(10-13-2015 07:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 06:26 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-12-2015 08:27 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2015 11:51 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 02:33 PM)XLance Wrote:  You might be looking at West Virginia AND Baylor to go along with Oklahoma.
Landing Notre Dame for ESPN/ACC is so important and valuable to ESPN that it is conceivable they would encourage a SEC east team to join the ACC just to make the ACC more palatable to the Irish.

Fixed it for you, JR.

That won't do it, Lance. Sorry.

IF the ACC could land Texas and Southern Cal then maybe...nah, not that either.

Terry, I have said many times, I don't want Notre Dame in my conference. The problem is that ESPN does. I sometimes think that the Mouse is stringing this whole process along just to be able to catch the Irish in a vulnerable situation so that they can exploit an opportunity (at the expense of all of the rest of the teams in the P5).

Good, just have them string it along for about twenty more years, Lance.

By then, the cable network model will fail and all will be well.

I think that the ACC/ESPN will wrangle 1-2 more games a year out of the Irish and that will be it unless the younger ND alumni get greedy and want to start trying to win conference football championships. But that might not be until after your 20 year window, but eventually it will happen.

I don't think so.

The ACC tried to get ND to add one more game by promising that the additional game would allow ND to play Pitt and BC every year.

ND said no.

(10-15-2015 07:03 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 07:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 06:26 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-12-2015 08:27 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-12-2015 11:51 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Fixed it for you, JR.

That won't do it, Lance. Sorry.

IF the ACC could land Texas and Southern Cal then maybe...nah, not that either.

Terry, I have said many times, I don't want Notre Dame in my conference. The problem is that ESPN does. I sometimes think that the Mouse is stringing this whole process along just to be able to catch the Irish in a vulnerable situation so that they can exploit an opportunity (at the expense of all of the rest of the teams in the P5).

Good, just have them string it along for about twenty more years, Lance.

By then, the cable network model will fail and all will be well.

I think that the ACC/ESPN will wrangle 1-2 more games a year out of the Irish and that will be it unless the younger ND alumni get greedy and want to start trying to win conference football championships. But that might not be until after your 20 year window, but eventually it will happen.

I don't think so.

The ACC tried to get ND to add one more game by promising that the additional game would allow ND to play Pitt and BC every year.

ND said no.

Terry, you missed the most important part.
Hey! don't shoot the messenger.

(10-15-2015 07:31 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-15-2015 07:03 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 07:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 06:26 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-12-2015 08:27 PM)XLance Wrote:  Terry, I have said many times, I don't want Notre Dame in my conference. The problem is that ESPN does. I sometimes think that the Mouse is stringing this whole process along just to be able to catch the Irish in a vulnerable situation so that they can exploit an opportunity (at the expense of all of the rest of the teams in the P5).

Good, just have them string it along for about twenty more years, Lance.

By then, the cable network model will fail and all will be well.

I think that the ACC/ESPN will wrangle 1-2 more games a year out of the Irish and that will be it unless the younger ND alumni get greedy and want to start trying to win conference football championships. But that might not be until after your 20 year window, but eventually it will happen.

I don't think so.

The ACC tried to get ND to add one more game by promising that the additional game would allow ND to play Pitt and BC every year.

ND said no.

Terry, you missed the most important part.
Hey! don't shoot the messenger.

No, I read it.

I don't think the ACC gets even one more game per year out of the Irish.

(10-15-2015 10:18 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-15-2015 07:31 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-15-2015 07:03 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 07:55 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-13-2015 06:26 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Good, just have them string it along for about twenty more years, Lance.

By then, the cable network model will fail and all will be well.

I think that the ACC/ESPN will wrangle 1-2 more games a year out of the Irish and that will be it unless the younger ND alumni get greedy and want to start trying to win conference football championships. But that might not be until after your 20 year window, but eventually it will happen.

I don't think so.

The ACC tried to get ND to add one more game by promising that the additional game would allow ND to play Pitt and BC every year.

ND said no.

Terry, you missed the most important part.
Hey! don't shoot the messenger.

No, I read it.

