My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

I hear what you are saying about the American. However, future member Tulsa qualified from CUSA and SMU's status as the last school out may have been influenced by the fact the conference qualified 4 others. Like the Big East, time will tell whether this year's number is indicative of future performance or an aberration.

I see the BE and American as potential power conferences, equivalent to the P12 and SEC on average, but see the A10 as a step below that, more equivalent to the MWC, but above the West Coast.

(03-31-2014 09:46 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

I hear what you are saying about the American. However, future member Tulsa qualified from CUSA and SMU's status as the last school out may have been influenced by the fact the conference qualified 4 others. Like the Big East, time will tell whether this year's number is indicative of future performance or an aberration.

I see the BE and American as potential power conferences, equivalent to the P12 and SEC on average, but see the A10 as a step below that, more equivalent to the MWC, but above the West Coast.

I don't think any of us will be able to tell what impact realignment has had in basketball for several years. Until we see the effects on recruiting and on coaching hires, we're still in a transition period. Will UConn and Cincy be able to get the same quality players they got because of the visibility of the Old BE? Will more NBE coaching stars seek greener pastures in the P5?

Until those questions are answered, we're just guessing. My guess is that the poor visibility of FS1 is going to hurt the NBE big time.

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

(03-31-2014 11:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 09:46 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

I hear what you are saying about the American. However, future member Tulsa qualified from CUSA and SMU's status as the last school out may have been influenced by the fact the conference qualified 4 others. Like the Big East, time will tell whether this year's number is indicative of future performance or an aberration.

I see the BE and American as potential power conferences, equivalent to the P12 and SEC on average, but see the A10 as a step below that, more equivalent to the MWC, but above the West Coast.

I don't think any of us will be able to tell what impact realignment has had in basketball for several years. Until we see the effects on recruiting and on coaching hires, we're still in a transition period. Will UConn and Cincy be able to get the same quality players they got because of the visibility of the Old BE? Will more NBE coaching stars seek greener pastures in the P5?

Until those questions are answered, we're just guessing. My guess is that the poor visibility of FS1 is going to hurt the NBE big time.

What about questions of the P5? Programs like Notre Dame and Boston College have fallen off the map in the ACC. Maryland and Rutgers look to be bottom feeders in the B1G. What about all the older coaches in the ACC retiring?

(03-31-2014 11:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  I don't think any of us will be able to tell what impact realignment has had in basketball for several years. Until we see the effects on recruiting and on coaching hires, we're still in a transition period. Will UConn and Cincy be able to get the same quality players they got because of the visibility of the Old BE? Will more NBE coaching stars seek greener pastures in the P5?

Sure they can get players, as long as they keep winning and recruiting hard. Conference affiliation doesn't drive these things in hoops as much as it does in football. Winning consistently and having top-notch coaching is far more important. Gonzaga has been getting good players for a long time even though no one in the media thinks much of their conference. UConn can easily do the same.

Conversely, though, conference affiliation doesn't confer any magic benefit on their conference mates -- if your coaches aren't recruiting well, your team isn't winning, and your budget and facilities are way under par, then being in the same conference with UConn or Gonzaga (or Duke or Arizona or Kentucky) doesn't do squat for your team.

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

Regarding the Big East, those 10 schools earned a combined 35 bids in the 10 years prior to this season. 3.5 bids a year.

If that holds, they can probably expect to earn 6-9 units a year on average. This year, they got 4 teams in and earned 6 units.

Likewise, I believe the American will prove to be a 3.5 bid league which averages 6-9 units a year.

(03-31-2014 09:46 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

I hear what you are saying about the American. However, future member Tulsa qualified from CUSA and SMU's status as the last school out may have been influenced by the fact the conference qualified 4 others. Like the Big East, time will tell whether this year's number is indicative of future performance or an aberration.

I see the BE and American as potential power conferences, equivalent to the P12 and SEC on average, but see the A10 as a step below that, more equivalent to the MWC, but above the West Coast.

You put the A-10 on a level with the Mountain West...really?

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

Your calculations on the Big 12 are off. They divide shares 11 ways (counting the conference share) 10 ways if the conference share isn't calculated.

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

As has been pointed out, you can't move credits. Louiville, Syracuse, Pitt, etc. earned credits stay with the AAC, not ACC.

