Since we know that the top ranked champion of the G5 will get the automatic BCS Bowl slot let's start by ranking the top 10 candidates for that slot.
So let's start with the preseason top 10 G5

All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

I tend to agree with this statement but the top G5 champ does get the Access Bowl. I would postpone the rankings until the middle of the season and make it part of a bowl projection thread.

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

You might not like it but the facts are that our champ is basically competing for that open slot vs the other G5 champs.

(06-20-2014 08:31 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

I tend to agree with this statement but the top G5 champ does get the Access Bowl. I would postpone the rankings until the middle of the season and make it part of a bowl projection thread.

Good points.

since its June...and if they wanted to know which teams might have the best shot at getting the P5 Access Bowl Bid (not necessarily the best team), those with the easier shot at going undefeated have to be listed near the top...and much of that is based on easier non-conf schedule.

Projected good teams with easy non-conf schedules...regardless of strength of schedule...still think a conf champ that goes 13-0 would get the P5 spot...vs a team that played tough non-conf games (and lost 1 or 2 or more).

Marshall has one of the easiest non-conf schedules in nation:
at Miami, OH
Div I-AA RHODE ISLAND
OHIO
at Akron

Houston has only 1 tough non-conf game...so they have a real good shot at being 4-0 in non-conf play:
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO
Div I -AA GRAMBLING STATE
at BYU
UNLV

As I stated in another thread..the P5 committee will spend maybe 5 mins on the G5 Access Bowl Spot...and spend 99% of their time forming the Final Four Playoff spots...which is why "best record", i.e. not necessarily best team, will have a great shot to win the day..as probably most of those P5 Committee members probably didn't watch many/if any MAC, CUSA, MWC, etc...games.

Houston and Marshall have the easiest non conference slates so most likely to be undefeated into conference play.
After that I would put Boise, Bowling Green and Louisiana Lafayette.

It's interesting that in past years we were rooting for P5 schools to lose to G5 members but the new landscape basically makes it where we really want the AAC schools to win but the P5 to beat all other G5 conference opponents.

I don't think that looking at the top G5 champions is bad, the reality is that those are now are bigger threats. But that doesn't mean that we can't compare ourselves to the P5 top schools.

Best scenario is our champ is 13-0 or 12-1 and ranked in Top 10 and even be in talk for the playoffs. Those playoffs as long as they stay at FOUR is really pie in the sky but getting in the conversation is huge for the league.

Looking over the leagues I just have a hard time seeing any team from the Sun Belt, MAC or C-USA getting in. Marshall is the only team that stands a chance and they have to go 13-0 to even be considered with that schedule.

I honestly think it will be between us and the Mountain West every year and they seem to be on a down swing right now though. This is my list of teams that would be in consideration. I would be shocked if it wasn't someone from this list.

Cincinnati
UCF
Houston
ECU
Boise St
Utah St
Fresno St
Marshall (only if 13-0)

I think these are the potential candidates for the Access Bowl. No idea how they should be ranked until they've each played a few games, so for the time being I've ranked them in order of their non-conference strength of schedule.

1) ECU - South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
2) Fresno - Southern Cal, Utah, Nebraska
3) UCF - Penn State, Missouri, BYU
4) Cincy - Ohio State, Miami (FL)
5) SDSU - North Carolina, Oregon State
6) UL-Lafayette - Ole Miss, Boise State
7) Boise - Ole Miss, BYU
8) Houston - BYU
9) Marshall - N/A

I think if any two of these teams are undefeated, this will be the pecking order based on SOS. The exception being UL-L who may be penalized for being in the Sun Belt. It's hard to say how much a loss will hurt since nobody has any idea how the selection committee will think.

Say we have a 1-loss Fresno and an undefeated Marshall. Should a clearly top 15 Fresno be penalized for having a tougher schedule than Marshall? Should an undefeated Marshall be penalized because Louisville backed out of their game? Ideally both teams get into Access Bowls. There's nothing that says you can't have an at-large G5 team in addition to the auto-bid.

(06-20-2014 08:46 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

You might not like it but the facts are that our champ is basically competing for that open slot vs the other G5 champs.

Wow ... a voice of reason for the second time today! Yes, it is no use trying to deny the facts, as the Bearcats fans would. Even though none of us like it, we are indeed in the G5, and we are indeed competing for the G5 automatic Access spot.

