Pure geography is our friend, TV ratings have and will always favor the AAC. If our loses happen to trigger a contract renegotiation then I say great. Grab SDSU,UNLV,CSU,FSU who all would get instant pay increases and real espn exposure simply by getting away from that horrible Boise state deal. This would also cement the AAC as the true tweener league REMBER NEW prime time slots that the mwc could never get

(07-24-2016 11:23 AM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  Pure geography is our friend, TV ratings have and will always favor the AAC. If our loses happen to trigger a contract renegotiation then I say great. Grab SDSU,UNLV,CSU,FSU who all would get instant pay increases and real espn exposure simply by getting away from that horrible Boise state deal. This would also cement the AAC as the true tweener league REMBER NEW prime time slots that the mwc could never get

The MWC deal is terrible but the AAC might be staring down the barrel at something worse...

(07-24-2016 11:12 AM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  Why is it that everyone keep overlooking the fact that the ACC'S new network is what triggered all of this. The new prime time slots that will open up can only be filled logically by one conference, the American people! The AAC's strength is in the # of teams that were rising and pulling in decent ratings. If Memphis, UC,UH leave you still would have USF,UCF,Temple,ECU with Tulsa rising. The mwc still couldn't match any of this.

Have not quite figured out why people think ESPN will have less ACC Content. In 2019, the ACC will no longer be playing on RSN or Raycom networks. Those games will move to the ACC network. More than likely the ACC will move to a nine game conference schedule. The exact same thing is what happened when the SEC network started up.

If UCONN, HOUSTON and CINCI leave, that will be huge TV markets lost. From a business perspective, ESPN will be in the driver's seat when the AAC has to renegotiate. Worse case scenario, the move MAC from weeknight games to weekend and SBC/CUSA goes to Tuesday & Wednesday games.

(07-24-2016 09:26 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:14 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  After discussing UTEP and Rice last December, the MW TV contract wouldn't be increased and won't be even if they added UH and SMU. The MW presidents are quite content with the current 12 team setup. I'm sure it would be discussed but with the CFP per conference payout @ $10 million, the TV contract threshold is fairly high bar to cross.
Any expansion by the MW won't be really an option until 2019 when the current TV contract ends in 2020.

Right.

There really is no need to combine the MWC/AAC schools when they both get separate CFP distributions. Splitting 10 million in guaranteed CFP money ect for a 18-20 team conference is stupid.

What makes more sense is to go in on a MWC/AAC joint TV deal that would have the strength of 5 time zones for the network looking to pick it up.

And picking off the best of CUSA (and possibly some from MAC) to further separate the AAC/MWC from the rest of the G5.

(07-24-2016 08:46 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Steve...maybe...but another option would be for a whole new league to form. I think if there is a split...the P4/5 will bring along 80 to 90 or so programs to the new scenario.

I could see "best and brightest" being grabbed from several conferences and Indies (UMass, Army, Air Force) into either one or two super G5 conferences.

Air Force is in the MWC and not an Indie.

(07-24-2016 11:36 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 11:12 AM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  Why is it that everyone keep overlooking the fact that the ACC'S new network is what triggered all of this. The new prime time slots that will open up can only be filled logically by one conference, the American people! The AAC's strength is in the # of teams that were rising and pulling in decent ratings. If Memphis, UC,UH leave you still would have USF,UCF,Temple,ECU with Tulsa rising. The mwc still couldn't match any of this.

Have not quite figured out why people think ESPN will have less ACC Content. In 2019, the ACC will no longer be playing on RSN or Raycom networks. Those games will move to the ACC network. More than likely the ACC will move to a nine game conference schedule. The exact same thing is what happened when the SEC network started up.

If UCONN, HOUSTON and CINCI leave, that will be huge TV markets lost. From a business perspective, ESPN will be in the driver's seat when the AAC has to renegotiate. Worse case scenario, the move MAC from weeknight games to weekend and SBC/CUSA goes to Tuesday & Wednesday games.

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard.

The MWC is not going to invite Tulsa or SMU. They will stay in the AAC no matter who leaves because their only alternatives are moving to the SBC or back to CUSA.

If Memphis, UC, UH leave a quick pick up of SDSU, Fresno, CSU,Airforce, would be considered genius by the AAC. They will have increased markets while killing off any competition for the NY6 spot. I would think that Aresco would actually ask for a renegotiation. The ACC will be giving up some time slots along with some open slots from the big10 new contract that the ACC was supposed to fill. It appears that espn is already working this plan with an eye on the AAC stepping up. I think the big12 sees this and intends to show espn by acquiring them to pay them for at least 3 of those teams at top dollar and keep most of the money for themselves while increasing inventory for another shot at forming a network.

