They just went through one season with 13 teams and they can do it again if necessary. No reason to make any immediate and rash decisions at this point.

(12-10-2014 02:23 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(12-10-2014 12:21 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(12-10-2014 12:05 PM)USMSTUD Wrote:  I don't see the Big XII adding two teams just to get to 12 so they can have a championship game. Each team is currently getting roughly $25 million from their media deals so any new teams being added would need to generate that much additional for it to work. The current members aren't going to give up money in order to add two teams.

With substantial money for a champ game along with new markets, both of which are needed by the Big 12, they might actual make a move this spring. If so, it could affect either the MWC or AAC or both. That would then affect C-USA. UAB re-instating FB would be great but if that does not happen and we lose 1 or more teams to other conferences, look for C-USA to be ready to act before next June.

I think the only thing the MW would be affected by is that BYU going to the Big 12 would change the stratedgy (if any) for expansion options. Not that the MW probably wouldn't mind having BYU back in, at least it will completely elminate that option of waiting to see if BYU Indy experiment fails.

Have to keep in mind Hawaii may be dropping football. On August 14 Hawaii AD Ben Jay said; “There's a very real possibility of football going away.” Hawaii has a $2.1 million budget deficit and with added expenses for cost of attendance in autonomy on the horizon the MW may be looking for another member. In all likelihood it would probably be UTEP.

It certainly makes sense to wait to see if they get raided a 2nd time. 12 makes senses for CUSA, but they also may want to stay at 14 anyway, and take 3 schools.

Big 12 takes Cincy, Memphis, UCF and BYU (Texas/TT, OK/OSU, KU, KSU and BYU in one division)

AAC takes something like Marshall, Rice and MTSU (based off mhver3 I know! But MTSU makes sense as a Memphis replacement, and Rice is a good get if not for Houston...)

CUSA is down to 10. Perhaps UTEP goes to MWC? They want the conference championship game and expanded by 2/3 or 4/5. In my mind candidates would be:

Georgia State - Atlanta market if nothing else as they transition
Georgia Southern - proven they can compete
(App State along with them? if expanding by 4)
Possibly independents army and umass
Also take a long hard look at Louisiana, Texas State, Arkansas State, and New Mexico St.

Idaho drops down to FCS.

If CUSA goes to 16 - that ends Sun Belt as a football conference.

If not, Sun Belt would have to pick up the schools CUSA didn't such as umass or army... but would have to bring up liberty, beg jmu/delaware, etc.

CUSA is holding off on replacing UAB at the very least until UAB is no longer in CUSA, as it should.

(12-10-2014 03:29 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  It certainly makes sense to wait to see if they get raided a 2nd time. 12 makes senses for CUSA, but they also may want to stay at 14 anyway, and take 3 schools.

Big 12 takes Cincy, Memphis, UCF and BYU (Texas/TT, OK/OSU, KU, KSU and BYU in one division)

AAC takes something like Marshall, Rice and MTSU (based off mhver3 I know! But MTSU makes sense as a Memphis replacement, and Rice is a good get if not for Houston...)

CUSA is down to 10. Perhaps UTEP goes to MWC? They want the conference championship game and expanded by 2/3 or 4/5. In my mind candidates would be:

Georgia State - Atlanta market if nothing else as they transition
Georgia Southern - proven they can compete
(App State along with them? if expanding by 4)
Possibly independents army and umass
Also take a long hard look at Louisiana, Texas State, Arkansas State, and New Mexico St.

Idaho drops down to FCS.

If CUSA goes to 16 - that ends Sun Belt as a football conference.

If not, Sun Belt would have to pick up the schools CUSA didn't such as umass or army... but would have to bring up liberty, beg jmu/delaware, etc.

If B12 needs only two teams, why would they take four? There will be no expansion talk for any conference until the NCAA meetings and the 12 game rule for championship is decided. My guess, if that goes down in flames as expected. That "could" start a re-alignment frenzy. My opinion is the smartest thing is to add Football Only for BYU and leave all others sports in the WAC. Then either Cincy or Boise join Football Only, joining the Big East or WAC. If the even get 10 Million a year, they have basically increased what they get 5x. Minimal cost to the B12 and creates P5 access for two schools. In addition, would not hurt NCAA Basketball bids especially for Cincy. In addition, this causes minimal re-alignment impact. AAC or MWC only needs one team. Probably pulled from CUSA. CUSA could stay at 12, which increases their CFP money per school. SB still needs one team to go to 12 if they want a championship game.

