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Here's the article referenced in this article:

https://frontofficesports.com/cfp-commit...ights-bid/

The tell here came when Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch warned Wall Street that it was “highly unlikely” he’d bid on the NBA against ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery Sports. According to sources, Murdoch and Co. are building a war chest for other rights negotiations. (At the same time, another source vowed that Fox would not overpay for the CFP. The network is counting on ESPN’s newly disciplined approach to rights negotiations.)

This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Yep. Yet more evidence that CFB media rights fees are doing just fine, and that Pac 12 Presidents and terrible negotiators.

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Similar actions helped facilitate ending the PAC

Fox is seemingly preparing to go all-in on college football and MBB.

Is part of that consolidating the best of the Alliance under the BIG brand?

Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I'm not sure the CFP wants to sign an exclusive deal with either FOX or ESPN. I think they will follow the NFL's example and try to share the broadcasts over a wider range of media platforms. I have no idea if that would maximize the revenue to the CFP or not.

(01-04-2024 02:20 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure the CFP wants to sign an exclusive deal with either FOX or ESPN. I think they will follow the NFL's example and try to share the broadcasts over a wider range of media platforms. I have no idea if that would maximize the revenue to the CFP or not.

I agree - and it's a good move, IMO.

(01-04-2024 12:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Yep. Yet more evidence that CFB media rights fees are doing just fine, and that Pac 12 Presidents and terrible negotiators.

I'm going to do my Debbie Downer thing. Who told Front Office Sports that Fox was "building a warchest"? According to sources, Oh sources. Well when have "sources" ever been wrong. And what exactly are the sources claiming? that Fox not chasing the NBA means they're "building a warchest." Is this source in a position to know things, or are they just reading the tea leaves --from an expert position no doubt, but are they Fox insiders?

Folks, Fox ain't got the money. This is not your daddy's Rupert Murdoch Fox network dropping a whopping increase on the table to win the NFC rights.

(At the same time, another source vowed that Fox would not overpay for the CFP. The network is counting on ESPN’s newly disciplined approach to rights negotiations.)

Fox let Thursday Night NFL Football go.

I've been round this mulberry bush already. Thread: Are the OTA networks REALLY going to be competitive bidders for the 12 team CFP?

Source: Me about a year ago:
ESPN seems willing to split the package to manage their costs. But is there a partner willing to pay $200m a game for half the package, without getting a turn at the big enchilada, the National Championship Game?

If not, do we see the sort of "reverse auction" we seem to be seeing with the PAC, where ESPN realizes that they're mostly bidding against themselves?

(01-04-2024 12:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Yep. Yet more evidence that CFB media rights fees are doing just fine, and that Pac 12 Presidents and terrible negotiators.

You just never get tired of being wrong about that whole fiasco, do you?

What was the Pac-12 going to do to negotiate? Ask for 40-50m? ESPN and the rest of the networks werent willing to pay more than 30m per school. Oregon and Washington were never going to sign on for a deal that low. Thats clearly a fact by now. The top brands in the PAC-12 were worth more in other conferences and time zones. Thats the exact scenario playing out with the ACC now.

(01-04-2024 12:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Yep. Yet more evidence that CFB media rights fees are doing just fine, and that Pac 12 Presidents and terrible negotiators.

The Pac, without the LA schools and their market, is a dead conference. Might as well be the MWC.

Didn't preclude them from producing national title contenders (they produced 2 this season) but the value of the conference shrunk and would have gotten much worse had the league stayed together, national title or not.

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

What’s the B1G getting paid on the current contract? Reliable media reports have a 20% spread, from $7b to $8.4b over the life of the contract. What’s the SEC making? Wait, we don’t know that, either. I can’t speak for Vandy or UF, but the B1G has coveted both for a long time. OUT would have joined the B1G in 2021 if that was their plan. And A&M? Clearly, you know nothing about A&M if you think we’d leave the SEC for the B1G, regardless of a minor and theoretical payout boost.

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I think there's something to this. I've always thought certain border SEC schools - Kentucky and Missouri specifically - are vulnerable to B1G poaching. But the B1G could definitely have its sights set on bigger fish in the heart of SEC territory.

As others have noted, we don't know yet exactly what the B1G and SEC payouts will be starting next year. But if the B1G gap is big, it might be tempting to some SEC schools.

I am still not 100% convinced that the IMO poor deals the SEC signed back in 2008 won't end up costing them in that department. We'll see.

(01-05-2024 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I think there's something to this. I've always thought certain border SEC schools - Kentucky and Missouri specifically - are vulnerable to B1G poaching. But the B1G could definitely have its sights set on bigger fish in the heart of SEC territory.

As others have noted, we don't know yet exactly what the B1G and SEC payouts will be starting next year. But if the B1G gap is big, it might be tempting to some SEC schools.

I am still not 100% convinced that the IMO poor deals the SEC signed back in 2008 won't end up costing them in that department. We'll see.

This won't ever happen but if the B1G somehow poached Missouri or Kentucky - I actually think the SEC's AAV would increase.

(01-04-2024 02:46 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 12:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 11:47 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]This is, in part, why Fox opted not to renew its five year, $1 billion deal with WWE despite favorable TV ratings--they are realigning that money into college football.

Yep. Yet more evidence that CFB media rights fees are doing just fine, and that Pac 12 Presidents and terrible negotiators.

Folks, Fox ain't got the money. This is not your daddy's Rupert Murdoch Fox network dropping a whopping increase on the table to win the NFC rights.