I don't think the ACC gets even one more game per year out of the Irish.

You're a dreamer Terry! Five years ago you would have been saying that the ACC wouldn't get a single scheduled game against the Irish, and now the ACC controls 5 of Notre Dame's football games. Those changes are slow but steady and as much as you like to protest, I know that you are aware of what's coming in the future.

ND to SEC within ten years IMO

(10-15-2015 08:25 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  ND to SEC within ten years IMO

More likely will be the chickens come "home" to roost.

ECU is a good fit, many people are just too antiquated, close-minded or perhaps just too plain ignorant to see it. Yes, I'm an ECU fan and yes I drink that purple kool-aid & yes go f*** yourself if you're not buying what I'm saying. I could come up with a lot of reasons why what I'm saying is accurate but the one's that don't need convincing don't need to hear it and why waste it on you mouth-breathing fundamentalists.

Enough negativity, here's a pep talk.

(10-16-2015 09:56 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  ECU is a good fit, many people are just too antiquated, close-minded or perhaps just too plain ignorant to see it. Yes, I'm an ECU fan and yes I drink that purple kool-aid & yes go f*** yourself if you're not buying what I'm saying. I could come up with a lot of reasons why what I'm saying is accurate but the one's that don't need convincing don't need to hear it and why waste it on you mouth-breathing fundamentalists.

Enough negativity, here's a pep talk.

Okay, so how can your Pirates help to make the SEC awesome? That is a selling point.

Now if you expect the SEC to make ECU awesome, then there is a long line of folks waiting for that gift and you can take a number.

I don't have a dog in the fight, but from a bird's eye level, Greenville seems to fit the SEC demographic. Good college football market, good local support and attendance, good recruiting state - but not in a big metropolitan area - like Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, Gainesville, Athens, College Station, Oxford, etc.

ECU would be instantly competitive with many SEC East teams and could create some nice rivalries with South Carolina and Kentucky. It would also get the SEC into a high population state that has good recruiting grounds and nice TV markets for the SEC network. It would also slap the ACC across the face.

(10-02-2015 06:36 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Bring on Oklahoma and Okie state.

If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

(10-20-2015 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-02-2015 06:36 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Bring on Oklahoma and Okie state.

If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

(10-20-2015 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-02-2015 06:36 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Bring on Oklahoma and Okie state.

If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

Agree that OU and okie at to the SEC is most likely. However, I am a believer in the GOR keeping the status quo for the next 10 years. I don't see anyone with an appetite to engage in that legal battle. Texas is ok with status quo, or so it seems. OU is not, but can't move until 7 others do. As long as Texas isn't one of them, it holds together.

(10-20-2015 09:18 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-02-2015 06:36 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Bring on Oklahoma and Okie state.

If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

Agree that OU and okie at to the SEC is most likely. However, I am a believer in the GOR keeping the status quo for the next 10 years. I don't see anyone with an appetite to engage in that legal battle. Texas is ok with status quo, or so it seems. OU is not, but can't move until 7 others do. As long as Texas isn't one of them, it holds together.

First things first.
IF we indeed are moving to a 4 x 16, then the first question is going to be the toughest. What about Notre Dame?
If there is to be 4 x 16, then Notre Dame HAS to join a conference and at least one of the 65 P5 schools is going to be out, or we will have to "work around" with 3 x 16 and 1 x 16+1.
After the Notre Dame question can be answered, then and only then can we start to make projections.

(10-21-2015 07:53 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 09:18 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-02-2015 06:36 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  Bring on Oklahoma and Okie state.

If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

Agree that OU and okie at to the SEC is most likely. However, I am a believer in the GOR keeping the status quo for the next 10 years. I don't see anyone with an appetite to engage in that legal battle. Texas is ok with status quo, or so it seems. OU is not, but can't move until 7 others do. As long as Texas isn't one of them, it holds together.

First things first.
IF we indeed are moving to a 4 x 16, then the first question is going to be the toughest. What about Notre Dame?
If there is to be 4 x 16, then Notre Dame HAS to join a conference and at least one of the 65 P5 schools is going to be out, or we will have to "work around" with 3 x 16 and 1 x 16+1.
After the Notre Dame question can be answered, then and only then can we start to make projections.

