(10-29-2017 06:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 05:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing- the NFL is NEVER moving any of it's playoff games. Not to have 1 on Saturday and 3 on Sunday. They want 2/2 and get to have both days.

That is an issue. But then there are 3 time slots.

not to the NFL. They do not and will not accept a weekend day with only 1 slot.

You whiffed. They want 2 and 2. That means there is a 3rd available for the NCAA.

Long-term, it is much easier (and more lucrative) to condense the P5 into the P4 than it would be to expand the CFP into 8-teams.

Going to an 8-team playoff expands the season by another week, which would mean the champion and runner-up would be playing in 16 games per year (which is the exact same as the NFL). The P5 also would not want to remove a potential home game from their schedule either, so it would definitely look like the season would need to be extended.

Condensing the P5 into the P4 allows the CCG to be a de-facto quarterfinal, which would then allow a Final Four and a NCG.

(10-29-2017 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 05:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing- the NFL is NEVER moving any of it's playoff games. Not to have 1 on Saturday and 3 on Sunday. They want 2/2 and get to have both days.

That is an issue. But then there are 3 time slots.

not to the NFL. They do not and will not accept a weekend day with only 1 slot.

You whiffed. They want 2 and 2. That means there is a 3rd available for the NCAA.

but need 2 slots. They want both games to be on the same day for competitive fairness.

This type of controversy is exactly why we might see a 6 team playoff.
There is a contract in place for three access bowls...right?
Two schools of thought:
1-Controversy give the national talking heads something to discuss to hype the college football playoffs (supports a 6 game playoff).
2-Conference networks will absorb the controversy at the conference level to provide content for the networks

My bet is that there will be no champions only.

(10-29-2017 06:39 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Long-term, it is much easier (and more lucrative) to condense the P5 into the P4 than it would be to expand the CFP into 8-teams.

Going to an 8-team playoff expands the season by another week, which would mean the champion and runner-up would be playing in 16 games per year (which is the exact same as the NFL). The P5 also would not want to remove a potential home game from their schedule either, so it would definitely look like the season would need to be extended.

Condensing the P5 into the P4 allows the CCG to be a de-facto quarterfinal, which would then allow a Final Four and a NCG.

Good points there, and I agree about the P4 concept. The challenge is establishing the P4. So there is a sacrifice conference (B12?) and re-assigning a majority of those schools. Not so easily done, though.

I favor the P5 actually establishing a limit on conference size, 16 maximum. That could be stabalizing. However, since colleges are somewhat fluid in enrollments, resources, and other measures, there needs to be a mechanism for upward mobility and re-configurations.

(10-29-2017 04:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  oh, and while you spew all the black helicopter crap- the committee in 3 years has had absolutely shown none of it in their final ratings. In all 3 years- the committee took the 4 best teams.

What their final rankings did show, and what I believe to be one of the purposes of the human committee, is a severe bias against the G5 rep.

There are 8 computer polls that picked all 4 playoff teams correctly all 3 years. Plus picked the G5 rep correctly all 3 years. Here's where the G5 rep finished in the "Computer Committee" vs. the human committee

Western Mich = 11 vs 15 (penalized 4 spots)
Houston = 10 vs 18 (penalized 8 spots)
Boise = 13 vs 20 (penalized 7 spots)

Hard to finish in the Top 4 when you are starting with a handicap penalty of 6.3 spots on average.

One other thing: the human committee is 0 for 3 in the #1 seed winning the title. The Computer Committee is batting 50% (it had Clemson and Bama tied last year, and correctly picked Bama in 2015).

Several of these computer polls were previously used in the BCS poll. The human committee is superfluous, and biased. It needs to go.

For more, see https://cfcomputercommittee.tumblr.com

(10-29-2017 03:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Per McMurphy


McMurphy‏Verified account @Brett_McMurphy 21h21 hours ago
More
Pac-12 & Big 12 have recommended @CFBPlayoff expands to 8 teams this year, including each Power 5 champion

Well you can't change the playoff halfway through the season so I doubt they said that. maybe they would like a change moving forward but then it goes into TV contracts and a negotiation with the G5. The G5 would push for the highest rated G5 champ to make the playoff.

