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Given the instability of the Big 12, OU and UT's mutual animosity, the lack of viability for this conference if either UT or OU were to leave, and the fact that there are only football 4 playoff spots... could the teams that get invited be walking into another Big East/AAC situation?

I think that the other major conferences will very gently urge OU to leave the Big 12, because they are obligated to take OSU with them, and that would essentially be the end of the Big 12 as a P5 member. OU and the rest will then distribute themselves to the other conferences, and we'll be left with the P4, which dovetails perfectly with the four-team playoff format. The G5 and the dregs of the Big 12 will consequently be out of the picture once and for all.

That's a cynical view, but I really think that is the most probable outcome. UT will probably go to the Pac 12, because that flirtation has been going on for a few years now.

I really don't think UT is going anywhere. (Anytime soon anyway)
I could see OU heading along with KU to the B1G, though. As long as they help line up Big 12 replacements before they leave, to keep the conference viable, OSU will be just fine.

Texas likes to be in charge. They like being the biggest kid on the block. I think the BIG12 will expand back to 12, and I think they'll reconsider BYU. If not, I think the author is correct and they'll take Cincy and Memphis. The AAC would really take a hit.

(06-30-2015 07:54 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  That's a cynical view, but I really think that is the most probable outcome. UT will probably go to the Pac 12, because that flirtation has been going on for a few years now.

I seem to recall conversation that the Longhorn Network deal will be a deterrent if UT tries to move itself from B12 to whatever ?

The LHN has been a ratings disaster, and if the Big 12 starts to disintegrate, I'm sure that UT would be willing to part with the network in exchange for Pac 12 membership.

The two high-value conferences are the Pac 12 and the $EC. I think UT would relish making the move west, because that would mean that Texas would become the intersection point for that simmering conference rivalry.

(07-01-2015 06:37 AM)Wiessman Wrote:  The two high-value conferences are the Pac 12 and the $EC.

Despite population (and football performance) trends, the Big 10 remains in this mix as well - at least in the short to intermediate term. The success of BTN has far exceeded that of the Pac 12 Network to date, although I would imagine that the Pac 12 Network will have its carriage issues worked out in the next couple of years (rumors yesterday that the AT&T-DirectTV merger is likely to be approved - which may break the logjam).

As to LHN ... UT is still getting their cash from Disney/ESPN through the existing deal regardless of ratings. I would have to think that this money has been baked into existing budgets in Austin. Would imagine that it is still an issue for an extended period of time.

The Big 12 Grant of Rights has another 10 years on it. Unless 5 teams are leaving it will remain in effect. Therefore, unless the GOR can be broken it means that any team leaving would lose ALL TV revenue. I realize that Texas could probably afford that but would public opinion allow them to? Maybe it is my Baylor bias showing, but I just don't see the breakup happening. Baylor and TCU came within an eyelash of both getting in the Final Four. If a Big 12 team wins a NC, I think all of this talk goes away. Personally, I think the talk is being pushed by the SEC to hurt Big 12 recruiting. Just my 2cents.

So if UT and/or OU bolt(s) for the Pac-12 or B1G, respectively, what happens to the other current B12 schools, i.e., TCU, Baylor, TT, OSU, Kansas, KSU, Iowa State, WVU? Seems like it could be an interesting game of musical chairs for the leftovers trying to land in a P4. Who is likely to get left out, if anyone? Where do they end up?

To me, this discussion is much more interesting than UT to the Pac-12 or OU to the B1G.

Tomball, with the possible exception of Kansas (because of basketball) I think we are all screwed unless there is tremendous political pressure to take OSU and Tech.

Quote:Boren said the problem of reduced revenue per school with expansion wasn’t as big of a hurdle as it had been made out to be.

“The contract says that our main television contract … if we grow from 10 to 11 or 11 to 12, their payments to us grow proportionally,” Boren said. “So everybody’s share stays the same. If it’s ‘X’ dollars, it stays ‘X’ dollars.

“Our main media contract says it’s not the same pie now cut 12 ways instead of 10.”

I thought this part from Boren was interesting.

(07-01-2015 12:23 PM)At Ease Wrote:  

Quote:Boren said the problem of reduced revenue per school with expansion wasn’t as big of a hurdle as it had been made out to be.

“The contract says that our main television contract … if we grow from 10 to 11 or 11 to 12, their payments to us grow proportionally,” Boren said. “So everybody’s share stays the same. If it’s ‘X’ dollars, it stays ‘X’ dollars.

