I know these schools don't seemingly add any value to the payouts, but there would be travel partners for Cal and Stanford. The ACC could go to a pod system to alleviate travel expenses.
Pod 1
Stanford
Cal
Washington St.
Oregon St.
SMU
Pod 2
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse
Virginia
Pod 3
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
NC State
Wake Forest
Duke
Pod 4
Clemson
Miami
North Carolina
Florida State
South Florida
There is no pressing need to expand at this time. The next expansion cycle will be in 5-6 years. When the BIG, SEC, BigXII reach their next media contract renegotiation. What the ACC will do will be slightly in reaction to how Fox and ESPN manage those three conferences.
It is likely that the ACC will react in the following ways,
1. Replenishment if teams leave likely targets USF, UCF, Uconn, tulane, Cincinnati
2. Westward Expansion KU, UAz, AzSU, Utah, TCU/Baylor
The main goal is too keep the ACCN profitable on paid linear programming (Cable, or streaming) and desirable for major DMA local affiliate OTA programming.
(09-08-2023 07:54 AM)AeroWolf Wrote: [ -> ]There is no pressing need to expand at this time. The next expansion cycle will be in 5-6 years. When the BIG, SEC, BigXII reach their next media contract renegotiation. What the ACC will do will be slightly in reaction to how Fox and ESPN manage those three conferences.
It is likely that the ACC will react in the following ways,
1. Replenishment if teams leave likely targets USF, UCF, Uconn, tulane, Cincinnati
2. Westward Expansion KU, UAz, AzSU, Utah, TCU/Baylor
The main goal is too keep the ACCN profitable on paid linear programming (Cable, or streaming) and desirable for major DMA local affiliate OTA programming.
I just can't see Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, and Baylor ever wanting to be in the ACC. Utah I can see to maybe to get away from BYU and be associated with the academic schools. The Bearcats might bite, UCF might, and USF/Tulane are easy adds. UConn has political obstacles with certain ACC schools that pose some problems for them.
(09-08-2023 08:07 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ] (09-08-2023 07:54 AM)AeroWolf Wrote: [ -> ]There is no pressing need to expand at this time. The next expansion cycle will be in 5-6 years. When the BIG, SEC, BigXII reach their next media contract renegotiation. What the ACC will do will be slightly in reaction to how Fox and ESPN manage those three conferences.
It is likely that the ACC will react in the following ways,
1. Replenishment if teams leave likely targets USF, UCF, Uconn, tulane, Cincinnati
2. Westward Expansion KU, UAz, AzSU, Utah, TCU/Baylor
The main goal is too keep the ACCN profitable on paid linear programming (Cable, or streaming) and desirable for major DMA local affiliate OTA programming.
I just can't see Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, and Baylor ever wanting to be in the ACC. Utah I can see to maybe to get away from BYU and be associated with the academic schools. The Bearcats might bite, UCF might, and USF/Tulane are easy adds. UConn has political obstacles with certain ACC schools that pose some problems for them.
Again, ACC will be reacting to how Fox and ESPN manages the SEC and BIG. Now that the ACC is national, I can see ESPN cutting back how much they pay for Big12 inventory, especially if Fox/ESPN entices the BIG/SEC to raid that conference one last time for let's say Kansas and Colorado (Assuming Prime resurrects them). Either way, I can see schools wanting to jump ship to the final 6 years of the ACC contract if it provides more money and visibility compared to a likely less valuable Big12 media contract.
Actual school targets will be based on an objective function state population (number of new TV households and fan devotion), desirability of local recruiting area, and cultural fit.
I agree that UCONN has likely burned its bridges with the ACC, but they may be desirable for backfill if schools leave. Actual moves will be based on whose available and likely close to major/destination cities.
Tulane in Nola
Utah in SLC
Colorado near Denver
AzSU in Phoenix
Kansas near KC
USF in Tampa
UCF near Orlando
OrSU near Portland
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston
There's no reason to do anything. We're already at 18 teams. It's unlikely that there's anyone out there interested in joining the ACC who could actually help us.
Consider this scenario for what may happen before the ACC GOR expires:
1) ESPN goes bankrupt. The ACC has to improvise new TV arrangements on the fly.
