The first step toward finalization will be the sale of all or majority interest of the PAC network.

(12-13-2015 08:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  The first step toward finalization will be the sale of all or majority interest of the PAC network.

I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

(12-13-2015 09:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

How much do we know about the valuations that would lead the conferences to determine who adds to the bottom line and who does not?

I think it would have to be based on new markets and national appeal. That's just my guess though.

Let's say the SEC went after Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, and Florida State

West: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri
Central: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
East: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Atlantic: Florida State, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech

Let's say the Big Ten grabs Kansas, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech

The PAC 12 stays put, but a leftover conference emerges:

West: BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
South: Baylor, Houston, Miami, UCF, Louisville, Wake Forest
North: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College

(12-13-2015 09:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-13-2015 08:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  The first step toward finalization will be the sale of all or majority interest of the PAC network.

I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

JR, you almost have it right.

Your schools to the PAC are solid.

The B1G would get Kansas, Missouri, Virginia Tech and NC State.

The SEC would take Florida State, Louisville, West Virginia, Houston and Baylor.

Your "private league" would consist of:
Boston College, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, UConn, Temple, Cincinnati
UVa, Carolina, Dook, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami
You could add Army and Navy to get to 16 if you waned a rounder number, but I think that they would stay independent.

TCU and BYU would just fold into the American/MWC.

If push comes to shove, Carolina and UVa would be more likely to come down on the with the private/academic side as would Clemson (yes, Clemson!) and Georgia Tech.

(12-14-2015 03:53 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(12-13-2015 09:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

How much do we know about the valuations that would lead the conferences to determine who adds to the bottom line and who does not?

I think it would have to be based on new markets and national appeal. That's just my guess though.

Let's say the SEC went after Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, and Florida State

West: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri
Central: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
East: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Atlantic: Florida State, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech

Let's say the Big Ten grabs Kansas, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech

The PAC 12 stays put, but a leftover conference emerges:

West: BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
South: Baylor, Houston, Miami, UCF, Louisville, Wake Forest
North: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College

The numbers are at the top of the SEC board in an important thread called Realignment by the Numbers.

(12-14-2015 08:38 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-13-2015 09:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-13-2015 08:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  The first step toward finalization will be the sale of all or majority interest of the PAC network.

I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

JR, you almost have it right.

Your schools to the PAC are solid.

The B1G would get Kansas, Missouri, Virginia Tech and NC State.

The SEC would take Florida State, Louisville, West Virginia, Houston and Baylor.

Your "private league" would consist of:
Boston College, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, UConn, Temple, Cincinnati
UVa, Carolina, Dook, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami
You could add Army and Navy to get to 16 if you waned a rounder number, but I think that they would stay independent.

TCU and BYU would just fold into the American/MWC.

If push comes to shove, Carolina and UVa would be more likely to come down on the with the private/academic side as would Clemson (yes, Clemson!) and Georgia Tech.

If there was any reality in what you suggest I might take offense. But it is always the same old schtick. There is no way in hell that the SEC takes any of those you list other than possibly Florida State, and there is no way if we wait until the end of GOR's without the ACC having a network that you survive. And then if you decide to form your own new conference it won't be classified as a power conference for football even with Notre Dame.

In the end if we go down that path you will be forced to choose between the Big 10, the SEC, or obscurity.

Power conference for football?
The problem with that is: when we reach the end of the GORs,, the end of football as we have known it will be well in sight. What do you figure? 20 to thirty years from now? When that happens, will the crowds still come? Will football on the collegiate level still be marketable on TV? Will you have to ask permission to tackle someone without getting a penalty?

Maybe we will add Army and Navy. Navy does have a top notch lacrosse program!

(12-14-2015 03:53 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(12-13-2015 09:23 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I agree with the notion, but have one percentage of difference of opinion. Even if the PAC only sells 50% of their network I think it could be done, but agree that it is necessary.

They could theoretically sell 25% to FOX, 25% to ESPN and retain 50% and then accept the programs they need from the Big 12 to get it done.

