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Dodd on Baylor
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 03:15 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 02:19 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  An SEC plus Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, and West Virginia adds some football and basketball depth.

West: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma. Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Central: LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia

Nice. That to me is the optimal SEC while keeping the conference as compact as possible in terms of both geography and culture.

Cheers,
Neil

While that lineup would be nice purely from a geographical standpoint it has some obstacles to overcome.

First, I'm not sure WVU which has applied twice in the past, offers enough to cover the 43 million that the SEC will have paid out by the end of August this year.

Second, I'm not so sure that the SEC will be calling the shots in this expansion. I think we will be promised enough to take what needs to be placed within our conference.

Third, I'm not so sure that Kansas will or could be a part of that mix, although they would provide a natural rival for Mizzou and some basketball gravitas to go along with Kentucky.

Why? I think the plan at work doesn't belong to the SEC, but rather to ESPN. And that plan focuses on having all of the P schools and top G5 schools in states with a sustained growth pattern.

Alabama: Auburn, Alabama (SEC)
Arkansas: Arkansas (SEC)
Florida: Florida (SEC) Florida State, Miami (ACC), South Florida, Central Florida (AAC)
Georgia: Georgia (SEC) Georgia Tech (ACC)
Kentucky: Kentucky (SEC) Louisville (ACC)
Louisiana: L.S.U. (SEC) Tulane (SEC)
Mississippi: Ole Miss, Mississippi State (SEC)
Missouri: Missouri (SEC)
North Carolina: Duke, U.N.C., N.C. State, Wake Forest (ACC) E.C.U. (AAC)
South Carolina: Clemson (ACC) South Carolina (SEC)
Tennessee: Tennessee, Vanderbilt (SEC) Memphis (AAC)
Virginia: Virginia, Virginia Tech (ACC)

What you won't find there are any FOX properties.

If ESPN holds true to form they will pursue the following:
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Why? Both Texas and Oklahoma have growing states. Between Texas and Oklahoma you account for 79.96% of the total population of the Big 12 states and roughly 65% of the total revenue produced by the Big 12 schools.

ESPN owns Texas A&M (SEC) S.M.U., Houston (AAC) and Tulsa (AAC)

Since nobody will be pursuing Baylor ESPN can control them by sliding them into the AAC. If T.C.U. has no suitors in the PAC and Big 10 they will slide to the AAC as well. ESPN will still hold them both.

Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State could go together to the SEC or could be split between the SEC and ACC.

If ESPN does what it takes to land this product they will control all of the advertising for major college sports from Virginia to Miami and throughout the Southeast and into Texas and Oklahoma without a network rival. With the Texa-homa schools ESPN with A&M in that fold will control the eyes of just over 31 million people at least 3 times per Saturday and as many as 5 times per Saturday. The advertisers would have to pay the higher rate to command those sets. That's a pile of money. And if advertisers want to have their product seen from the Mid Atlantic throughout the Southeast they already have to go through ESPN to get into that college rabid region of the nation.

It is why the ACCN holds good promise, and why the SECN has been so lucrative.

If ESPN picked up Kansas they are not gaining a growth state, but they are fully picking up the Kansas City market. It would be a nice ancillary addition, but hardly a main target. With Virginia Tech and Pitt ESPN doesn't need West Virginia. They have that market covered and how much could a state of 1.88 million really be worth? Probably not 40 million a year.

Iowa State is not exactly a growth area either.

That's why I'm pretty confident that ESPN will do whatever it takes to land Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and little brother status doesn't mean a darned thing in a content driven world where 1 network controls the regional advertising opportunities. Tech and the Pokes just give ESPN another chance to charge for those 31 million people each Saturday and so pay their way in quite nicely with a guarantee of 7 home games a year and rivalry games with Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and L.S.U. to be played. Have any of those schedule Houston or S.M.U. or T.C.U. or Baylor from the AAC and it's another big in state payday.

So ESPN's strategy has been quietly building to the moment of this next realignment. They completely own the marketable product in the growing Southerly states and they have kept a finger in the pies of the Big 10 and PAC. So ESPN maximizes content and revenue in the most rabid college sports markets that still have sustained growth, and they minimize their competitions revenue by sharing the product FOX owns.

