(12-07-2015 01:13 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:05 PM)WIowl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:04 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Current team performance is not directly relevant to decisions on who to invite.

I disagree. If Rice had been winning CUSA and not going 2-10, 4-8, 4-8 with Bailiff, Rice would be in the AAC now.

Not unless winning C-USA led to a substantial increase in ticket and television revenue. That's why I said performance isn't directly relevant. Conferences don't care about winning and losing in choosing who to invite, only the revenue and self-interest of each program matter.

Do you really, seriously believe that if Rice had been winning, or seriously contending for, CUSA championships in those years, then our attendance and revenues would not have been substantially higher? If you do, don't waste both our time trying to convince me. Houston is a front-runner sports town, maybe more than anywhere else I know. Always has been, probably always will be. I think it's because so many people are from elsewhere, that there are no long term ties to any team, so they jump on the back of whoever is winning.

UH isn't filling TDECU because their alumni are rabid supporters. They're filling it because they're 12-1. If we were 12-1 we'd see comparably sized crowds at HRS, particularly if we were doing it year in and year out.

That's a challenge and an opportunity. The "Rice way" disregarded that, and counted on opponents to bring the crowd. That sorta worked as long as Texas and LSU were in the schedule, but doesn't work so well without them. We never tried to build a RICE following. Now we have no alternative. Winning doesn't get us all the way there, but it's an essential first step, jointly with facility improvement.

Now that may be getting harder, because nobody including our own fans cares about the teams we are playing. The way to get us playing teams that we care about again is to start caring about those teams that we don't care about.

(12-07-2015 02:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:13 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:05 PM)WIowl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:04 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Current team performance is not directly relevant to decisions on who to invite.

I disagree. If Rice had been winning CUSA and not going 2-10, 4-8, 4-8 with Bailiff, Rice would be in the AAC now.

Not unless winning C-USA led to a substantial increase in ticket and television revenue. That's why I said performance isn't directly relevant. Conferences don't care about winning and losing in choosing who to invite, only the revenue and self-interest of each program matter.

Do you really, seriously believe that if Rice had been winning, or seriously contending for, CUSA championships in those years, then our attendance and revenues would not have been substantially higher? If you do, don't waste both our time trying to convince me. Houston is a front-runner sports town, maybe more than anywhere else I know. Always has been, probably always will be. I think it's because so many people are from elsewhere, that there are no long term ties to any team, so they jump on the back of whoever is winning.

UH isn't filling TDECU because their alumni are rabid supporters. They're filling it because they're 12-1. If we were 12-1 we'd see comparably sized crowds at HRS, particularly if we were doing it year in and year out.

That's a challenge and an opportunity. The "Rice way" disregarded that, and counted on opponents to bring the crowd. That sorta worked as long as Texas and LSU were in the schedule, but doesn't work so well without them. We never tried to build a RICE following. Now we have no alternative. Winning doesn't get us all the way there, but it's an essential first step, jointly with facility improvement.

I agree with everything you say.

Also, whether it's enough to get to a P5 or not, I want Rice to build winning programs and stop settling for mediocrity and looking for others to sponge off of.

I was commenting on Rice being 5-7 this year as not being particulary significant to conference alignment because it's just another note in the varying shades of mediocrity.

Another possibility would be AAC attempting a raid on the MWC - Colorado State and Air Force. That might be the worst case scenario - no AAC spots opening up and a weakened MWC maybe deciding to add some Texas schools?

Several thoughts:
1. I think the anti-UH feeling is still very alive at UT. Perhaps even more now that UH wants a med school (and for the record their idea of a med school basically for primary care MD's is a pipe dream) and now UT has bought the old Holmes Road Dump area to expand their med school footprint and that has UH Po'ed so I think the Regents on both sides wouldn't look to sponsor or even vote for UH in the B12...more likely UT would blackball UH's entry attempt into the B12.

2. While I am not happy with JK not making a coaching change I think it is more than silly to say that JK=RG in terms of what they have done. The EZF alone gives the nod to JK. So much of what has gone on is behind the scenes trying to correct policies that Owl69.. has talked about for a long time. I do think he needs to be more visible to the entire Rice athletic base. He is approachable but I would like to see a more open dialogue.