Let's say the PAC takes Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Let's say the Big 10 takes Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech.

Let's say the SEC takes Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech.

Then let's form a new conference made primarily of privates and service academies:

Boston College, Miami, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse

Army, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Air Force, Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Louisville, T.C.U.

The New Conference forms a more balanced coalition of privates, 3 service academies whose missions are very similar, one quasi private/state in Pitt, and Louisville, West Virginia, Houston, and Connecticut to balance it out. Byt taking the most robust of the G5 to form this conference you form a better bell curve for wins and losses.

Now the P65 has become a P72. We have the structure to produce the CFP. And the privates have a better shot at getting a place plus they get their split of CFP revenue to assist their programs.

How much do we know about the valuations that would lead the conferences to determine who adds to the bottom line and who does not?

I think it would have to be based on new markets and national appeal. That's just my guess though.

Let's say the SEC went after Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, and Florida State

West: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri
Central: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
East: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Atlantic: Florida State, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech

Let's say the Big Ten grabs Kansas, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech

The PAC 12 stays put, but a leftover conference emerges:

West: BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
South: Baylor, Houston, Miami, UCF, Louisville, Wake Forest
North: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College

I could get behind that conference.

Once ESPN and FOX get their share of the PAC network and we move to a P4 instead of P5 what do you really expect to happen? Really happen, not just your message board wish list?

I believe that the networks will move to enhance their new product, which most likely means that both Texas and Oklahoma will move to the PAC in an attempt to garner large numbers of new network subscriptions not only in Texas and Oklahoma but to jump start the California market as well.
Kansas most likely heads to the B1G as there just is no cultural fit for the SEC.
The ACC? ESPN will try to enhance the ACC just like they will the PAC, because it's good business practice to reap as much income as possible from as many sources as possible.
What does this mean? There is no reason for ESPN to enhance the SEC where revenue for the SECN is already very strong and the fan base won't run from their conference even if they end up with two stinkers.
I think the PAC ends up with 18 teams, the B1G, SEC and ACC with 16. The ACC with Notre Dame and Cincinnati. The SEC with Baylor and West Virginia. The B1G with Iowa State and Kansas and the PAC gets the rest of the Big 12.

(12-14-2015 07:38 PM)XLance Wrote:  Once ESPN and FOX get their share of the PAC network and we move to a P4 instead of P5 what do you really expect to happen? Really happen, not just your message board wish list?

I believe that the networks will move to enhance their new product, which most likely means that both Texas and Oklahoma will move to the PAC in an attempt to garner large numbers of new network subscriptions not only in Texas and Oklahoma but to jump start the California market as well.
Kansas most likely heads to the B1G as there just is no cultural fit for the SEC.
The ACC? ESPN will try to enhance the ACC just like they will the PAC, because it's good business practice to reap as much income as possible from as many sources as possible.
What does this mean? There is no reason for ESPN to enhance the SEC where revenue for the SECN is already very strong and the fan base won't run from their conference even if they end up with two stinkers.
I think the PAC ends up with 18 teams, the B1G, SEC and ACC with 16. The ACC with Notre Dame and Cincinnati. The SEC with Baylor and West Virginia. The B1G with Iowa State and Kansas and the PAC gets the rest of the Big 12.

Hoss, with all due respect...most of that doesn't even make sense.

There's no reason for ESPN to diminish the value of any league that they want to survive. Baylor and WVU to the SEC? What does that even accomplish? The SEC isn't going to even consider those 2 unless they've got much bigger fish on the line. The SEC doesn't have to take anyone they don't want. I mean, shoot, if the SEC is just going to take any 2 on the board to get to 16 then there are several schools with more potential than those 2. Might as well take schools like ECU or UCF or Tulsa or Cincy.