As they say at Guinness, "Brilliant!".

So I don't look for Kansas and West Virginia to be very high on ESPN's priority list, and therefore not very high on the SEC and ACC's priorities list either. I do look for Texas and Oklahoma, as was expected, to be top priorities on their list. But surprisingly Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to be there as well for the reasons stated above. If it breaks right T.C.U. may slip in, but most likely will not.

And no, I don't push little brothers except as a way for ESPN to lock up the 4 their model shows they will really want. And the SEC and ACC will do whatever they need to because their paydays will be guaranteed if they do.

So I don't think 18 is out of the question for either the SEC or ACC, but 16 with the right division would be more efficient.

And, asking whether the SEC would take OSU isn't relevant. The only relevant question is does ESPN want them. Look at the map, the exclusivity within Texas/Oklahoma as a region, and look at what ESPN has already quietly accomplished and the answer is "Yes".
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2017 09:56 PM by JRsec.)
07-04-2017 09:49 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Dodd on Baylor
I'm still not convinced a 4th division that voluntarily excluded a bunch of the current FBS Would survive anti trust legislation to begin with. Plus, it's Dennis Dodd. He talks too much to begin with.
07-04-2017 11:38 PM
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Groo Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 08:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out

Dodds is a missouri grad. His opinion on KU is biased at best.
07-05-2017 12:28 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 10:49 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Dodd is only stating the obvious--there is absolutely nothing profound here. Texas and Oklahoma are guaranteed spots in another Power 5 if they want to leave. Kansas has pretty good chances too. Texas Tech and Oklahoma St have modest chances of being able to tag along with their instate rivals. As for the rest--Kansas St, Iowa St, WVU, TCU, and Baylor don't have a whole lot to offer the Power 4.

While the scandals at Baylor have been bad for the Bears' public image it certainly hasn't changed the reality that already existed.

I used to think Baylor's only hope was the ACC. The ACC has a bunch of private schools, including a baptist school in Wake Forest. Baylor never had a chance at the Big 10 (no research), SEC (already has A&M) or Pac 12 (religion).

But the Bears' tenure in the Big 12 is just awful. In the last 10 years, two presidents had to resign due to major athletic scandals! Who does that? Now I think the ACC would pass.

***********

As a Houston fan, we have to wait for Texas to make a long term commitment. No conference will take Houston while Texas is potentially available.

But our value goes way up for whoever loses the "Texas Derby." I think a Houston/TCU pairing would be very attractive to the ACC or Pac 12. Easy access. Huge media/recruiting markets.
07-05-2017 06:54 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Dodd on Baylor
JR you are assuming Fox doesn' have plan of it's own
160 million a yr gets B-12 to expand by 8 & with Conn gets
Fox in Northeast w Conn & back thru midwest & piece of Fla
which already owns 3/4 of B-10 & 2/3 of B-12
Tex & Okla are not complaning
ESPN should be fixing LHN, not worry about take overs
Fox gets in bed w NBC & CBS, ESPN would have start throwing cash around again
07-05-2017 08:45 AM
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westwolf Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Dodd on Baylor
[/quote]

There is more to it then that but yea BYU has zero shot at the PAC and even Utah would vote to not let them in
[/quote]

Yes, it is a shame about BYU. All dressed up and nowhere to go. Nobody wants those 60,000 fans per game.
07-05-2017 08:48 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Dodd on Baylor
ACC and SEC both ESPN/ABC and CBS have rights to show those games.
ESPN and CBS Sports Network have rights to show AAC, MWC, MAC and Sun Belt Conference.
Boise State's home games and some away games are ESPN's.
BYU have ESPN.
ESPN would love to get ARMY. NAVY and Air Force in somewhere. Get the ACC and SEC games onto the Armed Forces Network. More exposure around the globe.
Schools mentioned on the Big 12 expansion list. It was more of ESPN's wishlist because they are having issues of getting the Longhorn Network to other states that are not Big 12. Arkansas State, Tulane, UNLV (for Arizona's Suddenlink Customers forced to have it), San Diego State (same as UNLV), and so forth. A lot of cable companies do not want to add the Longhorns Network.
If you noticed that ESPN and CBS share the same conferences. CBS sports are not going out of their way to pay a lot of money like the other networks do. I do think ESPN and CBS is working together to slow down Fox Sports.
07-05-2017 09:27 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 12:28 AM)Groo Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 08:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out

Dodds is a missouri grad. His opinion on KU is biased at best.

