck in court with that.
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2017 07:26 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-05-2017 07:23 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
You don't need G5 buy in. P5 have the votes to override.

They'll throw them a bone that if a G5 is in the top 12 or something they get in. That is all they need to do.
12-05-2017 07:28 PM
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billings Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-05-2017 03:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  Even the health of the players is a little bit of a bogus issue as every other division, including non-scholarship Division III, has playoffs larger than 8. Many states have 32-64 game playoffs in high school.

And what's wrong with an 8 game playoff including a G5 champ? As far as the autobid, that is one of the biggest reasons for expanding to 8. Champs get autobids in every other NCAA sport.

Not really as the FCS usually only plays an 11 game schedule and no championship games. SO the FCS plays 2 fewer games then the FBS teams now in the season.

High schools can have 10 or less games in a regular season

Yea health matter. Pay the damm players as pros if you keep insisting on more playing time
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2017 07:55 PM by billings.)
12-05-2017 07:54 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-05-2017 07:28 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  You don't need G5 buy in. P5 have the votes to override.

They'll throw them a bone that if a G5 is in the top 12 or something they get in. That is all they need to do.

That wont work since the committee would simply never place a G5 above 12. The country club example above in action. Now, you can fix it without changing any criteria. All you would need to do is make the selection committee a 10 member body with each FBS conference appointing one representative. Frankly, such a committee would probably have UCF much higher in the rankings--yet I suspect it would probably have the same top 5.
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2017 08:44 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-05-2017 08:43 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #29
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
Here's a plan. Don't call it a playoff--make it an invitational tournament. Cannibalize the Big 12. Let the traditional Big 10 vs Pac 12 Champions match up in the Rose Bowl and let the ACC winner face the SEC winner in the Sugar Bowl. Winners play a week later in the tournament final. Let the AP and Coaches be the ones who technically crown a national champion but I imagine they would be hard pressed to name someone other than the tournament champion their winner.

Conferences get their CCG money and winning a division truly means something--a trip to the de facto quarterfinals.
Traditional bowls are preserved.
The 4 super-conferences control all of the money.
No extra games needed.
12-05-2017 10:10 PM
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ThreeDogKnight Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
You can't base the G5 qualification on CFP rankings. Not with this committee, anyway. I don't have the answers, but in order for CFP rankings to work for the G5, either the committee would need to be reformed to be more balanced in G5 and P5 representation, or some kind of metric would need to be used to provide accountability in some way. I'm not one of those who wildly throws the words "committee bias" around, but at the very least (IMO) there is some unintentional bias there that naturally reflects the P5-heavy makeup of the committee.

Let's face it, it's not like I wouldn't do the same. If I were on the committee and was presented with a choice between an undefeated G5 who had a SoS of 100 and a P5 with better SoS but three losses, I would choose the G5 every single time. This is not only because I'm a G5 homer, but it's also because I'm much more interested in the NCAA's when a George Mason, Butler or VCU is in the Final Four, and I really want bowl games like Boise State-OU to happen more often than once every couple of generations.

TL;DR You can't expand the CFP and simply have a minimum ranking requirement with this committee. They'll just rank the G5 lower.
12-06-2017 12:43 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 12:43 AM)ThreeDogKnight Wrote:  You can't base the G5 qualification on CFP rankings. Not with this committee, anyway. I don't have the answers, but in order for CFP rankings to work for the G5, either the committee would need to be reformed to be more balanced in G5 and P5 representation, or some kind of metric would need to be used to provide accountability in some way. I'm not one of those who wildly throws the words "committee bias" around, but at the very least (IMO) there is some unintentional bias there that naturally reflects the P5-heavy makeup of the committee.

Let's face it, it's not like I wouldn't do the same. If I were on the committee and was presented with a choice between an undefeated G5 who had a SoS of 100 and a P5 with better SoS but three losses, I would choose the G5 every single time. This is not only because I'm a G5 homer, but it's also because I'm much more interested in the NCAA's when a George Mason, Butler or VCU is in the Final Four, and I really want bowl games like Boise State-OU to happen more often than once every couple of generations.

TL;DR You can't expand the CFP and simply have a minimum ranking requirement with this committee. They'll just rank the G5 lower.

As far as the G5/P5 ranking issue goes---there is no good answer. The truth is, there isnt enough interaction between the G5 and P5 (especially top P5's vs top G5's) to really tell anything. Computer models are just guessing becasue they dont have enough data to be statistically meaningful.

We know from the BCS busters and the CFP access bowl--that more times than not--the top G5 is capable of playing with a top 10 P5. We also know the committee is generally competent at comparing P5 to P5 and G5 to G5. It seems to have little ability to compare G5 to P5 and the default ceiling for a top undefeated G5 is somewhere between 10-15. The committee (under the current defeault composition) is always going to say a G5 cant be a top 10 team.

