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How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #1
How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Note, I thought I was posting on the AAC board when I posted this, but chime in if you want. How many bids for AAC and how difficult is it for Memphis and Houston to get in, outside of winning AAC.

With Cincinnati and SMU looking good for the tournament, what do we have to do to get Houston, Memphis, etc. in. Do they have to win the AAC tournament? Get to AAC finals? I was looking at Houston and Memphis RPI rankings and they are not that good, I think Houston's was in the 60s and Memphis in the 80s. But in ESPN's BPI index, Houston was like 33, so that was good. Which indexes do the committee go by, and how likely are some of these other teams to get in if they continue to play well. AAC needs to get at least 3 teams in.
(This post was last modified: 02-10-2017 10:52 AM by BullsFanInTX.)
02-10-2017 10:34 AM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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RE: Do we get 3-4 teams in tournament
Sorry, I thought I was posting on AAC board!!! But feel free to chime in!!!
02-10-2017 10:45 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Do we get 3-4 teams in tournament
Barring an upset in the conference tournament, the AAC is a 2-bid league.
02-10-2017 10:49 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Houston is interesting. If they could go 5-1 in last 6 games, with their great advanced metric numbers and what would then be a top 40 RPI, I think they would probably get in and actually fairly easily.
02-10-2017 10:56 AM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Yeah, Houston's looking strong in some of the numbers, so I was thinking they could get in, even if they don't win AAC tourn. Not sure why, but Memphis numbers seem to be really low, despite their good overall record.
02-10-2017 10:59 AM
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Pony94 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
2
02-10-2017 11:34 AM
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Wilkie01 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 10:49 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Barring an upset in the conference tournament, the AAC is a 2-bid league.

Agree 07-coffee3
02-10-2017 11:37 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Where's the marquee win for Houston? Rhode Island, especially when they were down a guy or two then, is not something to hang your hat on. Get those wins (yes, plural...both SMU at home and Cincy in their house will solidify any case they have).

I think Memphis looks more compelling. 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, of which, 2-3 of that mark is from the AAC (so 2-3 versus top 100 outside of the AAC). With Houston, their 4-5 is more like 2-1...it's all AAC for them. And, since when is Vermont EVER a good win?

It's early, but I think they're two bids unless Memphis or Houston grabs a win against SMU or UC, or someone makes the steal in the tournament...again, likely against SMU or Cincinnati. Those two basically own the conference.
02-10-2017 11:39 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
I think it's possible for Memphis or Houston to get an at large but both would need to nearly win out the regular season. If one wins the conference tourney they'll be 3 bids, otherwise 2
02-10-2017 11:59 AM
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HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
2
02-10-2017 12:19 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
2 or 3...depends on the tourney and how teams like UM and UH finish. The bubble is fairly weak this year.
02-10-2017 01:07 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #12
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 10:49 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Barring an upset in the conference tournament, the AAC is a 2-bid league.

Houston is currently 39 in Pomeroy. The next 5 games will strengthen their SOS:

@ Tulsa
SMU
UConn
@ Memphis
@ Cincy

If Houston holds serve at home (giving them a marquee win over SMU), and beats one of Tulsa or Memphis on the road (while losing at Cincy), their projected RPI heading into the conference tournament is 42.

In other words, Houston has a chance. But they have to win at least 3 of those 5 games.
02-10-2017 03:54 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.
02-10-2017 05:55 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 05:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.

There is no chance in hell that either Cincy or SMU get left out. NONE. Both are locks right now.
02-10-2017 05:58 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 05:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-10-2017 05:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.

There is no chance in hell that either Cincy or SMU get left out. NONE. Both are locks right now.

I think he was noodling the possibility of a 3rd AAC bid. I think "2nd bid" meant "2nd at-large." Read it that way and see if it makes more sense.
02-11-2017 04:28 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Two teams in, SMU and Cincy. A 3rd is possible if somebody other than those two win the AAC tournament. Same situation in the WCC where St. Mary's and Gonzaga are locks.

But I count those as the Mid-Major bailout slot or two they reserve in the at-large. 36 at-large total and I count 27 as locked for P6, more likely they get 29 at-large. Barring a upsets the AAC and WCC get 2 of the remaining 7 (one each), I see 2 more likely going to the MVC and A10 (one each). I think one other conference looked probable for a 2nd (MWC is iffy, but likely). As I said that leaves 2 for conference championship upsets.

Right now 2 bids. Conference Tourney upset could get a 3rd.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2017 04:47 PM by Stugray2.)
02-11-2017 04:46 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
4: Cincinnati (at-large), SMU (at-large), Houston (at-large, First Four), UCONN (auto-bid)

You're Welcome.
02-11-2017 04:47 PM
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ESE84 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 01:07 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  2 or 3...depends on the tourney and how teams like UM and UH finish. The bubble is fairly weak this year.

We had the same debate on the C-USA board about Middle Tennessee as an at large, and also noted the weak bubble. Maybe Middle Tennessee gets in because of their first round upset of 2 seed Michigan State in 2016, if they lose in the C-USA tournament?
02-11-2017 05:42 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-11-2017 04:46 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Two teams in, SMU and Cincy. A 3rd is possible if somebody other than those two win the AAC tournament. Same situation in the WCC where St. Mary's and Gonzaga are locks.

But I count those as the Mid-Major bailout slot or two they reserve in the at-large. 36 at-large total and I count 27 as locked for P6, more likely they get 29 at-large. Barring a upsets the AAC and WCC get 2 of the remaining 7 (one each), I see 2 more likely going to the MVC and A10 (one each). I think one other conference looked probable for a 2nd (MWC is iffy, but likely). As I said that leaves 2 for conference championship upsets.

Right now 2 bids. Conference Tourney upset could get a 3rd.

Good breakdown, but my guess is P5 gets more than 27-29, considering ACC alone could have up to 10 of those.
02-11-2017 05:58 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
I'm going with 3. Houston seems to be on the verge of making bubble noise. Especially if they can beat SMU at home.
02-11-2017 10:26 PM
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