I love how the Fresno yahoos call us whiners and then come over here to whine about the computers. None of it will matter. Fresno will lose to a less than mediocre team very soon like they have already done against SD State.

(11-25-2013 07:51 AM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:50 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:40 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  He's probably mad that he's awful at his job and was wrong.

Yep.

I mean, he is consistently wrong.

If I projected tax amounts wrong and messed up tax legislation as much as he projects wrongly I would be canned and certainly not considered an expert.

So you're against U.S. going to a full sales tax only and getting rid of the IRS?

Well for me, I'd be okay. I work on sales and use tax projects for manufacturers in healthcare in Texas and manufacturers is Arkansas. So since my firm provides sales tax services for most of the Fortune 500 we would be good as far as job security goes.

However, I don't really have a comment on the current tax code, I'm also not confident they can write a better one. It's really enforcement issues, because the govt doesn't have the brains or resources to enforce almost anything they pass.

To sum up, the computers have us ahead of Fresno by more than I would expect, and the voters have Fresno ahead of us by more than I would expect. Of course our computer numbers will change after playing WMU.

I also want to know what "recalibrate" means in this context. That could change everything. I don't understand.

(11-25-2013 02:51 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:34 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 01:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  And just to throw 1 fact in there, NIU does have a better SOS than Fresno State.

So where do you find this listing of our school's SOS? I presume from one of these math / computer geniuses?

Speaking of which, at this link ==> http://cfn.scout.com/2/1347926.html, Pete Fiutak says this, "Remember, and this has to keep being said over and over and over again, the computer formulas recalibrate and the end of the season." Any math geniuses out there know what that means? It sounds to me like they get a do-over.

I'm an insurance guy so I don't know diddly about the modeling behind these formulae. But none of my fancy smanschy Excel formulae need recalibrating. So what's the deal?

Yoda out...



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Well obviously NIU has 3 wins that are better than even Fresno's best win in Iowa, Toledo, and Ball State. Fresno did not play as many teams in that 110-125 range but feasted on teams in the 80-120 range. NIU has clearly the better top end schedule though, should be interesting but as an NIU fan I fear humans decide this in favor of Fresno.

Okay now that I get where your assertion that your SOS is higher, I think your logic is breaking down here...

I'm challenging the accuracy of formulae that say that your SOS is higher than ours. You then point out as counterpoint the "fact" that your SOS is higher. So you are using as "proof" that your SOS is higher the very formulae that I'm challenging.

I still say, there is something wrong with any formula that calculates that a team with soon to be 5 victories in 12 games over teams with two or mostly fewer wins is sufficiently difficult to justify ranking that:

1. team as a top 10 team, and

2. that conference as a stronger conference than the MWC.

Yoda out...



.

(11-25-2013 10:06 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:51 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:34 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 01:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  And just to throw 1 fact in there, NIU does have a better SOS than Fresno State.

So where do you find this listing of our school's SOS? I presume from one of these math / computer geniuses?

Speaking of which, at this link ==> http://cfn.scout.com/2/1347926.html, Pete Fiutak says this, "Remember, and this has to keep being said over and over and over again, the computer formulas recalibrate and the end of the season." Any math geniuses out there know what that means? It sounds to me like they get a do-over.

I'm an insurance guy so I don't know diddly about the modeling behind these formulae. But none of my fancy smanschy Excel formulae need recalibrating. So what's the deal?

Yoda out...



.

Well obviously NIU has 3 wins that are better than even Fresno's best win in Iowa, Toledo, and Ball State. Fresno did not play as many teams in that 110-125 range but feasted on teams in the 80-120 range. NIU has clearly the better top end schedule though, should be interesting but as an NIU fan I fear humans decide this in favor of Fresno.

Okay now that I get where your assertion that your SOS is higher, I think your logic is breaking down here...

I'm challenging the accuracy of formulae that say that your SOS is higher than ours. You then point out as counterpoint the "fact" that your SOS is higher. So you are using as "proof" that your SOS is higher the very formulae that I'm challenging.

I still say, there is something wrong with any formula that calculates that a team with soon to be 5 victories in 12 games over teams with two or mostly fewer wins is sufficiently difficult to justify ranking that:

1. team as a top 10 team, and

2. that conference as a stronger conference than the MWC.

Yoda out...



.

I think what he is trying to get at that the upper tier of the MAC is better than the upper tier of the MWC. The bottom of the MAC is awful, yes, but the majority of the the MWC is extrememly mediocre. Hence the reason everyone but Fresno hanging around 7 wins or less.

There's three teams in NIU's DIVISION with 7+ wins (NIU included).

Also, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the average SOS when lined up team to team, NIU's is higher, even with having some bottom tier opponents. I also believe that NIU's SOS is higher, hence the reason NIU's computer scores are higher.

That's not even factoring in that NIU has more road wins and more AQ wins.

While giddy myself and enjoying the controversy, the moment in sunshine and bright lites shining on Huskies, it all goes to prove what many know for certain and should be able to agree upon:

1) The BCS ranking system is highly flawed. Little wonder it will be history next season. We have proven to be a "Moncky" wrench once and OMG may do so again.

