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Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 04:51 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  The very real fact is that some G5 football programs spend closer to FCS than P5. On the other hand, some G5 spend closer to P5 than FCS.


Don't think you can unify all of G5 around this idea. Only those that want to be FBS, without spending P5 level money, but want to make sure they're still better than FCS.

G5 fall into three categories. About 5 are spending to get in the P5. Cincy, Houston, BYU, and UConn (because of Basketball budget) are in that group. I left a 5th one open, even though nobody really qualifies. They are all running heavy "strategic" deficits, like Rutgers did in the hope of crossing over (BYU a different animal). These programs are throwing in excess of $100m in the next 6-7 years at it, above high mid-majors, but without any additional revenue to speak of (save UConn Basketball).

A second group spends high mid-major, about 75-85% of the bottom P5 schools (Washington State who are undre orders from the Pac-12 to pick it up). Schools like Boise State, Memphis, the directional Florida schools, SDSU, SMU, and a half dozen others fall into this category. The deficits run in the $15m range annually, Boise State does the best froma budget standpoint.

Most (I'd say roughly 35 schools) spend about $30m a year give or take $5m, and run a deficit of $10-15m made up in student fees or indirectly through tuition or tax money via institutional transfers. (Worst case is probably EMU)

There re around ten bottom budget schools that are closer to FCS, many in the SBC (ULM stands out).

NIU speaks for the ~35-40 schools in the middle and lower. Aresco speaks for the ~15-20 at the top (basically the AAC and half a dozen others).

Posters from UConn, Cincy, Houstin, who are among the "dreamers" group and want to cross over to P5 absolutely don't want a hard division. And they have enough clout to block it even if the money were there. But looking at it long term, as in ten years from now or so, Frazier is right. By then I expect the P5 to have realigned a little, chipping off 2or 3 B12, and 3 to 5 G5 "dreamers" getting their wish to cross over. But then the door will be closed, and the debts payments due. With the dreamers diminished as a group (either made the promised land or busted trying) the division will be complete. Then Frazier's view will carry the day. He is just speaking a decade early.

As for expanding the playoff, it would do nothing for the G5. All that would do is put 5 P5 in automatically as conference champions, and 3 at-large which would always go to P5 schools. G5 would get a NY6 slot only, just like now.
02-13-2017 07:45 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #22
Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
Not 10 years from now, I think more like 3 years
02-13-2017 07:50 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
So...Doubling down on the idea now.
I agree there isn't going to be a G5 playoff, however, if he and other schools drop down to FCS, that will give the NCAA more leverage to up the price of broadcasting the FCS playoffs. Sure some of the support will be lower, but having more schools like NIU that are at the top of the FCS only beefs up that division.
Maybe the whole conference wants to be a FCS division. They still are a D1 conference for basketball so that revenue isn't going away.

As I have mentioned, once Idaho moves down, they will not be the last.
02-13-2017 08:25 PM
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DavidSt Online
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Post: #24
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
MWC thinks they are P6 conference as well which is why most of them also applied to the Big 12.
02-13-2017 08:40 PM
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Tigersmoke3 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
Maybe I'm wrong here, but has anyone realized that this Stugray2 character is troll of another conference not related to tosu or SJSU? The phrases he uses are incorrect and the way that he speaks of "g5" conferences and teams is amateurish at best and appear to be from a "bball" only perspective. The topics that he rehashes are old,tired and decidely stupid from actual football centric conference fans. But hey maybe I'm wrong07-coffee307-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 08:58 PM by Tigersmoke3.)
02-13-2017 08:50 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
This won't "go away" because lots of people have a vested interest in continuing to talk about it. The fact that nobody actually wants it to happen except the people doing the talking doesn't seem to matter. I am sure that if you put this to a vote of all the G5 conferences, they would all, without exception, overwhelmingly say no. As well they should.

But there are a lot of delusional fans out there with visions of the G5 achieving its "rightful place" in the college football world, never realizing that it probably already has. And they have devices that they click whenever some "reporter" (read glorified blogger) panders to the delusion.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 09:14 AM by ken d.)
02-13-2017 09:11 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
Fencing yourself off in the sandy area isn't good.
02-13-2017 09:22 PM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
No
02-13-2017 09:25 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #29
Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 09:22 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Fencing yourself off in the sandy area isn't good.

You should be saying the same thing about yourself p5... dude...
Let that sink in...
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 10:11 PM by JHS55.)
02-13-2017 10:07 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 10:07 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 09:22 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Fencing yourself off in the sandy area isn't good.

You should be saying the same thing about yourself p5... dude...
Let that sink in...

...