Fox let Thursday Night NFL Football go.

Correction, they don’t have the money to go all-in on college football AND chase things like NBA and tertiary NFL rights


Remember when they let Buck and Aikman? Got out of their full deal with USGA.

Fox has been working on moving their cash to college athletics, particularly BIG, for years.

Shanks has given the edict of not losing market share on college football. They’ve been transparent that they’re investing long term in college athletics (mostly through BIG). And unlike ESPN’s lease, Fox essentially has equity

Some just struggle to see the math and the business model. I mean, remember the reaction to the notion USC would go to BIG? Anyone that’s familiar with Fox and Shank’s comments wasn’t. Remember how many thought the PAC would survive?

(01-04-2024 04:05 PM)PicksUp Wrote: [ -> ]... The top brands in the PAC-12 were worth more in other conferences and time zones. ...

That was in part due to the fact that the top brands are worth more playing in games that more people in the ETZ/CTZ 77% of the country, by population, care about.

Quote: That's the exact scenario playing out with the ACC now.

There's some of the same with the ACC, but it's cushioned by being focused on the coast with 47% of the US population rather than the coast with 20%.

(01-05-2024 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I think there's something to this. I've always thought certain border SEC schools - Kentucky and Missouri specifically - are vulnerable to B1G poaching. But the B1G could definitely have its sights set on bigger fish in the heart of SEC territory.

As others have noted, we don't know yet exactly what the B1G and SEC payouts will be starting next year. But if the B1G gap is big, it might be tempting to some SEC schools.

I am still not 100% convinced that the IMO poor deals the SEC signed back in 2008 won't end up costing them in that department. We'll see.

Media revenue is but one reported line in Gross Total Revenue. If the Big 10 earns 15 million more per school than the SEC schools make for media revenue the Big 10 will finally earn what the SEC is currently making. Last year the SEC schools averaged total revenue in excess of 5 million per school more than the Big 10 and they were in their new contract.

The SEC minus its paltry CBS salary of nearly 60 million last year, Still earned over 775 million. So, let's say the rest of the SEC contract, "it's old contracts" paid 715 million. When you add the new T1 contract to it (307 million was the CBS offer rejected and ESPN paid more) their new contract will be North of a Billion a year. The Big 10's high figure was 1.1 billion and then the confusion over picks set in and then a downward revision. Then Oregon and Washington were added at reduced shares. So, the SEC will be a little North of a Billion a year and the Big 10 will be a little shy of 1.1 Billion. So, for 18 teams it sounds to me like the SEC gained ground on the 5.5-million-dollar advantage in total revenue.

I'm patient, so when the numbers come out if I'm ballpark correct in my calculations you'll hear about this again.

(01-05-2024 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I think there's something to this. I've always thought certain border SEC schools - Kentucky and Missouri specifically - are vulnerable to B1G poaching. But the B1G could definitely have its sights set on bigger fish in the heart of SEC territory.

As others have noted, we don't know yet exactly what the B1G and SEC payouts will be starting next year. But if the B1G gap is big, it might be tempting to some SEC schools.

I am still not 100% convinced that the IMO poor deals the SEC signed back in 2008 won't end up costing them in that department. We'll see.

I don't know about Missouri, but Kentucky may border the Big 10 but there is no path to the Big 10. UK is an original, core SEC school with fans that are 100% in on the SEC. Huge rivarlies with Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, LSU even if they don't win in football much. Even if the Big 10 somehow offerred significantly more $$, UK would not leave the SEC unless several other core SEC schools were leaving (Tennessee, Florida at least). There is a huge cultural change once you get 25 miles south of the Ohio River - Cincinnati colonized about 25 miles into Kentucky then it is the South.

It’s good to hear ESPN is still willing to pay big bucks for college football. I don’t want Fox to have it all.

(01-06-2024 02:03 PM)Section 200 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-05-2024 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-04-2024 02:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Big 10 may not be done in expanding into tv markets. Big 12, SEC and ACC could lose who the Big 10 wants. Arizona, Arizona State, Calford, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulane, Vanderbilt, FSU, Florida, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh and maybe Buffalo and Stony Brook in the future?

ESPN may not have the money to upped the SEC, but Fox may upped the rights for the Big 10 where the money is hard to ignore for SEC schools to not bite.

I think there's something to this. I've always thought certain border SEC schools - Kentucky and Missouri specifically - are vulnerable to B1G poaching. But the B1G could definitely have its sights set on bigger fish in the heart of SEC territory.

As others have noted, we don't know yet exactly what the B1G and SEC payouts will be starting next year. But if the B1G gap is big, it might be tempting to some SEC schools.

I am still not 100% convinced that the IMO poor deals the SEC signed back in 2008 won't end up costing them in that department. We'll see.

I don't know about Missouri, but Kentucky may border the Big 10 but there is no path to the Big 10. UK is an original, core SEC school with fans that are 100% in on the SEC. Huge rivarlies with Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, LSU even if they don't win in football much. Even if the Big 10 somehow offerred significantly more $$, UK would not leave the SEC unless several other core SEC schools were leaving (Tennessee, Florida at least). There is a huge cultural change once you get 25 miles south of the Ohio River - Cincinnati colonized about 25 miles into Kentucky then it is the South.

Yeah. If the UK president proposed leaving the SEC for the Big 10, he might find himself getting dumped into the Ohio River with a life vest and told not to come back across.