(08-22-2017 12:31 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 11:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont think any of those schools is leaving as long as Texas remains in the Big12.

You are almost completely alone in that opinion. Any B12 school --not named Texas-- would leave the B12 if the SEC or B1G offered a slot. That is not even open for debate, that is fact. And there is a lot of interest by the SEC in OU & OK State as a pair, and a lot of interest in the B1G in both OU and KU either together or independently. These schools would jump for their own future, regardless of Texas' preference.

Texas is not going to be in a conference with Cincinnati and Houston, but without Oklahoma. That will push them out the exit. And they can go to any other power conference, or even have a Notre Dame like deal with any conference. With the P12 they can drag a friend with them (TCU), possibly two (Tech).

It's a complete unknown today, so many possible moves. But it looks almost inevitable somebody leaves in 2024, and that's probably OU, setting off a chain reaction. When that happens the B12 will lose more schools, possibly just Texas joining OU, but more like a couple more schools go as well. And that means back fills from the AAC.

It is an unknown. But an unknown every school is preparing for and angling for.

Explain to me how splitting the pie 2 more ways while adding a state with a population of less than 4 million will increase the earnings of the existing 14 SEC teams. Now, if you're adding Oklahoma and W Virginia---that maybe makes more economic sense. Oklahoma and Kansas----that makes more sense. Adding 2 from Oklahoma doesn't make economic sense.

Here is the thing---as long as Texas and Oklahoma are in the B12 it remains viable and it remains the best vehicle for either teams national championship hopes. Do either really want to be in a SEC West slugging it out with LSU, Bama, etc. despite all thier early success--- Thats been a tough road for Texas A&M.

I think when all is said and done---There is a very good chance the Big12 will end up doing nothing in 2024 other than signing a fat new tv deal.

(08-22-2017 12:31 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 11:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont think any of those schools is leaving as long as Texas remains in the Big12.

You are almost completely alone in that opinion. Any B12 school --not named Texas-- would leave the B12 if the SEC or B1G offered a slot. That is not even open for debate, that is fact. And there is a lot of interest by the SEC in OU & OK State as a pair, and a lot of interest in the B1G in both OU and KU either together or independently. These schools would jump for their own future, regardless of Texas' preference.

Texas is not going to be in a conference with Cincinnati and Houston, but without Oklahoma. That will push them out the exit. And they can go to any other power conference, or even have a Notre Dame like deal with any conference. With the P12 they can drag a friend with them (TCU), possibly two (Tech).

It's a complete unknown today, so many possible moves. But it looks almost inevitable somebody leaves in 2024, and that's probably OU, setting off a chain reaction. When that happens the B12 will lose more schools, possibly just Texas joining OU, but more like a couple more schools go as well. And that means back fills from the AAC.

It is an unknown. But an unknown every school is preparing for and angling for.

History says that the conventional wisdom is usually wrong about what the next move is.

There also seems to be a longer "courting" period than people expect.

Some of the deals that were expected and didn't happen, end up happening 10 and 20 years down the road.

Colorado and Pac-10 got close to a deal and it didn't happen then it happened several years later. TAMU and SEC fell apart twice before it happened. Nebraska was turned down twice in the earliest days of the Big 10 and then seemed to be a hot name when Notre Dame to Big 10 fell apart and then finally happened.

At one time, conventional wisdom was that MWC would eventually gut the western side of the WAC leaving the eastern WAC in place and that group would end up owning the league picking the replacements, as it turned out, CUSA took most of the eastern schools and it wasn't until later that MWC raided the WAC.

Right now I think the biggest issue is understanding how to maximize money as the TV business changes.

At one time Nielsen TV markets ruled, then it became more about states and fan bases that would rebel against providers if they didn't provide coverage. The next phase is not settled yet.

If that next phase causes inefficiencies then wholesale realignment will happen again.

I can't believe JMU is still using this line about academics in the Sun Belt not being good enough for them. App and JMU have been basically equal in every major college rating for years, and GS isn't too far behind these days. Neither team has suffered in the Sun Belt due to those academic standards. That is nothing more than an excuse to try to appease their fan base after turning down the offer from the SB.

I think it all comes down to the UALR study. SBC has it written that if either UALR or UT-Arlington add football they are in the SBC. Most FCS schools would kill to be in this position. If UALR opts in, either UT-Arlington steps up or SBC may do a football only invite. There is only one independent that could currently fill that 12 spot logically as football only. If that happens, I would have to laugh. The league would have it's Darth Vader.

(08-22-2017 07:21 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Stony Brook should also petition the NCAA for a move up.

As the P5 continues to distance itself from everyone else, there is becoming no "up" to move up to. Schools aren't shifting to FBS to hang around other G5s, they are doing it - in some cases delusionally (see UMass) - to be "associated" with P5s.

The costs and changes to the entire sports program just aren't bearing enough fruit to move from the CAA to G5.

(08-22-2017 02:27 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 07:21 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Stony Brook should also petition the NCAA for a move up.

