If "the powers" seed them too low, some high seed will fall as the Dukes are not a joke. If JMU gets a proper high seed, then it gives cred to Sun Belt basketball and begs the question, "should this conference be a two bid conference?"
My thoughts. What are yours?
JMU will likely go to at least the Sweet 16, if not the Final Four. If you become ODU's "rival" in basketball your team automatically becomes a favorite to go to the F4. See VCU, GMU, FAU.
That said, I imagine they get a 12 seed. I think they deserve a 10 or 11, but the committee will under seed them. I wouldnt be shocked to see them get a 13, but it would be a travesty.
I'll be a little optimistic and guess 11.
(03-15-2024 11:28 AM)monarx Wrote: [ -> ]JMU will likely go to at least the Sweet 16, if not the Final Four. If you become ODU's "rival" in basketball your team automatically becomes a favorite to go to the F4. See VCU, GMU, FAU.
That said, I imagine they get a 12 seed. I think they deserve a 10 or 11, but the committee will under seed them. I wouldnt be shocked to see them get a 13, but it would be a travesty.
Don't think we can say FAU was ever our rival. Never heard of the other two you mentioned.
Agree, 11-13 but 13 would really be an insult. 12 most likely.
I think JMU will get an 11 seed but deserves better. Had they at least split with App I think they could be at a 9.
The disgusting thing is how a .500 "power conference" squad will probably be spoonfed a lower seed.
Deserve 11, will get 14. I have no faith in the committee to not mess up the bracket
(03-15-2024 11:55 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote: [ -> ]Deserve 11, will get 14. I have no faith in the committee to not mess up the bracket
No way we get a 14 and a 13 is really unlikely as if you just sort by NET we are borderline 11/12 depending on who gets in. Comparable NET teams from last year were 12 seeds, but there is a much softer bubble this year. ULL was a 13 and was 89 in NET.
It really comes down to what committee values. If it is just about the NET and Q1 wins we will be a 12, but if they value wins and particularly road and neutral wins then we have a good shot at an 11 or even a 10. We have by far the most road/neutral wins of any team in country.
I think most are missing the biggest factor here. That is that they will 100% be facing another non power school so they can guarantee one will go home. So if Utah St is a 5 then JMU will be a 12 or maybe they'll make Utah St a 6 and then the Dukes will be an 11. Hell might get all crazy and match you up with Dayton as 8/9 seeds.
the committee often does some weird stuff. JMU wouldn't have been an at large team, so in theory they would be 13-16..but, i see them getting a 12, better seed than some of the teams that they would have given an at large bid to.
(03-15-2024 12:54 PM)Stat Geek Wrote: [ -> ]the committee often does some weird stuff. JMU wouldn't have been an at large team, so in theory they would be 13-16..but, i see them getting a 12, better seed than some of the teams that they would have given an at large bid to.
There is no at large getting a 13 seed or worse. The 12 seed line is where you get the worst at larges, so it’d make sense they’d be around there. You’ve got some conferences that were projected above JMU that had those teams lose and might slide behind them (A10, MAC). I don’t think an 11 is out of the realm of possibility.
(03-15-2024 01:15 PM)herdfan2013 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-15-2024 12:54 PM)Stat Geek Wrote: [ -> ]the committee often does some weird stuff. JMU wouldn't have been an at large team, so in theory they would be 13-16..but, i see them getting a 12, better seed than some of the teams that they would have given an at large bid to.
There is no at large getting a 13 seed or worse. The 12 seed line is where you get the worst at larges, so it’d make sense they’d be around there. You’ve got some conferences that were projected above JMU that had those teams lose and might slide behind them (A10, MAC). I don’t think an 11 is out of the realm of possibility.
I might not have explained it well. Since JMU would not have been an at large, 13 is probably where they are. But, even though they would not have gotten in as an at large, I expect the committee to make them a 12.
(03-15-2024 01:15 PM)herdfan2013 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-15-2024 12:54 PM)Stat Geek Wrote: [ -> ]the committee often does some weird stuff. JMU wouldn't have been an at large team, so in theory they would be 13-16..but, i see them getting a 12, better seed than some of the teams that they would have given an at large bid to.
There is no at large getting a 13 seed or worse. The 12 seed line is where you get the worst at larges, so it’d make sense they’d be around there. You’ve got some conferences that were projected above JMU that had those teams lose and might slide behind them (A10, MAC). I don’t think an 11 is out of the realm of possibility.
Any team other than Dayton out of A-10 or MAC was going to be behind us any way. I agree that it is better than 50/50 we are playing a non major and would love to play Dayton in say a 7/10 game in Charlotte which is not out of realm of possibilities.
As a fan who will be going to the game pretty much wherever it is sans maybe Spokane I am really hoping for Brooklyn or Pittsburgh.
(03-15-2024 12:24 PM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]I think most are missing the biggest factor here. That is that they will 100% be facing another non power school so they can guarantee one will go home.
If this isn't the truth, I'll eat my hat. Gah, we all know this will happen.
(03-15-2024 12:24 PM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]I think most are missing the biggest factor here. That is that they will 100% be facing another non power school so they can guarantee one will go home. So if Utah St is a 5 then JMU will be a 12 or maybe they'll make Utah St a 6 and then the Dukes will be an 11. Hell might get all crazy and match you up with Dayton as 8/9 seeds.
This.
I'm thinking 11 seed at this point.
I think the 31-3 record pushes them to that seeding.
Heck, we might even get surprised with a higher seeding for JMU.
(03-15-2024 12:24 PM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]I think most are missing the biggest factor here. That is that they will 100% be facing another non power school so they can guarantee one will go home. So if Utah St is a 5 then JMU will be a 12 or maybe they'll make Utah St a 6 and then the Dukes will be an 11. Hell might get all crazy and match you up with Dayton as 8/9 seeds.
This is the correct answer
Also, I think they are a 12.
Depends on how many surprises you see with conference tourney champs. If you get a few more bid stealers then they will get worse seeds than JMU.
Aren’t 4 of the 6 #11 seeds in the first 4 ? So that leaves only 2 slots where JMU could be a #11 seed.
Seems like the odds favor a #12 seed just based on the inventory of open slots.
Regardless, they should be a very slight underdog and playing on a neutral court which is all you can ask for.
I'd guess them to end up as a 12 seed playing in Brooklyn or Pittsburg.
(03-15-2024 07:00 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote: [ -> ]Depends on how many surprises you see with conference tourney champs. If you get a few more bid stealers then they will get worse seeds than JMU.
Aren’t 4 of the 6 #11 seeds in the first 4 ? So that leaves only 2 slots where JMU could be a #11 seed.
Seems like the odds favor a #12 seed just based on the inventory of open slots.
Regardless, they should be a very slight underdog and playing on a neutral court which is all you can ask for.
Good chance with weak bubble they make one play in matchup a 12/12 matchup. A lot of it also has to do with ensuring certain rules are met if at all possible. For instance BYU will play Thursday and Saturday and if needed this could have them go up or down a seed line.