My pre-season top 10:

1) Boise State
2) Cincinnati
3) Houston
4) Northern Illinois
5) UCF
6) SDSU
7) Fresno State
8) UL-Lafayette
9) Marshall
10) ECU

(06-20-2014 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:46 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

You might not like it but the facts are that our champ is basically competing for that open slot vs the other G5 champs.

Wow ... a voice of reason for the second time today! Yes, it is no use trying to deny the facts, as the Bearcats fans would. Even though none of us like it, we are indeed in the G5, and we are indeed competing for the G5 automatic Access spot.

My pre-season top 10:

1) Boise State
2) Cincinnati
3) Houston
4) Northern Illinois
5) UCF
6) SDSU
7) Fresno State
8) UL-Lafayette
9) Marshall
10) ECU

Boise State will fall out of contention after UCONN beats them at home...

1) #17 East Carolina (10-2, 8-0 AAC) Big wins: @ Virginia Tech, @ Cincinnati, UCF
2) #21 Cincinnati (10-2, 7-1 AAC) Big wins: @ Miami-FL, Houston
3) Central Florida (9-3, 7-1 AAC) Big wins: @ Houston, BYU
4) Marshall (11-1, 7-1 C-USA) Big wins: None
5) Boise State (9-3, 7-1 MWC) Big wins: Fresno State
6) Houston (9-3, 6-2 AAC) Big wins: None
7) Bowling Green (10-2, 8-0 MAC) Big wins: Ball State
8) Louisiana-Lafayette (10-2, 8-0 SB) Big wins: Arkansas State
8) Ball State (10-2, 7-1 MAC) Big wins: Northern Illinois
9) Fresno State (8-4, 7-1 MWC) Big wins: None
10) Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1 MAC) Big wins: None

Honorable mention:

11) San Diego State (8-4, 6-2 MWC) Big wins: None
12) Arkansas State (9-3, 7-1 SB) Big wins: None

(06-20-2014 09:30 AM)MechaKnight Wrote:  I think these are the potential candidates for the Access Bowl. No idea how they should be ranked until they've each played a few games, so for the time being I've ranked them in order of their non-conference strength of schedule.

1) ECU - South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
2) Fresno - Southern Cal, Utah, Nebraska
3) UCF - Penn State, Missouri, BYU
4) Cincy - Ohio State, Miami (FL)
5) SDSU - North Carolina, Oregon State
6) UL-Lafayette - Ole Miss, Boise State
7) Boise - Ole Miss, BYU
8) Houston - BYU
9) Marshall - N/A

I think if any two of these teams are undefeated, this will be the pecking order based on SOS. The exception being UL-L who may be penalized for being in the Sun Belt. It's hard to say how much a loss will hurt since nobody has any idea how the selection committee will think.

Say we have a 1-loss Fresno and an undefeated Marshall. Should a clearly top 15 Fresno be penalized for having a tougher schedule than Marshall? Should an undefeated Marshall be penalized because Louisville backed out of their game? Ideally both teams get into Access Bowls. There's nothing that says you can't have an at-large G5 team in addition to the auto-bid.

I agree with this. As much as SOS has been discussed, I tend to believe it will be used more heavily in the G5 champ selection than it it used/considered for the P5. Just a gut feeling the committee will be a little hypocritical...which could be beneficial to the AAC.

Either way...
1. AAC teams need to win as much as possible.
2. If a loss occurs, it needs to be a very close loss and against a tough opponent.
3. Pull against all other G5 teams, regardless of G5/P5 or G5/G5 matchups. We need our conference to stand out.

Just off the top of my head, here are 10 schools I think are serious contenders for the Gof5 spot (in alphabetical order):