3. I actually like the comment that Rice is less threatening to the other B12 members in terms of recruiting.

(12-07-2015 02:39 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Another possibility would be AAC attempting a raid on the MWC - Colorado State and Air Force. That might be the worst case scenario - no AAC spots opening up and a weakened MWC maybe deciding to add some Texas schools?

That would be a nightmare scenario, but I think unlikely. While AF would be fine headed east or west with recruiting and market presence, I think Colorado State has too much to lose without games in Cali and Nevada. (Plus they have easy travel games with Wyo, AF, UNM and Utah State.

(12-07-2015 04:13 PM)WTXOwl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 02:39 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Another possibility would be AAC attempting a raid on the MWC - Colorado State and Air Force. That might be the worst case scenario - no AAC spots opening up and a weakened MWC maybe deciding to add some Texas schools?

That would be a nightmare scenario, but I think unlikely. While AF would be fine headed east or west with recruiting and market presence, I think Colorado State has too much to lose without games in Cali and Nevada. (Plus they have easy travel games with Wyo, AF, UNM and Utah State.

Yes and no. CSU does recruit heavily for football in CA, but its second biggest out of state focus is Texas. 13 Texans on the current roster. The next biggest state is Florida with a paltry 3.

And for MBB, Texas is by far the biggest focus for recruitment.

Add to the mix the number of displaced Texans and Mid-Westerners on the Front Range (huge number of Jayhawks, Cornhuskers, and Longhorns), and it's not hard to see why CSU could be a prime candidate to help the Big 12 claw its way back into the Colorado market.

The rivalry with Wyoming would be hard to break, but your average CSU fan would still sell their mother for entry to the Big 12. With the new (on campus) stadium being built, there's a genuine feeling here (I live just outside Fort Collins) that CSU is building to be part of a P5 conference - and won't be happy staying in the MW for much longer.

I know it is classic Parliament to focus on our weaknesses (vs. strengths) while focusing on others strengths (vs. weaknesses). A couple contrarian thoughts/kool-aid on this topic. Some have been discussed before, other not so much.

- I do remember RG telling me directly years ago that the Big XII Presidents (OU in particular) really dislike Houston and ‘commuter schools’ in general. There is a very negative reaction and bad blood there. Not that RG made anything happen but he does/did know a lot of people. Does not mean that Memphis or Houston won’t be considered but important to recognize they have unique challenges as well...albeit different ones than Rice. Grass is not necessarily greener. Leebron also knows the Big XII Presidents from various committees and has good relationships there.

- Big XII commish (Bowlsby) is JK’s old boss who clearly gets what Rice is about. Not a politics/personal connection problem.

- With the trends in FB/MBB scheduling (and perhaps rules) about scheduling more P5 vs. FCS and G5 games, putting Rice in a conference is not a bad thing from the Big XII perspective.

- No academic anchor tenant in Big XII. Big XII needs/wants their reputation improved. Rice clearly helps.

- ESPN is losing their shorts financially on LHN. The biz case failed for many reasons but ultimately ESPN misjudged the calculus on the cable networks that would sign on and those that did, the amount they would pay. They thought their brand could pull through and it did not. I do see the Worldwide Leader trying to eventually expand to a Big XII network to cast a wider net to capture more revenue while still guaranteeing Horns their $$. They are doing it for SEC and ACC and thus model is there to copy. Having Houston TV sets for that monthly sub fee to charge to cable subs is big $. That is exactly logic Big 10 used for Rutgers and Maryland who hardly ‘own’ the NY and DC markets. But it is rationale for the per sub fee for charging.

- Recruiting in H-Town is key for all Big XII. Nothing like visiting/playing in the market to help. I know some concern that they are losing recruiting/H-Town to the SEC (A&M and LSU).

- Facilities improving to be competitive. Need those to get a ticket nowadays and it is in progress at EZF, Soccer, Track, etc. and addressed with Tudor, Reckling, and Tennis.

