(01-13-2017 06:02 PM)ucbrownsfan Wrote:  I just think this team is so hard to figure out, they have flashes of a top 5 team, they have bigs that can do it all, Jacob Evans can look like an NBA talent. Troy Caupain was preseason conference player of the year, and he can play well and still look like our 4th best starter at times. They also have long stretches of disappearing, a 21-0 run against samford, just seems impossible. It seems like when guys make a 3, they keep trying harder and harder shots until they miss a few in a row.

I'm sorry, but this team with these players and this coach are not now or will ever be this year a top 5 team. Next year.......

(01-13-2017 07:47 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  All I know is at the upcoming Temple game my daughter is getting honored again for being one of the Engineers of the Month for this year and I will not be able to be there to see it. So I am counting on all of you to actually pay attention and cheer her on for me. Oh, and I am counting on the team for a big win to keep her happy :)

That is excellent.....

(01-13-2017 07:31 PM)WalterSobchak Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 12:53 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  I think you guys and real time rpi are all overconfident. I'd love to see it but we are capable of losing several of these games. Hopefully we keep progressing and can win like these predictions but we've still got a lot of work to do. Way too early to be predicting domination the rest of the way.

I agree. I am just as fired up as everyone else but it takes a dominant team to run through a league undefeated. Last night was a 50/50 when all was said and done. That ball was about as far down as you can get and still pop out. Fortunately, as Jackie Treehorn would say, it was a real "dog in a bath tub" and we lucked out.

I don't think anyone expects UC to run the table. RPI forcast gives them an 8% chance of doing so. That said, UC will be favored in every game but SMU (and may even be slight favorites against SMU). I just don't get the negativity about this team. They've been a top 20 team by almost every objective measure all year (kenpom, sagarin, BPI). They got a big win last night in a game they lead throughout. I think it's incredibly likely they lose 3 or less the rest of the way. This is a damn good basketball team with room to improve.

Apparently Lebo is out for ECU... Not sure whether this is good for UC or not.

(01-13-2017 03:01 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 02:16 PM)payday Wrote:  Even on off days, I don't see any losses to the cellar dwellers

We almost got beat by Marshall at home a couple of weeks ago.

Yet we still won, didn't we? Besides, Marshall too would beat our cellar dwellers. They're a top 80 RPI team. Not a top 280.

(01-13-2017 08:22 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 07:31 PM)WalterSobchak Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 12:53 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  I think you guys and real time rpi are all overconfident. I'd love to see it but we are capable of losing several of these games. Hopefully we keep progressing and can win like these predictions but we've still got a lot of work to do. Way too early to be predicting domination the rest of the way.

I agree. I am just as fired up as everyone else but it takes a dominant team to run through a league undefeated. Last night was a 50/50 when all was said and done. That ball was about as far down as you can get and still pop out. Fortunately, as Jackie Treehorn would say, it was a real "dog in a bath tub" and we lucked out.

I don't think anyone expects UC to run the table. RPI forcast gives them an 8% chance of doing so. That said, UC will be favored in every game but SMU (and may even be slight favorites against SMU). I just don't get the negativity about this team. They've been a top 20 team by almost every objective measure all year (kenpom, sagarin, BPI). They got a big win last night in a game they lead throughout. I think it's incredibly likely they lose 3 or less the rest of the way. This is a damn good basketball team with room to improve.

The negativity is always there. It's just been hovering below the surface waiting for a loss to bust out. The Cats just haven't given them much opportunity this year.

(01-13-2017 07:47 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  All I know is at the upcoming Temple game my daughter is getting honored again for being one of the Engineers of the Month for this year and I will not be able to be there to see it. So I am counting on all of you to actually pay attention and cheer her on for me. Oh, and I am counting on the team for a big win to keep her happy :)

Count on me & congratulations to your daughter (and her parents)!

I thought I'd bump this thread. UC has played 4 since this started...won them all. (Still have USF for the "next 4 conference games"). RPI forecast now gives UC an 11% chance to run the table and 72% chance of losing 2 or less the rest of the way. Here's some more data on that:

Cincinnati

Conference: Amer
Expected RPI: 13.0
Current RPI: 13
Expected SOS: 67
Current SOS: 56
Current Record: 18-2
Expected Record: 27-4
Current Conf Record: 7-0
Expected Conf Record: 16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 8-0
Current OOC Record: 11-2
Expected OOC Record: 11-2
Expected OOC RPI: 13
Expected OOC SOS: 21

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
29-2 7.4 11.00%
28-3 10.1 29.30%
27-4 13.0 32.59%
26-5 16.6 18.95%
25-6 21.0 6.26%
24-7 26.0 1.68%
23-8 32.4 0.21%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Cincinnati.html

UC's defense has dropped I think largely to some very good shooting performances by some guys, but the offense is now up to top 40 kenpom (39). UC sits at 17 in kenpom and if the offensive efficiency we have seen lately continues they could end up a top 30 offense and possibly get to around top 10 in kenpom. This team as a top 30 caliber offense is a legitimate final four threat. Very exciting stuff right now. Hope we bring the offense on the road which has been this team's biggest weakness all year.

http://kenpom.com/

(01-27-2017 01:05 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I thought I'd bump this thread. UC has played 4 since this started...won them all. (Still have USF for the "next 4 conference games"). RPI forecast now gives UC an 11% chance to run the table and 72% chance of losing 2 or less the rest of the way. Here's some more data on that:

Cincinnati

Conference: Amer
Expected RPI: 13.0
Current RPI: 13
Expected SOS: 67
Current SOS: 56
Current Record: 18-2
Expected Record: 27-4
Current Conf Record: 7-0
Expected Conf Record: 16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 8-0
Current OOC Record: 11-2
Expected OOC Record: 11-2
Expected OOC RPI: 13
Expected OOC SOS: 21

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
29-2 7.4 11.00%
28-3 10.1 29.30%
27-4 13.0 32.59%
26-5 16.6 18.95%
25-6 21.0 6.26%
24-7 26.0 1.68%
23-8 32.4 0.21%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Cincinnati.html

UC's defense has dropped I think largely to some very good shooting performances by some guys, but the offense is now up to top 40 kenpom (39). UC sits at 17 in kenpom and if the offensive efficiency we have seen lately continues they could end up a top 30 offense and possibly get to around top 10 in kenpom. This team as a top 30 caliber offense is a legitimate final four threat. Very exciting stuff right now. Hope we bring the offense on the road which has been this team's biggest weakness all year.

http://kenpom.com/

Would be huge to win enough to get a 2-3 seed.

Theres a real good chance UC has 30 wins by selection Sunday with the conference tourney . Let that sink in.

Think about the difference between this team and Kilpatric's senior season team.

Caupain
Johnson
Evans
Clark
Washington

Guyn
Kilpatrick
Thomas
Rubles
Jackson

Add in Cumberland off the bench and it's clear to see how much better offensive playmakers they have now (outside of SK of course).

Winning the league co title with the defending national champion over the eventual national champion that year was a freaking miracle.

(01-27-2017 03:10 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  Winning the league co title with the defending national champion over the eventual national champion that year was a freaking miracle.

SK was brilliant. The defense was incredibly versatile and Justin Jackson was finishing around the basket throughout the middle of the season. UC had that incredible run to start conference play and I think it largely was because Jackson was playing great on both ends. He started struggling to finish late in the year and SK just did not have enough help on offense. I agree though, that team's run in the middle of the season leading to conference title was pretty unbelievable (and they were so close to beating U of L a second time for an outright title).

With being undersized with JJ and Titus and switching all ball screens that defense was insane. Even with getting upset in the first round (not much of an upset based on metrics) that's one of my favorite seasons with SKs run to 2k and the massive overachievement of tying for the league title.

(01-27-2017 04:48 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  With being undersized with JJ and Titus and switching all ball screens that defense was insane. Even with getting upset in the first round (not much of an upset based on metrics) that's one of my favorite seasons with SKs run to 2k and the massive overachievement of tying for the league title.

Agree, that team was much better than a first round exit imo. They were rough offensively and hit a funk at exactly the wrong time.

(01-27-2017 04:52 PM)apoe Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 04:48 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  With being undersized with JJ and Titus and switching all ball screens that defense was insane. Even with getting upset in the first round (not much of an upset based on metrics) that's one of my favorite seasons with SKs run to 2k and the massive overachievement of tying for the league title.

Agree, that team was much better than a first round exit imo. They were rough offensively and hit a funk at exactly the wrong time.

Didn't we learn after the fact that SK was having some injury issues late that year? Obviously nothing permanent as he's looking great now for the Nets. But he wasn't quite the same player by March Madness that year. Still an all-time favorite Bearcat of mine!

Let's hope this bunch can stay healthy... right through the Final Four.

(01-13-2017 11:08 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  The next 4 conference games...

@ECU
Temple
@Tulane
USF

needless to say if we are not 8-0 in the league after this next run , it will be a disappointment ? Three of those are just bad teams .

With Xavier in the middle of those UC will probably be looking at a gaudy 19-2 or 18-3 record.

Just keep winning....

Check.

The next four:

@Tulsa
UConn
UCF
@SMU

(01-29-2017 08:05 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 11:08 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  The next 4 conference games...

@ECU
Temple
@Tulane
USF

needless to say if we are not 8-0 in the league after this next run , it will be a disappointment ? Three of those are just bad teams .

With Xavier in the middle of those UC will probably be looking at a gaudy 19-2 or 18-3 record.

Just keep winning....

Check.

The next four:

@Tulsa
UConn
UCF
@SMU

@Tulsa will not be easy. If we can win the next 3 I will be impressed. I am anticipating a loss @SMU.

(01-29-2017 08:26 PM)jarr Wrote:  

(01-29-2017 08:05 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 11:08 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  The next 4 conference games...

@ECU
Temple
@Tulane
USF

needless to say if we are not 8-0 in the league after this next run , it will be a disappointment ? Three of those are just bad teams .

With Xavier in the middle of those UC will probably be looking at a gaudy 19-2 or 18-3 record.

Just keep winning....

Check.

The next four:

@Tulsa
UConn
UCF
@SMU

@Tulsa will not be easy. If we can win the next 3 I will be impressed. I am anticipating a loss @SMU.

i haven't seen much of UConn but apparently they are atrocious. That said, i expect them to come out guns blazing trying to play spoiler. They have nothing more to lose. A W against us would be yuge for them.

(01-29-2017 08:26 PM)jarr Wrote:  

(01-29-2017 08:05 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-13-2017 11:08 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  The next 4 conference games...

@ECU
Temple
@Tulane
USF

needless to say if we are not 8-0 in the league after this next run , it will be a disappointment ? Three of those are just bad teams .

With Xavier in the middle of those UC will probably be looking at a gaudy 19-2 or 18-3 record.

Just keep winning....

Check.

The next four:

@Tulsa
UConn
UCF
@SMU

@Tulsa will not be easy. If we can win the next 3 I will be impressed. I am anticipating a loss @SMU.

I predict 3-1 with the loss @SMU. Tulsa is now third in conference play but we should take them down in front of their capacity crowd.