Though I am unsure of the tools used to create the simulations or how accurate they are, it certainly is interesting to at least see the probabilities based on 100 simulations.

I completed Apps schedule once using the tool and it simulated out to an 11-1 (8-0) season with the only loss coming to Tennessee. Though it is likely a loss against Miami and Georgia Southern could occur on any given game due to the percentage of games won and lost being split almost evenly.

Simulations

*Did not play stAte.

What fun ! App went 11-1 and then beat Marshall in our bowl game 25-10.

(07-07-2016 10:36 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  *Did not play stAte.

Holding onto the "*Did not play App" for you as well.

(07-07-2016 06:57 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  Though I am unsure of the tools used to create the simulations or how accurate they are, it certainly is interesting to at least see the probabilities based on 100 simulations.

I completed Apps schedule once using the tool and it simulated out to an 11-1 (8-0) season with the only loss coming to Tennessee. Though it is likely a loss against Miami and Georgia Southern could occur on any given game due to the percentage of games won and lost being split almost evenly.

Simulations

Using this site GS would go 11-1, with only a loss to Ole Miss by 3......interesting

I got 10-2 with losses to Arkansas State and Ole Miss

some notable wins though are @ Georgia Tech 27-26 and home against App State 22-12

After doing the 100 game average for both our losses:
against Arkansas State the average score would be 31-28 GS wins
against Ole Miss the avg score would be 37-23 Ole Miss wins

We beat NIU 28-12 in the GoDaddy bowl

I simulated Idaho's 2016 season using proprietary software and the Vandals went 14-0! National champions, baby!

September can't come fast enough.

(07-08-2016 11:18 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  I simulated Idaho's 2016 season using proprietary software and the Vandals went 14-0! National champions, baby!

September can't come fast enough.

I statted up the entire SBC as D&D characters and played out the season using a series of random tables. Forgot to keep track of records, but Penny Hart is now a level 4 paladin with a +3 broadsword and over 3000 gold pieces.

(07-08-2016 11:31 AM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 11:18 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  I simulated Idaho's 2016 season using proprietary software and the Vandals went 14-0! National champions, baby!

September can't come fast enough.

I statted up the entire SBC as D&D characters and played out the season using a series of random tables. Forgot to keep track of records, but Penny Hart is now a level 4 paladin with a +3 broadsword and over 3000 gold pieces.

Your paladin comes across a strong keep which has successfully repelled invaders for over 30 years. The commander of said keep was recently notified that he'll soon be in command of a keep elsewhere in the world and has severely neglected fortifications.

What would you like to do?

(07-08-2016 11:31 AM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 11:18 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  I simulated Idaho's 2016 season using proprietary software and the Vandals went 14-0! National champions, baby!

September can't come fast enough.

I statted up the entire SBC as D&D characters and played out the season using a series of random tables. Forgot to keep track of records, but Penny Hart is now a level 4 paladin with a +3 broadsword and over 3000 gold pieces.

You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

(07-08-2016 12:21 PM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

App's center probably went down in those other 28 matchups.

(07-08-2016 12:21 PM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 11:31 AM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 11:18 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  I simulated Idaho's 2016 season using proprietary software and the Vandals went 14-0! National champions, baby!

September can't come fast enough.

I statted up the entire SBC as D&D characters and played out the season using a series of random tables. Forgot to keep track of records, but Penny Hart is now a level 4 paladin with a +3 broadsword and over 3000 gold pieces.

You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

That means stAte won 28 times. Only 27 more to go.

(07-08-2016 12:38 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 12:21 PM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

App's center probably went down in those other 38 matchups.

And Southern's kicker probably had a laser in his eyes the 45 times Southern lost.

(07-08-2016 01:06 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 12:38 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 12:21 PM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

App's center probably went down in those other 28 matchups.

And Southern's kicker probably had a laser in his eyes the 45 times Southern lost.

Well duh or the ref missed an out of bounds call, and clearly forgot what constitutes a catch.

In all honesty though, this is going to be a REALLY interesting season in the SBC.

I don't see how any simulator can predict GS accurately unless purely by chance coincidence. They are just about a complete unknown... unknown coaches, unknown system, unknown secondary, unknown reaction to the probation. They SHOULD be able to run the ball effectively but the offensive coaches they hired aren't known for option based power running and that should have all GS fans freaked out.

(07-08-2016 12:38 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  

(07-08-2016 12:21 PM)Paraprosdokian Wrote:  You. I like you.

For the record, I pitted 2015 App against 2015 A-State and app won 72 out of 100. So I wouldn't bet the farm on this system.

App's center probably went down in those other 28 matchups.

(07-08-2016 09:02 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  

(07-07-2016 06:57 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  Though I am unsure of the tools used to create the simulations or how accurate they are, it certainly is interesting to at least see the probabilities based on 100 simulations.

I completed Apps schedule once using the tool and it simulated out to an 11-1 (8-0) season with the only loss coming to Tennessee. Though it is likely a loss against Miami and Georgia Southern could occur on any given game due to the percentage of games won and lost being split almost evenly.

Simulations

Using this site GS would go 11-1, with only a loss to Ole Miss by 3......interesting

Confirmation biased confirmed.

Hey, at least we can beat a P5:

South Alabama(2016) wins 75 of 100 matchups against Kansas(2016)
Projected Score: South Alabama 31 Kansas 25
Margin of Victory: 6 Points

(07-07-2016 10:36 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  *Did not play stAte.

Its okay, I projected 100 separate meetings between AState and App this year for fun. Each team won 50.

Okay...Here's what I got

Arkansas State 39 Toledo 23 (Woot)
Auburn 36 Arkansas State 10 (Yeah, I got confused here)
Utah State 32 Arkansas State 28 (Certainly possible)
Arkansas State 25 Central Arkansas 17 (I got really confused here)
Arkansas State 42 Georgia Southern 31 (So by score comparison, Central Arkansas> Georgia Southern)
Arkansas State 52 South Alabama 28 (So they have watched our games with USA?)
Arkansas State 50 UL Monroe 9 (They've seen us play ULM as well!)
Arkansas State 36 Georgia State 22 (Penny Hart has 3 TD's though)
Arkansas State 50 New Mexico State 17 (Larry Rose held to 31 yards)
Arkansas State 35 Troy 32 (That's like every year vs Troy)
ULL 36 Arkansas State 24 (Fans calling for Anderson's head after game?)
Arkansas State 56 Texas State 38 (Defenses need not apply?

Ohio 37 Arkansas State 28 (Fictional Bowl, probably with our coaches all gone.)