- Lots of alums for all Big XII schools in H-Town. That matters more than a Memphis or Provo.

Bottom line is that this is clearly a Rice kool-aid version and winning/being competitive is key but I would not put winning as ‘the’ deciding factor. It is just ‘a’ factor. Many factors both quantitative and qualitative that go into the decision process. Unfortunate for them, but So. Miss, Marshall, WKU, La Tech, etc. can win 100 C-USA championships but they are not getting an invite unless they pull a miracle and figure-out how to get a national following like a Boise, BYU, etc.

That is what is so frustrating about this year. We had a chance to show we belong in the Big XII and laid eggs. If we win @ Texas and competitive against Baylor…then we can have a real conversation vs. a kool-aid one as we are in great position with the other criteria required.

(12-07-2015 04:13 PM)WTXOwl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 02:39 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Another possibility would be AAC attempting a raid on the MWC - Colorado State and Air Force. That might be the worst case scenario - no AAC spots opening up and a weakened MWC maybe deciding to add some Texas schools?

That would be a nightmare scenario, but I think unlikely. While AF would be fine headed east or west with recruiting and market presence, I think Colorado State has too much to lose without games in Cali and Nevada. (Plus they have easy travel games with Wyo, AF, UNM and Utah State.

The nightmare scenario has already taken place ... which was The Conference Formerly Known As The Big East raiding CUSA 2.0 and leaving Rice behind. I referred to this as the nightmare scenario 18 months before it occurred.

Even my nightmare did not contemplate an invite for Tulane.

And, as feared, we are now in a complete dumpster fire of a conference.

You guys be careful not to get too excited about all this realignment stuff. Rice isn't getting into any P5, and any G5 it may move to is going to be weakened and watered-down. After the moves are made, there won't be much left of the AAC.

(12-07-2015 04:56 PM)owl40 Wrote:  I know it is classic Parliament to focus on our weaknesses (vs. strengths) while focusing on others strengths (vs. weaknesses). A couple contrarian thoughts/kool-aid on this topic. Some have been discussed before, other not so much.

- I do remember RG telling me directly years ago that the Big XII Presidents (OU in particular) really dislike Houston and ‘commuter schools’ in general. There is a very negative reaction and bad blood there. Not that RG made anything happen but he does/did know a lot of people. Does not mean that Memphis or Houston won’t be considered but important to recognize they have unique challenges as well...albeit different ones than Rice. Grass is not necessarily greener. Leebron also knows the Big XII Presidents from various committees and has good relationships there.

- Big XII commish (Bowlsby) is JK’s old boss who clearly gets what Rice is about. Not a politics/personal connection problem.

- With the trends in FB/MBB scheduling (and perhaps rules) about scheduling more P5 vs. FCS and G5 games, putting Rice in a conference is not a bad thing from the Big XII perspective.

- No academic anchor tenant in Big XII. Big XII needs/wants their reputation improved. Rice clearly helps.

- ESPN is losing their shorts financially on LHN. The biz case failed for many reasons but ultimately ESPN misjudged the calculus on the cable networks that would sign on and those that did, the amount they would pay. They thought their brand could pull through and it did not. I do see the Worldwide Leader trying to eventually expand to a Big XII network to cast a wider net to capture more revenue while still guaranteeing Horns their $$. They are doing it for SEC and ACC and thus model is there to copy. Having Houston TV sets for that monthly sub fee to charge to cable subs is big $. That is exactly logic Big 10 used for Rutgers and Maryland who hardly ‘own’ the NY and DC markets. But it is rationale for the per sub fee for charging.

- Recruiting in H-Town is key for all Big XII. Nothing like visiting/playing in the market to help. I know some concern that they are losing recruiting/H-Town to the SEC (A&M and LSU).

- Facilities improving to be competitive. Need those to get a ticket nowadays and it is in progress at EZF, Soccer, Track, etc. and addressed with Tudor, Reckling, and Tennis.

- Lots of alums for all Big XII schools in H-Town. That matters more than a Memphis or Provo.