It makes sense that some Big 12 schools would move West, but no one is going to do it for less money. It's entirely probable that a PAC 12 Network even with OU and UT will still be less profitable than the BTN or the SECN especially if the PAC has to take little brothers to make it happen. That will further hurt the bottom line. Yeah, the PAC 12 wants a move like that for their own betterment, but no one else profits from it and certainly not ESPN even if they obtain a percentage of the PAC 12 Networks. ESPN might as well try to save the Big 12 and give them a network by forcing FSU, Clemson, and a few others to move to the Big 12.

I think ESPN definitely wants a slice of the PAC 12 Network, but they have no motivation to damage their other products to make it work. Might as well let FOX get stuck with it or if the product is truly valuable then it should be able to stand on its own two feet without disrupting the other conferences.

The SEC and the B1G have absolutely nothing to gain from parsing out a few Big 12 leftovers so the PAC 12 can get stronger or so the Big 12 can find homes for the requisite 8 number to disband. Even a move with Kansas doesn't do much for the B1G if they have to double down in a small market like IA.

(12-15-2015 02:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(12-14-2015 07:38 PM)XLance Wrote:  Once ESPN and FOX get their share of the PAC network and we move to a P4 instead of P5 what do you really expect to happen? Really happen, not just your message board wish list?

I believe that the networks will move to enhance their new product, which most likely means that both Texas and Oklahoma will move to the PAC in an attempt to garner large numbers of new network subscriptions not only in Texas and Oklahoma but to jump start the California market as well.
Kansas most likely heads to the B1G as there just is no cultural fit for the SEC.
The ACC? ESPN will try to enhance the ACC just like they will the PAC, because it's good business practice to reap as much income as possible from as many sources as possible.
What does this mean? There is no reason for ESPN to enhance the SEC where revenue for the SECN is already very strong and the fan base won't run from their conference even if they end up with two stinkers.
I think the PAC ends up with 18 teams, the B1G, SEC and ACC with 16. The ACC with Notre Dame and Cincinnati. The SEC with Baylor and West Virginia. The B1G with Iowa State and Kansas and the PAC gets the rest of the Big 12.

Hoss, with all due respect...most of that doesn't even make sense.

There's no reason for ESPN to diminish the value of any league that they want to survive. Baylor and WVU to the SEC? What does that even accomplish? The SEC isn't going to even consider those 2 unless they've got much bigger fish on the line. The SEC doesn't have to take anyone they don't want. I mean, shoot, if the SEC is just going to take any 2 on the board to get to 16 then there are several schools with more potential than those 2. Might as well take schools like ECU or UCF or Tulsa or Cincy.

It makes sense that some Big 12 schools would move West, but no one is going to do it for less money. It's entirely probable that a PAC 12 Network even with OU and UT will still be less profitable than the BTN or the SECN especially if the PAC has to take little brothers to make it happen. That will further hurt the bottom line. Yeah, the PAC 12 wants a move like that for their own betterment, but no one else profits from it and certainly not ESPN even if they obtain a percentage of the PAC 12 Networks. ESPN might as well try to save the Big 12 and give them a network by forcing FSU, Clemson, and a few others to move to the Big 12.

I think ESPN definitely wants a slice of the PAC 12 Network, but they have no motivation to damage their other products to make it work. Might as well let FOX get stuck with it or if the product is truly valuable then it should be able to stand on its own two feet without disrupting the other conferences.

The SEC and the B1G have absolutely nothing to gain from parsing out a few Big 12 leftovers so the PAC 12 can get stronger or so the Big 12 can find homes for the requisite 8 number to disband. Even a move with Kansas doesn't do much for the B1G if they have to double down in a small market like IA.

I think from the numbers two years ago, last year, and the ones just coming out this year that there are only two schools that add to the SEC's bottom line in any kind of significant way that could come from the Big 12: Texas and Oklahoma. There is only one school that would add to the SEC's bottom line on simply their brand from the ACC: Florida State. But that addition would be so slight that only as a pairing mate with one that added significantly would they be considered. There are two variations of schools that add to the SEC's total market value and therefore would be worthwhile additions from the ACC: A state school from Virginia and a state school from North Carolina add significantly under the market model. If we move to simply streaming they don't.

Clemson is a NET neutral. They too could serve as a travel companion for a brand that adds value.