2) There is NO WAY my beloved NIU Huskies are in same level as an OK State, Baylor, Oregon etc...

3) This season has been nothing short of enormously entertaining for NIU fans. We should all be extra thankful during this week.

Living the Dream,

Cyberdawg

(11-25-2013 07:51 AM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:50 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:48 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:40 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  He's probably mad that he's awful at his job and was wrong.

Yep.

I mean, he is consistently wrong.

If I projected tax amounts wrong and messed up tax legislation as much as he projects wrongly I would be canned and certainly not considered an expert.

So you're against U.S. going to a full sales tax only and getting rid of the IRS?

Yes.

(11-25-2013 10:33 AM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  I think what he is trying to get at that the upper tier of the MAC is better than the upper tier of the MWC. The bottom of the MAC is awful, yes, but the majority of the the MWC is extrememly mediocre. Hence the reason everyone but Fresno hanging around 7 wins or less.

There's three teams in NIU's DIVISION with 7+ wins (NIU included).

Also, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the average SOS when lined up team to team, NIU's is higher, even with having some bottom tier opponents. I also believe that NIU's SOS is higher, hence the reason NIU's computer scores are higher.

That's not even factoring in that NIU has more road wins and more AQ wins.

I don't think that three teams with 7 wins is compelling as the reason for it is the weakness at the bottom. If you've got 3 or 4 gimme's, it's not all that difficult to get to 7 wins. We've got a lot more parity so getting to 7 wins is more difficult.

Iowa is a better OOC win than Rutgers -- although I will say that Rutgers was a stronger team when we played them than they became later in the year. They had a lot of injuries. The computers use the body of their work -- not the strength of their work at game time.

Interestingly, I read that we would be above you in the computer rankings if the Colorado game hadn't been "flooded out". That's assuming that we won, of course. We won by 55 last year so you'd expect we'd have done so -- but we started slow so who knows?

I'll concede the road wins and the AQ wins -- although again, Colorado would likely have evened that score.

I would agree that NIU has a higher SOS and that that accounts for the higher computer rankings. But it is the SOS calculation that I am challenging. It is implausible that a team that has played as many 1 and 2 win schools as you have played could have as high an SOS as you have.

Yoda out...



.

It's football. Everybody has more injuries now than they did when the year started.

NIU has 2 wins better than any win Fresno has. Boise and Toledo are probably equal.

(11-25-2013 11:00 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 10:33 AM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  I think what he is trying to get at that the upper tier of the MAC is better than the upper tier of the MWC. The bottom of the MAC is awful, yes, but the majority of the the MWC is extrememly mediocre. Hence the reason everyone but Fresno hanging around 7 wins or less.

There's three teams in NIU's DIVISION with 7+ wins (NIU included).

Also, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the average SOS when lined up team to team, NIU's is higher, even with having some bottom tier opponents. I also believe that NIU's SOS is higher, hence the reason NIU's computer scores are higher.

That's not even factoring in that NIU has more road wins and more AQ wins.

.
We won by 55 last year so you'd expect we'd have done so -- but we started slow so who knows?

By that logic, Fresno would lose to SMU by 33 points like they did last year.

(11-25-2013 11:03 AM)7 Wrote:  It's football. Everybody has more injuries now than they did when the year started.

NIU has 2 wins better than any win Fresno has. Boise and Toledo are probably equal.

Even if that is true, and I don't believe that it is, those wins are not so much better as to offset the weakness at the bottom of your schedule.

Everybody has injuries but some get hit by it worse or far worse than others. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it but I've heard that Rutgers has been hit far harder than most by injuries and a defection. The computers don't take that into consideration but the humans very well may.

Yoda out...



.

(11-25-2013 11:08 AM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 11:00 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 10:33 AM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  I think what he is trying to get at that the upper tier of the MAC is better than the upper tier of the MWC. The bottom of the MAC is awful, yes, but the majority of the the MWC is extrememly mediocre. Hence the reason everyone but Fresno hanging around 7 wins or less.

There's three teams in NIU's DIVISION with 7+ wins (NIU included).

Also, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the average SOS when lined up team to team, NIU's is higher, even with having some bottom tier opponents. I also believe that NIU's SOS is higher, hence the reason NIU's computer scores are higher.

That's not even factoring in that NIU has more road wins and more AQ wins.

.
We won by 55 last year so you'd expect we'd have done so -- but we started slow so who knows?

By that logic, Fresno would lose to SMU by 33 points like they did last year.

I didn't say that we would win by 55 -- I said that we would probably win. Fifty-six point turnarounds in a single season are not common. And we were heavily favored that week, before the game was cancelled.

Yoda out...



.

So who on your schedule is better than Iowa or Ball State?

You can sit here and say "those wins are not so much better as to offset the weakness at the bottom of your schedule" all you want, but the unbiased computers obviously feel as if NIU's resume is much stronger than Fresno's.

