Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
I don't see Gonzaga (Olympic sports) to the Big 12 in my crystal ball. Right now Gonzaga is at their peak in terms of national brand recognition. Flirting with the Big 12 only makes them look better and get more when they ask the West Coast for favors later (example: Gonzaga hosts the WCC tournament).
I also don't see any of the new Big XII additions wanting their first few years in the Big XII spoiled by multiple losses to "a small school" that the Big XII rescued at their expense (recruiting losses and extra game losses). Relatedly, no power conference or fringe power conference has ever expanded for basketball outside of Wichita State to the American (AAC). And how did that move work out for both parties?
But here's what I do see in my crystal ball as far as the next realignment moves...
Before July 1, 2024, UMass joins the MAC in football only.
Before July 1, 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Mountain West reach an agreement that all members of the Mountain West will join the Pac-14 in 2025.
Before July 1, 2024, Delaware announces its intentions to join FBS via the MAC (football only). If the NCAA ever smartly waives the "James Madison" rule, you can lock this move in.
Before July 1, 2025, Gonzaga joins the Mountain West in Olympic sports.
Before July 1, 2026, Connecticut (Olympic sports) and Western Kentucky (all sports) join the MAC. Connecticut will ultimately want the ease of filling out a football schedule and the outside shot at making the playoffs in hopes that hitting that shot once or twice somehow gets them into a post-apocalyptic ACC.
Before July 1, 2026, C*USA officially brings back the "star" or hyphen in its name and inexplicably adds another FCS nobody saw coming. My guess? North Carolina A&T. Why not?
Beyond that...
I have written a lot about the future in this post and I feel like I am approaching "Manifesto" territory. I don't want to join the Unibomber and Connor Stallions as Michigan Men who wrote manifestos so I will stop here.
(10-29-2023 01:30 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see Gonzaga (Olympic sports) to the Big 12 in my crystal ball. Right now Gonzaga is at their peak in terms of national brand recognition. Flirting with the Big 12 only makes them look better and get more when they ask the West Coast for favors later (example: Gonzaga hosts the WCC tournament).
I also don't see any of the new Big XII additions wanting their first few years in the Big XII spoiled by multiple losses to "a small school" that the Big XII rescued at their expense (recruiting losses and extra game losses). Relatedly, no power conference or fringe power conference has ever expanded for basketball outside of Wichita State to the American (AAC). And how did that move work out for both parties?
But here's what I do see in my crystal ball as far as the next realignment moves...
Before July 1, 2024, UMass joins the MAC in football only.
Before July 1, 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Mountain West reach an agreement that all members of the Mountain West will join the Pac-14 in 2025.
Before July 1, 2024, Delaware announces its intentions to join FBS via the MAC (football only).
Before July 1, 2025, Gonzaga joins the Mountain West in Olympic sports.
Before July 1, 2026, Connecticut (Olympic sports) and Western Kentucky (all sports) join the MAC. Connecticut will ultimately want the ease of filling out a football schedule and the outside shot at making the playoffs in hopes that hitting that once or twice somehow gets them into a post-apocalyptic ACC.
Before July 1, 2026, C*USA officially brings back the "star" or hyphen in its name and inexplicably adds another FCS nobody saw coming. My guess? North Carolina A&T. Why not?
Beyond that...
I have written a lot about the future in this post and I feel like I am approaching "Manifesto" territory. I don't want to join the Unibomber and Connor Stallions as Michigan Men who wrote manifestos so I will stop here.
Would not be disappointed Sparty Baby 84.
But what about this mention of UMass unifying sports and speculation about CUSA. We will finally be leaving the A10 whether it's CUSA or the MAC.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
AAC adds Army for the 2025 season...
> gets back to 14...
>>(12 Full + 2 FB Only (Army/Navy) + 1 Non-FB (Wichita St.)...
PAC
> Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members...
> Enters scheduling alliance with MWC a la MWC/CUSA Alliance...
> Reverse Merges with MWC...
> PAC invites all 12 from MWC...
> Hawaii (FB Only)...
> PAC invites Gonzaga (Non-FB)
> Gets to (14/14) membership...
IF SBC loses one...down to 13 members THEN
> Adds from FCS/UAC/CUSA to get back to 14.
> SBC still won't invite ex-SBC members back...
IF CUSA loses one...down to 9 members THEN
> Adds from FCS/UAC to get back to 10...
IF WCC loses Gonzaga...down to 8 members THEN
> WCC adds Cal Baptist, Seattle, & GCU...
> WCC goes to 11...
IF WAC loses Cal Baptist, Seattle, & GCU THEN
> WAC down to 8 members...stand pat...
>> UVU & UTA Non-FB remaining members...
>> UTRGV FB (2025)
> WAC looks FB playing members as replacements...