Just his opinion on KU?

I think he represents a low point for sports journalism myself.
07-05-2017 09:30 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 09:30 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 12:28 AM)Groo Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 08:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out

Dodds is a missouri grad. His opinion on KU is biased at best.

Just his opinion on KU?

I think he represents a low point for sports journalism myself.

Being in a small populated state, not very strong blue blood in football and being an AAU school may not be enough to get into another conference. UConn. is an AAU type school, but they are not wanted anywhere right now. Kansas is on the edge with Iowa State right now.
07-05-2017 09:35 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 09:35 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 09:30 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 12:28 AM)Groo Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 08:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out

Dodds is a missouri grad. His opinion on KU is biased at best.

Just his opinion on KU?

I think he represents a low point for sports journalism myself.

Being in a small populated state, not very strong blue blood in football and being an AAU school may not be enough to get into another conference. UConn. is an AAU type school, but they are not wanted anywhere right now. Kansas is on the edge with Iowa State right now.

...basketball
07-05-2017 09:43 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Dodd on Baylor
I don't think any of us knows exactly what will happen.

But almost all of us can see the writing on the wall.

Desperate for cash, the P5 will do anything for it. I could mean adding teams. It could mean passing legislation to permit semifinal games. It could mean an expanded playoff system.
07-05-2017 09:51 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Dodd on Baylor

There is more to it then that but yea BYU has zero shot at the PAC and even Utah would vote to not let them in
[/quote]

Yes, it is a shame about BYU. All dressed up and nowhere to go. Nobody wants those 60,000 fans per game.
[/quote]

Those 60,000 a game aren't what they were when they first started drawing like that in the mid 80's.

Florida State was only 60,500 seats back then. Alabama was 60,200. BYU was effectively a power conference anchor for the WAC at the time.
07-05-2017 10:04 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 10:53 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:01 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 09:52 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Baylor wouldn't get picked up by the PAC-12, ACC, SEC or B1G. There's too much radioactivity around not just their athletic program right now, but their institution as well. IMO, Houston has a very realistic shot at getting a call-up and taking their place.

I think Dodds is wrong about Kansas. Kansas will absolutely have interest from all four remaining power conferences. The SEC would be an intriguing option, for it would help them elevate basketball, and it would pair them again with Missouri. The B1G will always be there, because of their location and AAU. The PAC-12 would be interesting, as getting them into a basketball conference with UCLA and Arizona would get more eyeballs during the Winter. The ACC may be a long-shot, both because of geography, lack of big-time football, and less desire to improve basketball, but I still think there would be some interest there (especially if it gets a Texas or Oklahoma there too).

Kansas heavily investing in their football stadium is no mistake either. That is a calculated plan in order to prepare them for a move to another conference.

I think that one can see the value placed upon basketball schools by looking at where the best program in the last 20 years (by far) is.....the G5. No takers for UConn. Even in an environment where lots of schools were looked at and taken and the P5 was expanding.

The candidacy of Kansas and UConn is, and will be even more over time, different.

Between now and 2025, Kansas will be making $35 million annually from its Big 12 TV contract whereas UConn will be making anywhere from $1.7 to (optimally) $8 million (likely around $5 to $6 million). Within that time frame, Kansas is guaranteed of making $280 million. UConn is guaranteed $5.1 million from its TV deal through 2020, along with another $10 million this coming year from separation fees (last year before those funds dry up). From 2021-23, assuming UConn is not in a Power Conference, UConn will make somewhere between the $15 to $24 million annually from the new AAC TV deal. If you add it all up, it's $280 million to (at maximum) $40 million from TV revenue alone. That's seven times the revenue in under a decade. Heck, if you want to throw in the buy games that UConn is currently pursuing for $2 million annually starting in 2021, you can still throw in an extra $6 million and it still isn't even close.