The best thing to happen to Fresno this year was NIU getting whacked by FSU last year in the Orange Bowl while Fresno got rolled in a boll nobody watched. Pretty much the only reason this is a discussion.

Quote:NIU has 2 wins better than any win Fresno has. Boise and Toledo are probably equal.

#42 - Ball State
#46 - Toledo
#56 - Buffalo
#57 - San Diego State
#58 - Boise State
#62 - Bowling Green
#64 - Utah State
#79 - Ohio
#82 - UNLV
#85 - San Jose State
#90 - Central Michigan

So, someone tell me how the Mountain West is better than the MAC this year?

(11-25-2013 11:15 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 11:03 AM)7 Wrote:  It's football. Everybody has more injuries now than they did when the year started.

NIU has 2 wins better than any win Fresno has. Boise and Toledo are probably equal.

Even if that is true, and I don't believe that it is, those wins are not so much better as to offset the weakness at the bottom of your schedule.

Everybody has injuries but some get hit by it worse or far worse than others. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it but I've heard that Rutgers has been hit far harder than most by injuries and a defection. The computers don't take that into consideration but the humans very well may.

Yoda out...



.

Even if Rutgers was healthy, they aren't better than Iowa. Iowa's 4 losses are all to top 15 BCS teams. Rutgers also plays in a weaker conference. I think a lot of people forgot, that playing on the west coast is difficult for the east coasters and they went for 2 when they didn't need to. Not making excuses, but calling a spade a spade.

How does the fact NIU played cupcakes make the top wins any worse? It doesn't at all, it makes the schedule worse but not the top wins.

Also, by that logic so would Fresno's. I didn't know NM, AF, Nevada, and Hawaii were all awesome teams.

I stand by what 7 is saying. Of NIU's top three wins over teams with 10, 8, and 7 wins, they won by an average of 14 points. Two victories on the road.

Fresno's top three wins are over opponents with 5, 7, and 7 wins. Two of which were at home. Average margin of victory....1.6.

Tell me which is more impressive.

(11-25-2013 11:18 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 11:08 AM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 11:00 AM)Yoda Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 10:33 AM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  I think what he is trying to get at that the upper tier of the MAC is better than the upper tier of the MWC. The bottom of the MAC is awful, yes, but the majority of the the MWC is extrememly mediocre. Hence the reason everyone but Fresno hanging around 7 wins or less.

There's three teams in NIU's DIVISION with 7+ wins (NIU included).

Also, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the average SOS when lined up team to team, NIU's is higher, even with having some bottom tier opponents. I also believe that NIU's SOS is higher, hence the reason NIU's computer scores are higher.

That's not even factoring in that NIU has more road wins and more AQ wins.

.
We won by 55 last year so you'd expect we'd have done so -- but we started slow so who knows?

By that logic, Fresno would lose to SMU by 33 points like they did last year.

I didn't say that we would win by 55 -- I said that we would probably win. Fifty-six point turnarounds in a single season are not common. And we were heavily favored that week, before the game was cancelled.

Yoda out...



.

... Sorry if I misread, but " We won by 55 last year so you'd expect we'd have done so " seems to tell me that you are trying to say that you would have done the same thing as you did last year... Which was beat them by ~55 points. What I'm getting at is - you can not base what you do this year off of what you did last year - because If we do, then Fresno Should be 9-4 and you wouldn't even be here.

Just want to add, when Rutgers "was healthy" they were outgained by lowly Eastern Michigan. Rutgers wins are over teams with records of 2-9, 3-9 (FCS), 5-5, 3-8, and 1-10.

The mighty scarlet knights are SUPER tough.

(11-25-2013 11:20 AM)7 Wrote:  So who on your schedule is better than Iowa or Ball State?

You can sit here and say "those wins are not so much better as to offset the weakness at the bottom of your schedule" all you want, but the unbiased computers obviously feel as if NIU's resume is much stronger than Fresno's.

The best thing to happen to Fresno this year was NIU getting whacked by FSU last year in the Orange Bowl while Fresno got rolled in a boll nobody watched. Pretty much the only reason this is a discussion.

I conceded Iowa; I don't concede Ball State. You are relying for proof on the very SOS calculations that I'm challenging. That isn't proof; it isn't even hard evidence. In my opinion, Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State (who we will apparently play soon) are all better than anyone in your conference -- including you. But I can't prove it any more than you can prove that they are not.

And computers are only as unbiased (and as competent) as their programmers and the assumptions that they make. There are computer programs that leave us out of the top 25 and there is one that puts us at number 6. Even if they are unbiased, they cannot possibly all be credible.

Yoda out...



.

Guys, please stop feeding the troll.

(11-25-2013 11:27 AM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  Just want to add, when Rutgers "was healthy" they were outgained by lowly Eastern Michigan. Rutgers wins are over teams with records of 2-9, 3-9 (FCS), 5-5, 3-8, and 1-10.

The mighty scarlet knights are SUPER tough.

Point taken. Honestly, I haven't followed them all that much so I probably shouldn't have said anything.

Yoda out...



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