Bottom line is that this is clearly a Rice kool-aid version and winning/being competitive is key but I would not put winning as ‘the’ deciding factor. It is just ‘a’ factor. Many factors both quantitative and qualitative that go into the decision process. Unfortunate for them, but So. Miss, Marshall, WKU, La Tech, etc. can win 100 C-USA championships but they are not getting an invite unless they pull a miracle and figure-out how to get a national following like a Boise, BYU, etc.

That is what is so frustrating about this year. We had a chance to show we belong in the Big XII and laid eggs. If we win @ Texas and competitive against Baylor…then we can have a real conversation vs. a kool-aid one as we are in great position with the other criteria required.

This. Its not a question of whether or not there will be more conference realignment, it is a question of when. Rice has a lot of things that could work in its favor. The one thing we absolutely, positively had to do was win, often and consistently. As owl40 said, it would have helped our resume immeasurably had we beaten UT (our best chance to beat them in quite some time), be competitive at Baylor, and win in conference. We didn't do that. Coupled with UH's incredible year, the timing couldn't have been worse.

This is the point. If we're on a cyclic trend, as some suggest, our timing is atrocious. We had 2009-2011 just before the last round. There will be another round in a year or two. We won't get much of a look coming off this season, and I have very little expectation that next year will be better unless some serious changes are made. There was no sense of urgency in 2009-2011, and that irritated me to no end. I hope somebody creates more of a sense of urgency this time around.

All things considered, I think the best expectation is that we miss this round but get ourselves in position for the next round, which I expect to see around 2020 or so. That's a reasonable objective. If we go 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, 9-3, or better from 2017-2020, and both men's and women's basketball start getting to their respective Dances, and Wayne gets baseball back to Omaha a time or two, then we have a resume that will attract some interest. But that's about where we have to be, at minimum, and that's a tall climb from where we are.

I don't expect Houston to the XII. There's just way too much bad blood in too many places and it's too well entrenched. Maybe if the legislature stepped in, but I don't see that happening. I don't see Tillman having enough influence to pull it off. He's got money, but not influence in the right places. I could see him leaning on Drayton to get Baylor to vote for them, but I don't see much more of a buzz than that. i could be wrong, but I don't see it.

(12-07-2015 04:56 PM)owl40 Wrote:  I know it is classic Parliament to focus on our weaknesses (vs. strengths) while focusing on others strengths (vs. weaknesses). A couple contrarian thoughts/kool-aid on this topic. Some have been discussed before, other not so much.

- I do remember RG telling me directly years ago that the Big XII Presidents (OU in particular) really dislike Houston and ‘commuter schools’ in general. There is a very negative reaction and bad blood there. Not that RG made anything happen but he does/did know a lot of people. Does not mean that Memphis or Houston won’t be considered but important to recognize they have unique challenges as well...albeit different ones than Rice. Grass is not necessarily greener. Leebron also knows the Big XII Presidents from various committees and has good relationships there.

- Big XII commish (Bowlsby) is JK’s old boss who clearly gets what Rice is about. Not a politics/personal connection problem.

- With the trends in FB/MBB scheduling (and perhaps rules) about scheduling more P5 vs. FCS and G5 games, putting Rice in a conference is not a bad thing from the Big XII perspective.

- No academic anchor tenant in Big XII. Big XII needs/wants their reputation improved. Rice clearly helps.

- ESPN is losing their shorts financially on LHN. The biz case failed for many reasons but ultimately ESPN misjudged the calculus on the cable networks that would sign on and those that did, the amount they would pay. They thought their brand could pull through and it did not. I do see the Worldwide Leader trying to eventually expand to a Big XII network to cast a wider net to capture more revenue while still guaranteeing Horns their $$. They are doing it for SEC and ACC and thus model is there to copy. Having Houston TV sets for that monthly sub fee to charge to cable subs is big $. That is exactly logic Big 10 used for Rutgers and Maryland who hardly ‘own’ the NY and DC markets. But it is rationale for the per sub fee for charging.