(10-29-2023 01:30 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see Gonzaga (Olympic sports) to the Big 12 in my crystal ball. Right now Gonzaga is at their peak in terms of national brand recognition. Flirting with the Big 12 only makes them look better and get more when they ask the West Coast for favors later (example: Gonzaga hosts the WCC tournament).
I also don't see any of the new Big XII additions wanting their first few years in the Big XII spoiled by multiple losses to "a small school" that the Big XII rescued at their expense (recruiting losses and extra game losses). Relatedly, no power conference or fringe power conference has ever expanded for basketball outside of Wichita State to the American (AAC). And how did that move work out for both parties?
But here's what I do see in my crystal ball as far as the next realignment moves...
Before July 1, 2024, UMass joins the MAC in football only.
Before July 1, 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Mountain West reach an agreement that all members of the Mountain West will join the Pac-14 in 2025.
Before July 1, 2024, Delaware announces its intentions to join FBS via the MAC (football only). If the NCAA ever smartly waives the "James Madison" rule, you can lock this move in.
Before July 1, 2025, Gonzaga joins the Mountain West in Olympic sports.
Before July 1, 2026, Connecticut (Olympic sports) and Western Kentucky (all sports) join the MAC. Connecticut will ultimately want the ease of filling out a football schedule and the outside shot at making the playoffs in hopes that hitting that shot once or twice somehow gets them into a post-apocalyptic ACC.
Before July 1, 2026, C*USA officially brings back the "star" or hyphen in its name and inexplicably adds another FCS nobody saw coming. My guess? North Carolina A&T. Why not?
Beyond that...
I have written a lot about the future in this post and I feel like I am approaching "Manifesto" territory. I don't want to join the Unibomber and Connor Stallions as Michigan Men who wrote manifestos so I will stop here.
(10-29-2023 01:30 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see Gonzaga (Olympic sports) to the Big 12 in my crystal ball. Right now Gonzaga is at their peak in terms of national brand recognition. Flirting with the Big 12 only makes them look better and get more when they ask the West Coast for favors later (example: Gonzaga hosts the WCC tournament).
I also don't see any of the new Big XII additions wanting their first few years in the Big XII spoiled by multiple losses to "a small school" that the Big XII rescued at their expense (recruiting losses and extra game losses). Relatedly, no power conference or fringe power conference has ever expanded for basketball outside of Wichita State to the American (AAC). And how did that move work out for both parties?
But here's what I do see in my crystal ball as far as the next realignment moves...
Before July 1, 2024, UMass joins the MAC in football only.
Before July 1, 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Mountain West reach an agreement that all members of the Mountain West will join the Pac-14 in 2025.
Before July 1, 2024, Delaware announces its intentions to join FBS via the MAC (football only). If the NCAA ever smartly waives the "James Madison" rule, you can lock this move in.
Before July 1, 2025, Gonzaga joins the Mountain West in Olympic sports.
Before July 1, 2026, Connecticut (Olympic sports) and Western Kentucky (all sports) join the MAC. Connecticut will ultimately want the ease of filling out a football schedule and the outside shot at making the playoffs in hopes that hitting that shot once or twice somehow gets them into a post-apocalyptic ACC.
Before July 1, 2026, C*USA officially brings back the "star" or hyphen in its name and inexplicably adds another FCS nobody saw coming. My guess? North Carolina A&T. Why not?
Beyond that...
I have written a lot about the future in this post and I feel like I am approaching "Manifesto" territory. I don't want to join the Unibomber and Connor Stallions as Michigan Men who wrote manifestos so I will stop here.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
I don't foresee the Big 12 being interested in UConn for all sports but football. However, if it were, UConn must might be interested if 1. the move made financial sense; and 2. the Big 12 offered UConn football a scheduling agreement like the ACC does Notre Dame.
UConn saw rejoining the Big East as a "stepping stone" toward eventual membership in an all-sports power league. It might see a similar membership in the Big 12 (but with the football scheduling arrangement) as that "next step."
But my gut feeling is that UConn would prefer its current Big East membership to a Big 12 membership without football. As somebody (I recall it was GoldenWarrior) noted, UConn will have to pay a rather hefty exit fee if it ever leaves the Big East. So the next UConn league home needs to be strong.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
Oral Robert would stick out like a sore thumb for the WAC. Bring in a carrot for them to jump and invite Central Oklahoma from D2 as well. They have blueprints to expand their stadium to 20,000.
I could see other moves as well.
VCU, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, Villanova, Georgetown, Vermont, Delaware, Chattanooga, Tennessee State, Towson, Stony Brook, Youngstown State, UCA, NDSU, South Dakota State, Saint Mary's, Loyola-Marymount, Loyola-Chicago, College of Charleston, etc. may get invited to any of the FBS conferences. I could see the Big East get picked apart by the Big 12 and the ACC for the bigger men's basketball money.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
Oral Robert would stick out like a sore thumb for the WAC. Bring in a carrot for them to jump and invite Central Oklahoma from D2 as well. They have blueprints to expand their stadium to 20,000.
