(12-17-2014 03:00 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:C-USA's media deal pays better than the MAC's, and their fans wouldn't have to log on and watch half of their games on ESPN3.

CUSA's is going to be worse when their contract runs out, I'm sure. CUSA isn't as good as before the Big East/AAC raided them.

CUSA isn't a good enough poacher for the top-MAC. Sun Belt? OK. Sun Belt teams typically want to spend more money on their football programs anyway, too.

But as it is, it wouldn't benefit NIU to join CUSA the way it stands and the way CUSA is going (being a re-vamped Sun Belt). Travel costs would nix some extra money... and in the end, it'd come right back around to "Wait, WHY did we leave here?"

I could only see NIU joining if for some they saw a chain-of-events to occur to join CUSA for a few years as a definite pick-up by AAC thereafter. But if joining CUSA isn't really going to up their odds for the AAC to pick them up much-if-at-all -- why join? It's no leap forward by any stretch when all the dust settles.

As far as TV is concerned -- CUSA will be on the level of the MAC -- ESPN3. I think the MAC's big contract with ESPN(3) which p!ssed off a lot of MAC fans because they won't disclose info about it, etc. is because unlike other G5s, the MAC is.... well, the MAC. It's stable. It will ride out anything. What I mean by this is...

... they probably got a contract that for the time being SUCKS. However, ESPN3 and other Inet broadcast setups are not going to be an "extra side piece" in 5 years. It will be the NORM with how cable's changing. ESPN3 is already built into Smart TVs. Cable companies are going to change in the coming years to mesh that stuff in their more "sophistomocated" cable-box, where there'll be no difference than watching a game on B10 channel 1 vs B10 channel 2, etc. Much more ads running on those will be filling in -- so in 3-5 years, it will be Great.

So point being, the MAC isn't going to be in any worse position than CUSA for TV-time in some years to come anyway -- possibly reaping extra cash with their deal (that's bad now, good later), who knows. So combine that with more travel expenses, etc? Why jump ship when you're at the top of the MAC?

The AAC is arguably (ARGUABLY) better than the MW. Why would a top MW team jump to join the AAC and add on tons o travel, even if AAC would give out a few extra bucks? Not worth it to shift gears when you're a top MW team.

I've argued with CUSA fans for some time about the likelihood that they'll be able to continue to enjoy anything close to similar TV revenue with CUSA 3.0. You can't replace over 50% of your membership with Sun Belt and FCS schools (plus La Tech) and pragmatically expect TV to not be severely affected.

On the other hand.

I come to this discussion without being a "media" person per se, but also arguably having some "media" insight based on professional relationships (both family and friends) that others might not.

Indisputable and unfortunate fact of the matter is that MAC is in a much more precarious/disadvantaged TV situation because of their uniquely compact footprint.

Accordingly, CUSA is likely to continue to excel beyond what MAC does or could simply based on the implicit limitations of advertising markets. While like anyone else, they will attract some national and local advertising interest, they can't deliver the same breadth of regional advertising interest.

But back to where this discussion began... I doubt that difference would be sufficient to attract NIU... I was just "fishing" to see if NIU fans perceive something I wouldn't, not being on the inside. And too, someone at some point had indicated that there was some dissatisfaction between NIU and the conference, and I wanted to know if that was something real or just someone's anecdotal and mostly-baseless opinion.

Thanks to those contributing to "learn me" something.

I wonder if NIU would be interested if C-USA went to sixteen.

The other two could be top SBC or MAC or a combination.

CUSA? No.

AAC? Yes.

I just see the whole AAC conversation as theoretical, at best, more appropriately, hyperbole. Until the championship game dereg petition issue runs its course, the fan chatter is predictable but premature.

So, I guess I'm saying, assuming as I do that the petition will get approved and Big XII loses all interest in expansion, is NIU at all open to the possibility of CUSA.

I think a good point is made on the NIU BBS board... for NIU to even be barely interested in CUSA, there would have to be a northern expansion beyond just NIU to 16 teams (if not more). Of course, you could make that happen if Army and/or UMass and/or [insert name of other MAC school here] were open to the thought.