(07-24-2016 12:32 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  If Memphis, UC, UH leave a quick pick up of SDSU, Fresno, CSU,Airforce, would be considered genius by the AAC. They will have increased markets while killing off any competition for the NY6 spot. I would think that Aresco would actually ask for a renegotiation. The ACC will be giving up some time slots along with some open slots from the big10 new contract that the ACC was supposed to fill. It appears that espn is already working this plan with an eye on the AAC stepping up. I think the big12 sees this and intends to show espn by acquiring them to pay them for at least 3 of those teams at top dollar and keep most of the money for themselves while increasing inventory for another shot at forming a network.

I agree with your theory Smoke, either the AAC or MWC should use this opportunity to cripple the other. Question which commish will make the move. AAC grabs the Teams you mentioned or MWC goes after Memphis, Tulane, SMU and NAVY for football only. Have CSU, Air Force, Boise & Utah St as one division the others in the west. There is really no schools left that moves tube markers in MAC/CUSA/SB that gets the AAC or MWC to that mythical P6 slot.

If the Big12 takes the three most often cited AAC schools (Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis) along with BYU, that leaves SMU and Tulsa in an odd position geographically - as no better fits in the AAC than with the MWC. Would they want to switch - maybe? But why would the MWC want/need SMU and Tulsa? They're at 12 already for FB - and about as compact as a western conference can be. I don't see the pressing need by the MWC to offer either a new home.

As far as competition: an AAC without Houston and Cincinnati doesn't leave a lot behind in football, and those two plus Memphis leaving hurts AAC basketball a lot. The MWC "wins" even without raiding the AAC.

The more interesting question is: what does the MWC do if they lose a team (or two) in the Big12 expansion?

The question if UConn. have not get chosen by the Big 12. Lets say it is Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and East Carolina? And Houston with a travel buddy go to the PAC 12. UMass., old Dominion, UTSA, Southern Mississippi and Northern Iowa or Toledo could go to the AAC. Adding Toledo brings the AAC back into the Ohio market.

(07-24-2016 01:55 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The question if UConn. have not get chosen by the Big 12. Lets say it is Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and East Carolina? And Houston with a travel buddy go to the PAC 12. UMass., old Dominion, UTSA, Southern Mississippi and Northern Iowa or Toledo could go to the AAC. Adding Toledo brings the AAC back into the Ohio market.

How did summer school go? Did you pass English? Just messing David...obviously you are typing on a phone....

(07-24-2016 01:55 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The question if UConn. have not get chosen by the Big 12. Lets say it is Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and East Carolina? And Houston with a travel buddy go to the PAC 12. UMass., old Dominion, UTSA, Southern Mississippi and Northern Iowa or Toledo could go to the AAC. Adding Toledo brings the AAC back into the Ohio market.

David I like it, subtly trolling StayCool

AAC Armageddon

1. ACC makes a surprise move, adds Cincinnati and UConn
2. Big 12 moves immediately to add Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF (for this we presume they can't/won't go west for expansion)
3. MWC offers Tulsa, SMU and Tulane (and reverses on Wichita State if they add FBS football)
4. AAC, now down to ECU, Navy and Temple, reorganizes as an East Coast conference and adds UMass, Army, ODU, Marshall, Appalachian State, Charlotte and 1-3 of the following schools: Buffalo, Ohio, JMU, Georgia State and Georgia Southern)
5. The remaining CUSA and Sun Belt schools and league administratiors have a Greyhound station meeting and reorganize along Southeast/Texas lines.

Not especially likely a scenario, but it's the only one I can think of that would give the MWC a puncher's chance at encroaching the AAC's western front.

(07-24-2016 10:54 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 10:44 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

The AAC has equal revenue sharing on the TV contract while the MWC does not. Even with 3-4 AAC defections the MWC would be no better because of the quality left behind in Temple, Navy, ECU ect.

The biggest barrier to entry for the AAC is that 40 million dollar budget. The AAC could end up offering a couple schools FB only if they have concerns about their other sports.

Then with FB-Only, the A10 or Horizon are leagues where a school can put their other sports. That favors a school like Marshall which has the geography for those leagues over a Southern Miss which is more limited in options.