- Recruiting in H-Town is key for all Big XII. Nothing like visiting/playing in the market to help. I know some concern that they are losing recruiting/H-Town to the SEC (A&M and LSU).

- Facilities improving to be competitive. Need those to get a ticket nowadays and it is in progress at EZF, Soccer, Track, etc. and addressed with Tudor, Reckling, and Tennis.

- Lots of alums for all Big XII schools in H-Town. That matters more than a Memphis or Provo.

Bottom line is that this is clearly a Rice kool-aid version and winning/being competitive is key but I would not put winning as ‘the’ deciding factor. It is just ‘a’ factor. Many factors both quantitative and qualitative that go into the decision process. Unfortunate for them, but So. Miss, Marshall, WKU, La Tech, etc. can win 100 C-USA championships but they are not getting an invite unless they pull a miracle and figure-out how to get a national following like a Boise, BYU, etc.

That is what is so frustrating about this year. We had a chance to show we belong in the Big XII and laid eggs. If we win @ Texas and competitive against Baylor…then we can have a real conversation vs. a kool-aid one as we are in great position with the other criteria required.

Wow, Owl40. That's some tasty Kool-Aid you're serving up there. All good points. But it'll take some intense lobbying, wining, dining, constant emails and phone calls to even get us to the point of being noticed by the Big XII, much less the AAC. When it comes to P5, I think are darn near invisible.

(12-07-2015 02:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The way to get us playing teams that we care about again is to start caring about those teams that we don't care about.

A more quixotic statement has perhaps never been posted on this board. And I've advocated football independence along with drastically increased spending from the endowment, so I know quixotic.

Caring, i.e., supporting a football program, is an essentially discretionary activity, done with discretionary dollars and discretionary time. Any businessperson can vouch for the fact that it takes a hell of an effort to get any consumer to give you his/her discretionary dollar. You generally need to convince the consumer that he/she will receive significant and immediate utility in exchange for that discretionary investment. The main beneficiary needs to be the CONSUMER.

"Care about teams YOU don't care about because RICE needs you to" is oriented in exactly the wrong direction. It basically depends on the consumer being altruistic in order to succeed. Good luck with that.

People will be inspired to give significantly more discretionary dollars, butts in seats, eyeballs, etc., to Rice Football when and only when Rice Football strives for excellence in ways commensurate with the rest of Rice University. Sports are a proxy for wider competition amongst peers, and Rice purports to be a top national university. Since Southern Mississippi and Western Kentucky and the rest of CUSA cannot even plausibly claim to be top national universities, Rice people do not now nor will they ever "care" about competing with them in sports. That's the reality. Period, end of story. If we really are counting on that ever to meaningfully change, good luck. That is simply flying in the face of human psychology.

(12-07-2015 06:42 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  Since Southern Mississippi and Western Kentucky and the rest of CUSA cannot even plausibly claim to be top national universities, Rice people do not now nor will they ever "care" about competing with them in sports. That's the reality. Period, end of story. If we really are counting on that ever to meaningfully change, good luck. That is simply flying in the face of human psychology.

That may be the case. If it is, we are toast. Because we are going to have to build a following while playing those schools in order to have any shot at ever getting to play anybody a notch or two above them. That's reality too. And that's not going to change either.

To be clear, after rereading your post, I'm not saying that customers should be altruistic. I'm saying that Rice has to find a way to offer an attractive value proposition to customers while playing a collection of directional second and third tier state universities in order to have any shot at ever moving back into what some of us want to think of as our peer group. Like it or not, Southern Mississippi and Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee ARE our athletic peer group, and conference affiliations are about athletic peers, not academic peers. If we run off 12-2, 13-1, 12-2, 10-3, 8-5, 13-1, then we might get there, but that's the kind of run it is going to take. Houston is a front-runner town. If we can put up a run like that, particularly with some of the wins against Baylor or Texas or TT or LSU or TCU or aTm, to name a few, then we can make it happen. But no part of 2-10, 4-8, 4-8, 7-6, 10-4, 8-5, 5-7 is even remotely close to what it takes.

