The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

UAB is favored by 6.5 points this weekend against North Texas. That scares me a bit; we don't normally do well when favored. Hope that trend changes Saturday.

It opened at UAB -3. It has moved a lot already.

I don't bet, so I don't completely understand the -6.5 versus +6.5. But, I just know that when we are not the underdog we typically don't fare too well. Hopefully, that is going to change.

As I understand the "line" process, the number is set in order to facilitate action on both sides of the line, not to say which team is necessarily better than the other. The line in turn moves according to the action it generates.

(10-08-2014 09:40 AM)BandGrad Wrote:  I don't bet, so I don't completely understand the -6.5 versus +6.5. But, I just know that when we are not the underdog we typically don't fare too well. Hopefully, that is going to change.

A negative betting line (-6.5 in this case) indicates the favorite. Alternately, the underdog gets the positive (+6.5). And by definition, they are the same number for both sides. Essentially, to attract roughly the same number of bets for UAB to cover as those for UNT to cover, UAB has to spot UNT 6.5 points (taken from UAB, so minus, and given to UNT, so plus). The key is that the line the house is setting is not their (or the bookie's) personal opinion of UAB or UNT. They are only interested in getting an equal number of bets on both side. So when the number stabilizes, you're seeing the cumulative "wisdom" of all the people betting on the game.

(10-08-2014 09:40 AM)BandGrad Wrote:  I don't bet, so I don't completely understand the -6.5 versus +6.5. But, I just know that when we are not the underdog we typically don't fare too well. Hopefully, that is going to change.

UAB -3 means UAB is favored by 3. Enough people have bet on UAB to move the line to UAB -6.5, or UAB is now favored by 6.5.

We're doomed.

A line in a game like this moving that much that early generally means some sharps jumped all over it. I don't know their reasoning for betting us, but they tend to know their stuff.

Those the same guys that bumped the UAB FIU thread up 7 points from when it was established?

Probably so. In actuality, they really weren't wrong. We don't lose the turnover battle 6-0 and we probably win the game.

Im talking strictly from a bettor's perspective here. They had the right side, just unfortunate circumstances came into play.

According to al.com, this team is good at causing turnovers and scoring on them. Hopefully, our o line is up to the task after the FIU game.

Only a fool bets on us.

(10-08-2014 10:51 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  In actuality, they really weren't wrong. We don't lose the turnover battle 6-0 and we probably win the game.

They really weren't wrong? Really? Nothing personal, 9911, but this line of reasoning always amazes me. Fact is, we DID turn it over six times, and we lost the game as a result.

When you make more game-winning plays than the other team, you win. When you make more game-losing plays than the other team, you lose. That's how that works.

I put the caveat of from a bettor's perspective in there for a reason. I understand we lost the game. I understand it doesn't matter how to us.

But to a bettor, their opinion may be that they had the right side but just caught some really bad breaks. It s like the night we shot the lights out against southern miss last year. Were we really the better team than them? Flakey things can happen in gambling, and that's why gambling is what it is.

It's not that we don't do well when favored, it's that it changes the expectation. Do we really do that much better when we're the underdogs or is it that a loss isn't a loss as long as we cover the spread?

If we're the underdog and we lose by more than the spread, oh well, we still lost.
If we're the underdog and we cover the spread, woohoo, moral victory
If we're the underdog and we win, take that stupid bookies, we've tuned a corner and none of you know anything about us...Conference Champs, Baby!

If we're the favorite, as fans, we become much more critical of everything that went wrong.

It's all about perspective.

I'll worry about tanking when/if the line clears double digits.

I'll take a 1 point victory however it would be nice to not have a stroke during the 4th quarter.

Early money w/ little in the pool causes wild swings but then again it could be just early bettors placing their money regardless of what end spread is (UAB homers betting their money).

Stats show us to have the better O w/ them breaking in a freshman QB but the D being about the same as ours other than sacks & t/o. I would think the game might play out a bit like FIU game but if we don't have the t/o's we did in that game we could win it

(10-08-2014 04:08 PM)blazerwkr Wrote:  Early money w/ little in the pool causes wild swings but then again it could be just early bettors placing their money regardless of what end spread is (UAB homers betting their money).

Stats show us to have the better O w/ them breaking in a freshman QB but the D being about the same as ours other than sacks & t/o. I would think the game might play out a bit like FIU game but if we don't have the t/o's we did in that game we could win it

There's not remotely enough UAB fans to push any of the major books by themselves...early or late. Even if every alum since sports started was a bettor it wouldn't be enough.

Our experience with FIU should pay dividends in this game.

Also, don't bet on CUSA Football.

Also, the line as it stands now sounds about right. 'Course I keep saying that!