we need a player who is better than Evans to be on the team when Evans is here, if we want to get to the tourney.

While nothing is impossible, it is difficult to look at the current team--even with Egor on it--and say it is good enough to get to the dance--home losses to UAB and UTEP don't jibe with being dance-ready. If Egor leaves, we go into next year as a bottom half of CUSA team.

What we really need is an elite grad transfer to pair with Evans, preferably next year. I don't know where we find him. Maybe it's a guy who is playing short minutes on a Top 10 team. Maybe it's a guy Rhodes recruited hard when on Shaka's staff but who ended up at Villanova or Virginia.

(02-20-2017 09:28 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Agreed with Egor although I think he could get a summer team spot and tryout with an NBA team.

I guess they always need bodies, but if Egor were destined for the NBA, we wouldn't have lost at home to UAB and UTEP.

(02-20-2017 04:00 PM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(02-20-2017 09:28 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Agreed with Egor although I think he could get a summer team spot and tryout with an NBA team.

I guess they always need bodies, but if Egor were destined for the NBA, we wouldn't have lost at home to UAB and UTEP.

I'm thinking a Euro team will pick him up before next year. Hope I'm wrong, but ...

(02-20-2017 03:59 PM)MemOwl Wrote:  we need a player who is better than Evans to be on the team when Evans is here, if we want to get to the tourney.

While nothing is impossible, it is difficult to look at the current team--even with Egor on it--and say it is good enough to get to the dance--home losses to UAB and UTEP don't jibe with being dance-ready. If Egor leaves, we go into next year as a bottom half of CUSA team.

What we really need is an elite grad transfer to pair with Evans, preferably next year. I don't know where we find him. Maybe it's a guy who is playing short minutes on a Top 10 team. Maybe it's a guy Rhodes recruited hard when on Shaka's staff but who ended up at Villanova or Virginia.

Evans is probably one of the top sophomores in the country... Yes I agree if we had someone better than him we would be in the NCAA tourney but that's definitely not a requirement. Evans is better than anyone playing for MTSU (definitely when they were sophomores) and they are the best team in CUSA.

I think the bigger issue is that beyond Evans and Koulechov, our team isn't particularly good.

(02-20-2017 07:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I think the bigger issue is that beyond Evans and Koulechov, our team isn't particularly good.

I think you can say that about most teams if you take away their top 2 players! And I think other guys would score more if forced to take over for Evans and/or Koulechov.

(02-20-2017 04:51 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  Evans is better than anyone playing for MTSU (definitely when they were sophomores) and they are the best team in CUSA.

Do you really believe that? We are not close to mtsu.

The corollary of believing what you say is either

1. Rhodes can't coach; or

2. He pissed away most of his schollies on guys who can't play

(02-20-2017 07:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I think the bigger issue is that beyond Evans and Koulechov, our team isn't particularly good.

I guess I'd have to ask what you mean by "good". Looking at several years of Pre-Rhodes teams, as well as his first season here, I'd have to say we might now be "good". At least "better". If you equate "good" with being a Top 100 team, obviously we aren't "good".

Without trying to resurrect the old incrementalism vs whatever argument, I think we might have to live for a few seasons in the 15-20 win range before we are recognized as being really "good" enough to attract top tier recruits and cross over into consistent Top 100 territory. "Good" might even belong to the next coach beyond Coach Rhodes.
We need to take the long view, IMHO.

I don't think Rhoades has actually done a great job of talent evaluation, especially at the high end.. Not a deplorable one, but not a great one.

Quez was a very highly rated recruit with lots of offers from big schools. He plays very sloppy and is only averaging 7 and 5. He can hardly stay out on the floor for more than 2 minutes without picking up multiple fouls.

Tim Harrison also was very high rated coming out of high school, with some big offers. I haven't seen anything that tells me he's a future star. I wouldn't expect him to be fully developed as a freshman, but would have hoped to see more "flashes" than we have.

Guys like Cashaw, Lott, Meyer, etc are fine basketball players, but really just JAGs, not players that form a core of a contender.