(10-29-2017 03:32 PM)XLance Wrote:  If the Big 12 is to survive and be able to participate in the playoffs it will have to expand.
If they go to 14, I would be looking at: Cincinnati, Louisville (yes, Louisville), Houston and Memphis.

Cincy, Memphis, BYU and CSU

(10-29-2017 05:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Another way is to play the four quarterfinals one after another on January 1 starting at noon ET -- which would be the best day of college football ever, by the way, if the powers that be are listening -- followed by the semifinals a week or so later. The semifinals and the final, like the current final, would have to be played on Monday or another weeknight to avoid competing with the NFL playoffs. In that scenario, the bowls might not want to host a semifinal, because then you're trying to sell tickets to fans who probably just spent big bucks traveling to another game a week earlier, you have to wait until after the quarterfinals to sell to those fans, and your game is on a weeknight after the holidays are over.

QFs would have to be campus sites if they play on Xmas week. You can't do three travel weeks back to back and sell tickets. Just not going to happen. Otherwise you ban CCGs and have your sites at Atlanta, JerryWorld, LAR/LAC new stadium, and Miami/TB/Carolina first Saturday of December.

Far as the teams this year, I see UGA sliding into the three hole if they lose a close one in the CCG. Bama has a quality FSU week 1 win, but they may be less likely to stay in the top 4 if they drop UGA. OSU and ND win out, it will be:

1. Bama
2. ND
3. UGA
4. Clemson/OSU/OU

Even if OSU beats Wisconsin, it will need a 59-0 type of performance in the title game to pass Clemson or OU based on their performance last year against Clemson and the loss to OU this year. I think you go with Clemson if they can blow some teams out down the stretch, but OU would have a damn good case if they can somehow win the remainder.

You could also fade UGA and take both OU and Clemson. I still think Clemson is strong given those couple of SEC opponents on the schedule.

Long term I see OU and UT in the B1G West to buff up that division, or UT will join ND in the ACC full time and B1G will take Kansas. PAC could take Tech, OSU, KSU, and maybe Houston or ISU for 16. P4 CC's only in that scenario with a new top subdivision.

(10-29-2017 04:06 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  It seems it was only a matter of time before a couple or more conferences would start this CFP expansion. Especially with the Big 12 surviving and not going to a P4.

As long as the G5 gets a spot in the playoff, I'm on board. Have to wonder though if there is autobids to an 8 team playoff if ND rethinks of joining the ACC as a full football member.

Problem is that one year, both TCU and Boise State went unbeaten. Both were in the top 5. How are they gonna be left out if two teams from a G5 that are unbeaten?

(10-29-2017 07:35 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 04:06 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  It seems it was only a matter of time before a couple or more conferences would start this CFP expansion. Especially with the Big 12 surviving and not going to a P4.

As long as the G5 gets a spot in the playoff, I'm on board. Have to wonder though if there is autobids to an 8 team playoff if ND rethinks of joining the ACC as a full football member.

Problem is that one year, both TCU and Boise State went unbeaten. Both were in the top 5. How are they gonna be left out if two teams from a G5 that are unbeaten?

The G5 conferences have been decimated to such a degree by P5 poaching that they don't have the strength of schedule collectively to match any resume of most one loss P5s. So if UCF and Boise went undefeated, it wouldn't be a controversy given how weak the respective conferences are compared to before.

(10-29-2017 07:09 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:39 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Long-term, it is much easier (and more lucrative) to condense the P5 into the P4 than it would be to expand the CFP into 8-teams.

Going to an 8-team playoff expands the season by another week, which would mean the champion and runner-up would be playing in 16 games per year (which is the exact same as the NFL). The P5 also would not want to remove a potential home game from their schedule either, so it would definitely look like the season would need to be extended.

Condensing the P5 into the P4 allows the CCG to be a de-facto quarterfinal, which would then allow a Final Four and a NCG.

Good points there, and I agree about the P4 concept. The challenge is establishing the P4. So there is a sacrifice conference (B12?) and re-assigning a majority of those schools. Not so easily done, though.

I favor the P5 actually establishing a limit on conference size, 16 maximum. That could be stabalizing. However, since colleges are somewhat fluid in enrollments, resources, and other measures, there needs to be a mechanism for upward mobility and re-configurations.