In looking at the numbers the safest additions for future value would be Texas and Oklahoma as they are content multipliers for the stellar existing SEC content. Their attendance would not detract from our mean, and both schools travel very well. North Carolina is a content multiplier for basketball and therefore only worth 1/3rd as much to us as a content multiplier. Kansas would be the same. Kansas however would detract from our attendance numbers in football, would not fit culturally, would not travel well for football, and IMO would never fit comfortably within our ranks.

So again if we add just two and do so without the affects of GOR's weighing upon our decisions then our options in prioritized order would be:
1. Oklahoma (Brand & new state)
2. Texas (Brand & Academics)
3. North Carolina (Large Market & Basketball Brand & Academics)
4. Virginia Tech (Large Market & Regional Football Brand)
5. Virginia (Large Market & Academics)
6. N.C. State (Large Market)
7. Florida State (Brand & cultural fit)
8. Duke (Basketball Brand & Academics)
9. Oklahoma State (Likely only as a travel mate but does deliver DFW)
10. Clemson (Likely only as a travel mate, regional brand, cultural fit)

The likelihood of expanding with schools below the 6th position is very slim and would likely only occur should there be a much larger move by other conferences thereby forcing us to protect our region, or if brokered moves occur at the behest of the networks.

IMO Baylor is only viable in a brokered move. T.C.U. is not viable if an Oklahoma school is involved in future expansion.

For all of those who think of schools like East Carolina, Memphis, Cincinnati, etc. simply look at the numbers. They do not meet the SEC mean for revenue, attendance, viewership, or academically. They detract from our bottom line.

IMO if a move is brokered to eliminate the Big 12 we will likely get either Oklahoma, or Texas, but not both and Oklahoma is much more likely than Texas. Then we get another Big 12 school depending on who either Texas or Oklahoma wants to travel with them.

If the ACC is brokered then we could get as many as 4 additions and again who we get depends upon who the first two schools who accept are. If we were to get North Carolina and Virginia then expect to add Duke and Georgia Tech as we would be adding for academic standing as much as for markets. If we get N.C. State and Virginia Tech we might stand pat at 16, or if other conferences were growing larger we could pick up Clemson and Florida State to protect our region and brand.

I don't see us adding West Virginia unless we were to move to a conference size of 20 - 24 which I consider to be very unlikely. Remember again somebody has to be willing to pay for a TV contract that would up the pay to such schools by almost 20 million above what they presently pay for those schools. I don't see that happening.

A network however might love to have Clemson & Florida State added in with the markets of Virginia and North Carolina for the SEC. Clemson & F.S.U. are content multipliers and in a world moving toward streaming those additions become far more valuable.

To recap if we expand again and do so out of the Big 12 I look for us to add Oklahoma and probably Oklahoma State.

If we expand out of the ACC I would expect many of their programs to be moving somewhere. So if North Carolina moves to the SEC then look for Duke as a requirement and Virginia might tag along. Georgia Tech would be protected in that move due to academics.

If the teams are N.C. State & Virginia Tech then we essentially lock down the Southeast by adding Clemson & Florida State. At that juncture Georgia Tech and Miami as football brands won't be significant as isolated schools within the footprint of a more solidified SEC.

The only way I see us moving to 20 is if both the Big 12 and ACC are dissolved.

Now go look at the numbers again and you will see why these scenarios are the only ones that realistically have any statistical chance of every happening because they are the only ones that could be profitable for the new schools and for the SEC's existing membership.

Now there is the other side of equation to figure into the above post. What would ESPN want?

1. The only way the ACC gets parsed is if the sum of their parts is worth more to ESPN than they are as a collection. So, how could this happen? It happens if schools presently in the ACC are more valuable in the Big 10, ACC, or SEC. I believe that the argument for that being true can already be made, but would be changed to the negative should Notre Dame and/or a school like Texas joins the ACC in full. Get the value in broadcast rights relatively close in value to that of the Big 10 or SEC and the ACC is worth keeping.