Rhoades has also recruited some busts (Amir Smith, Nate Pollard, and maybe Robert Martin [Not sure what's up with him?]), but every coach has some of those. However, these busts contribute to why we are absolutely useless against teams with good post players.

(02-20-2017 10:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I don't think Rhoades has actually done a great job of talent evaluation, especially at the high end.. Not a deplorable one, but not a great one.

Quez was a very highly rated recruit with lots of offers from big schools. He has plays very sloppy and is only averaging 7 and 5. He can hardly stay out on the floor for more than 2 minutes without picking up multiple fouls.

Tim Harrison also was very high rated coming out of high school, with some big offers. I haven't seen anything that tells me he's a future star. I wouldn't expect him to be fully developed as a freshman, but would have hoped to see more "flashes" than we have.

Guys like Cashaw, Lott, Meyer, etc are fine basketball players, but really just JAGs, not players that form a core of a contender.

Rhoades has also recruited some busts (Amir Smith, Nate Pollard, and maybe Robert Martin [Not sure what's up with him?]), but every coach has some of those. However, these busts contribute to why we are absolutely useless against teams with good post players.

IMO, you're being way too critical. Quez has all the talent in the world, in line with his recruiting rating, and has shown it. His problem is both consistency and court maturity. It hasn't happened yet, but if and when it does, the sky is the limit for him and us. Meyers is way too early to give a complete assessment. He obviously needs to put on some muscle. However, he's a plus rebounder with very good hands, and some really good offensive moves/footwork in the low post. I think you're greatly undervaluing Lott, who has proven to be a spark plug on more than one occassion this season. Remember he is coming off a bad knee injury which had him miss all of last season. Ditto Jackson, who we know has the talent and capacity within him to be "the man", 'cause we saw it throughout the 2015 season. Should Egor depart next season, one would hope that Jackson steps back into a more aggressive offensive mode.

Don't mean to pile on, because I do think he's a decent coach and definitely has the program going in the right direction, but Rhoades also refused to put Jeremy Jones on scholarship when he wanted to switch from football to basketball.

Jones is now getting minutes (a small, but consistent amount) for the nation's #1 team.

(02-20-2017 10:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Quez was a very highly rated recruit with lots of offers from big schools. He plays very sloppy and is only averaging 7 and 5. He can hardly stay out on the floor for more than 2 minutes without picking up multiple fouls.

This seems like a good time to remind everyone that Quez was super, super young when he matriculated. He is 1 month younger than Austin Meyer and 6 months younger than Ako Adams. Robert Martin and Corey Douglas both played a prep year (meaning they graduated high school the same year as Quez), but he is 8 months younger than Martin and 11 months younger than Douglas. He is also 8 months younger than Cashaw and 1 year younger than Evans.

Just saying that he still has room for growth.

(02-20-2017 10:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I don't think Rhoades has actually done a great job of talent evaluation, especially at the high end.. Not a deplorable one, but not a great one.

Rice has had lots of offers out to top-200 players the last few years. Just haven't gotten any of them yet other than Quez and Harrison. And he had a commitment from Josh Hall (occasional starter / 6th-man as a freshman for Nevada, who is similar quality to MTSU), which fell apart for academic reasons.

(02-21-2017 12:13 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Don't mean to pile on, because I do think he's a decent coach and definitely has the program going in the right direction, but Rhoades also refused to put Jeremy Jones on scholarship when he wanted to switch from football to basketball.

Jones is now getting minutes (a small, but consistent amount) for the nation's #1 team.

Regarding Jeremy Jones, I haven't followed Gonzaga at all, but he hasn't played in their 5 closest games (5-pt win over Florida; 2-pt win over Iowa St; 7-pt win over Arizona; 10-pt win over BYU; 10-pt win over Saint Mary's). They have a lot of blowouts, perhaps that is where he is getting the bulk of his minutes? Only 71 minutes on the season ... though I guess that is more than Sean Obi has at Duke! To put 71 minutes in perspective, that is in the range of Mency and Martin for Rice.

