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RE: #25 UCF Pre-Game Talk
Enquirer article...
Quote:UC Bearcats vs. Central Florida: Scouting report and prediction
Tom Groeschen, tgroeschen@enquirer.com Published 12:42 p.m. ET Oct. 6, 2017 | Updated 12:44 p.m. ET Oct. 6, 2017
The matchup
Cincinnati (2-3, 0-1 AAC East) vs. No. 25 UCF (3-0, 1-0 AAC East)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. at Nippert Stadium (40,000)
TV/Radio: ESPNU/700 WLW-AM
When UC runs
With a run game that ranks 119th nationally, UC fans at least are encouraged by redshirt freshman running back Gerrid Doaks (201 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns) and true freshman RB Michael Warren II (115, 5.5, 1). Senior RB Mike Boone (161, 4.5, 2) returned from injury last week but was held to 17 yards on 5 carries. The offensive line continues to be inconsistent. The going could be rough against UCF, which allows only 2.9 yards per rush (14th-best nationally).
When UC passes
Wide receiver Devin Gray has nine catches for 127 yards and a TD over his last two games. quarterback Hayden Moore has a 9-4 touchdown-interception ratio but has completed only 52.5 percent of his passes. UC receivers still sometimes have trouble getting separation, and Moore's occasional overthrows do not help. The Bearcats may face trouble on obvious passing downs. UC ranks 99th nationally in third-down conversion percentage, while UCF is No. 4 nationally in third-down conversion percentage defense.
When UCF runs
Knights sophomore RB Adrian Killins (5-8, 158) is dangerous, with a 96-yard TD run in a 40-13 win over Memphis last week. Sophomore QB Mackenzie Milton (5-11, 185) also is a major threat, averaging 9.3 yards per rush. The Knights average a healthy 5.6 yards per rush, which ranks 18th nationally. The UC defense held Marshall to just 3.0 yards per carry last week, but the Bearcats still rank just 120th nationally against the run.
When UCF passes
Milton had thrown for 791 yards, with a strong 64.6 percent completion rate. Milton also has eight TD passes and only two interceptions, and he ranks No. 7 nationally in passing efficiency. Sophomore WR Dredrick Snelson (6-0, 206) leads the team with 12 catches. Junior WR Tre'Quan Smith (6-1, 210) has 10 catches, a 17.2-yard average and four TDs. UC was raked for four TD passes last week by Marshall QB Chase Litton. The Bearcats rank 92nd nationally in pass efficiency defense.
Special teams
UCF has a solid kicker in junior Matthew Wright, 29-for-35 on career field goal attempts. UC kicker Josh Pasley is up and down, missing a 26-yard field goal attempt last week. UC punter James Smith has the Bearcats ranked a decent 46th nationally in net punting, much-needed because of UC's below-average offense. UC again ranks low nationally in punt returns (82nd) and kickoff returns (88th), continuing several years of subpar production.
Gresh’s Gameplan: 3 keys to victory
Make something happen early
UC always makes an impressive Nippert Stadium entrance amid smoke, fire and parachutists. Then, things tend to go poorly. UC has been outscored 42-17 in the first quarter this year, and is averaging almost 100 yards less than opponents during that period. With a nationally ranked team coming in, a first-half debacle such as last week's 24-0 deficit to Marshall cannot happen again.
Stop turning it over
After playing turnover-free in a 26-14 opening win over Austin Peay, UC has made eight turnovers in its last four games. UCF is not a team to be making turnovers against. The Knights rank No. 1 nationally in turnover margin at plus-2.33 per game. That included five takeaways last week against previously unbeaten Memphis. The UCF offense has only three turnovers, and UC will need some forced fumbles and/or interceptions to stay in this one.
Contain UCF's running game
UCF ranks No. 16 nationally in rushing offense, with the UC defense No. 120 against the run. The UC numbers are skewed by the school record-worst 569 rushing yards allowed against Navy two weeks ago, but the math still does not bode well. UCF is averaging three rushing touchdowns per game, and UC must hold the Knights at or below that number.
Number of note
3 - UCF is one of only three teams ranked in the Top 10 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The Knights are No. 7 in both categories, averaging 46.3 points and allowing 13.3 per game.
Prediction
UCF 33, Cincinnati 24
After last week's 38-21 loss to Marshall, some naturally expect things to be worse against UCF. Beating a ranked team is never easy, and almost every key statistical number favors UCF. We do see UC covering the Las Vegas spread of 17 points, a large number against a home team. Flawless football is needed for any chance of an upset.
TEAM AVERAGES
Points for, points against, total offense, rushing offense, passing offense, total defense, rushing defense, passing defense
UC: 22.8, 29.4, 319.4, 100.0, 219.4, 401.2, 237.8, 163.4
UCF: 46.3, 13.3, 539.3, 249.3, 290.0, 309.3, 83.7, 225.7.
UCF Game Preview
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