I could see other moves as well.
VCU, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, Villanova, Georgetown, Vermont, Delaware, Chattanooga, Tennessee State, Towson, Stony Brook, Youngstown State, UCA, NDSU, South Dakota State, Saint Mary's, Loyola-Marymount, Loyola-Chicago, College of Charleston, etc. may get invited to any of the FBS conferences. I could see the Big East get picked apart by the Big 12 and the ACC for the bigger men's basketball money.
I honestly don't see any of that happening. The trend has been away from hybrid conferences, not toward them.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Augustana are not desperate at the moment. They will be focusing a lot of attention on their hockey program for the next two years. After that we'll see. St Cloud State do not have a lot of money. It's part of the reason they dropped their dropped their football program and the financial situation hasn't changed. I think there is exactly a 0% chance they could even consider a move up to D1.
Oral Roberts does not want to go to the WAC as much as they complain about the Summit unless the WAC's geography changes.
(10-29-2023 12:58 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]Two dominoes have fallen this week, but many more are to come.
The first domino will be Gonzaga to the Big 12. I expect this move to happen in the next month. Yormark is trying to de-couple basketball from football in the next media rights deal for the Big 12 and adding Gonzaga adds considerable value to a basketball contract. The Zags make the move as the only other power conference potentially interested (the Big East) is too far away.
Yormark then sets his sights on UConn again, but only offers an Olympic sports membership, which UConn turns down.
With Gonzaga out of the picture, the WCC is down to 8 members. Although the final candidates for expansion are Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Cal Baptist, the league ultimately decides to add just Grand Canyon to go back to 9 members. Grand Canyon has the largest fanbase and budget of the three.
With the departure of Grand Canyon, the WAC is now down to 10 teams and minus arguably their biggest basketball brand. The league sees an opportunity and invites Oral Roberts to become the 11th member. Oral Roberts accepts as the WAC is a significantly better basketball league than the Summit, and they get to play a lot of games in Texas.
The Summit is now down to 8 members. Although Augustana (D2) is begging to get in, the league ultimately goes another direction: adding non-football St. Cloud State, a Division 2 Minnesota school.
Shifting westward, the Mountain West/OSU/WSU saga is going to come to an end shortly. I believe the Pac-2 win their legal case against the departing Pac-12 members, go independent with a heavy MW schedule in football for the next two season, and join the MW for Olympic sports in the 24/25 school year.
Now down to just 7 members (2 of them transitional), the NEC is in dire straits. The only way to guarantee they don't need a waiver in a few years is to add an existing full Division 1 members. No MEAC schools raise their hands. That leaves one university: Chicago State. The NEC invites Chicago State and also Bentley, a Division 2 institution, to get to 9 members.
Toward the end of the school year (after March Madness), the Atlantic 10 will invite College of Charleston. This gets the league up to 16 members.
The CAA responds by adding Fairfield.
These moves leave Division 1 with 365 members, 31 conferences, 134 FBS members, 130 FCS members, 9 FBS conferences, and 13 FCS conferences.
Oral Robert would stick out like a sore thumb for the WAC. Bring in a carrot for them to jump and invite Central Oklahoma from D2 as well. They have blueprints to expand their stadium to 20,000.
I could see other moves as well.
VCU, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, Villanova, Georgetown, Vermont, Delaware, Chattanooga, Tennessee State, Towson, Stony Brook, Youngstown State, UCA, NDSU, South Dakota State, Saint Mary's, Loyola-Marymount, Loyola-Chicago, College of Charleston, etc. may get invited to any of the FBS conferences. I could see the Big East get picked apart by the Big 12 and the ACC for the bigger men's basketball money.
I honestly don't see any of that happening. The trend has been away from hybrid conferences, not toward them.
(10-29-2023 05:56 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]...2. the Big 12 offered UConn football a scheduling agreement like the ACC does Notre Dame.
When heck freezes over. They ain't ND.
At this point, my hazy UConn crystal ball says they stay put in the BE until the PAC-like ACCboom. Then UConn most likely joins the leftbehinds in the nACC (after the B1G and SEC raids, and Big XII then taking their fill from the rest) {or the ACC leftbehinds join the BE if the ACC is dissolved}, or decides to stay in the BE with independent FB. Or stay in the BE, and FB-only in the nACC.
But if the Big XII's eastern division comes up one school short, UConn could still get/make a full-member offer. If they keep working on their FB, and their M+W BB stays strong, that is.
(10-29-2023 05:56 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]...2. the Big 12 offered UConn football a scheduling agreement like the ACC does Notre Dame.