It's a reminder of how many quanta there are between us and a Top 10 team, that players who would be starters or major contributors here don't even get on the floor for Duke or Gonzaga.

Obi is an enigma. He had one of the best freshman years in school history--albeit on a very bad team--and it's not clear that he even likes the game, based on what has transpired at Duke.

It is worth pausing to note that we aren't at the outermost quantum level any more. We will win 20+ games and close to 2/3 of the games we play, and yet finish middle of the pack in a 1 bid league. The Power of Positive Scheduling :)

Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

(02-20-2017 10:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I don't think Rhoades has actually done a great job of talent evaluation, especially at the high end.. Not a deplorable one, but not a great one.

Quez was a very highly rated recruit with lots of offers from big schools. He plays very sloppy and is only averaging 7 and 5. He can hardly stay out on the floor for more than 2 minutes without picking up multiple fouls.

Tim Harrison also was very high rated coming out of high school, with some big offers. I haven't seen anything that tells me he's a future star. I wouldn't expect him to be fully developed as a freshman, but would have hoped to see more "flashes" than we have.

Guys like Cashaw, Lott, Meyer, etc are fine basketball players, but really just JAGs, not players that form a core of a contender.

Rhoades has also recruited some busts (Amir Smith, Nate Pollard, and maybe Robert Martin [Not sure what's up with him?]), but every coach has some of those. However, these busts contribute to why we are absolutely useless against teams with good post players.

One thing to keep in mind when critiquing the talent assessment capabilities of all Rice coaches not named Wayne Graham is that they assess and offer quite a few players who choose to go elsewhere, at least that's what I've gathered from reading the recruiting threads above the general topics. Rhoades and Bailiff offer players that choose to go elsewhere, including P5 schools.

Obviously Bailiff (and assistants) identified a decent amount of potential in that we have a number of players in the NFL.

And I think Rhoades has improved recruiting the right way, not just getting good players, but players who want to be here.

No more Transfer U.

(02-21-2017 05:07 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  It's a reminder of how many quanta there are between us and a Top 10 team, that players who would be starters or major contributors here don't even get on the floor for Duke or Gonzaga.

Obi is an enigma. He had one of the best freshman years in school history--albeit on a very bad team--and it's not clear that he even likes the game, based on what has transpired at Duke.

It is worth pausing to note that we aren't at the outermost quantum level any more. We will win 20+ games and close to 2/3 of the games we play, and yet finish middle of the pack in a 1 bid league. The Power of Positive Scheduling :)

Who said Jeremy Jones would've been a major contributor here? Obi has been hurt at Duke, and remember only 8 or 9 guys usually play in college basketball and Duke signs a top 5 class every year. 75% of the teams in the P5 could live off the players that don't contribute at Duke (or Kentucky or Kansas)....

Finishing in the top 150 in RPI should've been the goal this season. You don't go from perennial cellar dwellers to top 20 in 3 seasons unless you sign a class full of 4 and 5 stars (who we've been offering and didn't land). Rhoades' staff has offered several of those guys before they were even on the radars of the recruiting sites and P5 programs.

(02-21-2017 09:18 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  Who said Jeremy Jones would've been a major contributor here? ... 75% of the teams in the P5 could live off the players that don't contribute at Duke (or Kentucky or Kansas)....

I think your two sentences above contradict each other. Gonzaga is #1 in the country and certainly a peer or Duke, Kentucky and Kansas.

If 75% of P5 schools could live off their guys who don't contribute (e.g, Jeremy Jones) then it stands to reason he would contribute here, since we are ranked higher than only 6 P5 schools (in Sagarin).

If the target for year 3 is top 150, how many years could Rhoades be here without getting to NCAA tournament before you would say you were disappointed that we haven't been yet?

Here is some data to inform your answer

consider a peer group of 13 CUSA schools, 12 Southland schools and 12 Sun Belt schools--total of 37 peers. 25 of them, fully 2/3, have been at least once in this century, whereas the Owls, IIRC, have not even made a conference tournament final during that period.

