(09-16-2014 08:51 AM)holyterror Wrote:  Funny how long a bye week period seems when you're cheering a good team.

Think the atmosphere will be like the Duke game last year?

(09-15-2014 09:42 PM)supertiger Wrote:  Most of the people betting on MTSU-Memphis are degenerate gamblers.

I love college athletics too much to EVER participate in organized gambling. It is an obvious threat to the integrity of the games.

(09-16-2014 08:57 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  

(09-16-2014 08:51 AM)holyterror Wrote:  Funny how long a bye week period seems when you're cheering a good team.

Think the atmosphere will be like the Duke game last year?

Are you kidding me?? Yes, atmosphere will be greater than the Duke game! We finally have a football team!!

(09-15-2014 09:50 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-15-2014 09:45 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-15-2014 09:32 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-15-2014 09:26 PM)tiger2000 Wrote:  

(09-15-2014 08:55 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Vegas makes their money on the "vig" (aka fee), correct?

yes, standard in vegas is about 9%. So for example -110, you have to bet $110 to win $100.

There is actually a strategy called middle betting that you can use to chase lines and bet on 2 teams playing one another to cover your bet somewhat similar to what the casinos do. Google it if you want to read more on it but it's advanced and requires knowing which games the odds are going to move enough on (and depends heavily on getting in on the right side of the spread early).

The bottom line is that the spread has only a little to do with who will win and a whole lot to do with oddsmakers helping bookmakers cover their bets.

Almost all odds come from Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) - read up on them, it's interesting reading.

All correct. I posted a short tutorial right above your post.

Thanks to each of you.

The variable of "Injuries, especially those of star players" and the increased spread prompts me to think that perhaps Ifedi will return in time for kickoff.

Injury info is a bookie's lifeblood. That's the stuff he digs for that coaches don't want out, and that the average fan never knows for certain. Bookies are just like any other "insiders," lol. They try to establish relationships with people inside the program.

I can see unknown injury info being a bettors lifeline...But not the bookie
as far as the money line goes...As stated before he wants even money on both sides and if you are setting your line based on PRIVATE info you may skew the bettors too far to one side.

Middle fans getting nervous

Quote:Opened at 7.5. What is going on???? That's a huge shift. Never mind the fact I thought 7.5 was high to begin with and would come down- it's almost doubled.

Also a classic sucker's bet, which terrifies me. Seems like easy money on Middle, which means we might get throttled. What am I missing here?

Line is -14 Memphis

(09-17-2014 06:46 PM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Middle fans getting nervous

Quote:Opened at 7.5. What is going on???? That's a huge shift. Never mind the fact I thought 7.5 was high to begin with and would come down- it's almost doubled.

Also a classic sucker's bet, which terrifies me. Seems like easy money on Middle, which means we might get throttled. What am I missing here?

Line is -14 Memphis

That is crazy.

While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Based on my recent study, the cause is bets are heavy on Memphis and Vegas increased the spread to reduce their exposure by attracting more money on bets for MTSU?

(09-17-2014 07:53 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Based on my recent study, the cause is bets are heavy on Memphis and Vegas increased the spread to reduce their exposure by attracting more money on bets for MTSU?

I haven't kept up with it recently, but in the pre-porter years we used to be a good team make a sneaky cover - whether we were favored or not.

Quote:We were a 28 point dog to GT 2 years ago when we beat the crap out of them and that was actually justified. This spread is just plain stupid. We have the 14th ranked best total offense in the country and we're tied for first in the redzone.

I like our chances. If I were a betting man, I'd plop $500.00 on this. No way is their D better than Minnesota nor is their O better than WKU. We've covered every spread thus far in 3 games and we are mentally tough. Can't explain that spread at all.

(09-17-2014 07:53 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Based on my recent study, the cause is bets are heavy on Memphis and Vegas increased the spread to reduce their exposure by attracting more money on bets for MTSU?

Correct. Their goal is to keep equal money bet on both sides, so one side pays off the other, and they take all the vig.

(09-17-2014 06:46 PM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Middle fans getting nervous

Quote:Opened at 7.5. What is going on???? That's a huge shift. Never mind the fact I thought 7.5 was high to begin with and would come down- it's almost doubled.

Also a classic sucker's bet, which terrifies me. Seems like easy money on Middle, which means we might get throttled. What am I missing here?

Line is -14 Memphis

Where did you see that? I just checked vegasinsider.com, and it's running -11.5 to -12.

(09-17-2014 08:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 06:46 PM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Middle fans getting nervous

Quote:Opened at 7.5. What is going on???? That's a huge shift. Never mind the fact I thought 7.5 was high to begin with and would come down- it's almost doubled.

Also a classic sucker's bet, which terrifies me. Seems like easy money on Middle, which means we might get throttled. What am I missing here?

Line is -14 Memphis

Where did you see that? I just checked vegasinsider.com, and it's running -11.5 to -12.

That's from the Middle board. Someone else said it was was -12 also. Still a 2 score game.

(09-17-2014 08:51 PM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 08:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 06:46 PM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Middle fans getting nervous

Quote:Opened at 7.5. What is going on???? That's a huge shift. Never mind the fact I thought 7.5 was high to begin with and would come down- it's almost doubled.

Also a classic sucker's bet, which terrifies me. Seems like easy money on Middle, which means we might get throttled. What am I missing here?

Line is -14 Memphis

Where did you see that? I just checked vegasinsider.com, and it's running -11.5 to -12.

That's from the Middle board. Someone else said it was was -12 also. Still a 2 score game.

345 MID TENNESSEE STATE 67u17 64 / 63 / 63.5 63 +378
346 MEMPHIS -7.5 -10.5 / -11.5 / -12.5 -12 -455


Check scoresandodds.com.

very accurate and they show line movements (not a gambling site in itself, they just show odds).

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Usually when a line moves that much somebody knows something. There is usually a reason. I could see Clemson/FSU moving 5 points or so with the 1st half suspension of jameis. who knows.

(09-17-2014 09:41 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Usually when a line moves that much somebody knows something. There is usually a reason. I could see Clemson/FSU moving 5 points or so with the 1st half suspension of jameis. who knows.

Used to see some of that several years ago during MAC conference games. Good $ was made, or so I have heard.

(09-17-2014 07:53 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:24 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-17-2014 07:06 PM)Mimi Wrote:  While I suspect we beat them something like 37-20, a 14 point betting line is still really big.

Especially moving from an opening line of -7.5. That is beyond unusual.

Based on my recent study, the cause is bets are heavy on Memphis and Vegas increased the spread to reduce their exposure by attracting more money on bets for MTSU?

Correct.

Many have mentioned this...but Vegas wants equal betting on each side...they make their money then on the vig.

So is this good or bad for us? I don't follow betting at all

(09-18-2014 07:48 PM)Bathtub Gin Wrote:  So is this good or bad for us? I don't follow betting at all

Neither. It just means your average joe blow took the tigers to cover the original spread so Vegas moved the line to make it more attractive to bet on MTSU.