No. The announcement of UAB dropping isn't very old. They'll take time to evaluate both UAB's status and decide if they even want to expand again first. It's quite possible they don't. Why you can't invite #13 without #14 now given NCAA rules (round robin scheduling in conference), they'd probably give a waiver request on that given UAB dropped down on them (similarly they did for the MAC picking up homeless Temple). That might not last forever, but the CCGs rules might well be adjusted going forward anyway given increased pressure on that front.

As for the Big 12, you might be waiting weeks, but you might also be waiting years (that's my guess). Unless you get something very specific, you don't make any decisions based on them.

If I were commissioner of CUSA...

I'd do a straw poll of the presidents and if the result is likely negative on the matter of keeping them before the January meeting, I'd ask the presidents to hold off voting until the meeting at the basketball tournament. I would announce that is a serious decision that require thoughtful consideration and time for UAB to be to provide answers to the questions that the membership may have about the program's plans going forward.

Then once we get the tournament out of the way, I'd call for the vote.

That buys me three more months to work on the TV deal and three more months to have TV look at potential models (13, 14, 16) and three more months to see if the Big XII expansion jabber has any legs.

Get the tournament in Birmingham out of the way

(12-10-2014 03:53 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If I were commissioner of CUSA...

I'd do a straw poll of the presidents and if the result is likely negative on the matter of keeping them before the January meeting, I'd ask the presidents to hold off voting until the meeting at the basketball tournament. I would announce that is a serious decision that require thoughtful consideration and time for UAB to be to provide answers to the questions that the membership may have about the program's plans going forward.

Then once we get the tournament out of the way, I'd call for the vote.

That buys me three more months to work on the TV deal and three more months to have TV look at potential models (13, 14, 16) and three more months to see if the Big XII expansion jabber has any legs.

Get the tournament in Birmingham out of the way

All good points.

I think part of it though would be just how negative the decision was looking. If it was like 12-1 or 11-2- time isn't going to change that. If it was like 8-5 or even 9-4 then yeah maybe time would be helpeful.

One important distinction to note. Given that CUSA bylaws apparently require FBS football UAB's expulsion has technically already happened with the president's announcement that the program has terminated.

If they have the usual boilerplate language I've seen in other bylaws, CUSA actually has to do nothing, they are expelled June 30.

Because this involves a bylaw regarding membership, if CUSA is typical, it will require 10 affirmative votes to either:
A. Change the bylaw. or
B. Grant UAB a permanent waiver. or
C. Grant UAB a waiver for X number of years.

UAB football is gone unless a miracle happens. The final decision as to if UAB can stay in CUSA as "basketball only" will come in January unless something changes. An amendment to the CUSA bylaws is very unlikely. After that becomes official, CUSA will act quickly to get back to 14 or might even go the extra mile and add 3 to get to 16. Credit to CUSA, they are "proactive" vs being "reactive" like some conferences have been in the past. Serious front runners are Louisiana, Texas State, two "Ohio"based Mac schools along with lower interest in Georgia Southern and JMU. Several other schools have contacted CUSA to express interest but its not expected that they would get support from current member schools.

(12-10-2014 03:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  One important distinction to note. Given that CUSA bylaws apparently require FBS football UAB's expulsion has technically already happened with the president's announcement that the program has terminated.

If they have the usual boilerplate language I've seen in other bylaws, CUSA actually has to do nothing, they are expelled June 30.

Because this involves a bylaw regarding membership, if CUSA is typical, it will require 10 affirmative votes to either:
A. Change the bylaw. or
B. Grant UAB a permanent waiver. or
C. Grant UAB a waiver for X number of years.

I was wondering that. With that, don't think there's a chance they could get 10 affirmative votes to stay.

(12-10-2014 03:56 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(12-10-2014 03:53 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If I were commissioner of CUSA...

I'd do a straw poll of the presidents and if the result is likely negative on the matter of keeping them before the January meeting, I'd ask the presidents to hold off voting until the meeting at the basketball tournament. I would announce that is a serious decision that require thoughtful consideration and time for UAB to be to provide answers to the questions that the membership may have about the program's plans going forward.

Then once we get the tournament out of the way, I'd call for the vote.

That buys me three more months to work on the TV deal and three more months to have TV look at potential models (13, 14, 16) and three more months to see if the Big XII expansion jabber has any legs.

Get the tournament in Birmingham out of the way

All good points.

And one other reason to wait until March.

UAB would know how the straw poll went, that means they will be actively seeking other membership. If UAB can find another home and save me the press conference announcing that no bylaw change or waiver was granted by the conference.