Or another way of asking the question might be this--was 16 years too long, too short, or just about the right amount of time to give Willis a shot to get to the dance?

(02-21-2017 09:29 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 09:18 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  Who said Jeremy Jones would've been a major contributor here? ... 75% of the teams in the P5 could live off the players that don't contribute at Duke (or Kentucky or Kansas)....

I think your two sentences above contradict each other. Gonzaga is #1 in the country and certainly a peer or Duke, Kentucky and Kansas.

If 75% of P5 schools could live off their guys who don't contribute (e.g, Jeremy Jones) then it stands to reason he would contribute here, since we are ranked higher than only 6 P5 schools (in Sagarin).

If the target for year 3 is top 150, how many years could Rhoades be here without getting to NCAA tournament before you would say you were disappointed that we haven't been yet?

Here is some data to inform your answer

consider a peer group of 13 CUSA schools, 12 Southland schools and 12 Sun Belt schools--total of 37 peers. 25 of them, fully 2/3, have been at least once in this century, whereas the Owls, IIRC, have not even made a conference tournament final during that period.

Or another way of asking the question might be this--was 16 years too long, too short, or just about the right amount of time to give Willis a shot to get to the dance?

I'd say we need to at least be an NIT team by Year 5.

Based on where Braun left us, Rhoades gets some room to work.

Just to clarify a bit where I stand:

1. The objective is to get to the NCAA tourney. A coach who works at Rice and fails to achieve that has failed. (This is a 21st century view in a world of a 68 team tournament. I think the bar would have been different in 1970.)

2. Given that we play in a one bid league, the success or failure of the season won't be known until early March in Birmingham. See The Last Amateurs for a more complete treatment of this mindset. See also Army and Navy football.

3. The UTEP loss has me quite blue--probably overly so--as I update my Bayesian probabilities of our getting to the dance this year and find them very low (ie, less than 1 in 100)

4. The consensus that Egor is not coming back sinks me even lower, as it seems all but certain we will take a large step back next season. I could be made wrong by a surprise in recruiting and/or by substantial development among players getting light minutes this year.

5. But if I'm right, we go into next year with the same <1% chance of having a successful season, by my definition.

6. Yes, Lloyd Christmas, I'm telling you there's a chance.

(02-21-2017 09:29 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 09:18 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  Who said Jeremy Jones would've been a major contributor here? ... 75% of the teams in the P5 could live off the players that don't contribute at Duke (or Kentucky or Kansas)....

I think your two sentences above contradict each other. Gonzaga is #1 in the country and certainly a peer or Duke, Kentucky and Kansas.

If 75% of P5 schools could live off their guys who don't contribute (e.g, Jeremy Jones) then it stands to reason he would contribute here, since we are ranked higher than only 6 P5 schools (in Sagarin).

If the target for year 3 is top 150, how many years could Rhoades be here without getting to NCAA tournament before you would say you were disappointed that we haven't been yet?

Here is some data to inform your answer

consider a peer group of 13 CUSA schools, 12 Southland schools and 12 Sun Belt schools--total of 37 peers. 25 of them, fully 2/3, have been at least once in this century, whereas the Owls, IIRC, have not even made a conference tournament final during that period.

Or another way of asking the question might be this--was 16 years too long, too short, or just about the right amount of time to give Willis a shot to get to the dance?

Stop with the "so called" peer group comparisons. None of those schools have the academic requirements Rice has. Rice's "real" near peer competition is the private schools of the AAU, a fact Dr. K and President L (current President of the AAU) know well. In that group, outside of the P5 schools, Penn, Princeton, Cornell, Yale and Harvard all made the dance in the last 16 years. Rice last danced in 1970. Bring our Coach K(nodel) back out of the stands if we need new (old) blood. He never received the accolades Graham did but coached (in a different era) some talented individuals who are passionate about Rice's hardwood success to this day.