As the P5 continues to distance itself from everyone else, there is becoming no "up" to move up to. Schools aren't shifting to FBS to hang around other G5s, they are doing it - in some cases delusionally (see UMass) to hang around P5s.

The costs and changes to the entire sports program just aren't bearing enough fruit to move from the CAA to G5.

Your blanket statement is simply just not true. I agree some teams have had a hard time making it in FBS (see UMass) but others have moved up and are doing just fine. My school for example has raised it's profile tremendously in just three short FBS seasons. On top of that we have almost tripled our revenues and all that comes after dominating IAA/FCS for much of our time at that level.

The Great North/South/East/West Conference

JMU
Liberty
Stony Brook
Missouri State
Eastern Kentucky
Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State
North Dakota
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
UMass (FB only)
NMSU (FB only)

(08-22-2017 02:16 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I think it all comes down to the UALR study. SBC has it written that if either UALR or UT-Arlington add football they are in the SBC. Most FCS schools would kill to be in this position. If UALR opts in, either UT-Arlington steps up or SBC may do a football only invite. There is only one independent that could currently fill that 12 spot logically as football only. If that happens, I would have to laugh. The league would have it's Darth Vader.

To be technical, bylaws provide that if you offer a sport the Sun Belt has a championship in, you have to play in the league and if you add a sport that the league has a championship in you are automatically in.

Not UALR or UTA specific but seems rather unlikely it will ever apply to anyone else.

arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

(08-22-2017 04:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

I don't see what so improbable about it. If Texas chooses the Pac (but OU does not) and gets to bring three of its neighbors along, Houston could easily be one of those three.

(08-22-2017 09:45 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The SBC I think is likely to have an opening.

The SBC is becoming more regional for JMU with the Georgia schools, App and Coastal. That would be their division in a 10 team SBC.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G530AZ using CSNbbs mobile app

Who is leaving the Belt and where are they going?

Here's a nasty problem for JMU. The most likely team to leave the Belt (Texas State) would require that teams switch divisions or the Belt replace a team from the West with a team from the West. I suppose they could move Troy to the West and add JMU.

The Belt is reasonably happy now at 10 teams for the time being.

(08-22-2017 04:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 04:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

I don't see what so improbable about it. If Texas chooses the Pac (but OU does not) and gets to bring three of its neighbors along, Houston could easily be one of those three.

Not generally one to agree with Stugray but I agree with him on this. Houston isn't going to the PAC 12 ever. Ever is a long time, yet I firmly stick with it. ECU has the same chance at getting into the ACC. None. I'm glad we are in the AAC together forever!!

At one time Nielsen TV markets ruled, then it became more about states and fan bases that would rebel against providers if they didn't provide coverage. The next phase is not settled yet.

If that next phase causes inefficiencies then wholesale realignment will happen again.
[/quote]

Yours is a great point. Previous realignment moves had considerations of cable companies, tv markets, and footprint expansions away from existing markets. This is changing rapidly as viewership moves fairly steadily from cable to streaming networks. This will have a huge impact on who goes where, but probably won't require states to split apart as they did before.

What if the MAC lost Toledo or Western Michigan? They would be needing EMU more at that point.
[/quote]

Where are Toledo and Western Michigan going?

(08-22-2017 06:07 PM)PK_UToledo Wrote:  What if the MAC lost Toledo or Western Michigan? They would be needing EMU more at that point.

Where are Toledo and Western Michigan going?
[/quote]
I could see the American being interested in Toledo should Cincinnati depart, but Akron, Miami, and Ohio may be just as viable. If the American takes two from the MAC, I would expect Northern Illinois to go before Western Michigan simply for the market grab. NIU would also likely be of more interest to Wichita State as well because the geography resembles Wichita State's former conference, the MVC.

Of course the American could simply exit the Midwest entirely, in which case the MAC is safe, or at worst loses Buffalo. SMU or Houston will be replaced by another school in Texas to placate Navy. The AAC would likely add FAU and/or FIU to maintain a presence in Florida.

(08-22-2017 05:51 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 04:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 04:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

I don't see what so improbable about it. If Texas chooses the Pac (but OU does not) and gets to bring three of its neighbors along, Houston could easily be one of those three.

Not generally one to agree with Stugray but I agree with him on this. Houston isn't going to the PAC 12 ever. Ever is a long time, yet I firmly stick with it. ECU has the same chance at getting into the ACC. None. I'm glad we are in the AAC together forever!!

If UT goes to the Pac, isn't it likely they'll have tagalongs? And if OU isn't with them, there could be up to 3 Texas tagalongs. That'd be TT and TCU at least, with the final spot going to Houston over Baylor.

(08-22-2017 11:37 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(08-22-2017 12:31 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 11:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont think any of those schools is leaving as long as Texas remains in the Big12.

You are almost completely alone in that opinion. Any B12 school --not named Texas-- would leave the B12 if the SEC or B1G offered a slot. That is not even open for debate, that is fact. And there is a lot of interest by the SEC in OU & OK State as a pair, and a lot of interest in the B1G in both OU and KU either together or independently. These schools would jump for their own future, regardless of Texas' preference.

