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2022 P5 wins:

App State W vs TAMU
GaSo W vs Nebraska
Marshall W vs Notre Dame
ODU W vs Va Tech


The SBC will have ample opportunities in 2023 for P5 upsets. How many P5 wins do you predict we'll have in 2023?

Sept 2
Arkansas State at Oklahoma
Texas State at Baylor
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina at UCLA

Sept 9
James Madison at Virginia
Troy at Kansas State
Appalachian State at North Carolina
Southern Miss at Florida State

Sept 16
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin
Wake Forest at Old Dominion
ULM at Texas A&M
South Alabama at Oklahoma State

Sept 23
Virginia Tech at Marshall

Sept 30
Louisiana at Minnesota

Oct 7
Marshall at NC State

Nov 18
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Georgia State at LSU
ULM at Ole Miss

Things that jump out to me -
only 2 are home games (Va Tech at Marshall and Wake Forest at ODU).
4 teams with multiple p5 games on the schedule: ULM(2), ODU(2), Marshall(2), USM(2).

6 out of 18 would probably be a pretty great achievement. 8 out of 18 would be icing on the cake. Since RG3 and Bryce Petty left Baylor it seems any given season you never know what you are getting when you play Baylor. You could get the bad Baylor that lost to a bad UTSA or you could get the 2019 or 2021 Baylor

Let's drink me some kool-aid


Arkansas State at Oklahoma L
Texas State at Baylor toss up
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech L
Coastal Carolina at UCLA W
James Madison at Virginia W
Troy at 18 Kansas State W
Appalachian State at 21 North Carolina L
Southern Miss at 3 Florida State L
Georgia Southern at 25 Wisconsin W
Wake Forest at Old Dominion W
ULM at Texas A&M L
South Alabama at Oklahoma State W
Virginia Tech at Marshall W
Louisiana at Minnesota L
Marshall at NC State L
Southern Miss at Mississippi State W
Georgia State at 7 LSU L
ULM at 22 Ole Miss L

definitely taking the over on this one!

Decent odds in bold. I don't know the spreads yet but I'm going to bold who I think will cover whatever I think the spread will be.

Sept 2
Arkansas State at Oklahoma
Texas State at Baylor
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina at UCLA

Sept 9
James Madison at Virginia
Troy at Kansas State
Appalachian State at North Carolina
Southern Miss at Florida State

Sept 16
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin - This one is tricky considering Luke Fickell is installing the Air Raid. Could be a 63 - 56 type of game
Wake Forest at Old Dominion - Again, tricky, how does Wake Forest respond without Sam Hartman?
ULM at Texas A&M - ULM covers, Jimbo is garbage
South Alabama at Oklahoma State

Sept 23
Virginia Tech at Marshall

Sept 30
Louisiana at Minnesota

Oct 7
Marshall at NC State

Nov 18
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Georgia State at LSU - Georgia State is going to develop a reputation among SEC schools. Late season game too.
ULM at Ole Miss

Here's the Sun Belt vs. P5 spreads for 2023 calculated with SP+ and FPI. Both predict about 3 P5 wins.

They have the Sun Belt's average rank in the 90s and recent history shows that it being in the 80s is more realistic, so that's probably an under-estimation.

Just don't get your hopes up too high. Getting 3 wins again would be fine and 4 would be outstanding.

I feel like P5 wins are starting to feel overrated. Still nice to get, but not very surprising these days. There's sort of an expectation at this point.

In just the last 5 years, the SBC schools have 15 wins vs. the P5. We have 5 wins against ranked P5 schools (#6 Texas A&M, #8 Notre Dame, #13 BYU, #13 Virginia Tech, #23 Iowa State).

On top of that, we're 6-6 against the Big 12 in that same span.

We'll get 6 this year. I'll bet anyone who posts their Venmo

(08-01-2023 12:44 PM)ericsaid Wrote: [ -> ]Decent odds in bold. I don't know the spreads yet but I'm going to bold who I think will cover whatever I think the spread will be.

Sept 2
Arkansas State at Oklahoma
Texas State at Baylor
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina at UCLA

Sept 9
James Madison at Virginia
Troy at Kansas State
Appalachian State at North Carolina
Southern Miss at Florida State

Sept 16
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin - This one is tricky considering Luke Fickell is installing the Air Raid. Could be a 63 - 56 type of game
Wake Forest at Old Dominion - Again, tricky, how does Wake Forest respond without Sam Hartman?
ULM at Texas A&M - ULM covers, Jimbo is garbage
South Alabama at Oklahoma State

Sept 23
Virginia Tech at Marshall

Sept 30
Louisiana at Minnesota

Oct 7
Marshall at NC State

Nov 18
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Georgia State at LSU - Georgia State is going to develop a reputation among SEC schools. Late season game too.
ULM at Ole Miss

For a second I thought you were picking winner vs covering the spreads.