2) The value of broadcast rights for college sports goes way down.
3) With TV money far lower, some members in every conference start wondering what the point is of being in a spread out conference to which they feel only a limited attachment.
How likely is this scenario? Who knows? My opinion is that it's a lot more likely than ever expanding TV money for college conferences, though. The party is rapidly winding down. Congrats to the conferences which were able to negotiate big contracts in favorable circumstances but be careful. The company that you signed a contract with may not survive. At best, you'll soon have to negotiate new contracts and you'll have limited bargaining power.
In an unfavorable media rights environment, more conference members equals more problems.
I’d like to think that someday when sensibleness returns, the Pac will reform. It could be in the form of a western division of the ACC with 6-8 members. This could be Stan, Cal, UO, UW, UU, USC, UCLA, basically the old Pac minus the fat. The new ACC could be a 24 member conference with 3 divisions with autonomy in the matters of crowning a division champ, money distribution and inter division scheduling.
Ideally, SMU wouid be with the eastern group, but could slide over to the west if need be. I wouid not mind FSU being in the same division with SMU and/or Tulane.
(09-08-2023 07:54 AM)AeroWolf Wrote: [ -> ]There is no pressing need to expand at this time. The next expansion cycle will be in 5-6 years. When the BIG, SEC, BigXII reach their next media contract renegotiation. What the ACC will do will be slightly in reaction to how Fox and ESPN manage those three conferences.
It is likely that the ACC will react in the following ways,
1. Replenishment if teams leave likely targets USF, UCF, Uconn, tulane, Cincinnati
2. Westward Expansion KU, UAz, AzSU, Utah, TCU/Baylor
The main goal is too keep the ACCN profitable on paid linear programming (Cable, or streaming) and desirable for major DMA local affiliate OTA programming.
I agree that we don't need to expand now and the ACC will react to the market conditions.
Another big issue is whether and when FSU decides to leave the conference. If FSU and another school decides to leave within the next six years (and I don't think more than two schools would leave before 2036), that would trigger the ACC to react and expand.
If there are no B12 candidates available in 2030-2031, then maybe.... OSU and WSU do bring new states and WSU brought good ratings during the Mike Leach era. And USF is a go if FSU leaves. But I think B12 teams will be an option some of which are geographically compatible.
(09-08-2023 10:07 AM)Hallcity Wrote: [ -> ]There's no reason to do anything. We're already at 18 teams. It's unlikely that there's anyone out there interested in joining the ACC who could actually help us.
Consider this scenario for what may happen before the ACC GOR expires:
1) ESPN goes bankrupt. The ACC has to improvise new TV arrangements on the fly.
2) The value of broadcast rights for college sports goes way down.
3) With TV money far lower, some members in every conference start wondering what the point is of being in a spread out conference to which they feel only a limited attachment.
How likely is this scenario? Who knows? My opinion is that it's a lot more likely than ever expanding TV money for college conferences, though. The party is rapidly winding down. Congrats to the conferences which were able to negotiate big contracts in favorable circumstances but be careful. The company that you signed a contract with may not survive. At best, you'll soon have to negotiate new contracts and you'll have limited bargaining power.
In an unfavorable media rights environment, more conference members equals more problems.
ESPN is owned by Disney. Disney is extremely unlikely to 'go bankrupt' before 2036. If ESPN gets into trouble, Disney gets new financing for it or sells it to another company. In any event, someone's going to be supplying the public with media entertainment.
The name IBM was once synonymous with computers. IBM faded. Computers didn't.
Today's 'conferences' will stay large and continue evolving into 'leagues' (in the NFL sense). Large entities are needed to replace the NCAA, to negotiate media contracts and player contracts, and to handle all the new challenges coming up: revenue sharing, NIL standards, playoffs, collective bargaining, athlete health care. Within these large leagues, smaller 'conferences' and 'divisions' (in the NFL sense) can be formed to address concerns of geography.
(09-08-2023 12:47 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]If there are no B12 candidates available in 2030-2031, then maybe.... OSU and WSU do bring new states and WSU brought good ratings during the Mike Leach era. And USF is a go if FSU leaves. But I think B12 teams will be an option some of which are geographically compatible.