The geography difference is significant, but I also figure NIU fans are so used to being in such a small footprint conference by now that it feels at least a little more daunting in theory than it necessarily is in practice.

(12-16-2014 06:22 PM)_sturt_ Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 06:03 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I'm sure geography has nothing to do with anything in reality.

CUSA is just not a step up from the MAC unless your considering minor sports like baseball and soccer.

They would not really increase the amount of money they make my moving to CUSA nor would they increase their SOS.

Well, actually... there is a difference between TV contracts, but then, there's a very real question of whether CUSA will be able to command anything close in the next go-round. Still... no disrespect, but MAC's TV last I looked competes with Sun Belt for the bottom of that barrel.

I think, too, there might be a palpable difference in philosophy and aspirations, too. MAC schools overall have seemed quite content over the decades to occupy the same perception as always. No real ambition to become something more tomorrow than they are today. I don't know if anyone else views it that way, but I know many Marshall fans did when they were part of that conference. NIU seems to have some ambition, and in CUSA, that's the culture as well.

How many CUSA games were on ESPN this year?

I mean no disrespect. I'm only talking about revenue, and based on what has been reported, MAC and Sun Belt are, indeed, significantly less than CUSA's current contract which is primarily with Fox Sports. That, of course, and as acknowledged, will almost certainly change with the contract that begins in 2016.

(12-16-2014 10:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 04:52 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would guess not. Years ago before CUSA got raided and it was a clear step up it would have been a tougher choice (but NIU wasn't good then). There's less difference now between MAC and CUSA and the geography would be a killer. NIU doesn't have the budget like a West Virginia to travel all its teams to a large part of the U.S. I don't have any insider knowledge though about the NIU administration, either about that or whether NIU is unhappy with the MAC.

As a fan I don't like how our late season games, particularly against our main competition, are on weeknights, but we do get a lot of exposure to recruits from being on TV with not much else on. Right now that's the choice the MAC has made.

C-USA's media deal pays better than the MAC's, and their fans wouldn't have to log on and watch half of their games on ESPN3. I found my North Texas team on Directv every week last season, and we were having a terrible season. I like the coverage of Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports, the Fox regional stations, and the American Sports Network. Plus, C-USA seems to have slightly better bowl options. Of course, if NIU joined, they would be placed in C-USA West, with Rice, LA Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Southern Miss, and UTEP. Not exactly a lineup of regional schools for NIU, but it is a lineup that includes a few programs with a good history of winning.

I make 30k and live in Georgia! I make 34k and live in California! Pretty much sums up that statement.

And since your talking about TV contracts how about you post the viewership of UNT vs NIU last season? Being on ESPN 3 > being on some obscure regional channel in today's world. It will not be long before ESPN 3 becomes a smart TV app and you can simply click the icon and watch the games.

(12-17-2014 11:22 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I make 30k and live in Georgia! I make 34k and live in California! Pretty much sums up that statement.

And since your talking about TV contracts how about you post the viewership of UNT vs NIU last season? Being on ESPN 3 > being on some obscure regional channel in today's world. It will not be long before ESPN 3 becomes a smart TV app and you can simply click the icon and watch the games.

This is already the case if you have AppleTV or a Roku. It's very convenient.

CUSA: NO (It's the MAC but further away)

AAC: YES (Further away as well but the $ and competition is better)

In the end, I think I speak for all NIU fans when I say we trust the decisions our AD and President will make if/when we decide to change conferences.

(12-16-2014 10:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 04:52 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would guess not. Years ago before CUSA got raided and it was a clear step up it would have been a tougher choice (but NIU wasn't good then). There's less difference now between MAC and CUSA and the geography would be a killer. NIU doesn't have the budget like a West Virginia to travel all its teams to a large part of the U.S. I don't have any insider knowledge though about the NIU administration, either about that or whether NIU is unhappy with the MAC.

As a fan I don't like how our late season games, particularly against our main competition, are on weeknights, but we do get a lot of exposure to recruits from being on TV with not much else on. Right now that's the choice the MAC has made.