Given what we know, I think the only 2 solutions to the issue are---

1) Make the committee a balanced body that is one rep per FBS conference.

or

2) Make the G5 slot a playoff slot as the committee seems perfectly competent at determining the top G5 champ.

That said, barring a violent takeover of the streets of Washington DC by crazed G5 fans, G5 teams should gird themselves for 9 more years of the access bowl being the pinnacle of non-power conference football. I do think the G5 will get a legitimate path to the playoff in the next version of the CFP--but until then...I dont see much changing.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 01:06 AM by Attackcoog.)
12-06-2017 01:04 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.
12-06-2017 08:35 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 09:37 AM by quo vadis.)
12-06-2017 09:35 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.

I think 8 is more than enough. The 5 P5 champs and the top G5 would be acceptable. When you add in the top two non-champs, you then eliminate any chance that the top 2 schools could possibly be left out of the playoffs. I think that model is not too big—not too small—and minimizes the subjective influence of the committee while guaranteeing that the top two teams can’t be left out due to a CCG upset. It may not be the perfect model, but it’s darn close, 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 10:17 AM by Attackcoog.)
12-06-2017 10:16 AM
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Post: #35
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
Denise Dodd is unusual. She’s the queen of straw men arguments. She seems to be loyal to ESPN. She hates the AAC almost as much as McMurphy.
12-06-2017 10:34 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #36
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 10:16 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.

I think 8 is more than enough. The 5 P5 champs and the top G5 would be acceptable. When you add in the top two non-champs, you then eliminate any chance that the top 2 schools could possibly be left out of the playoffs. I think that model is not too big—not too small—and minimizes the subjective influence of the committee while guaranteeing that the top two teams can’t be left out due to a CCG upset. It may not be the perfect model, but it’s darn close, 04-cheers

I disagree with that. We've seen both in the NFL playoffs and the NCAA hoops tourney that in recent years, teams that were ranked/seeded outside the top 8 have won the title.

So if we have 8 teams, we can't have a G5 auto-bid, that trades off too much predictive power for diversity/inclusion.
12-06-2017 10:41 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 10:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 10:16 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.

I think 8 is more than enough. The 5 P5 champs and the top G5 would be acceptable. When you add in the top two non-champs, you then eliminate any chance that the top 2 schools could possibly be left out of the playoffs. I think that model is not too big—not too small—and minimizes the subjective influence of the committee while guaranteeing that the top two teams can’t be left out due to a CCG upset. It may not be the perfect model, but it’s darn close, 04-cheers

I disagree with that. We've seen both in the NFL playoffs and the NCAA hoops tourney that in recent years, teams that were ranked/seeded outside the top 8 have won the title.

So if we have 8 teams, we can't have a G5 auto-bid, that trades off too much predictive power for diversity/inclusion.

Quo,
Can’t you throw a bone to the g5? One of your teams—SFU—is a member.
12-06-2017 10:43 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.
There is. The three service academies have done their own homework and have concluded that playing against the larger players in the P5 and top G5 schools is not sustainable for their athletes if those schools comprise the majority of their annual schedules. The average 80lbs of weight they give up across the O & D lines has significantly raised their number of injuries.
12-06-2017 11:09 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 11:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.
There is. The three service academies have done their own homework and have concluded that playing against the larger players in the P5 and top G5 schools is not sustainable for their athletes if those schools comprise the majority of their annual schedules. The average 80lbs of weight they give up across the O & D lines has significantly raised their number of injuries.

Then they should drop to FCS, or sit out the playoffs.
12-06-2017 11:31 AM
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RE: Never thought I ever agree with Dennis Dodd
(12-06-2017 11:31 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 11:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  health concerns issue is totally bogus. 4 of the 8 play just one game just like now. 4 play 2 games like 2 do now. Only 2 teams play 1 extra game. Bottom line is nothing changes for 126 of the 130 BCS schools.

I guess there should be data on whether there are more injuries in FBS or FCS? If, because FBS athletes are bigger/faster/stronger than FCS athletes, injuries are more frequent in FBS, then that would support the notion that a 16 or 24 team playoff isn't a good idea from a health POV for FBS.

If not, then not.
There is. The three service academies have done their own homework and have concluded that playing against the larger players in the P5 and top G5 schools is not sustainable for their athletes if those schools comprise the majority of their annual schedules. The average 80lbs of weight they give up across the O & D lines has significantly raised their number of injuries.

Then they should drop to FCS, or sit out the playoffs.

I think they will be in the FCS some day. But it's probably a point of contention with the old guys and new commandants. The younger leadership sees it as counterproductive to the mission of the school to play in the G5/P5 in as much as they are heavily invested in the cadets who play and when they suffer a "career" ending injury that investment is lost. The objective remains producing career military officers. They see sports, especially football as being good for the development of character under pressure and leadership. But their height and weight restrictions put them at a severe disadvantage in the days of 6'7'' 350lb defensive ends.
12-06-2017 12:32 PM
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