Bless your heart...
02-13-2017 10:20 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #31
Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
That's a way of saying Iam a fool, mybe but...here in southeast Texas we have big time local recruiting and you don't !, Iam just hoping that the Houston recruits start staying home for my Cougars, if that happens your ass is grass...
Let that sink in...
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 10:48 PM by JHS55.)
02-13-2017 10:40 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 07:21 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  I believe if Houston had not shot themselves in the foot last season, they would have been in the CFP.

The G5 would give up $135-$150 million in CFP/bowl money. Is a G5 playoff going to replace that?

Right. Why would the G5 give up CFP money, close to 2 million per school to gamble on a G5 playoff worth $2.5 million per school?

What makes more sense is for the G5 to approach bowls left out of the mix, Holiday, Sun, Alamo, Liberty Gator, Outback to see if they would like to sign a $75 million dollar contract where the G5 champs not in an access bowl could play top tier competition.

If CBS Sports could find $50 million and take the Las Vegas, Sun, Independence, Mobile, Miami Beach and Bahamas with the G5 champs committing to play G5 competition that would be alright too.

There are other ways of making money than an outright separate playoff for the G5.
02-13-2017 11:29 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 04:18 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So quoting Dennis Dodd on twitter

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...obstacles/

A lot of interesting points about the financial realities of G5 FB. Frazier notes:

"It's the truth: We don't have an access [point] to the playoff," Frazier said. "The reality is when you say it publicly."

Frazier says 33 percent of his budget is balanced on the backs of student fees attached to tuition. While that's not rare at the mid-major level, it may not be sustainable.

"Right now, I'm not making any money. I'm paying money. I'm trying to figure out how to keep up with the Ohio States, the Michigans, and the Wisconsins, which is a pipe dream," he said.

From planet American:

"Zero interest in the concept," said Aresco, who has added on many occasions his belief the American is the sixth power conference.

(well 10 of 12 AAC members did apply to join the B12).

However reality probably best summed up here:

"The CFP does provide more to every Group of Five institution," Florida Atlantic AD Patrick Chun said. "The other reality is, I don't know if the Group of Five is that unified to get all five conference involved."

I think Frazier will get his wish, they'll talk about it. But I doubt his $160m valuation holds up. Networks will pay for P5 content, they will not pay for G5 (exception when one or two teams get hot, they'll pick up a game or two, like Houston this last year)

Fraziers whole problem is he is living in fantasy land. When the CFP deal was struck, the P5 was receiving a combined total of total of 1.1 billion a year from TV for their regular season rights. Their playoff was worth 470 million--or less than half the value of their total regular season.

My guess is that ratio would be a reasonable yard stick by which to measure the value of the G5 playoff. The G5 gets a combined 53 million a year for their regular season rights. Thus, their playoff would be worth around 25 million using the same ratio as the P5. That 160 million dollar figure is about as real as rock candy mountains and chocolate rivers.

My guess is you could get close to 25 million or more for a 3-bowl series of "Champions Bowls" pitting the G5 champs not in the access bowl against top selections from the P5 conferences not in a CFP sponsored bowl. The bowls would be owned by the G5 as a group.

#2 G5 champ vs highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#3 G5 champs vs 2ns highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#4 G5 champ vs #5 G5 champ (2 million each)

The rest of the TV rights money, ticket sales, and naming rights money is split evenly among the G5 schools.

That's more than most any non CFP bowl pays. The G5 vs P5 access bowls have commanded excellent audiences. Even the high level G5 vs G5 bowls have done pretty well (UH vs SDSU grabbed over 3.5 million viewers).

I think something like this that works within the existing FBS/CFP framework makes much more sense than any hair brained idea of a separate "playoff".
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 12:00 AM by Attackcoog.)
02-13-2017 11:56 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 09:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  But there are a lot of delusional fans out there with visions of the G5 achieving its "rightful place" in the college football world, never realizing that it probably already has. And they have devices that they click whenever some "reporter" (read glorified blogger) panders to the delusion.

In D1 basketball everyone knows there is a difference between power conferences and mid major conference yet you don't here a lot of talk about the bottom schools in D1 really belong in a subdivision with DII schools. D1 is supposed to be this big tent where all the schools can play. In basketball many DII programs are not far off from the NEC or Southland in quality.

FBS has differences between the P5 and G5 yet even the worst G5 are better than all but the top 10% of FCS. Facilities and talent none of the G5 are comparable to the middle pack FCS. Just a very few FCS programs the Montana's, NDSU's, Delaware's have an argument they could be at the top.

What AAC has to understand is that more could be gained by cooperating with the MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC because at 60 mid to large sized state schools across the country there is some clout. Going in on an upgraded bowl pool could bring some money in.