C-USA's media deal pays better than the MAC's, and their fans wouldn't have to log on and watch half of their games on ESPN3. I found my North Texas team on Directv every week last season, and we were having a terrible season. I like the coverage of Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports, the Fox regional stations, and the American Sports Network. Plus, C-USA seems to have slightly better bowl options. Of course, if NIU joined, they would be placed in C-USA West, with Rice, LA Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Southern Miss, and UTEP. Not exactly a lineup of regional schools for NIU, but it is a lineup that includes a few programs with a good history of winning.

You over-estimate the value of the media deals.
CUSA (current) $14 million presumably split 14 ways
MAC $10 million split 12 ways.

You don't forego a year of revenue in the MAC and pay a $2 million entry fee to increase revenue $187,000 while at the same time dramatically raising overhead (travel) and eliminating regional games that have some brand value in your market. Further NIU in salaries for head coaches and assistants are around Sun Belt median and would be bottom CUSA. Fan base is going to demand a big investment there to get in line with the league if they were to join CUSA.

At current contract levels, it would take four years for a Sun Belt school to recover the cost of moving from Sun Belt to CUSA, I'm not sure a MAC can cost-recover a move within a reasonable time frame if ever.

Not sure where arkstfan is getting his/her numbers...

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/...ollow.html



These numbers are a bit dated, but where CUSA is concerned, 2010's number should be actually less than the 2011 number since the new contract kicked-in then.

Yes, there were defectors, but as part of their agreement when they left, the "leftovers" will continue to receive what the same amount as-if the others never left... ie, there is a subsidy that the defectors must pay to make up for any loss in the next contract.

(12-17-2014 02:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 10:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 04:52 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would guess not. Years ago before CUSA got raided and it was a clear step up it would have been a tougher choice (but NIU wasn't good then). There's less difference now between MAC and CUSA and the geography would be a killer. NIU doesn't have the budget like a West Virginia to travel all its teams to a large part of the U.S. I don't have any insider knowledge though about the NIU administration, either about that or whether NIU is unhappy with the MAC.

As a fan I don't like how our late season games, particularly against our main competition, are on weeknights, but we do get a lot of exposure to recruits from being on TV with not much else on. Right now that's the choice the MAC has made.

C-USA's media deal pays better than the MAC's, and their fans wouldn't have to log on and watch half of their games on ESPN3. I found my North Texas team on Directv every week last season, and we were having a terrible season. I like the coverage of Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports, the Fox regional stations, and the American Sports Network. Plus, C-USA seems to have slightly better bowl options. Of course, if NIU joined, they would be placed in C-USA West, with Rice, LA Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Southern Miss, and UTEP. Not exactly a lineup of regional schools for NIU, but it is a lineup that includes a few programs with a good history of winning.

You over-estimate the value of the media deals.
CUSA (current) $14 million presumably split 14 ways
MAC $10 million split 12 ways.

You don't forego a year of revenue in the MAC and pay a $2 million entry fee to increase revenue $187,000 while at the same time dramatically raising overhead (travel) and eliminating regional games that have some brand value in your market. Further NIU in salaries for head coaches and assistants are around Sun Belt median and would be bottom CUSA. Fan base is going to demand a big investment there to get in line with the league if they were to join CUSA.

At current contract levels, it would take four years for a Sun Belt school to recover the cost of moving from Sun Belt to CUSA, I'm not sure a MAC can cost-recover a move within a reasonable time frame if ever.

First of all, I'm pretty sure that we can rule out a MAC school moving to C-USA. But for a SBC school, I don't think it would take 4 years to recoup the cost of moving. Most of the time a school will pay it's $2 million entry fee by taking $500k less in conference payouts each year for the first 4 years. A SBC school would still be earning more per year in C-USA even with that. Unless the fee to leave the SBC is high.

(12-17-2014 02:42 PM)_sturt_ Wrote:  Not sure where arkstfan is getting his/her numbers...

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/...ollow.html



These numbers are a bit dated, but where CUSA is concerned, 2010's number should be actually less than the 2011 number since the new contract kicked-in then.

Yes, there were defectors, but as part of their agreement when they left, the "leftovers" will continue to receive what the same amount as-if the others never left... ie, there is a subsidy that the defectors must pay to make up for any loss in the next contract.

Those aren't media contract numbers which was what I was responding to but MAC revenue jumps $9 million with the new contract.