When heck freezes over. They ain't ND.
At this point, my hazy UConn crystal ball says they stay put in the BE until the PAC-like ACCboom. Then UConn most likely joins the leftbehinds in the nACC (after the B1G and SEC raids, and Big XII then taking their fill from the rest) {or the ACC leftbehinds join the BE if the ACC is dissolved}, or decides to stay in the BE with independent FB. Or stay in the BE, and FB-only in the nACC.
But if the Big XII's eastern division comes up one school short, UConn could still get/make a full-member offer. If they keep working on their FB, and their M+W BB stays strong, that is.
The ACC would have been doing itself a favor by inviting UCONN when it added SMU and CalFord. UConn basketball has won its 2nd natty since the ACC left them out and the ACC has gradually gotten worse in basketball. Adding those 3 certainly didn't help the schedule strength in basketball (or football for that matter), it was only about $$. At least adding UConn would have some competitive advantage to the add....and the ACC would get pro rata for it. Failure at the ACC conference office for letting BC dictate this....then and now.
(10-29-2023 05:56 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]...2. the Big 12 offered UConn football a scheduling agreement like the ACC does Notre Dame.
When heck freezes over. They ain't ND.
At this point, my hazy UConn crystal ball says they stay put in the BE until the PAC-like ACCboom. Then UConn most likely joins the leftbehinds in the nACC (after the B1G and SEC raids, and Big XII then taking their fill from the rest) {or the ACC leftbehinds join the BE if the ACC is dissolved}, or decides to stay in the BE with independent FB. Or stay in the BE, and FB-only in the nACC.
But if the Big XII's eastern division comes up one school short, UConn could still get/make a full-member offer. If they keep working on their FB, and their M+W BB stays strong, that is.
Quit trying to make Grand Canyon to the WCC happen. They'll take a Baptist school over a diploma mill for profit like GCU. Cal Baptist would be the next team to move up.
I think Gonzaga will join the Pac 14 rather than the Big 12. The WCC might go to 11 with the WAC leftovers, but I'm still not sure on GCU. I'm sure they would love getting into the Phoenix market, but GCU's history as a for-profit may be a bridge too far.
I do think Chicago State to the NEC might be a marriage of convenience, but the NEC will still be in grace period territory even with them as it has fewer than seven active members of Division I. The NEC finally breaks up in 2026.
(10-30-2023 07:26 PM)chargeradio Wrote: [ -> ]I think Gonzaga will join the Pac 14 rather than the Big 12. The WCC might go to 11 with the WAC leftovers, but I'm still not sure on GCU. I'm sure they would love getting into the Phoenix market, but GCU's history as a for-profit may be a bridge too far.
I do think Chicago State to the NEC might be a marriage of convenience, but the NEC will still be in grace period territory even with them as it has fewer than seven active members of Division I. The NEC finally breaks up in 2026.
(10-29-2023 01:30 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see Gonzaga (Olympic sports) to the Big 12 in my crystal ball. Right now Gonzaga is at their peak in terms of national brand recognition. Flirting with the Big 12 only makes them look better and get more when they ask the West Coast for favors later (example: Gonzaga hosts the WCC tournament).
I also don't see any of the new Big XII additions wanting their first few years in the Big XII spoiled by multiple losses to "a small school" that the Big XII rescued at their expense (recruiting losses and extra game losses). Relatedly, no power conference or fringe power conference has ever expanded for basketball outside of Wichita State to the American (AAC). And how did that move work out for both parties?
But here's what I do see in my crystal ball as far as the next realignment moves...
Before July 1, 2024, UMass joins the MAC in football only.
Before July 1, 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Mountain West reach an agreement that all members of the Mountain West will join the Pac-14 in 2025.
Before July 1, 2024, Delaware announces its intentions to join FBS via the MAC (football only). If the NCAA ever smartly waives the "James Madison" rule, you can lock this move in.
Before July 1, 2025, Gonzaga joins the Mountain West in Olympic sports.
Before July 1, 2026, Connecticut (Olympic sports) and Western Kentucky (all sports) join the MAC. Connecticut will ultimately want the ease of filling out a football schedule and the outside shot at making the playoffs in hopes that hitting that shot once or twice somehow gets them into a post-apocalyptic ACC.
Before July 1, 2026, C*USA officially brings back the "star" or hyphen in its name and inexplicably adds another FCS nobody saw coming. My guess? North Carolina A&T. Why not?
Beyond that...
I have written a lot about the future in this post and I feel like I am approaching "Manifesto" territory. I don't want to join the Unibomber and Connor Stallions as Michigan Men who wrote manifestos so I will stop here.
LIKE
MAC + UMass (FB Only).
MAC + Delaware (FB Only)
*Delaware FCS ===> FBS via the MAC
>MAC + UConn (FB Only).