As to a lot of FBS programs moving down or giving up the sport you will see it first with FCS programs dropping and we haven't seen a lot of that yet. Idaho made a side step down in exchange for membership in a top flight FCS conference. Far more schools have started football programs in the last 10 years than discontinued or moved down.

Chicago St of all places is trying to start a FB program.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 12:15 AM by Kittonhead.)
02-14-2017 12:00 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #35
Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
The G5 would give up the cfb money becouse FOX will pay more ?
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 12:05 AM by JHS55.)
02-14-2017 12:04 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 11:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 04:18 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So quoting Dennis Dodd on twitter

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...obstacles/

A lot of interesting points about the financial realities of G5 FB. Frazier notes:

"It's the truth: We don't have an access [point] to the playoff," Frazier said. "The reality is when you say it publicly."

Frazier says 33 percent of his budget is balanced on the backs of student fees attached to tuition. While that's not rare at the mid-major level, it may not be sustainable.

"Right now, I'm not making any money. I'm paying money. I'm trying to figure out how to keep up with the Ohio States, the Michigans, and the Wisconsins, which is a pipe dream," he said.

From planet American:

"Zero interest in the concept," said Aresco, who has added on many occasions his belief the American is the sixth power conference.

(well 10 of 12 AAC members did apply to join the B12).

However reality probably best summed up here:

"The CFP does provide more to every Group of Five institution," Florida Atlantic AD Patrick Chun said. "The other reality is, I don't know if the Group of Five is that unified to get all five conference involved."

I think Frazier will get his wish, they'll talk about it. But I doubt his $160m valuation holds up. Networks will pay for P5 content, they will not pay for G5 (exception when one or two teams get hot, they'll pick up a game or two, like Houston this last year)

Fraziers whole problem is he is living in fantasy land. When the CFP deal was struck, the P5 was receiving a combined total of total of 1.1 billion a year from TV for their regular season rights. Their playoff was worth 470 million--or less than half the value of their total regular season.

My guess is that ratio would be a reasonable yard stick by which to measure the value of the G5 playoff. The G5 gets a combined 53 million a year for their regular season rights. Thus, their playoff would be worth around 25 million using the same ratio as the P5. That 160 million dollar figure is about as real as rock candy mountains and chocolate rivers.

My guess is you could get close to 25 million or more for a 3-bowl series of "Champions Bowls" pitting the G5 champs not in the access bowl against top selections from the P5 conferences not in a CFP sponsored bowl. The bowls would be owned by the G5 as a group.

#2 G5 champ vs highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#3 G5 champs vs 2ns highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#4 G5 champ vs #5 G5 champ (2 million each)

The rest of the TV rights money, ticket sales, and naming rights money is split evenly among the G5 schools.

That's more than most any non CFP bowl pays. The G5 vs P5 access bowls have commanded excellent audiences. Even the high level G5 vs G5 bowls have done pretty well (UH vs SDSU grabbed over 3.5 million viewers).

I think something like this that works within the existing FBS/CFP framework makes much more sense than any hair brained idea of a separate "playoff".

I think you are spot on about this. The G5 would be better trying to squeeze $50 million out of the networks to play P5 schools.

This way if you win your conference you are guaranteed in what would be perceived as a major bowl. The G5 would then need less of the lower tier bowl games.

Taking this year I could see interest in the MWC, AAC, CUSA, SBC champions against Top 20 P5 competition. People like novelty and Cinderella stories.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 12:13 AM by Kittonhead.)
02-14-2017 12:11 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
Watching the FCS playoff is a lot of fun. I think having a championship for the g-5 would be a fun way to end the season. The AAC screwed that up when they added Tulsa and Tulane. Had they added the 10 best Western schools at that point we could have a p-6 and g-4. But now you have 2 schools who don't belong in any power conference which will be hard to undo.

I'd love to see a C-USA vs Sun Belt playoff. Those schools aren't playing for anything at this point so might as well make a championship. With overlapping footprints in an area with plenty of great venues it would be a lot of fun to play 3 games against each other. You could do that with the existing CCG weekend and then simply use the New Orleans bowl for the championship game. Would Be similar to the historic black college championship in FCS.
02-14-2017 12:16 AM
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Ohio Poly Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-13-2017 04:59 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  Just for fun, here's how a Group of Five playoff would have looked in 2016.

No. 1 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Western Kentucky No. 3 Navy vs. No. 6 Houston
No. 4 South Florida vs. No. 5 San Diego State No. 2 Temple vs. No. 7 Boise State

BS No Sun Belt team in playoffs

That would have been awesome. I don't see anyone complaining about mid-major basketball polls and Bracketbuster series.