ACC needs to keep a close eye on USF if any inkling of Big 12 or B1G (AAU) moving in on them . ACC would do well to invite USF now . I think only FSU would be a No vote for 18
(09-09-2023 10:19 AM)CardFan1 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-08-2023 12:47 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]If there are no B12 candidates available in 2030-2031, then maybe.... OSU and WSU do bring new states and WSU brought good ratings during the Mike Leach era. And USF is a go if FSU leaves. But I think B12 teams will be an option some of which are geographically compatible.
ACC needs to keep a close eye on USF if any inkling of Big 12 or B1G (AAU) moving in on them . ACC would do well to invite USF now . I think only FSU would be a No vote for 18
^^^ THIS ^^^
I'm good with Oregon State and Washington State to help out travel for Cal and Stanford.
I'd rather have San Diego State than USF (SDSU needs better investment in football program after getting new stadium), but they seem redundant with two California schools already in the conference.
But I agree with others that nothing should happen until 2030 unless we lose some schools before then. There may be very attractive Big 12 schools to poach then.
(09-09-2023 12:53 PM)MegaCard Wrote: [ -> ]I'm good with Oregon State and Washington State to help out travel for Cal and Stanford.
I'd rather have San Diego State than USF (SDSU needs better investment in football program after getting new stadium), but they seem redundant with two California schools already in the conference.
But I agree with others that nothing should happen until 2030 unless we lose some schools before then. There may be very attractive Big 12 schools to poach then.
There might be after the next contracts but it also could mean if ESPN, Fox reduce payouts, They also might not pay to add anyone to another conference. That is a very strong possibility
I read somewhere that Oregon State and Washington State are trying to get invites to either the Big 12 or the ACC after their court cases are finalized and they know if they are keeping the Pac 12 monies. Anyone else hearing rumors on this? I still firmly believe the ACC needs to grab these two now before any defections happen.
Oregon State and Washington State......NO!
USF and Tulane should be kept on speed dial.
Look for the Big Ten to expand with Big XII schools and subsidize their current membership with the extra money to existing membership at the end of the decade. I can see two of KU, Arizona State, and Colorado being options for them to pay a half share until 2036 when they will load up for FSU. Face it, FOX isn't going to empty the vault for what it takes to get FSU early.
The conference could be up to 30 members and some of you would still be calling for expansion!
(10-18-2023 08:09 AM)Hallcity Wrote: [ -> ]The conference could be up to 30 members and some of you would still be calling for expansion!
It sure would be nice to have two more top 25 football programs in the fold for when FSU and UNC get the call up to the SEC. Just saying.....
(09-08-2023 08:07 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote: [ -> ] (09-08-2023 07:54 AM)AeroWolf Wrote: [ -> ]There is no pressing need to expand at this time. The next expansion cycle will be in 5-6 years. When the BIG, SEC, BigXII reach their next media contract renegotiation. What the ACC will do will be slightly in reaction to how Fox and ESPN manage those three conferences.
It is likely that the ACC will react in the following ways,
1. Replenishment if teams leave likely targets USF, UCF, Uconn, tulane, Cincinnati
2. Westward Expansion KU, UAz, AzSU, Utah, TCU/Baylor
The main goal is too keep the ACCN profitable on paid linear programming (Cable, or streaming) and desirable for major DMA local affiliate OTA programming.
I just can't see Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, and Baylor ever wanting to be in the ACC. Utah I can see to maybe to get away from BYU and be associated with the academic schools. The Bearcats might bite, UCF might, and USF/Tulane are easy adds. UConn has political obstacles with certain ACC schools that pose some problems for them.
The only universe where UCONN gets into the ACC is when the ACC is so heavily raided it becomes unironically the old Big East or when ESPN is willing to wildly overpay the ACC to add UCONN.
I feel like there is no long future with west coast teams. Stanford and Cal was a too good to be true flash sale, but if one or both move on, you are then stuck with the 2 least desirable former Pac12 schools. You would have to cut them off, I don’t see any other way to make it work. In the mean time, if they are added, it wouid give Stan and Cal travel partners and former conference foes.
SMU would still be safe.