If UT is removed from the B12, it would become destabilized which would likely lead to the formation of a P4. OU probably finds a P4 home, but I'm not sure about the rest of the B12—especially when considering more content will be streamed in the future....

(10-29-2017 06:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 05:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing- the NFL is NEVER moving any of it's playoff games. Not to have 1 on Saturday and 3 on Sunday. They want 2/2 and get to have both days.

That is an issue. But then there are 3 time slots.

not to the NFL. They do not and will not accept a weekend day with only 1 slot.

You whiffed. They want 2 and 2. That means there is a 3rd available for the NCAA.

but need 2 slots. They want both games to be on the same day for competitive fairness.

They will have to compromise on that. Basketball doesn't have the same day.

(10-29-2017 07:25 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 05:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Another way is to play the four quarterfinals one after another on January 1 starting at noon ET -- which would be the best day of college football ever, by the way, if the powers that be are listening -- followed by the semifinals a week or so later. The semifinals and the final, like the current final, would have to be played on Monday or another weeknight to avoid competing with the NFL playoffs. In that scenario, the bowls might not want to host a semifinal, because then you're trying to sell tickets to fans who probably just spent big bucks traveling to another game a week earlier, you have to wait until after the quarterfinals to sell to those fans, and your game is on a weeknight after the holidays are over.

QFs would have to be campus sites if they play on Xmas week. You can't do three travel weeks back to back and sell tickets. Just not going to happen. Otherwise you ban CCGs and have your sites at Atlanta, JerryWorld, LAR/LAC new stadium, and Miami/TB/Carolina first Saturday of December.

Far as the teams this year, I see UGA sliding into the three hole if they lose a close one in the CCG. Bama has a quality FSU week 1 win, but they may be less likely to stay in the top 4 if they drop UGA. OSU and ND win out, it will be:

1. Bama
2. ND
3. UGA
4. Clemson/OSU/OU

Even if OSU beats Wisconsin, it will need a 59-0 type of performance in the title game to pass Clemson or OU based on their performance last year against Clemson and the loss to OU this year. I think you go with Clemson if they can blow some teams out down the stretch, but OU would have a damn good case if they can somehow win the remainder.

You could also fade UGA and take both OU and Clemson. I still think Clemson is strong given those couple of SEC opponents on the schedule.

Long term I see OU and UT in the B1G West to buff up that division, or UT will join ND in the ACC full time and B1G will take Kansas. PAC could take Tech, OSU, KSU, and maybe Houston or ISU for 16. P4 CC's only in that scenario with a new top subdivision.

Its a made for TV show. They will sell tickets locally. Semi-finals will have difficulties with attendance. NYD and the final will do fine.

Or you could solve almost all the problems by having home sites in mid-December and not tying to the bowls.

But they are too tied to the bowl system. At least for now.

(10-29-2017 08:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 06:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  That is an issue. But then there are 3 time slots.

not to the NFL. They do not and will not accept a weekend day with only 1 slot.

You whiffed. They want 2 and 2. That means there is a 3rd available for the NCAA.

but need 2 slots. They want both games to be on the same day for competitive fairness.

They will have to compromise on that. Basketball doesn't have the same day.

Football is a LOT more grueling than basketball is. That's something that we've seen in the comments that they said expressly had to happen.

Honestly, if this is shot down by the other P5 leagues, the Texahoma 4 will soon be in the new Pac-16, but I don't believe the four conference winners will automatically be the semifinalists. That would render the OOC portion of the schedule meaningless, leave out a somewhat strong remaining Big 12, and could result in the occasional 9-4 or 10-3 team in the CFP.

The Big 12 will probably go to 12 or 14 in order to have 20 conference basketball games and get as big as the P4 leagues by adding
UConn, Cincy, BYU (if they get over the P thing), Houston, UCF, USF, SMU, and Memphis.
That would leave the American with just Temple, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy in football and WSU in basketball. Ouch.

(10-29-2017 09:00 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Honestly, if this is shot down by the other P5 leagues, the Texahoma 4 will soon be in the new Pac-16, but I don't believe the four conference winners will automatically be the semifinalists. That would render the OOC portion of the schedule meaningless, leave out a somewhat strong remaining Big 12, and could result in the occasional 9-4 or 10-3 team in the CFP.