No one is saying that any team has to participate that doesn't want to. I'll leave it to ValleyBoy to post what the G5 tourney matchups would have been without AAC entrants.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 06:36 AM by Ohio Poly.)
02-14-2017 05:25 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-14-2017 12:11 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 11:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 04:18 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So quoting Dennis Dodd on twitter

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...obstacles/

A lot of interesting points about the financial realities of G5 FB. Frazier notes:

"It's the truth: We don't have an access [point] to the playoff," Frazier said. "The reality is when you say it publicly."

Frazier says 33 percent of his budget is balanced on the backs of student fees attached to tuition. While that's not rare at the mid-major level, it may not be sustainable.

"Right now, I'm not making any money. I'm paying money. I'm trying to figure out how to keep up with the Ohio States, the Michigans, and the Wisconsins, which is a pipe dream," he said.

From planet American:

"Zero interest in the concept," said Aresco, who has added on many occasions his belief the American is the sixth power conference.

(well 10 of 12 AAC members did apply to join the B12).

However reality probably best summed up here:

"The CFP does provide more to every Group of Five institution," Florida Atlantic AD Patrick Chun said. "The other reality is, I don't know if the Group of Five is that unified to get all five conference involved."

I think Frazier will get his wish, they'll talk about it. But I doubt his $160m valuation holds up. Networks will pay for P5 content, they will not pay for G5 (exception when one or two teams get hot, they'll pick up a game or two, like Houston this last year)

Fraziers whole problem is he is living in fantasy land. When the CFP deal was struck, the P5 was receiving a combined total of total of 1.1 billion a year from TV for their regular season rights. Their playoff was worth 470 million--or less than half the value of their total regular season.

My guess is that ratio would be a reasonable yard stick by which to measure the value of the G5 playoff. The G5 gets a combined 53 million a year for their regular season rights. Thus, their playoff would be worth around 25 million using the same ratio as the P5. That 160 million dollar figure is about as real as rock candy mountains and chocolate rivers.

My guess is you could get close to 25 million or more for a 3-bowl series of "Champions Bowls" pitting the G5 champs not in the access bowl against top selections from the P5 conferences not in a CFP sponsored bowl. The bowls would be owned by the G5 as a group.

#2 G5 champ vs highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#3 G5 champs vs 2ns highest P5 not in a CFP Bowl (4 million each)
#4 G5 champ vs #5 G5 champ (2 million each)

The rest of the TV rights money, ticket sales, and naming rights money is split evenly among the G5 schools.

That's more than most any non CFP bowl pays. The G5 vs P5 access bowls have commanded excellent audiences. Even the high level G5 vs G5 bowls have done pretty well (UH vs SDSU grabbed over 3.5 million viewers).

I think something like this that works within the existing FBS/CFP framework makes much more sense than any hair brained idea of a separate "playoff".

I think you are spot on about this. The G5 would be better trying to squeeze $50 million out of the networks to play P5 schools.

This way if you win your conference you are guaranteed in what would be perceived as a major bowl. The G5 would then need less of the lower tier bowl games.

Taking this year I could see interest in the MWC, AAC, CUSA, SBC champions against Top 20 P5 competition. People like novelty and Cinderella stories.
The AAC doesn't want anything to do with any of those scenarios. By any and all of the important matrix points the AAC is closer to the p5 than the g5,and that includes tv ratings. You will not see any nonsensical g5 coming together crap gaining any traction in the AAC, sorry. We haven't even had a chance to hit the open market for our second contract. The goal of the AAC is to be as close to the p5s as possible or bust. For anyone including Dodd whom continue to stare "10 of the 12 AAC SCHOOLS applied to the big12" . Well duh, what g5 program with a competent AD wouldn't try to take the fast track to financial security into any p5 conference 01-wingedeagle. Maybe the point should be that when the big12 thought about expanding they instinctively looked at the AAC's roster of programs first07-coffee3
02-14-2017 05:41 AM
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RE: Group of Five Playoff Idea not going away
(02-14-2017 05:25 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 04:59 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  Just for fun, here's how a Group of Five playoff would have looked in 2016.

No. 1 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Western Kentucky No. 3 Navy vs. No. 6 Houston
No. 4 South Florida vs. No. 5 San Diego State No. 2 Temple vs. No. 7 Boise State

BS No Sun Belt team in playoffs

That would have been awesome. I don't see anyone complaining about mid-major basketball polls and Bracketbuster series.

Whew,,, and people wonder why the AAC is trying to separate from the rest of the so-called g5 as fast as possible lol.
In four years the AAC' has
1-mens ncaa championship
4-women ncaa championships
2-ny6 bowl victories (along with several ranked teams yearly)
Several CWS contenders.
Money is the only common thread between the AAC and the other g5s, and with new contract negotiations coming up in 2years that may soon be changing that 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2017 05:58 AM by Tigersmoke3.)
02-14-2017 05:57 AM
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