Texas is not going to be in a conference with Cincinnati and Houston, but without Oklahoma. That will push them out the exit. And they can go to any other power conference, or even have a Notre Dame like deal with any conference. With the P12 they can drag a friend with them (TCU), possibly two (Tech).

It's a complete unknown today, so many possible moves. But it looks almost inevitable somebody leaves in 2024, and that's probably OU, setting off a chain reaction. When that happens the B12 will lose more schools, possibly just Texas joining OU, but more like a couple more schools go as well. And that means back fills from the AAC.

It is an unknown. But an unknown every school is preparing for and angling for.

History says that the conventional wisdom is usually wrong about what the next move is.

There also seems to be a longer "courting" period than people expect.

Some of the deals that were expected and didn't happen, end up happening 10 and 20 years down the road.

Colorado and Pac-10 got close to a deal and it didn't happen then it happened several years later. TAMU and SEC fell apart twice before it happened. Nebraska was turned down twice in the earliest days of the Big 10 and then seemed to be a hot name when Notre Dame to Big 10 fell apart and then finally happened.

At one time, conventional wisdom was that MWC would eventually gut the western side of the WAC leaving the eastern WAC in place and that group would end up owning the league picking the replacements, as it turned out, CUSA took most of the eastern schools and it wasn't until later that MWC raided the WAC.

Right now I think the biggest issue is understanding how to maximize money as the TV business changes.

At one time Nielsen TV markets ruled, then it became more about states and fan bases that would rebel against providers if they didn't provide coverage. The next phase is not settled yet.

If that next phase causes inefficiencies then wholesale realignment will happen again.

Notre Dame to the B1G happened? That's news to me.

(08-22-2017 04:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

No one in the Big 12 cared that Colorado bolted. Nobody even tried to stop the Buffs. Nebraska was somewhat of a loss to OU, but thanks to the way Big 12 divisions were set up, Oklahoma didn't get to play Nebraska much anyway, so it hurt slightly more than losing Colorado (which was basically like the conference clipping one of its toenails) but more like a paper cut or a scrape.). A&M was a loss, but realistically, nothing could be done to appease the Aggies.(A&M told Texas ditch the LHN or else, to which Texas replied we'll take the 'or else.' A&M either had to back down or make good on its threat, and we know how that went down). Mizzou is an interesting case in that the only thing the Big 12 tried to keep Mizzou was to have Kansas refuse to play them OOC. With A&M gone, Mizzou was getting really scared, and begged the Big Ten to take them. The Big Ten refused, so Mizzou decided to see who would take them, and turned to an old acquaintance, the SEC, who did take them. The Big 12 could have done a lot more to try to keep Missouri, but truthfully, the Big 12 didn't even try. TCU, while a recent add to the Big 12, does have a lot of history with many of its members. As you noted earlier, WVU does not, so you are one for two there. Baylor's situation does not help matters, but I think the Big 12 will be fine.

There are realistically 4 options out there:

1) CUSA
2) MAC
3) SBC
4) Independant

CUSA not looking. Has no takers of current teams to open up slots.
MAC not looking. Has no takers of current teams to open up slots.
SBC doubt they are looking further. Could have takers, but the takers are full.
Can they afford to go independent? Can they generate their own finances to fund a complete FBS schedule? With home games? Does their stadium allow them to do this?

(08-22-2017 04:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  arkstfan, by 2024 that courting period will be over a decade for all the schools in question (well TCU and OK State as tag along schools much less). For Texas and the P12 it goes back to before the formation of the B12. All the leaderships know everything and will have had plenty of time to survey the landscape and make a decision. If anything they need less time than in the past, because so many of the old bonds are broken (CU, Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska .. and the scandal make Baylor broken, while TCU and WVU are relatively recent) that there is not a lot of glue left. The lack of digital network and the LHN (not for sale, and not worth the buyout price) means there wont be one -- this is acid eating away at the bonds. So while your argument has some merit, you discount the courting that has been going on and the weakness of the B12.

Houston fans --attackcoog most prominent and overly hopeful fan-- are banking on the improbability that somehow their school will wind up in a conference with Texas again. But it's not happening, not even 1 in 10,000 chance (attackcoog will no doubt take that to mean, "so you're saying I have a chance"). That "pie" comment of his simply means "nah nah nah, I can't hear you." So be it. He needs to believe, let him believe. Come 2024 he will be in complete shock.

Houston had a legit shot to be in the playoff last year until they took to crapping themselves.

The problem for Houston as I see it is that I don't think it is likely the other 8 in Big XII can leave unless paired with Texas or OU. The only possible exception would be if Big 10 went to 16, then Kansas could go with the right pairing, I just think it is unlikely Mizzou defects and it feels improbable to me that Big 10 could secure a single ACC again, it would have to be at least a pair.

I think it is more likely than not that we are stable in P5 until the picture on TV's next round becomes clearer.