If I can help them save that last scrap of dignity by choosing a new conference before I have to tell the world they've no home here, I'm going to do it.

(12-10-2014 04:01 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  UAB football is gone unless a miracle happens. The final decision as to if UAB can stay in CUSA as "basketball only" will supposedly come in January. An amendment to the CUSA bylaws is very unlikely. After that becomes official, CUSA will act quickly to get back to 14 or might even go the extra mile and add 3 to get to 16. Credit to CUSA, they are "proactive" vs being "reactive" like some conferences have been in the past. Serious front runners are Louisiana, Texas State, two "Ohio"based Mac schools along with lower interest in Georgia Southern and JMU. Several other schools have contacted CUSA to express interest but its not expected that they would get support from current member schools.

I think the only way they don't get back to 14 would be if something happens with UTEP going to the MWC. Then I could easily see CUSA sticking with 12.

(12-10-2014 04:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-10-2014 04:01 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  UAB football is gone unless a miracle happens. The final decision as to if UAB can stay in CUSA as "basketball only" will supposedly come in January. An amendment to the CUSA bylaws is very unlikely. After that becomes official, CUSA will act quickly to get back to 14 or might even go the extra mile and add 3 to get to 16. Credit to CUSA, they are "proactive" vs being "reactive" like some conferences have been in the past. Serious front runners are Louisiana, Texas State, two "Ohio"based Mac schools along with lower interest in Georgia Southern and JMU. Several other schools have contacted CUSA to express interest but its not expected that they would get support from current member schools.

I think the only way they don't get back to 14 would be if something happens with UTEP going to the MWC. Then I could easily see CUSA sticking with 12.

I'm hoping that something like that happens if we end up losing UAB. UTEP gets a change of scenery, and the rest of us get larger shares.

I'm told CUSA really likes the 14 team model for travel and scheduling purposes. Having travel partners in basketball and going to a Thursday/Saturday format in basketball has been cheaper for travel and better academically for the student athlete.

(12-10-2014 04:13 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  I'm told CUSA really likes the 14 team model for travel and scheduling purposes. Having travel partners in basketball and going to a Thursday/Saturday format in basketball has been cheaper for travel and better academically for the student athlete.

Let's pretend UTEP is gone along with UAB.
FAU/FIU
Marshall/ODU
WKy/Charlotte
So Miss/MTSU
Rice/La Tech
UTSA/N Texas

still keeps the travel partners and the Thu/Sat schedule. It's very workable.

I must say....I dont think the Sunbelt conference can make it longterm. I will be surprised if the Sunbelt exists 10 years from now.

(12-10-2014 04:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Let's pretend UTEP is gone along with UAB.

Why? MWC has no reason to want 13 football teams, and they're not going to add NMSU or Idaho as #14, nor is there any economic reason to want to divide whatever money they have 14 ways.

(12-10-2014 03:29 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  It certainly makes sense to wait to see if they get raided a 2nd time. 12 makes senses for CUSA, but they also may want to stay at 14 anyway, and take 3 schools.

Big 12 takes Cincy, Memphis, UCF and BYU (Texas/TT, OK/OSU, KU, KSU and BYU in one division)

AAC takes something like Marshall, Rice and MTSU (based off mhver3 I know! But MTSU makes sense as a Memphis replacement, and Rice is a good get if not for Houston...)

CUSA is down to 10. Perhaps UTEP goes to MWC? They want the conference championship game and expanded by 2/3 or 4/5. In my mind candidates would be:

Georgia State - Atlanta market if nothing else as they transition
Georgia Southern - proven they can compete
(App State along with them? if expanding by 4)
Possibly independents army and umass
Also take a long hard look at Louisiana, Texas State, Arkansas State, and New Mexico St.

Idaho drops down to FCS.

If CUSA goes to 16 - that ends Sun Belt as a football conference.

If not, Sun Belt would have to pick up the schools CUSA didn't such as umass or army... but would have to bring up liberty, beg jmu/delaware, etc.

The FBS playoff distribution agreement came out a few weeks after CUSA took in WKU. At that time speculation had CUSA going for the Sun Belt's jugular by taking 2 more schools to get to 16. The revenue distribution plan stopped that plan dead in its tracks. I can't see CUSA Presidents voting themselves a pay cut by further dividing up the playoff cash. Especially considering the uncertainty of the next TV contract. In 2010 CUSA's contract was for $11.3 million. That was down from the previous deal of $45.8 million when the membership included Cinn, Louisville, S Fla and TCU. I just don't see CUSA getting nearly the same amount this time around.