Additionally the same accounting practices are not used in all conferences.

Conference USA passes through revenue then assesses dues sufficent to cover conference operating expenses, that over-states distribution because the school then pays dues out of the distribution. Sun Belt deducts operating expenses from the league revenue and distributes what is left. Further CUSA pads its distribution by counting NCAA distributions from the sports sponsorship and grant-in-aid funds as "league" revenue because the NCAA pays one fat check to the conference with a statement showing what the money is, CUSA deems it conference revenue even though the money is the school's regardless of whether they are a member or not (and if they went indy they'd get an individual check). Sun Belt doesn't count that as league money and passes it directly because no league activity is responsible for earning the money, the money is paid based on how many sports you play and how many scholies you award.

(12-17-2014 03:13 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 02:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 10:40 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 04:52 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would guess not. Years ago before CUSA got raided and it was a clear step up it would have been a tougher choice (but NIU wasn't good then). There's less difference now between MAC and CUSA and the geography would be a killer. NIU doesn't have the budget like a West Virginia to travel all its teams to a large part of the U.S. I don't have any insider knowledge though about the NIU administration, either about that or whether NIU is unhappy with the MAC.

As a fan I don't like how our late season games, particularly against our main competition, are on weeknights, but we do get a lot of exposure to recruits from being on TV with not much else on. Right now that's the choice the MAC has made.

C-USA's media deal pays better than the MAC's, and their fans wouldn't have to log on and watch half of their games on ESPN3. I found my North Texas team on Directv every week last season, and we were having a terrible season. I like the coverage of Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports, the Fox regional stations, and the American Sports Network. Plus, C-USA seems to have slightly better bowl options. Of course, if NIU joined, they would be placed in C-USA West, with Rice, LA Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Southern Miss, and UTEP. Not exactly a lineup of regional schools for NIU, but it is a lineup that includes a few programs with a good history of winning.

You over-estimate the value of the media deals.
CUSA (current) $14 million presumably split 14 ways
MAC $10 million split 12 ways.

You don't forego a year of revenue in the MAC and pay a $2 million entry fee to increase revenue $187,000 while at the same time dramatically raising overhead (travel) and eliminating regional games that have some brand value in your market. Further NIU in salaries for head coaches and assistants are around Sun Belt median and would be bottom CUSA. Fan base is going to demand a big investment there to get in line with the league if they were to join CUSA.

At current contract levels, it would take four years for a Sun Belt school to recover the cost of moving from Sun Belt to CUSA, I'm not sure a MAC can cost-recover a move within a reasonable time frame if ever.

First of all, I'm pretty sure that we can rule out a MAC school moving to C-USA. But for a SBC school, I don't think it would take 4 years to recoup the cost of moving. Most of the time a school will pay it's $2 million entry fee by taking $500k less in conference payouts each year for the first 4 years. A SBC school would still be earning more per year in C-USA even with that. Unless the fee to leave the SBC is high.

Cost of moving SBC to CUSA.
Forego one year of league revenue. Cost slightly over $1 million (because CFP has kicked in). Pay $2 million entry fee. Spend ancillary money to redo signage. Pops all around to about $3.5 million. Revenue differential is less than a million. Four fiscal years to recover the cost even if you are spreading that cost over five years (one year without revenue in SBC, four year reduced distribution)

(12-17-2014 05:11 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 02:42 PM)_sturt_ Wrote:  Not sure where arkstfan is getting his/her numbers...

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/...ollow.html



These numbers are a bit dated, but where CUSA is concerned, 2010's number should be actually less than the 2011 number since the new contract kicked-in then.

Yes, there were defectors, but as part of their agreement when they left, the "leftovers" will continue to receive what the same amount as-if the others never left... ie, there is a subsidy that the defectors must pay to make up for any loss in the next contract.

Those aren't media contract numbers which was what I was responding to but MAC revenue jumps $9 million with the new contract.

Additionally the same accounting practices are not used in all conferences.