Where we may very well be is that we have screwed the pooch so long that the only viable option is D-3. It's incredibly unfortunate if that's the case. I spent the better part of 50 years absolutely convinced that there was no way that made sense. But 50 years of sustained brutal incompetence takes you to places that you never thought you'd end up.

(12-07-2015 06:37 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  . But it'll take some intense lobbying, wining, dining, ...

I don't know about the dining and lobbying, but we have the whining down pat.

Oh, just a minute...

Air Force turned downed a Big East (now AAC) a few years back invite because they said it would involve too much travel that would cut into the time that the cadets have.

(12-07-2015 04:13 PM)WTXOwl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 02:39 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Another possibility would be AAC attempting a raid on the MWC - Colorado State and Air Force. That might be the worst case scenario - no AAC spots opening up and a weakened MWC maybe deciding to add some Texas schools?

That would be a nightmare scenario, but I think unlikely. While AF would be fine headed east or west with recruiting and market presence, I think Colorado State has too much to lose without games in Cali and Nevada. (Plus they have easy travel games with Wyo, AF, UNM and Utah State.

(12-07-2015 01:47 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:36 PM)InterestedX Wrote:  Rice in the Big 12? Never gonna happen. Texas already brings the Houston market to the table at a much higher rate than Rice ever would. Heck, even Texas Tech probably has exponentially more Houston-area fans than Rice.

It doesn't matter how good Rice football is, there is no upside for the B12 to add a small private school with a limited fanbase.

Thats the problem with UH as well. The only upside Rice or UH add is a championship game for football.

Lets take a look at the last 4 weeks ratings in Houston.
Game - Rating in Houston
Auburn-Alabama 6.9
UH-Navy 6.1
Texas-Texas Tech 3.1
Whatever station Rice was on, it didn't register a rating

Week before that
OU-Baylor (CH13 primetime) 4.9
UH-Memphis (ESPN2) 3.9
Texas-WVU 1.9
Kansas State-Texas Tech 1.2
Kansas-TCU 0.8
Wake-Noter Dame 0.7
Rice-UTSA not rated

Week prior to that
LSU-Bama 8.2 (biggest of the year, not a Big12 game)
UH-Cincy (ESPN2) 2.9
TCU-OSU (on Big Fox) 2.8
Tech-WVU 1.7
Baylor-KSU 1.5

Previous week
OU-Texas Tech ESPN 3.8
UH-Vandy 2.2 ESPN2 on Halloween night
Texas Iowa State FS1 2.1
Rice La Tech FS1 0.7

Thats right, UH has beaten UT for 3 weeks straight, numbers aren't out for the UH-Temple vs UT-Baylor game. And UH is playing G5 teams, UT is playing Big12 teams.

The Big12 is losing ground to the SEC in Houston. Houston is media market 10. By 2020, Houston is supposed to past Chicago in population. Houston does not own the market by any means, but neither does the Texas or A&M or anyone else.

Getting Big12 games here 5 times a year would help them fight off the SEC. It also gives their teams better presence here for recruiting. There are more D1 kids in HISD than all of UTAH. All of Utah has 900,000 TV sets, Houston has 2.4 million. Cincy has 860,000 TV sets Memphis has 600,000.

Travel is an issue too, adding 2 schools 1000 miles away from the core, is a huge expense for the small sports.

As for UH being upset about UT wanting to open a campus in Houston, well I think we all know 1 thing that would change UH's mind.....

At the end of the day, TV execs and presidents will make the decision. Not message boards or ADs.

Tilman Fertitta can not really influence state politics since the Democrat party he gives to currently has no power in the legislature or governor's mansion. UH had a hard enough time in getting invited to the SWC in 1971. It took Peterson deciding that Rice could make good money playing them and Royal thinking it was time to let them in the conference. Neely refused to play UH because he did not want the competition. The first Rice-UH game drew 60,000 then but they would not get that much attendance.

I have the same dislike of our trajectory over the last 50 plus years that you do. A Rice game in the 1960s was a big event unlike it is now. The other teams in the SWC brought their own fans to Rice unlike the distant teams in CUSA.