Second, while a blow to lose Louisville, they only earned 3 credits. SMU has the potential to earn 3 credits next year. They were the very last team out, and likely would have earned at least 1-2 if they were in. They will be a preseason top 3 AAC pick next year. Tulsa also earned a credit for CUSA and are being added. Will these offset Louisville, no. But it will at least partially offset the number of credits. The AAC has the potential to earn another 10 credits or so next year as well.

UConn 3-4 credits
UC 2-3 credits
Memphis 2-3 credits
SMU 1-2 credits
Tulsa and/or Houston could get a credit. Temple could rebound as well.

Total of appx +/- 10 credits on average.

(03-31-2014 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

I realize you can't move units. That is why I said "for analytical purposes". You seemed to be using units earned this year as a way of evaluating conference strength, not just for this year, but going forward. And going forward, what happened this year doesn't matter. It's my belief that, for a lot of reasons, the NBE, AAC and A10 are likely to be a notch below the P5 more often than not. There will be years when one of them breaks through, but over any longer period than a single season, say 3-5 years, The P5 will probably dominate.

P5 terminology is somewhat irrelevant in basketball. That line is much fuzzier than in football. Not totally irrelevant, but not a hard line either. Let's revisit this in 5 years and see how the A10 and AAC did in comparison to say, for example, the SEC or Pac 12. This year it was virtually equal.

(03-31-2014 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

In charge of what? You do realize that when decisions are made regarding individual teams from a conference, if that conference has a member on the selection committee he leaves the room for the discussion and vote. I never cease to be amazed at how quickly fans are to impugn the integrity of the men and women who agree to take on this thankless task.

(03-31-2014 12:24 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

I realize you can't move units. That is why I said "for analytical purposes". You seemed to be using units earned this year as a way of evaluating conference strength, not just for this year, but going forward. And going forward, what happened this year doesn't matter. It's my belief that, for a lot of reasons, the NBE, AAC and A10 are likely to be a notch below the P5 more often than not. There will be years when one of them breaks through, but over any longer period than a single season, say 3-5 years, The P5 will probably dominate.

No, the OP listed units earned "this year" and I equated it to the strength of the conferences "this year". It's typically only those that don't want to look at this year that start talking about "next year" or "going forward". In reality no one knows what the teams in their conference will do going forward...they are just guessing or maybe educated guessing.

What I talked about "going forward" was the revenue...because a unit is good for 6 years of revenue. So the revenue going forward for the American looks to be that of a P5 conference. In 10 years, who knows...that will depend on what happens in 2019 or whenever. It has been pointed out many times on this board that the American conference has a bunch of money in its coffers, it also has a bunch of tourney units...which is good for up to 6 more years of NCAA revenue. It collected BCS revenue this past FB season and has the ability going forward if its champ is highest rated. The only non P5 revenue it is lacking in is the TV money, which appears significantly undervalued considering the ratings from ESPN this past season in both football and basketball and including the BCS game and NCAA tourney.

Finally, the OP did a nice job of listing the "per team" revenue, which is accurately stated with the ACC having 15 mouths to feed and the SEC 14. The B1G will have 14 going forward. Rutgers still looks to be the biggest winner of conference re-alignment...adding relatively little to the on field revenue generated for its new conference. They are more than replaceable as a conference member for on field performance.

(03-31-2014 12:40 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 12:24 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

I realize you can't move units. That is why I said "for analytical purposes". You seemed to be using units earned this year as a way of evaluating conference strength, not just for this year, but going forward. And going forward, what happened this year doesn't matter. It's my belief that, for a lot of reasons, the NBE, AAC and A10 are likely to be a notch below the P5 more often than not. There will be years when one of them breaks through, but over any longer period than a single season, say 3-5 years, The P5 will probably dominate.

No, the OP listed units earned "this year" and I equated it to the strength of the conferences "this year". It's typically only those that don't want to look at this year that start talking about "next year" or "going forward". In reality no one knows what the teams in their conference will do going forward...they are just guessing or maybe educated guessing.

What I talked about "going forward" was the revenue...because a unit is good for 6 years of revenue. So the revenue going forward for the American looks to be that of a P5 conference. In 10 years, who knows...that will depend on what happens in 2019 or whenever. It has been pointed out many times on this board that the American conference has a bunch of money in its coffers, it also has a bunch of tourney units...which is good for up to 6 more years of NCAA revenue. It collected BCS revenue this past FB season and has the ability going forward if its champ is highest rated. The only non P5 revenue it is lacking in is the TV money, which appears significantly undervalued considering the ratings from ESPN this past season in both football and basketball and including the BCS game and NCAA tourney.

