(12-29-2014 05:37 PM)YNot Wrote: What about the Big Ten going after Texas Tech? (If they can't land Texas?) Texas Tech is looking like it could reach AAU status as soon as 2017.
Kansas and Texas Tech in the Big Ten West could be an interesting scenario.
But, you have to think that the PAC 12 will make another attempt expansion into Texas. What about Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa St. to the PAC 16?
TTU to the B1G is an extremely long shot. TTU won't have the academic cache to get either AAU or B1G membership anytime soon. It's only hope is that the B1G throws out the AAU standard for membership and that Texas requires TTU be invited if the B1G wants the Longhorns. This is unlikely to happen. Remember the Tech problem email to the B1G from Texas a few years ago, that former tOSU president Gee mentioned? More on the AAU issue later because it gets brought up often in realignment threads.
You are right the PAC covets the state of Texas. They want all those households for it's network. IMO, TTU to the PAC is almost certain to happen sometime in the future, with or without Texas, if the B12 dies. They have been smart to establish relationships with the CA academic heavyweights to help clear that academic hurdle when the time comes. They have previous conference relationships with the mountain schools in the PAC which helps as well. If the B12 doesn't die, then G5 TX schools like Houston, Rice, or SMU might benefit because the PAC wants into Texas badly.
On the AAU issue, nobody can count on AAU status.
The AAU is an exclusive club. From the link, AAU membership is by invitation only, which requires an affirmative vote of three-fourths of current members. Invitations are considered periodically, based in part on an assessment of the breadth and quality of university programs of research and graduate education, as well as undergraduate education. The association ranks its members using four criteria: research spending, the percentage of faculty who are members of the National Academies, faculty awards, and citations. Two thirds of members can vote to revoke membership for poor rankings.
Since the AAU is a club, they never have to admit another school as long as they exist. If anything they have been trying to reduce membership or hold it steady lately. There are only four former members, but all have left or gotten booted since 1999. During that time they have added only four new members GT (2010), Boston U (2012), A&M (2001), and Stony Brook (2001). The AAU wants to be an exclusive club. To remain exclusive you have to keep membership levels low. Even if you meet all the vague standards for membership, 75% of the club has to like you enough to vote for you and be associated with your university. That is hard to do with founding members (1900) like Yale, Stanford, Harvard, Michigan, Cal, John Hopkins, etc. They are associating your university with theirs. If they think you will hurt them with that association you will not get their vote.
The University of Kansas is one of the oldest members of the AAU (1908) and we had worries about our research levels until a couple years ago, when we earned a National Cancer Institute (NCI) designation for our medical school in 2012. KU has continued working hard to bring in more research dollars as the AAU has let it be known to membership that they needed to continue to maintain high research levels to keep membership. In 2011, Syracuse (1966) left and Nebraska (1909) was booted for lack of qualifying research. This is good news in some ways for schools seeking AAU membership as it means old members who are not measuring up might be kicked out; however, it doesn't mean there will be many new slots (if any) and those that are available will be hotly contested.
TTU is at least a decade, probably several decades, from reaching the stage to even be considered for AAU membership. Many schools are working hard to try to reach the level to be considered for AAU membership, but most will never get invited. I know the State of Texas wants another public T1 university to join UT and A&M, so if they give the money then TTU will get there sooner or later, but it can be a long process, and even if they get T1 status, it is no guarantee they would get an AAU invite. GT just joined in 2010 and it is an academic powerhouse. That is how difficult it is to get an invite.