(12-07-2015 06:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  This is the point. If we're on a cyclic trend, as some suggest, our timing is atrocious. We had 2009-2011 just before the last round. There will be another round in a year or two. We won't get much of a look coming off this season, and I have very little expectation that next year will be better unless some serious changes are made. There was no sense of urgency in 2009-2011, and that irritated me to no end. I hope somebody creates more of a sense of urgency this time around.

All things considered, I think the best expectation is that we miss this round but get ourselves in position for the next round, which I expect to see around 2020 or so. That's a reasonable objective. If we go 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, 9-3, or better from 2017-2020, and both men's and women's basketball start getting to their respective Dances, and Wayne gets baseball back to Omaha a time or two, then we have a resume that will attract some interest. But that's about where we have to be, at minimum, and that's a tall climb from where we are.

I don't expect Houston to the XII. There's just way too much bad blood in too many places and it's too well entrenched. Maybe if the legislature stepped in, but I don't see that happening. I don't see Tillman having enough influence to pull it off. He's got money, but not influence in the right places. I could see him leaning on Drayton to get Baylor to vote for them, but I don't see much more of a buzz than that. i could be wrong, but I don't see it.

Recently, HISD has mostly (except for Lamar) not been that good in football. The best football is in the suburbs which have more money to spend on it.

I would rather watch A&M in the SEC than Texas in the Big XII. I wonder if Texas will ultimately bolt to the PAC 12 after the LHN contract is over with.

(12-07-2015 07:14 PM)Dirty Sanchez Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:47 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(12-07-2015 01:36 PM)InterestedX Wrote:  Rice in the Big 12? Never gonna happen. Texas already brings the Houston market to the table at a much higher rate than Rice ever would. Heck, even Texas Tech probably has exponentially more Houston-area fans than Rice.

It doesn't matter how good Rice football is, there is no upside for the B12 to add a small private school with a limited fanbase.

Thats the problem with UH as well. The only upside Rice or UH add is a championship game for football.

Lets take a look at the last 4 weeks ratings in Houston.
Game - Rating in Houston
Auburn-Alabama 6.9
UH-Navy 6.1
Texas-Texas Tech 3.1
Whatever station Rice was on, it didn't register a rating

Week before that
OU-Baylor (CH13 primetime) 4.9
UH-Memphis (ESPN2) 3.9
Texas-WVU 1.9
Kansas State-Texas Tech 1.2
Kansas-TCU 0.8
Wake-Noter Dame 0.7
Rice-UTSA not rated

Week prior to that
LSU-Bama 8.2 (biggest of the year, not a Big12 game)
UH-Cincy (ESPN2) 2.9
TCU-OSU (on Big Fox) 2.8
Tech-WVU 1.7
Baylor-KSU 1.5

Previous week
OU-Texas Tech ESPN 3.8
UH-Vandy 2.2 ESPN2 on Halloween night
Texas Iowa State FS1 2.1
Rice La Tech FS1 0.7

Thats right, UH has beaten UT for 3 weeks straight, numbers aren't out for the UH-Temple vs UT-Baylor game. And UH is playing G5 teams, UT is playing Big12 teams.

The Big12 is losing ground to the SEC in Houston. Houston is media market 10. By 2020, Houston is supposed to past Chicago in population. Houston does not own the market by any means, but neither does the Texas or A&M or anyone else.

Getting Big12 games here 5 times a year would help them fight off the SEC. It also gives their teams better presence here for recruiting. There are more D1 kids in HISD than all of UTAH. All of Utah has 900,000 TV sets, Houston has 2.4 million. Cincy has 860,000 TV sets Memphis has 600,000.

Travel is an issue too, adding 2 schools 1000 miles away from the core, is a huge expense for the small sports.

As for UH being upset about UT wanting to open a campus in Houston, well I think we all know 1 thing that would change UH's mind.....

At the end of the day, TV execs and presidents will make the decision. Not message boards or ADs.

(12-07-2015 07:23 PM)75src Wrote:  ...after the LHN contract is over with.

When is that contract over or up for renegotiation/renewal?