After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

(09-17-2017 12:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

You've got USF too low, if the selection was made today, there's no way we'd finish in fourth place for it, our poll leadership reflects thinking about who is best among the G5.

Still, longer run I agree we are vulnerable to teams like SDSU and Toledo with stronger OOC schedules.

If it was strictly based on works, Boise St would've been in a while ago. I think San Diego St has a lot going for it and I think they'd be a good addition, but I don't think they get the call. My top 5, based on all considered factors would be: 1) Cincinnati, 2) Connecticut, 3) South Florida, 4) Houston, 5) Central Florida

(09-17-2017 12:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

There are no golden tickets left.

The P5 has no need to issue any more. They are now working on further distancing their conferences from the G5. Yes, the P5s lose a few every season, but I'm sure more unfavorable rule changes are coming.

Once again, the American will beat up on each other, and a team like San Diego St will dominate a horribly weak MWC and claim the golden ticket.

Like Western Mich last year, who had no business representing the G5.

Speaking of overrated, I don't know about the whole Pac 12, but Stanford and USC are frauds.

Quote:Like Western Mich last year, who had no business representing the G5.

I disagree. It's not just that the AAC beat up on each other -- you had Temple win it all. Temple who never won the MAC East, and the previous year got whipped by Toledo in their bowl. So yeah, an undefeated WMU team -- beating a P5 bowl-bound team + another P5 low-end team, but coming away unscathed, speaks for itself. It doesn't mean over a 1L AAC team with a better SoS, but too many losses adds up. 3L Temple had no business going over WMU, plain and simple (and losing to Wake Forest in bowl game capitalized on that).

That said -- SDSU's in the driver's seat right now, but they have to play NIU + @AF + Boise (twice?), after winning @AZ-State + Stanford. But being in the driver's seat now doesn't mean much. Just look at the previous years, at this point in the season. It's really who's pretty much lost their chance and who hasn't.

So many tough games to be played, where teams thought to be mediocre could be Really Good, and teams thought to be Really Good won't be. It'll take entering the last 3rd of the season to really see what's up.

And going undefeated in the MAC or MW, even though it's not as tough as AAC, still carries weight... but my guess is there will be No undefeated team by the end of the regular season... and this year, unlike last year, there'll be an actual controversy.

(09-17-2017 02:25 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(09-17-2017 12:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

There are no golden tickets left.

The P5 has no need to issue any more. They are now working on further distancing their conferences from the G5. Yes, the P5s lose a few every season, but I'm sure more unfavorable rule changes are coming.

The "Golden Ticket" he is referring to is the 2017 G5 Access Bowl slot.

(09-17-2017 01:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-17-2017 12:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

You've got USF too low, if the selection was made today, there's no way we'd finish in fourth place for it, our poll leadership reflects thinking about who is best among the G5.

Still, longer run I agree we are vulnerable to teams like SDSU and Toledo with stronger OOC schedules.

It is not a slam on USF but AP/Coaches poll has nothing to do with CFP. Based on the first two performances and Illinois being just above Kansas and Rutgers as P5 I believe they are well behind SDSU and Memphis. First using the CFP poll "eye test" that was created for FSU, I think USF hurt themselves with their OOC performance. This has nothing to do with conference strength but who is the best looking G5 champion.

(09-17-2017 02:50 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Like Western Mich last year, who had no business representing the G5.

I disagree. It's not just that the AAC beat up on each other -- you had Temple win it all. Temple who never won the MAC East, and the previous year got whipped by Toledo in their bowl. So yeah, an undefeated WMU team -- beating a P5 bowl-bound team + another P5 low-end team, but coming away unscathed, speaks for itself. It doesn't mean over a 1L AAC team with a better SoS, but too many losses adds up. 3L Temple had no business going over WMU, plain and simple (and losing to Wake Forest in bowl game capitalized on that).

That said -- SDSU's in the driver's seat right now, but they have to play NIU + @AF + Boise (twice?), after winning @AZ-State + Stanford. But being in the driver's seat now doesn't mean much. Just look at the previous years, at this point in the season. It's really who's pretty much lost their chance and who hasn't.