Conference USA passes through revenue then assesses dues sufficent to cover conference operating expenses, that over-states distribution because the school then pays dues out of the distribution. Sun Belt deducts operating expenses from the league revenue and distributes what is left. Further CUSA pads its distribution by counting NCAA distributions from the sports sponsorship and grant-in-aid funds as "league" revenue because the NCAA pays one fat check to the conference with a statement showing what the money is, CUSA deems it conference revenue even though the money is the school's regardless of whether they are a member or not (and if they went indy they'd get an individual check). Sun Belt doesn't count that as league money and passes it directly because no league activity is responsible for earning the money, the money is paid based on how many sports you play and how many scholies you award.

1) True on the media thing, but one would presume that the major difference in revenue between conferences is TV-related... no?

2) Impressed by the degree of investigation completed, but given that the AL.com source of information is the same tax document(s) that everyone evidently files, why wouldn't the government expect every conference to calculate the same way for any given cell on the form(s)? All I know is that every form I complete personally has very explicit instructions for what belongs in each cell.

(12-17-2014 05:24 PM)_sturt_ Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 05:11 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 02:42 PM)_sturt_ Wrote:  Not sure where arkstfan is getting his/her numbers...

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/...ollow.html



These numbers are a bit dated, but where CUSA is concerned, 2010's number should be actually less than the 2011 number since the new contract kicked-in then.

Yes, there were defectors, but as part of their agreement when they left, the "leftovers" will continue to receive what the same amount as-if the others never left... ie, there is a subsidy that the defectors must pay to make up for any loss in the next contract.

Those aren't media contract numbers which was what I was responding to but MAC revenue jumps $9 million with the new contract.

Additionally the same accounting practices are not used in all conferences.

Conference USA passes through revenue then assesses dues sufficent to cover conference operating expenses, that over-states distribution because the school then pays dues out of the distribution. Sun Belt deducts operating expenses from the league revenue and distributes what is left. Further CUSA pads its distribution by counting NCAA distributions from the sports sponsorship and grant-in-aid funds as "league" revenue because the NCAA pays one fat check to the conference with a statement showing what the money is, CUSA deems it conference revenue even though the money is the school's regardless of whether they are a member or not (and if they went indy they'd get an individual check). Sun Belt doesn't count that as league money and passes it directly because no league activity is responsible for earning the money, the money is paid based on how many sports you play and how many scholies you award.

1) True on the media thing, but one would presume that the major difference in revenue between conferences is TV-related... no?

2) Impressed by the degree of investigation completed, but given that the AL.com source of information is the same tax document(s) that everyone evidently files, why wouldn't the government expect every conference to calculate the same way for any given cell on the form(s)? All I know is that every form I complete personally has very explicit instructions for what belongs in each cell.

Because the government isn't collecting money from them, they are informational returns.

(12-16-2014 04:55 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  So would NIU accept an invite to the very spread out AAC, if offered?

If there was a need for the AAC to add 1-2 team (assuming UC and Memphis were to get an invite to the B12) then I think our AD/President/BOT would accept an invite to the AAC. I know that our last President/AD combo would have not been interested.

If Cincinnati plus one other school did leave the AAC the I would also not be surprised if our AD would pitch Toledo to be invited with us. It would help with some continuity for us and they are strong in football and basketball within the MAC.

I pitched this idea on the AAC board with the UC/Memphis rumor thread and most AAC fans seemed not a fan of it.

So... no instructions, arkstfan?

(12-17-2014 09:29 AM)MJG Wrote:  I wonder if NIU would be interested if C-USA went to sixteen.

The other two could be top SBC or MAC or a combination.

there is nothing attractive about a conference with 16 members.

(12-17-2014 06:11 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 04:55 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  So would NIU accept an invite to the very spread out AAC, if offered?

If there was a need for the AAC to add 1-2 team (assuming UC and Memphis were to get an invite to the B12) then I think our AD/President/BOT would accept an invite to the AAC. I know that our last President/AD combo would have not been interested.

If Cincinnati plus one other school did leave the AAC the I would also not be surprised if our AD would pitch Toledo to be invited with us. It would help with some continuity for us and they are strong in football and basketball within the MAC.

I pitched this idea on the AAC board with the UC/Memphis rumor thread and most AAC fans seemed not a fan of it.

A lot of AAC fans want to keep going after Southern schools. I think NIU is probably the only candidate in the MAC that would be strongly considered.