The Big 12 will probably go to 12 or 14 in order to have 20 conference basketball games and get as big as the P4 leagues by adding
UConn, Cincy, BYU (if they get over the P thing), Houston, UCF, USF, SMU, and Memphis.
That would leave the American with just Temple, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy in football and WSU in basketball. Ouch.

You are definitely thinking this out, and if there were only 4 teams in the playoffs I would have to agree with you. However, an 8-team field with 3 at-large bids would give value back to those OOC games, IMO.

(10-29-2017 09:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 09:00 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Honestly, if this is shot down by the other P5 leagues, the Texahoma 4 will soon be in the new Pac-16, but I don't believe the four conference winners will automatically be the semifinalists. That would render the OOC portion of the schedule meaningless, leave out a somewhat strong remaining Big 12, and could result in the occasional 9-4 or 10-3 team in the CFP.

The Big 12 will probably go to 12 or 14 in order to have 20 conference basketball games and get as big as the P4 leagues by adding
UConn, Cincy, BYU (if they get over the P thing), Houston, UCF, USF, SMU, and Memphis.
That would leave the American with just Temple, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy in football and WSU in basketball. Ouch.

You are definitely thinking this out, and if there were only 4 teams in the playoffs I would have to agree with you. However, an 8-team field with 3 at-large bids would give value back to those OOC games, IMO.

Nobody wants a 16 game schedule. Nobody wants to extend the season another week. What have the players to gain by it? Injuries? We were lucky to get the plus 1. If there is further expansion there will naturally be fewer OOC games and the only way to create a situation where the players can win it on the field without having their fate decided by a danged committee is to make the conference champions their representative (earned on the field) for a slot in the CFP.

Expansion to 6 or 8 playoff slots is a non starter. If we go back to conferences of 10 and play a round robin and eschew the money of the CCG, which the conferences love, then we could have an 8 team playoff with 8 conferences of 10 schools each with no CCG and we could do so without extending the season.

But we aren't going back in time. There will be further consolidation for a number of reasons not the least of which is better collective bargaining as the cash bubble pops for sports rights.

The notion that it can be other is not reflective of thought at all. It is reflective of wishes.

(10-29-2017 09:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 09:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-29-2017 09:00 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Honestly, if this is shot down by the other P5 leagues, the Texahoma 4 will soon be in the new Pac-16, but I don't believe the four conference winners will automatically be the semifinalists. That would render the OOC portion of the schedule meaningless, leave out a somewhat strong remaining Big 12, and could result in the occasional 9-4 or 10-3 team in the CFP.

The Big 12 will probably go to 12 or 14 in order to have 20 conference basketball games and get as big as the P4 leagues by adding
UConn, Cincy, BYU (if they get over the P thing), Houston, UCF, USF, SMU, and Memphis.
That would leave the American with just Temple, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy in football and WSU in basketball. Ouch.

You are definitely thinking this out, and if there were only 4 teams in the playoffs I would have to agree with you. However, an 8-team field with 3 at-large bids would give value back to those OOC games, IMO.

Nobody wants a 16 game schedule. Nobody wants to extend the season another week. What have the players to gain by it? Injuries? We were lucky to get the plus 1. If there is further expansion there will naturally be fewer OOC games and the only way to create a situation where the players can win it on the field without having their fate decided by a danged committee is to make the conference champions their representative (earned on the field) for a slot in the CFP.

Expansion to 6 or 8 playoff slots is a non starter. If we go back to conferences of 10 and play a round robin and eschew the money of the CCG, which the conferences love, then we could have an 8 team playoff with 8 conferences of 10 schools each with no CCG and we could do so without extending the season.

But we aren't going back in time. There will be further consolidation for a number of reasons not the least of which is better collective bargaining as the cash bubble pops for sports rights.

The notion that it can be other is not reflective of thought at all. It is reflective of wishes.

Or you could still have a P4 and a four-team CFP. This doesn't mean that all four teams have to be the four P4 champs. Anti-trust and ND will have a say with your theory.