If SBC wins 12+ of these matchups, holy crap the landscape will change.

I think the SBC will get some wins this year, but I don't think it will have the impact as last season. We got two top ten wins within 45 minutes of each other, and I don't think we have a path to equal that again this year. Even if we get those wins against Oklahoma or Wisconsin, I don't think its resonating like last year, even if we get more wins.

(08-01-2023 12:55 PM)EigenEagle Wrote: [ -> ]Here's the Sun Belt vs. P5 spreads for 2023 calculated with SP+ and FPI. Both predict about 3 P5 wins.

They have the Sun Belt's average rank in the 90s and recent history shows that it being in the 80s is more realistic, so that's probably an under-estimation.

Just don't get your hopes up too high. Getting 3 wins again would be fine and 4 would be outstanding.

I'd take the Sun Belt team to cover almost all of those spreads.

(08-01-2023 01:29 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote: [ -> ]I think the SBC will get some wins this year, but I don't think it will have the impact as last season. We got two top ten wins within 45 minutes of each other, and I don't think we have a path to equal that again this year. Even if we get those wins against Oklahoma or Wisconsin, I don't think its resonating like last year, even if we get more wins.

No doubt. The brand wins accomplished on that Saturday afternoon was epic. Gonna be real tough to top that.

(08-01-2023 12:56 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like P5 wins are starting to feel overrated. Still nice to get, but not very surprising these days. There's sort of an expectation at this point.

In just the last 5 years, the SBC schools have 15 wins vs. the P5. We have 5 wins against ranked P5 schools (#6 Texas A&M, #8 Notre Dame, #13 BYU, #13 Virginia Tech, #23 Iowa State).

On top of that, we're 6-6 against the Big 12 in that same span.

Strongly disagree. Schools with endless resources are supposed to recruit better/hire better/coach better/beat schools with limited resources. Any time a G5 can upset a P5, it's great and should be celebrated and not diminished, regardless of their records. P5 scalps are crucial in helping to build your school/conferences brand/value in the CFB world.

(08-01-2023 03:10 PM)ericsaid Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-01-2023 12:55 PM)EigenEagle Wrote: [ -> ]Here's the Sun Belt vs. P5 spreads for 2023 calculated with SP+ and FPI. Both predict about 3 P5 wins.

They have the Sun Belt's average rank in the 90s and recent history shows that it being in the 80s is more realistic, so that's probably an under-estimation.

Just don't get your hopes up too high. Getting 3 wins again would be fine and 4 would be outstanding.

I'd take the Sun Belt team to cover almost all of those spreads.

Those spreads are not particularly favorable overall.

Don't understand how VT is -17 vs ODU after losing to them last year.

(08-01-2023 11:42 AM)benny_t Wrote: [ -> ]Sept 2
Arkansas State at Oklahoma
Texas State at Baylor
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina at UCLA

Sept 9
James Madison at Virginia
Troy at Kansas State
Appalachian State at North Carolina
Southern Miss at Florida State

Sept 16
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin
Wake Forest at Old Dominion
ULM at Texas A&M
South Alabama at Oklahoma State

Sept 23
Virginia Tech at Marshall

Sept 30
Louisiana at Minnesota

Oct 7
Marshall at NC State

Nov 18
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Georgia State at LSU
ULM at Ole Miss

The bold is where I believe we have the best chance of exceeding the four wins of last year. I'm gonna say we get 5 of the 7 and probably none of the other games.

(08-01-2023 09:04 PM)BleedingPurple Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-01-2023 11:42 AM)benny_t Wrote: [ -> ]Sept 2
Arkansas State at Oklahoma
Texas State at Baylor
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
Coastal Carolina at UCLA

Sept 9
James Madison at Virginia
Troy at Kansas State
Appalachian State at North Carolina
Southern Miss at Florida State

Sept 16
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin
Wake Forest at Old Dominion
ULM at Texas A&M
South Alabama at Oklahoma State

Sept 23
Virginia Tech at Marshall

Sept 30
Louisiana at Minnesota

Oct 7
Marshall at NC State

Nov 18
Southern Miss at Mississippi State
Georgia State at LSU
ULM at Ole Miss

The bold is where I believe we have the best chance of exceeding the four wins of last year. I'm gonna say we get 5 of the 7 and probably none of the other games.

I believe Coastal has a decent shot at UCLA if McCall has a good day and the defense can get a few stops and limit big plays. Their rush defense was ok last year, but they were #117 in pass D. South had no trouble moving the ball against them. They also lost almost all of their offensive production from their game against us, including their top QB and RB. They have a freshman penciled in as their starting QB so Coastal will be his first game. He was highly recruited, but he doesn't have the experience that McCall's got.

Funny how I can think of having a decent shot against a team like UCLA. A few years ago I'd have just wanted to stay within 5 tds.