Finally, the OP did a nice job of listing the "per team" revenue, which is accurately stated with the ACC having 15 mouths to feed and the SEC 14. The B1G will have 14 going forward. Rutgers still looks to be the biggest winner of conference re-alignment...adding relatively little to the on field revenue generated for its new conference. They are more than replaceable as a conference member for on field performance.

They seem to be keeping a low profile, just hoping nobody will realize they just hit the Powerball.

(03-31-2014 12:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

If you are going to move Louisville's units to the ACC for analytical purposes, you also have to take them away from the American. Their claim to "power conference" status may be short lived. Next season's numbers will be more telling for both the AAC and the NBE.

My guess going forward is that those two, plus the A10, will occupy a niche between the P5 and the MWC.

You can't "move" units...they remain with the conference, so there is no reason to speculate one way or the other. If Louisville doesnt make the tourney next year, the ACC will have 0 units from Louisville and the American will have all of theirs from the past few years still generating revenue.

From that standpoint, since the American retains Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville units, they are on pretty much even par with the P5 in terms of revenue coming in from the NCAA tourney. It may change next year, but its hard to say with Temple most assuredly getting better, SMU an actual tourney team (I assume the ACC isn't in charge again) and the potential to equal this year's successes.

I think this list is a real accurate reflection of the thread I started regarding the disappointments of conferences this year and noting that the A-10 and American did better than many expected. The ACC was expected this year to at least compete with the B1G for total NCAA revenue and they are finishing 5th or so. The Big East finished behind the American and A-10. This is actual news....not the pre-season hype and talk issued by those two leagues.

In charge of what? You do realize that when decisions are made regarding individual teams from a conference, if that conference has a member on the selection committee he leaves the room for the discussion and vote. I never cease to be amazed at how quickly fans are to impugn the integrity of the men and women who agree to take on this thankless task.

That will be true of the football committee. I believe with the basketball committee, its only if it is your own school.

(03-31-2014 12:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

Your calculations on the Big 12 are off. They divide shares 11 ways (counting the conference share) 10 ways if the conference share isn't calculated.

???? First of all, they don't. In any event, why would you apply that to the Big 12 and not to every other conference? He applied the same methodology to every conference-Units/# of teams.

(03-31-2014 12:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 12:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:08 AM)orangefan Wrote:  My calculation of he final number of units earned by conferences in this year's tournament. All conferences not listed earned one unit.

Big Ten - 16 (1.33/school)
PAC 12 - 14 (1.17/school)
SEC - 14 (1.0/school)
Big 12 - 13 (1.3/school)
ACC - 12 (0.8/school)
American - 11 (1.1/school)
Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)
Big East - 6 (0.6/school)
Mountain West - 4 (0.36/school)
West Coast - 3 (0.3/school)
America East - 2
Atlantic Sun - 2
Big West - 2
Ivy League - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Southland - 2
Summit - 2

Based on experience, a "power" conference should average 1 unit per member school per year. The B1G led the way this year, but of course will have 14 mouths to feed next year. The ACC came up short this year, but has UL coming in next year, who would have added 3 units getting it to the target 15. The American clearly staked its claim to power conference status. The BE disappointed, but one year is always too small of a sample.

Your calculations on the Big 12 are off. They divide shares 11 ways (counting the conference share) 10 ways if the conference share isn't calculated.

???? First of all, they don't. In any event, why would you apply that to the Big 12 and not to every other conference? He applied the same methodology to every conference-Units/# of teams.

I didn't apply it, he counted 13 schools for the Big 12. I was pointing out that 11 shares if you counted the conference (which he didn't for any of them) and 10 if you didn't. Go back and look at his original post.

(03-31-2014 12:40 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  No, the OP listed units earned "this year" and I equated it to the strength of the conferences "this year".

Yes, that's just one approach to deriving a power rating, so "next year" speculations, or "so and so should have been a tourney team" are beside the point ... whatever criteria are used to suggest who should or shouldn't have been in the tourney would be for a power rating on a different foundation than this one.

And its not an accounting of conference distributions, since some conference distribute equally, some include a conference share for conference overheads (as noted above), and some rely on bonus distributions ... for the most extreme case of the latter, the A10 is 25:75, so
"Atlantic 10 - 10 (0.77/school)"

... is from a conference distribution standpoint 0.1925/school for those that did not go, 0.9425 for the schools that were one and out, 1.6925 for SLU and I guess 3.1925 for Dayton (yowza).