So many tough games to be played, where teams thought to be mediocre could be Really Good, and teams thought to be Really Good won't be. It'll take entering the last 3rd of the season to really see what's up.

And going undefeated in the MAC or MW, even though it's not as tough as AAC, still carries weight... but my guess is there will be No undefeated team by the end of the regular season... and this year, unlike last year, there'll be an actual controversy.

Im thnking there is wayyyy too much season left to start handing out trophies. I mean we are talking SOS already? The SOS factor is going to change as the season progresses. Teams like Stanford could end up not being all that good---weakening the value of that win. Additionally, the AAC looks like it may end up with several ranked teams before its all over. That might give the AAC champ the opportunity to chalk up 1 or 2 wins over ranked teams during the conference race that will give them a big bump late in the season.

Point is--its still very early and there are lots of twists and turns to come---not to mention the field house leader (USF) hasnt lost yet and blew out a P5 team this weekend.

(09-17-2017 02:56 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-17-2017 01:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-17-2017 12:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After three weeks, I think we are getting a good idea of which teams are contention for the Golden Ticket. Feel free to put your priority but please try and give the reason. Not because AP/Coaches say so. Try and use CFP "logic"

After week three my standings
1. SDSU win over Stanford has them at this slot. Strong OOC schedule
2. Memphis win over UCLA. Almost as impressive but questions how does UCLA look going forward.
3. Toledo - Next week vs Miami will really tell if they belong.
4. USF - Still undefeated
5. Boise - Impressive loss to rank team.

Teams just a bit outside
Houston and UTSA, yes UTSA (Until they lose, their OOC is no worse than USF's)

Look forward to others selections.

You've got USF too low, if the selection was made today, there's no way we'd finish in fourth place for it, our poll leadership reflects thinking about who is best among the G5.

Still, longer run I agree we are vulnerable to teams like SDSU and Toledo with stronger OOC schedules.

It is not a slam on USF but AP/Coaches poll has nothing to do with CFP. Based on the first two performances and Illinois being just above Kansas and Rutgers as P5 I believe they are well behind SDSU and Memphis. First using the CFP poll "eye test" that was created for FSU, I think USF hurt themselves with their OOC performance. This has nothing to do with conference strength but who is the best looking G5 champion.

Really? It looked to me like USF more than passed the eye test. Their athletes ran circles around Illinois---and that was after overcoming limited practice due to a hurricane---not to mention a new coach including new offensive and defensive systems. Lets see how the season plays out. I think they look like a good team thats only going to gain strength as the season progresses.

By the way, todays coaches poll has SDSU at #25 and USF at #17. So, even after this weekend, the coaches poll indicates a significant preference for USF.

(09-17-2017 02:15 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If it was strictly based on works, Boise St would've been in a while ago. I think San Diego St has a lot going for it and I think they'd be a good addition, but I don't think they get the call. My top 5, based on all considered factors would be: 1) Cincinnati, 2) Connecticut, 3) South Florida, 4) Houston, 5) Central Florida

What kind of football have you been watching?

AC,
Kinda of surprised, you have a strong knowledge and history base. CFP committee does not use the AP or Coaches Poll. They know their poll superseeds all. I am not saying USF is not in contention but compared to SDSU and Memphis, I would not put them ahead of them at this point based on how the CFP tendencies have gone. You just can't ignore their first two games. USF probably needs to go undefeated, a one loss SDSU and Boise would probably get in ahead of them if they lose.

Right now, just my opinion. The problem again for USF, they don't play that many good teams in the AAC, Houston and possibly UCF. I actually think Houston has a better team than USF, if it was UH home game, I think you would win. I would not be surprised if you beat USF at their place. Right now, USF should be huge Houston fans, you all are probably the only true quality opponent that they have left on their schedule. Just don't see CFP giving them benefit of the doubt with their schedule.

You are correct that the CFP is different than the AP and coaches poll, but USF is 8 spots ahead of SDSU in coaches poll...that is a significant difference and not a minor one. In the AP it's closer. The CFP is made up of some former coaches, so will it more closely mirror the coaches or AP?