If the AAC gets raided aren't the teams being talked about the "trigger" teams that would allow ESPN to renegotiate the TV contract?

If so that's the case you couldn't be more wrong. The AAC will be in big trouble at that point because the TV money isn't going to go up in that case. The MWC might start to look like a viable alternative for a school like SMU.

One saving grace: if ESPN decides to reopen the contract, the AAC could decline and would be a frees gent. Now normally that would not be a good thing. But that would allow a Hail Mary option: the AAC is a free agent, could reconfigure and join with the better MWC teams, and/or others and create the much proposed new best of the rest conference.


Note I am NOT claiming this to be q good idea, or a plan that should be emulated. But it is an option they could try at that point, to be the only free agent and get perhaps a better lineup.

(07-24-2016 03:05 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  AAC Armageddon

1. ACC makes a surprise move, adds Cincinnati and UConn
2. Big 12 moves immediately to add Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF (for this we presume they can't/won't go west for expansion)
3. MWC offers Tulsa, SMU and Tulane (and reverses on Wichita State if they add FBS football)
4. AAC, now down to ECU, Navy and Temple, reorganizes as an East Coast conference and adds UMass, Army, ODU, Marshall, Appalachian State, Charlotte and 1-3 of the following schools: Buffalo, Ohio, JMU, Georgia State and Georgia Southern)
5. The remaining CUSA and Sun Belt schools and league administratiors have a Greyhound station meeting and reorganize along Southeast/Texas lines.

Not especially likely a scenario, but it's the only one I can think of that would give the MWC a puncher's chance at encroaching the AAC's western front.

ACC very unlikely to add anyone. ND has first option for expansion and then it would be one team. Notre Dame has say with the other team. The only in the current footprint from the AAC would be Navy. Otherwise, the ACC looks west to Cincy, SMU or Memphis if they are still in the AAC.

(07-24-2016 03:05 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  AAC Armageddon

1. ACC makes a surprise move, adds Cincinnati and UConn
2. Big 12 moves immediately to add Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF (for this we presume they can't/won't go west for expansion)
3. MWC offers Tulsa, SMU and Tulane (and reverses on Wichita State if they add FBS football)
4. AAC, now down to ECU, Navy and Temple, reorganizes as an East Coast conference and adds UMass, Army, ODU, Marshall, Appalachian State, Charlotte and 1-3 of the following schools: Buffalo, Ohio, JMU, Georgia State and Georgia Southern)
5. The remaining CUSA and Sun Belt schools and league administratiors have a Greyhound station meeting and reorganize along Southeast/Texas lines.

Not especially likely a scenario, but it's the only one I can think of that would give the MWC a puncher's chance at encroaching the AAC's western front.

Instead of the infamous MWC airport meeting CUSA has to do a "Greyhound station meeting"--BawHahahahaha

Cheers!

(07-24-2016 09:07 AM)MJG Wrote:  They could but the TV contract would need to be changed Houston isn't kissing Boise's @ss .
Or most of the AAC are not bending over backwards for a school beneath them.
The AAC has tried to be as P5 as possible with so many former top level BCS/P5 type programs.
That explains Tulane over Southern Miss or they were SEC and have great academics.
Hard to argue that the conference should be P6 if you have directional commuter schools on it. (not saying Southern miss fits that but they had the best football history to be left out).
My guess is they hope to build and get better and better TV deals .
While being a strong athletic conference and argue for inclusion.

I could also see Hawaii ,CSU,UNM and San Diego ST joining and eight team AAC.
In an attempt to one day join the top level as the P6 conference.

And so they will take schools who best fit the conference profile , who have the best upside , strongest athletic departments, best markets etc. Raiding other conferences is a pipe dream. But if the mission is to continue to grow the conference into a power conference, there are options. Sadly not the ones people keep mentioning. The reality is that schools with $20M budgets are not getting added to a conference averaging $45M per school.

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Once the AAC gets raided, the MWC will have the upper hand

(07-24-2016 03:05 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 01:55 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The question if UConn. have not get chosen by the Big 12. Lets say it is Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and East Carolina? And Houston with a travel buddy go to the PAC 12. UMass., old Dominion, UTSA, Southern Mississippi and Northern Iowa or Toledo could go to the AAC. Adding Toledo brings the AAC back into the Ohio market.

David I like it, subtly trolling StayCool

Pony y u do dis? I thought we bonded over BBQ =*(

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