There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.
Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.
(03-01-2024 09:44 AM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.
Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.
If UTSA and Colorado State are in 'the best of the rest' then no one is being 'gotten'.
(03-01-2024 09:59 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 09:44 AM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.
Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.
If UTSA and Colorado State are in 'the best of the rest' then no one is being 'gotten'.
UTSA was the third best team going into the last week of play last year in a three way tie for first in the conference.
The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.
If the Florida State lawsuit is "successful" the programs that might be attractive to either the SEC or Big10 would of course be Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami, and Virginia. If the ACC loses those three - five it will affect their media contract to the extent they may then lose a team or two to the Big 12. And with that the next domino will be a backfill with the best g5s. USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn / or drops football.
(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ]The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.
I don’t think anyone is exactly champing at the bit to leave either of the M2 and pay $100m for a lateral move. The ACC might stick together and only lose a couple schools, but that wouldn’t enable them to raid the Big 12. It would, however, make it unlikely that the big 12 could raid the ACC, and it would help to greatly stabilize the entire P4 for now.
I think it makes too much sense that the B12-ACC and the best of the G5 merge into a giant 40 member conference and start using their influence to make rules that benefit them. Capitalize on their elite basketball product, make a first of it's kind promotion-relegation conference for football and basketball. The ACC-B12 are working against each other while the SEC-B1G are working with each other, that needs to change.
(03-01-2024 11:03 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]I think it makes too much sense that the B12-ACC and the best of the G5 merge into a giant 40 member conference and start using their influence to make rules that benefit them. Capitalize on their elite basketball product, make a first of it's kind promotion-relegation conference for football and basketball. The ACC-B12 are working against each other while the SEC-B1G are working with each other, that needs to change.
Merge into one vote rather than remain at two. Makes a ton of sense.
(03-01-2024 11:04 AM)esayem Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 11:03 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]I think it makes too much sense that the B12-ACC and the best of the G5 merge into a giant 40 member conference and start using their influence to make rules that benefit them. Capitalize on their elite basketball product, make a first of it's kind promotion-relegation conference for football and basketball. The ACC-B12 are working against each other while the SEC-B1G are working with each other, that needs to change.
Merge into one vote rather than remain at two. Makes a ton of sense.
Perhaps they could make an Alliance. But they'll need a neutral 3rd party to run this "Alliance", I wonder if Kevin Warren is available? No, wait, Kliavkoff can run it, he's not working now, he's a great Yes Man and he has plenty of experience overestimating the power of his group.
(03-01-2024 11:09 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 11:04 AM)esayem Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 11:03 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]I think it makes too much sense that the B12-ACC and the best of the G5 merge into a giant 40 member conference and start using their influence to make rules that benefit them. Capitalize on their elite basketball product, make a first of it's kind promotion-relegation conference for football and basketball. The ACC-B12 are working against each other while the SEC-B1G are working with each other, that needs to change.
Merge into one vote rather than remain at two. Makes a ton of sense.
Perhaps they could make an Alliance. But they'll need a neutral 3rd party to run this "Alliance", I wonder if Kevin Warren is available? No, wait, Kliavkoff can run it, he's not working now, he's a great Yes Man and he has plenty of experience overestimating the power of his group.
That hurt
(03-01-2024 11:04 AM)esayem Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 11:03 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]I think it makes too much sense that the B12-ACC and the best of the G5 merge into a giant 40 member conference and start using their influence to make rules that benefit them. Capitalize on their elite basketball product, make a first of it's kind promotion-relegation conference for football and basketball. The ACC-B12 are working against each other while the SEC-B1G are working with each other, that needs to change.
Merge into one vote rather than remain at two. Makes a ton of sense.
Divide into more conferences, is that the answer?
I like a 'best of the rest' M1 league with ACC and B12 leftovers. Something like three divisions of eight teams can allow for regional play. And the leftover schools are probably a big enough draw to stay afloat (vs G5 conferences), especially if the ACC network stays in place over the remainder.