2. Let's assume that neither N.D. nor Texas joins the ACC. The big question then is what does ESPN think that they can gain by having certain brands in either the Big 10 or SEC? Does the basketball value of North Carolina and Duke enhance a property that they have the majority interest in like the SEC, or does it gain them more influence over one that they don't have majority interest in, like the Big 10?

I think they will want to protect their best brands by keeping a higher % of ownership in them. Therefore I think they let Duke, North Carolina and Virginia come to the SEC. Virginia Tech more closely fits the Big 10 model, except for the all important AAU status. Because of this if the Big 10 doesn't really make ESPN a great offer, I don't think any present AAU schools in the ACC ever move to the Big 10. If the Big 10 makes the offer I think their 4 would be Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and that point likely Notre Dame. The Irish will need a place to park it's minor sports and the mix would be right, especially with the other three schools making the move.

Should that happen then the SEC makes the move for markets and maybe stops at 16, especially if Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State and Clemson move to the Big 12. If the Big 10 looks to move further South, then I think we take 4 to possibly 6 to secure our region.

However, I don't think it ever comes to that. I could see Virginia Tech and Syracuse providing Delany the markets he wants to the East. I think then they turn their attention to the West for final expansion.

So ESPN would IMO encourage North Carolina and Duke (perhaps Virginia) to make the move to the SEC. The need to add even more brands to the SEC would not be there should the Big 12 still remain. Owning the majority interest in Texas an encouragement of at least 6 schools to then make the move to the Big 12 would only enhance the content value they would have in the Big 12.

If however the Big 12 disintegrates along with the ACC all bets are off as to placement. If the PAC yields on network rights Texas and a large contingent could be off to the PAC. The SEC might will move to 20 to protect branding and their control of the region. Would it be profitable to do so? Yes, from a content perspective, no from a market perspective. That's when I could see us taking Clemson and Florida State along with some version of North Carolina and Virginia schools.

But no matter how you figure it, if a pair or more of the top 6 targets listed are not involved I don't think we do anything. It simply wouldn't be economically feasible.

Personally, I would love to see the ACC stabilized by the addition of Notre Dame and another school, the SEC bolstered by Oklahoma and a traveling mate, Kansas to the Big 10 where they belong, and Texas and their in state little brothers off to the PAC. I just don't think that will happen exactly that way either. We'll see.

Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

The SEC is a big boy league now and is able to generate their own income through the SECN that ESPN allowed to develop. The SEC is on their own so to speak. They have their markets defined and have become profitable for their Conference and for the Mouse.
ESPN will now focus their resources on other projects and help them develop into more profitable investments.

(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.

(12-16-2015 06:02 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.

White whale or not, should the ACC go away I think their options for the CFP goes with them unless they go all in somewhere.

(12-16-2015 06:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 06:02 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Yeah, most of my posts are for my own entertainment anyway.

I think Oklahoma is headed our way. I've just about talked myself into thinking Texas is coming with them. Looking at things from UT's perspective, there really isn't a better option if the Big 12 falls apart and they aren't going to stick around while OU is bailing.

Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC
Kansas and UConn to the B1G
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston to the PAC

Perhaps another round happens later if the ACC doesn't get their network. Question though, is the ACC GOR in any way dependent on them getting a network? Does anyone really think the ACC will get a network at this point? I have my doubts, but I'm having a hard time believing that ESPN is going to sell off its spare parts right now.

there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.

White whale or not, should the ACC go away I think their options for the CFP goes with them unless they go all in somewhere.

If the P5 becomes the P5, I would expect ND to try and get in via the selection committee for a few years before re-accessing their situation.

