A new variable that could be a catalyst for realignment...

Airlines want to make massive cutbacks to charter flights for college and pro football teams. This has already directly affected East Carolina and (almost) Ohio State. Unless you're a top 10 program that can afford a plane you're probably in trouble.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/201...rs-the-bus

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Did someone say realignment?

(06-02-2017 04:55 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  Did someone say realignment?

Haha apparently not, but this will cause some problems if the issue persists.

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(06-03-2017 08:14 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  

(06-02-2017 04:55 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  Did someone say realignment?

Haha apparently not, but this will cause some problems if the issue persists.

twitter.com/DieselOnRadio

Yea I'm shocked at the lack of chatter over this. I agree with you; this will cause problems.

Maybe people are finally tiring or realignment talk?

I bet the SoCon is behind this.

This is a temporary problem. If there's demand, and jet fuel prices are low...someone will fill the need. Remember travel demand is falling overall in this country.

(06-03-2017 10:49 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This is a temporary problem. If there's demand, and jet fuel prices are low...someone will fill the need. Remember travel demand is falling overall in this country.

Sure, someone could fill the need but when it's big players like Jet Blue and United dropping charter service 1 or 2 or even 3 smaller carriers probably won't be able to fill the needs of all 128 FBS programs. They'll likely hitch their wagons to P5 programs first leaving G5s in a lurch.

Hence this is a much bigger problem for smaller conferences.

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(06-03-2017 08:51 AM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  Maybe people are finally tiring of realignment talk?

Lol just ask people who they'd like to be in a bus league with...you'll hear a hundred and one combinations.

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This could go further than the G5, smaller P5s like Wake and Vandy might also be affected. What would a regionalized G5 look like? Would the Carolina schools form a conference?

(06-03-2017 10:49 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This is a temporary problem. If there's demand, and jet fuel prices are low...someone will fill the need. Remember travel demand is falling overall in this country.

Airplanes are easily moved between routes to meet demand and overall demand is rising. North America only rose 3.2% in in 2015 vs over 5% globally. More flights are departing full.

The thing is a 737 is going to cost you over $50 million and some charter work on Fridays and Saturday nights won't pay for it. You need it flying Sunday-Thursday as well. If you aren't flying it charter, you might get 4 to 10 revenue flights out of an airframe on Friday, flying charter, you might be lucky to get in 2 or 3.

Projections are passenger boardings will double over the next 20 years. Unless and until there is surplus capacity, charter travel will be an issue.

(06-03-2017 08:58 AM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  I bet the SoCon is behind this.

(06-03-2017 08:58 AM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  I bet the SoCon is behind this.

That would be the SmallCon...

I find the whole "bus league" nomenclature irritating. I'm sorry if your school is located in a state that is 1/7th of the country, or where few other FBS schools around and have to fly. If anyone can save money while maintaining a solid FBS schedule they would be foolish not to do so. I like the Sunbelt, but my loyality is to my school. Whatever situation providing the best competitive & financial environment for App to grow and prosper is what I'm in favor of. It has nothing to do with anyone we are associated with now.

(06-03-2017 11:03 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  

(06-03-2017 10:49 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This is a temporary problem. If there's demand, and jet fuel prices are low...someone will fill the need. Remember travel demand is falling overall in this country.

Sure, someone could fill the need but when it's big players like Jet Blue and United dropping charter service 1 or 2 or even 3 smaller carriers probably won't be able to fill the needs of all 128 FBS programs. They'll likely hitch their wagons to P5 programs first leaving G5s in a lurch.

Hence this is a much bigger problem for smaller conferences.

twitter.com/DieselOnRadio

Again, if there's a margin to be made, someone will fill it. The charter companies could give two ***** whether they're being paid 100 grand to fly Alabama or South Alabama. If USA offers them 1 cent more...they'll get the charter flight.

(06-03-2017 02:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, if there's a margin to be made, someone will fill it. The charter companies could give two ***** whether they're being paid 100 grand to fly Alabama or South Alabama. If USA offers them 1 cent more...they'll get the charter flight.

You say that as if all these deals are not based on contracts, as if all 128 schools will have equal access to the limited number of charter flights on a first come first served basis. You are correct that in capitalism whenever a market to make money presents itself someone will step up and fill the need but all I'm saying is with high demand and low inventory price is the only variable that can change. G5s may get priced out.

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There are hundreds of small carriers that will fill the void

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(06-04-2017 07:49 AM)panama Wrote:  There are hundreds of small carriers that will fill the void

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We are just over three years into supply constraining and the trend hasn't reversed or slowed.

(06-04-2017 07:49 AM)panama Wrote:  There are hundreds of small carriers that will fill the void

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Yea..so instead of chartering one 737, they charter 3 ERJ-45s etc. There's no rule that the teams have to travel on the same plane.

(06-04-2017 06:20 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-04-2017 07:49 AM)panama Wrote:  There are hundreds of small carriers that will fill the void

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Yea..so instead of chartering one 737, they charter 3 ERJ-45s etc. There's no rule that the teams have to travel on the same plane.

Not true, CCU usually charters a 737 for football and other sports using a small airline no one has ever heard of.

(06-04-2017 08:16 PM)SENOREIDA Wrote:  

(06-04-2017 06:20 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(06-04-2017 07:49 AM)panama Wrote:  There are hundreds of small carriers that will fill the void

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Yea..so instead of chartering one 737, they charter 3 ERJ-45s etc. There's no rule that the teams have to travel on the same plane.

Not true, CCU usually charters a 737 for football and other sports using a small airline no one has ever heard of.

Missing the point.

CCU isn't super smart and out-witting everyone because no one else knows about whatever airline.

The total inventory of 737, A319 and A320 airframes in North America is insufficient to meet the charter needs of the NFL and college football because most are too busy running revenue flights for passenger and freight airlines.

Call your AD, ask if it has gotten easier or harder to secure a charter.

This isn't lemonade stands where if you have a run on lemons and sugar you can secure inventory by driving a bit further to other grocery stores.

Boeing has increased production of the 737. On December 31, 2016 Boeing had orders for 4,452 737's waiting to be filled.

Boeing is upgrading their production and will increase production in 2017 and again in 2017 and even with those upgrades if you have order #4,452 on that backlog, you will take delivery in 2022.