West: Wash St, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona St
Central: Iowa St., Kansas St., Okla St., Texas Tech, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston
East: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Wake Forest, UCF
At this tier, there's a lot of fungibility for P2 candidates (Stanford/Cal, ASU/UofA, Colorado, Kansas) but plenty of back-fills, if needed (UConn, USF, etc.).
(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ]The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.
If by more difficult, you mean the decision can no longer be unilaterally made on a campus, then I agree. I also agree that the ACC with its top brands is stronger than the current B12.
The North Carolina state legislature, like California's, will be pretty feckless when it comes to realignment. Here's the policy change North Carolina enacted:
"The UNC System Board of Governors announced a change in policy in which state universities must now seek approval from the system president before switching conferences. A school’s chancellor must provide advance notice and a financial plan relating to any conference move."
If the P2 calls for North Carolina but not NC State, the legislature will require UNC to pay some sort of subsidy to NC State (maybe even all FBS schools in the state) and UNC will move along to their new league and count their new ducats. No politician will punish both schools to protect the less desirable one and expect to get reelected.
UCF/WVU/Cinci seem like natural fits in a reconstructed ACC. What about the B12 GOR, though? Wouldn't that be a significant issue?
(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ]The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.
What gives you the idea that the ACC will be able to raid the Big 12? If/when FSU leaves they won't be alone. They'll take Clemson, Miami, and some combination of UVA/VT, and UNC/NCST. There will be nothing to draw teams to the ACC from the Big 12. So what you're saying is laughable.
What would the ACC have to offer any school in the Big 12? I could see the argument of trying to poach Cincy, WVU and UCF but at that point we can just pluck schools from the ACC to help satisfy their travel needs.
(03-01-2024 09:44 AM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.
Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.
I think it depends on what happens before this round of realignment ends. Based on previous realignment rounds since 2003, this current round should be ending soon (by 2025). If the ACC loses FSU, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Virginia to the P2, but retains everyone else through 2036 (which is possible since the B1G/SEC are only likely to expand by 2 teams each before the 2026 CFP contract), I could see the B12 losing members to the ACC. Nobody in the B12 would bring the cachet that Clemson and Miami brings and it's possible some of the top brands flee east to consolidate for value.
The B12 has the benefit of going to market before the ACC does, but I think their strength is heavily tied to the ACC's weakness, if that makes sense.
No clue why the B12 would even think about Fresno State, UTSA, Missouri State, and the like now when their best case scenario could include getting NC State, Virginia Tech, Clemson (not a shoe-in for the P2 this round...apparently), and maybe Miami (also not a P2 shoe-in, especially if the B1G gets FSU and ND).
Something like this is Memphis' only hope.
(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ]North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference
That's one way of looking at it.
(03-01-2024 12:22 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote: [ -> ]UCF/WVU/Cinci seem like natural fits in a reconstructed ACC. What about the B12 GOR, though? Wouldn't that be a significant issue?
It won’t be in 2030. By the end of the decade when The ACC escalator kicks in The ACC payout will be considerably more than that of The Big 12.
If you look at the numbers used presently to compare both you’ll see a fixed number for The ACC. The reality is that number increases as the contract ages.
(03-01-2024 10:56 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ]The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.
I don’t think anyone is exactly champing at the bit to leave either of the M2 and pay $100m for a lateral move. The ACC might stick together and only lose a couple schools, but that wouldn’t enable them to raid the Big 12. It would, however, make it unlikely that the big 12 could raid the ACC, and it would help to greatly stabilize the entire P4 for now.
If there's a panic, then the best of the ACC will leave for the Big 12. If they are patient, they aren't likely to lose enough schools to make them non-viable as a Mezzanine Power conference. The Big 12 won't be making enough more to justify traveling across the country. What would make more sense is for them to merge operations but remain two separate conferences and unite in a TV contract when the ACC GOR finally expires.