Well then, let's play multiple choice:

Should the ACC...
1. Issue the Irish an official ultimatum.
2. Make Wake and Connecticut an everything but football member and move to 16 full football members with Notre Dame and two others (Texas and another Texas school).
3. Tell Louisville that their academics were worthy while they were making strides, that is until they were caught making something else. Keep Wake full time and add Notre Dame, Texas, and another more academically sound Big 12 private.
4. Boot the Irish and add Texas and Rice or T.C.U.

(10-21-2015 08:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-21-2015 07:53 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 09:18 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If the ACC can't be breached, and it ESPN won't allow it, then this pair makes the most sense. It really scores big in DFW, lands a national brand, and two top 30 grossing athletic departments. It also stops Big 10 expansion at Kansas. The Horns aren't going B1G and what they do if we have Oklahoma is irrelevant, IMO.

It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

Agree that OU and okie at to the SEC is most likely. However, I am a believer in the GOR keeping the status quo for the next 10 years. I don't see anyone with an appetite to engage in that legal battle. Texas is ok with status quo, or so it seems. OU is not, but can't move until 7 others do. As long as Texas isn't one of them, it holds together.

First things first.
IF we indeed are moving to a 4 x 16, then the first question is going to be the toughest. What about Notre Dame?
If there is to be 4 x 16, then Notre Dame HAS to join a conference and at least one of the 65 P5 schools is going to be out, or we will have to "work around" with 3 x 16 and 1 x 16+1.
After the Notre Dame question can be answered, then and only then can we start to make projections.

Well then, let's play multiple choice:

Should the ACC...
1. Issue the Irish an official ultimatum.
2. Make Wake and Connecticut an everything but football member and move to 16 full football members with Notre Dame and two others (Texas and another Texas school).
3. Tell Louisville that their academics were worthy while they were making strides, that is until they were caught making something else. Keep Wake full time and add Notre Dame, Texas, and another more academically sound Big 12 private.
4. Boot the Irish and add Texas and Rice or T.C.U.

If Notre Dame is "in", then which school(s) that are already "in" is "out".
Wake Forest, TCU, and Kansas State could all be candidates for ouster.

I don't think anyone is getting kicked out of the P5. I don't think things will work out so neat and clean as to have a P4 with 16 teams each. I just don't see a reason it would work that way even though it's very symmetrical when looking down from above. Which brings me to a point, there's no central authority with the ability to make that happen.

ESPN is powerful, but not powerful enough to override every other player's interests. FOX has a say. Each league has a say. No one is on a leash to anyone else.

It has been messy thus far and I don't see a reason it won't be messy going forward.

(10-21-2015 09:07 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I don't think anyone is getting kicked out of the P5. I don't think things will work out so neat and clean as to have a P4 with 16 teams each. I just don't see a reason it would work that way even though it's very symmetrical when looking down from above. Which brings me to a point, there's no central authority with the ability to make that happen.

ESPN is powerful, but not powerful enough to override every other player's interests. FOX has a say. Each league has a say. No one is on a leash to anyone else.

It has been messy thus far and I don't see a reason it won't be messy going forward.

16 will be messy because there will be casualties. At 18 there are only lucky tickets in and nobody in the present 65 gets left out. Seven get included. That's a big difference especially when the greatest economic break is at the 71st position. While some think 18 impractical it actually doesn't affect scheduling and everyone still plays everyone else in a conference in 3 years. But that's okay, I'll just sit back and watch how they pull this together politically. I don't think it will be 16, at least in the end.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the top G5 performers from the last few years. This is attendance based so I didn't look up other potential relevant metrics.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_r...e/2014.pdf

These are average attendances over the season:

Air Force: 28,161
Army: 34,262
Boise State: 32,504
BYU: 57,141
Cincinnati: 28,840
Colorado State: 26,575...compared to CU: 37,778...very similar market share
Fresno State: 34,876
Houston: 28,311...compared to Rice: 18,562
Memphis: 33,851
Navy: 32,502
Nevada: 23,862...compared to UNLV: 15,674
New Mexico: 21,937...being a flagship in a growing state, I really think they should be higher on the radar
San Diego State: 32,406
SMU: 21,528
South Florida: 30,694
Temple: 23,370
Tulane: 25,012
Tulsa: 19,647
UCF: 37,812
UConn: 27,461

This is just from last year and I think it's a good snapshot on what programs have some momentum right now. BYU is obviously strong...they should be in a P5 before it's all over. The others all have glaring weaknesses and/or political hurdles. I don't know what will happen.

Here are 2013's numbers... http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_r...e/2013.pdf

Nothing terribly different there.

(10-21-2015 08:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-21-2015 08:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-21-2015 07:53 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 09:18 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(10-20-2015 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  It would be a good move for the SEC, BUT ESPN would be more concerned with securing Tejas than making your conference happy. If ESPN is willing to trade Kansas' rights for Oklahoma's, they would have already developed a plan to place Texas where it would make ESPN the most money.

Agree that OU and okie at to the SEC is most likely. However, I am a believer in the GOR keeping the status quo for the next 10 years. I don't see anyone with an appetite to engage in that legal battle. Texas is ok with status quo, or so it seems. OU is not, but can't move until 7 others do. As long as Texas isn't one of them, it holds together.

First things first.
IF we indeed are moving to a 4 x 16, then the first question is going to be the toughest. What about Notre Dame?
If there is to be 4 x 16, then Notre Dame HAS to join a conference and at least one of the 65 P5 schools is going to be out, or we will have to "work around" with 3 x 16 and 1 x 16+1.
After the Notre Dame question can be answered, then and only then can we start to make projections.

Well then, let's play multiple choice:

Should the ACC...
1. Issue the Irish an official ultimatum.
2. Make Wake and Connecticut an everything but football member and move to 16 full football members with Notre Dame and two others (Texas and another Texas school).
3. Tell Louisville that their academics were worthy while they were making strides, that is until they were caught making something else. Keep Wake full time and add Notre Dame, Texas, and another more academically sound Big 12 private.
4. Boot the Irish and add Texas and Rice or T.C.U.

If Notre Dame is "in", then which school(s) that are already "in" is "out".
Wake Forest, TCU, and Kansas State could all be candidates for ouster.

The one that is in is the one whose students can solve the subject verb tense issues of your first sentence. Seriously though if the Irish are in then you need only add one and shouldn't have to expel anyone. So who do the Irish want? Connecticut, West Virginia, Texas, Cincinnati, or someone else?

(10-21-2015 09:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-21-2015 09:07 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I don't think anyone is getting kicked out of the P5. I don't think things will work out so neat and clean as to have a P4 with 16 teams each. I just don't see a reason it would work that way even though it's very symmetrical when looking down from above. Which brings me to a point, there's no central authority with the ability to make that happen.

ESPN is powerful, but not powerful enough to override every other player's interests. FOX has a say. Each league has a say. No one is on a leash to anyone else.

It has been messy thus far and I don't see a reason it won't be messy going forward.

16 will be messy because there will be casualties. At 18 there are only lucky tickets in and nobody in the present 65 gets left out. Seven get included. That's a big difference especially when the greatest economic break is at the 71st position. While some think 18 impractical it actually doesn't affect scheduling and everyone still plays everyone else in a conference in 3 years. But that's okay, I'll just sit back and watch how they pull this together politically. I don't think it will be 16, at least in the end.

When I say messy I mean that I don't necessarily see each league ending up with the same number. Think about what we've got now:

ACC: 15
SEC and B1G: 14
Pac 12: 12
Big 12: 10

How many good options does the PAC have? Does the ACC really add to their bottom line without ND and Texas joining fully? It will be hard for the SEC to grow beyond 16 or 18 without breaking into the ACC. The B1G has their snobbery so there aren't very many options for them. Could the Big 12 back-fill after a raid and end up with more than 10?

All interesting questions.