It's way to early to get worked up about this. So many things can and will happen. SDSU better hope they can get by AFA and Boise twice, which I don't see happening.

(09-17-2017 05:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  AC,
Kinda of surprised, you have a strong knowledge and history base. CFP committee does not use the AP or Coaches Poll. They know their poll superseeds all. I am not saying USF is not in contention but compared to SDSU and Memphis, I would not put them ahead of them at this point based on how the CFP tendencies have gone. You just can't ignore their first two games. USF probably needs to go undefeated, a one loss SDSU and Boise would probably get in ahead of them if they lose.

Right now, just my opinion. The problem again for USF, they don't play that many good teams in the AAC, Houston and possibly UCF. I actually think Houston has a better team than USF, if it was UH home game, I think you would win. I would not be surprised if you beat USF at their place. Right now, USF should be huge Houston fans, you all are probably the only true quality opponent that they have left on their schedule. Just don't see CFP giving them benefit of the doubt with their schedule.

You are forgetting a potential Memphis in CG, which USF doesn't play in regular season.

1.San Diego State
2.Boise State
3.Houston
4.Toledo
5.Northern Illinois

Those are my top 5 with their impressive wins. Boise State's lone lost was to a ranked team. USF played nobody. Illinois is not a surprise team to beat. UTSA, Middle Tennessee State and Air Force are close by with their strength.

(09-17-2017 09:15 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.San Diego State
2.Boise State
3.Houston
4.Toledo
5.Northern Illinois

Those are my top 5 with their impressive wins. Boise State's lone lost was to a ranked team. USF played nobody. Illinois is not a surprise team to beat. UTSA, Middle Tennessee State and Air Force are close by with their strength.

You can't put teams that have lost games ahead of undefeated teams at this point. Maybe at the end of the year. NIU lost to a bad BC team that is 1-2 and got routed in their 2 losses. The end.

(09-17-2017 05:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  AC,
Kinda of surprised, you have a strong knowledge and history base. CFP committee does not use the AP or Coaches Poll. They know their poll superseeds all. I am not saying USF is not in contention but compared to SDSU and Memphis, I would not put them ahead of them at this point based on how the CFP tendencies have gone. You just can't ignore their first two games. USF probably needs to go undefeated, a one loss SDSU and Boise would probably get in ahead of them if they lose.

Right now, just my opinion. The problem again for USF, they don't play that many good teams in the AAC, Houston and possibly UCF. I actually think Houston has a better team than USF, if it was UH home game, I think you would win. I would not be surprised if you beat USF at their place. Right now, USF should be huge Houston fans, you all are probably the only true quality opponent that they have left on their schedule. Just don't see CFP giving them benefit of the doubt with their schedule.

? I never said the coaches poll overides or is even part of the BCS poll. That said, the 2 polls don't tend to be all that different. We wont have a BCS poll for weeks, so until then---these polls are all we have to use as a guide.

(09-17-2017 09:15 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  1.San Diego State
2.Boise State
3.Houston
4.Toledo
5.Northern Illinois

Those are my top 5 with their impressive wins. Boise State's lone lost was to a ranked team. USF played nobody. Illinois is not a surprise team to beat. UTSA, Middle Tennessee State and Air Force are close by with their strength.

lol...Last year a team that played "nobody" won the G5 access bowl slot. USF will play a much tougher schedule than last years winner.

I'll leave you with this thought----At this point in the 2016 season, Houston had the best win of any G5. In fact, Houston ended the season with the TWO best wins of any team in the G5....and they didnt win the G5 access bowl slot----hell, Houston didnt even win its division. Lots of games left to play gentlemen.

(09-18-2017 01:26 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  ? I never said the coaches poll overides or is even part of the BCS poll. That said, the 2 polls don't tend to be all that different.

But if that is because the coaches poll starts moving toward the committee rankings once they start to be released, then the CFP ranking would remain as the independent factor.

Any team that's still undefeated is still in the running. This topic is a little silly 3 weeks into the season.