(12-16-2015 07:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 06:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 06:02 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 11:50 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:  there was a recent report from the GT AD that ESPN asked to delay the ACCN launch for a 2 years to make sure everything was done the right way and they didn't lose money out of the gate. there wasn't much detail on what needed to be done, but one would think it would pertain to buying rights back (something the sec did prior to launching their network), negotiation for carriage fees, etc. the spin on that report ranged from "the sky is falling" from those that want the acc to dissolve to unicorns and fairies from the some of the more avid acc kool aid drinkers. the truth probably lies somewhere in between. a simple reading of the report would indicate that the two parties have indeed decided to pursue a channel. that would be consistent with previous public statements from acc ADs that the channel would be viable and a good revenue source. it is also possible that ESPN is stonewalling and has no intention of starting a ACCN. that would make their request for a delay blatantly dishonest. maybe I'm not cynical enough, but blatant dishonest negotiations doesn't seem plausible.

my theory is that ESPN wants the acc to remain intact so they can have the best football and basketball content for year round ratings. having defections would drastically degrade the basketball product. in order for that to happen, ESPN will have to keep the acc competitive in revenue, whether that be with a channel or with other revenue sources. if not, there will be defections. it's that simple. in financial terms, we now have the P2 - SEC and B1G. the other 3 will probably never match those 2 in revenue and are just trying to remain competitive.

Ren. ESPN can't afford to start a network for the ACC without full inclusion of Notre Dame. Outside of Carolina and Duke in hoops and perhaps F.S.U. in football, there are no national brands to carry the conference nationally. The conference is too private heavy and privates tend to have small fan bases.

The way I read the stall is this, ESPN wants to keep pressure on N.D. and perhaps even Texas. Add those two and your network goes national. It's that simple. If not then ESPN uses that time to work with the SEC on a a merger of core ACC properties and/or Texas to keep the product they want under the highest % of obligation to them.

What they won't do is lose their best hoops programs to the Big 10 and FOX. They know they will eventually have to up the pay for Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Syracuse.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, N.C. State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville aren't that valuable to them as individual pieces.

Send N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, and B.C. to the Big 12 and what you have is a better showcase for Texas and Oklahoma and West Virginia finally makes some sense. Send Virginia Tech and Syracuse to the Big 10 for contract rights. Delany gets his Eastward expansion and the markets he wants.

Send Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC and multiply your investment in those schools and those of the SEC many times over. Then the question becomes who does N.D. want to be a part of? The Big 10? Or, perhaps a much broader and more academically sound SEC? I'm betting N.D. would opt for Southern recruiting and the Academic alliance, lacrosse, and Olympic sports they share with Duke, UNC, & UVa.

It sounds wild I know, but it is about multiplying brand value, and keeping profits in house for the Mouse.

Now ESPN has in one 20 school conference everything it could want without having to have a startup of a network, just the expansion of an existing successful one.

Add to that the fact that the SEC is in partnership with the Big 12 for postseason play already and ESPN via a converted LHN would now have majority interest in the two most productive sports regions and over half of the present P4 product, Including all but 4 of the top 15 money makers.

Notre Dame will just rejoin the AAC or similar league, and stay indy in football. They are the white whale and appear to have a shot at getting into the CFP without a conference championship. If anything, their schedule would have greater flexibility without 4 or 5 ACC required games to play.

White whale or not, should the ACC go away I think their options for the CFP goes with them unless they go all in somewhere.

If the P5 becomes the P5, I would expect ND to try and get in via the selection committee for a few years before re-accessing their situation.

The P5 is the P5. The only question is whether it becomes the P4 or P3. Time, monetary disparity, and the pressure to compete will decide that issue.

Maybe Texas fancies itself as Snow White (surrounded by dwarfs), but OU does not. Therein lies the fuse that could blow the Big 12 apart.

Florida State and Clemson will not be content to sit idly by and let the gap grow in revenue with their in state rivals. Couple that with the shenanigans at UNC academically and you have a volatile mixture within the ACC. If Notre Dame or another big draw school like Texas refuse to join the ACC in full and therefore the national audience is not in the bag for an ACCN then therein lies the fuse that can ignite that simmering mixture within the ACC.

The Big 10, SEC, and PAC might have some minor issues but nothing that can blow them apart. In that regard all 3 are extremely stable. More importantly all 3 need only do nothing as the present momentum each has will only build pressure within the other two. Time is truly on their side.