“Our main media contract says it’s not the same pie now cut 12 ways instead of 10.”

I thought this part from Boren was interesting.

makes it attractive to take the best 'fit' with potential, regardless of how much they currently bring.

That's part of why I've often argued that (using them as an obvious option) we are potentially more attractive than UH. Rather than attracting the same sort of fan that UT attracts (based almost solely on the quality of the team) we actually attract a different market segment... the non-traditional viewer. We might actually be a HUGE benefit to something like the LHN who has to attract viewers to non-rev sports that are often more/better watched by 'our' sort of fans.

It's not a question of our segment of fans being bigger... but of our segment having little overlap with UT's. I suspect that UT believes they can capture a lot of the same fans that would watch top 25 ranked UH already.

Not going into detail, but suffice it to say that I REALLY don't want Rice in the Big XII. Ideologically and philosophically, it is the worst possible fit for us.

MWC for me, even if the Big XII were to become an option. End of story. I know that this puts me in the minority.

(07-01-2015 01:11 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(07-01-2015 12:23 PM)At Ease Wrote:  

Quote:Boren said the problem of reduced revenue per school with expansion wasn’t as big of a hurdle as it had been made out to be.

“The contract says that our main television contract … if we grow from 10 to 11 or 11 to 12, their payments to us grow proportionally,” Boren said. “So everybody’s share stays the same. If it’s ‘X’ dollars, it stays ‘X’ dollars.

“Our main media contract says it’s not the same pie now cut 12 ways instead of 10.”

I thought this part from Boren was interesting.

makes it attractive to take the best 'fit' with potential, regardless of how much they currently bring.

That's part of why I've often argued that (using them as an obvious option) we are potentially more attractive than UH. Rather than attracting the same sort of fan that UT attracts (based almost solely on the quality of the team) we actually attract a different market segment... the non-traditional viewer. We might actually be a HUGE benefit to something like the LHN who has to attract viewers to non-rev sports that are often more/better watched by 'our' sort of fans.

It's not a question of our segment of fans being bigger... but of our segment having little overlap with UT's. I suspect that UT believes they can capture a lot of the same fans that would watch top 25 ranked UH already.

This is a bit of a stretch in my opinion, and I don't think they're interested in UH either.

(07-01-2015 01:46 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  Not going into detail, but suffice it to say that I REALLY don't want Rice in the Big XII. Ideologically and philosophically, it is the worst possible fit for us.

MWC for me, even if the Big XII were to become an option. End of story. I know that this puts me in the minority.

Can you elaborate a bit on how it is the worst possible fit?

We would have a number of regional rivals, be involved with some schools with good academics, and gain more national exposure.

1. The Big XII is the worst P5 conference academically IMO, so that's not exactly a huge upgrade. And as far as I am concerned, it is a push with the MWC academically. I would attend San Diego State over any school in the Big XII save for UT. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

2. Baylor and TCU are in the Big XII, and they might invite BYU. I really want no part of that.

3. After what went on at OU recently, I'm not enthusiastic about possibly ending up in a conference with them. (FWIW, Boren did handle that situation as well as he could have. Credit where credit is due.)

(07-01-2015 02:00 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  1. The Big XII is the worst P5 conference academically IMO, so that's not exactly a huge upgrade. And as far as I am concerned, it is a push with the MWC academically. I would attend San Diego State over any school in the Big XII save for UT. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

2. Baylor and TCU are in the Big XII, and they might invite BYU. I really want no part of that.

3. After what went on at OU recently, I'm not enthusiastic about possibly ending up in a conference with them.

Number 1 is hilariously false (the part about it being a push with the MWC).

(07-01-2015 02:00 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  1. The Big XII is the worst P5 conference academically IMO, so that's not exactly a huge upgrade. And as far as I am concerned, it is a push with the MWC academically. I would attend San Diego State over any school in the Big XII save for UT. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

2. Baylor and TCU are in the Big XII, and they might invite BYU. I really want no part of that.

3. After what went on at OU recently, I'm not enthusiastic about possibly ending up in a conference with them. (FWIW, Boren did handle that situation as well as he could have. Credit where credit is due.)

Its a huge step up over C-USA and DirectionalU/F_U.

And then theres the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

What $$$? If the above is true Rice wouldn't get an equal share. Rice would get a share commensurate with its contribution, as adjudicated by UT.