Why does this matter? Because Kansas will be heavily investing in its program, strengthening its candidacy while still a member of the P5. UConn, which - by that point - will have spent 10 years attempting to get back into the power conference structure, while still member of the G5. This also doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of all of UConn's local rivals - Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers - all earning extravagantly more revenue annually. With Kansas, all of their geographic rivals are on equal footing, since all of them are still in power conferences.

It's an apples to oranges comparison. 07-coffee3

Remember, that decisions made after the new TV deals come out will be made in light of how the environment from that point forward will look. How does KU's investment (or Pitt's btw) really help out the other teams in their prospective conferences if the product is 'meh' or worse and they have a small and largely unengaged fanbase? They don't. KU can spend all it wants....but they'll still be another mouth to feed to South Carolina or Auburn....or Penn State...or Clemson...or Washington.

To be clear I don't think UConn gets the call either in a major split. Even if they win the next 6 mens and womens basketball championships and they win 8+ games a year in football. My point is that, basketball is largely irrelevant. And KU is kind of screwed if there's a haircut in TV revenues across the board.
07-05-2017 10:33 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 10:04 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 08:48 AM)westwolf Wrote:  

There is more to it then that but yea BYU has zero shot at the PAC and even Utah would vote to not let them in

Yes, it is a shame about BYU. All dressed up and nowhere to go. Nobody wants those 60,000 fans per game.
[/quote]

Those 60,000 a game aren't what they were when they first started drawing like that in the mid 80's.

Florida State was only 60,500 seats back then. Alabama was 60,200. BYU was effectively a power conference anchor for the WAC at the time.
[/quote]

That's back when we used to have to travel to the dump in the middle of the state for some of our home games.
07-05-2017 10:35 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Dodd on Baylor
BYU's home attendance (about 60K per game) still falls in the top half of the P5 attendance numbers every year. Most years, BYU's attendance would be top-3 in the B12 and top-5 in the PAC.

EDIT: And BYU basketball attendance (about 15-16K per game - playing a WCC schedule) is usually in the top 10 or 15. That's top 3 or 4 in most P5 conferences. It would be #1 in PAC, #2 in B12 (behind Kansas), #2 in SEC (behind Kentucky), #4 in ACC (behind Syracuse, Louisville, and North Carolina), #4 in B1G (behind Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St.).
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2017 10:52 AM by YNot.)
07-05-2017 10:47 AM
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Post: #56
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 10:33 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:53 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:01 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 09:52 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Baylor wouldn't get picked up by the PAC-12, ACC, SEC or B1G. There's too much radioactivity around not just their athletic program right now, but their institution as well. IMO, Houston has a very realistic shot at getting a call-up and taking their place.

I think Dodds is wrong about Kansas. Kansas will absolutely have interest from all four remaining power conferences. The SEC would be an intriguing option, for it would help them elevate basketball, and it would pair them again with Missouri. The B1G will always be there, because of their location and AAU. The PAC-12 would be interesting, as getting them into a basketball conference with UCLA and Arizona would get more eyeballs during the Winter. The ACC may be a long-shot, both because of geography, lack of big-time football, and less desire to improve basketball, but I still think there would be some interest there (especially if it gets a Texas or Oklahoma there too).

Kansas heavily investing in their football stadium is no mistake either. That is a calculated plan in order to prepare them for a move to another conference.

I think that one can see the value placed upon basketball schools by looking at where the best program in the last 20 years (by far) is.....the G5. No takers for UConn. Even in an environment where lots of schools were looked at and taken and the P5 was expanding.

The candidacy of Kansas and UConn is, and will be even more over time, different.

Between now and 2025, Kansas will be making $35 million annually from its Big 12 TV contract whereas UConn will be making anywhere from $1.7 to (optimally) $8 million (likely around $5 to $6 million). Within that time frame, Kansas is guaranteed of making $280 million. UConn is guaranteed $5.1 million from its TV deal through 2020, along with another $10 million this coming year from separation fees (last year before those funds dry up). From 2021-23, assuming UConn is not in a Power Conference, UConn will make somewhere between the $15 to $24 million annually from the new AAC TV deal. If you add it all up, it's $280 million to (at maximum) $40 million from TV revenue alone. That's seven times the revenue in under a decade. Heck, if you want to throw in the buy games that UConn is currently pursuing for $2 million annually starting in 2021, you can still throw in an extra $6 million and it still isn't even close.