Boise State - Many people are writing them off. I wouldn't overlook them. They were able to be maintain their success from Hawkins to Peterson, and might be able to maintain it under Harsin now.
Cincinnati - Double-digit wins in 5 of the last 7 years. It would be wise to keep an eye on the Bearcats.
East Carolina - A senior QB who has proven he can play and a defense that looks to be improving from the early years of the Ruff era. Big question is whether the Pirates can weather the schedule (@ South Carolina, North Carolina, @ VT, UCF, @ Cincinnati).
Fresno State - I almost left them off because they've got big shoes to fill at QB, but as is the case with UCF, I think the Bulldogs have enough talent to keep them in the hunt to defend the conference title. And if you've got a shot at the MW title, I think you've got a shot at the access bowl.
Houston - New stadium, sharp young QB, close games with BYU, Louisville, UCF and Cincinnati. Turn those close losses into wins and the Coogs are the real deal.
Marshall - Beat ECU and Maryland, nearly beat VT, and bring back a great QB. A lot of talk about a weak schedule, and they struggled on the road last year, so one loss and they are most likely out of the picture. But 13-0 vs a weak schedule is still hard to do and could get them the access slot.
Northern Illinois - 11 wins, 11 wins, 12 wins, 12 wins the last 4 seasons. NIU should be a contender.
San Diego State - 8 or 9 wins each of the last 4 years. Some scary losses last year, but more consistency puts them in the MW title conversation.
Utah State - 2 years ago, they were a 2-point loss to Wisconsin and a 3-point loss to BYU away from an undefeated year. Last year they lost the MWC title game to Fresno and beat NIU in a bowl game.
UCF - With 11 wins in 2010 and 10 in 2012, O'Leary seems to be over his even-year jinx. If UCF continues to play D at a high level and can find a capable replacement for Bortles, repeating as AAC champs could be in the cards.

Like I said, this is just off the top of my head, so I'm sure I've left off some solid teams...

(06-20-2014 09:33 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:46 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

You might not like it but the facts are that our champ is basically competing for that open slot vs the other G5 champs.

Wow ... a voice of reason for the second time today! Yes, it is no use trying to deny the facts, as the Bearcats fans would. Even though none of us like it, we are indeed in the G5, and we are indeed competing for the G5 automatic Access spot.

My pre-season top 10:

1) Boise State
2) Cincinnati
3) Houston
4) Northern Illinois
5) UCF
6) SDSU
7) Fresno State
8) UL-Lafayette
9) Marshall
10) ECU

Boise State will fall out of contention after UCONN beats them at home...

my top 10: based on strength (like an actual ranking) not likelihood of g5 spot

1) Houston: if okorn steps up this could be special season for houston
2) Cincy: could easily be #1 but i don't want to put that much blind faith in gunner without seeing him in a game
3) Utah State: return of QB chuckie keeton (had them top 25 when healthy 2 years ago)
4) UCF: return a alot of key players especially from a really good defense
5) Marshall: cato and a monster offense
6) ECU: i had them higher but realized marshall destroyed them and returns way more players
7) Boise: would have had them higher if not for coaching transition
8a) bowling green: won the MAC and return every major player
8b) Ulala: return star qb broadway and competed in close games with top level p5 when he was healthy
10) fresno: lost carr but return a good portion of the team and the master mind coach behind the offense, with a decent qb (they have numerous transfers) they could be back o a top level

bonus:
11) SDSU: return a lot o players from a good team last year and have alot to build on

note: byu and navy would have both made it if they were included

(06-20-2014 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:46 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:28 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  All due respect Cuban, that is like admitting we are a division below the P-5. That is an admission I want no part of.

You might not like it but the facts are that our champ is basically competing for that open slot vs the other G5 champs.

Wow ... a voice of reason for the second time today! Yes, it is no use trying to deny the facts, as the Bearcats fans would. Even though none of us like it, we are indeed in the G5, and we are indeed competing for the G5 automatic Access spot.

My pre-season top 10:

1) Boise State
2) Cincinnati
3) Houston
4) Northern Illinois
5) UCF
6) SDSU
7) Fresno State
8) UL-Lafayette
9) Marshall
10) ECU

In the other thread you said we wouldnt even finish top 4 in the AAC. . . now you rank us top 10 in all of the G5, and behind 3 american team. So which is it???!!

My G5 Top 10...FWIW

1 - Boise State
2 - Cincy
3 - UCF
4 - ECU
5 - Fresno St
6 - Houston
7 - Northern Illinois
8 - UL Lafayette
9 - Marshall
10 - SDSU

For our sake I hope it's either UC, ECU, or UCF. With the ooc schedule with any of those four teams, it'll lend credence to the conference, given that those teams win 2/3 of the ooc.

(06-20-2014 09:40 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Boise State - Many people are writing them off. I wouldn't overlook them. They were able to be maintain their success from Hawkins to Peterson, and might be able to maintain it under Harsin now.

Boise is still in the discussion, but they're not the consensus favorite for top non-AQ team like have been for the past decade. A win in their opener @ Ole Miss would make them a serious contender. UConn could do us all a big favor by beating Boise when they visit a couple weeks later.

Mine would be:
1. Cincy
2. UCF
3. Marshall
4. Boise
5. Bowling Green
6. ECU
7. Houston
8.ULL
9. SDSU
10. NIU