Why does this matter? Because Kansas will be heavily investing in its program, strengthening its candidacy while still a member of the P5. UConn, which - by that point - will have spent 10 years attempting to get back into the power conference structure, while still member of the G5. This also doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of all of UConn's local rivals - Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers - all earning extravagantly more revenue annually. With Kansas, all of their geographic rivals are on equal footing, since all of them are still in power conferences.

It's an apples to oranges comparison. 07-coffee3

Remember, that decisions made after the new TV deals come out will be made in light of how the environment from that point forward will look. How does KU's investment (or Pitt's btw) really help out the other teams in their prospective conferences if the product is 'meh' or worse and they have a small and largely unengaged fanbase? They don't. KU can spend all it wants....but they'll still be another mouth to feed to South Carolina or Auburn....or Penn State...or Clemson...or Washington.

To be clear I don't think UConn gets the call either in a major split. Even if they win the next 6 mens and womens basketball championships and they win 8+ games a year in football. My point is that, basketball is largely irrelevant. And KU is kind of screwed if there's a haircut in TV revenues across the board.

From what I have read and heard it sounds like Kansas may be a top target of the Big10.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2017 01:34 PM by SMUmustangs.)
07-05-2017 10:48 AM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 10:47 AM)YNot Wrote:  BYU's home attendance (about 60K per game) still falls in the top half of the P5 attendance numbers every year. Most years, BYU's attendance would be top-3 in the B12 and top-5 in the PAC.

EDIT: And BYU basketball attendance (about 15-16K per game - playing a WCC schedule) is usually in the top 10 or 15. That's top 3 or 4 in most P5 conferences. It would be #1 in PAC, #2 in B12 (behind Kansas), #2 in SEC (behind Kentucky), #4 in ACC (behind Syracuse, Louisville, and North Carolina), #4 in B1G (behind Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St.).

It's not the number of fans that are the problem with BYU.
07-05-2017 10:53 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 10:53 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 10:47 AM)YNot Wrote:  BYU's home attendance (about 60K per game) still falls in the top half of the P5 attendance numbers every year. Most years, BYU's attendance would be top-3 in the B12 and top-5 in the PAC.

EDIT: And BYU basketball attendance (about 15-16K per game - playing a WCC schedule) is usually in the top 10 or 15. That's top 3 or 4 in most P5 conferences. It would be #1 in PAC, #2 in B12 (behind Kansas), #2 in SEC (behind Kentucky), #4 in ACC (behind Syracuse, Louisville, and North Carolina), #4 in B1G (behind Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St.).

It's not the number of fans that are the problem with BYU.

I think its clear at this point that the Pac 12 ain't calling, and if the Big XII does, it will be a Big XII that has a very different membership profile.

BYU's play at this point is to hope to get pulled up with Notre Dame in the event of a split. Conference affiliation for ND would be a disaster for BYU's chances in such a scenario.
07-05-2017 10:58 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 03:42 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  PS- Do you think OU and Texas want their soccer, volley ball, etc. teams traveling all over the East half of of the US. Get real.

It doesn't seem to bother Notre Dame. They ship those teams all over the western half of the country too.
07-05-2017 11:26 AM
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Dodd on Baylor
(07-05-2017 10:47 AM)YNot Wrote:  BYU's home attendance (about 60K per game) still falls in the top half of the P5 attendance numbers every year. Most years, BYU's attendance would be top-3 in the B12 and top-5 in the PAC.

EDIT: And BYU basketball attendance (about 15-16K per game - playing a WCC schedule) is usually in the top 10 or 15. That's top 3 or 4 in most P5 conferences. It would be #1 in PAC, #2 in B12 (behind Kansas), #2 in SEC (behind Kentucky), #4 in ACC (behind Syracuse, Louisville, and North Carolina), #4 in B1G (behind Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St.).


Right or wrong, BYU will not get into a P5 league, due to their status a church school as it stands now on LGBT issues (imo they will get a revelation and change, just like they did when the heat was on for blacks). I don't even think it is a lock they could even get back in the MW due to them enraging many of their former conference mates due to their arrogance and dirty play.


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07-05-2017 12:01 PM
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