CSNbbs

Monty Show says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 19.7.

Aztecgolfer says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 32.1.

(06-19-2023 10:33 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: [ -> ]Monty Show says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 19.7.

Aztecgolfer says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 32.1.

Aztecgolfer is also out opining on UCLA sticking around and not taking 3 times what the PAC will see from the B1G. If this deal was 32, we would know already.

I think it's gonna be $27M. Somewhat close to the Big XII, but still a little short.

19 to 20 million. 75 million when UCLA returns next year.

(06-19-2023 10:33 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: [ -> ]Monty Show says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 19.7.

Aztecgolfer says a higher-up at SDSU told him it's 32.1.

I went with $24m. The problem with that number is that it probably causes multiple defections, leading to a lower final number.

Both Monty and Aztec could be right. SDSU gets $19.7m avg for the deal, starting low but ending close to the rest, while the avg for the 10 left-behinds is $32.1m. That seems like a reasonable estimate for an all-streaming deal.

I'm going with somewhere in the 28s and that I still think the hangup with the deal is sublicensing.

$350-400M for 12 schools. Which would put them in the low to mid 30s.

Where's the <19 option? PAC is going to lose teams and that'll drop the final number. 30+ simply isn't going to happen, if that deal was on the table it would have been signed by now.

$22.5 M per school

Lower than the B12. That’s for sure.

The real question is how much of the deal will be streaming only? I think that in itself can cause some schools to leave. $25 million and limited streaming, they stay. $25 million majority streaming, the conference cracks. $25 million and total streaming, OSU and WSU are all that remains.

(06-20-2023 05:59 AM)clunk Wrote: [ -> ]Where's the <19 option? PAC is going to lose teams and that'll drop the final number. 30+ simply isn't going to happen, if that deal was on the table it would have been signed by now.

That's a distinct possibility. There could be no deal at all and they all scatter or more or less merge with the MWC. If its too far below the Big 12 or if the Big 10 decides it wants Washington and Oregon now, there are mass defections.

Too many variables for me to feel comfortable with any guess.

I think the remaining PAC members want to stick together and be rewarded for signing a GOR with slightly north of $30-million and any expansion will be at the directive of the media partners, but I think a presence in SoCal will add value.

“$1, Bob”

I go back and forth on this. I think they should wind up with something near the Big 12. Maybe that is $30M, maybe it is $27M. I think it must be close enough that schools don't see enough incentive to move to the Big 12, but it must also be a very bitter pill to swallow. I can't decide if that bitterpill comes in the form of lack of linear exposure, or lower dollar amounts.

I think they ultimately get something that they can sell and spin as being "better" than the Big 12, but there are back end issues like production costs or unguaranteed bonus metrics that hide the real value of the contract being something lower.

I don't know what to make of SDSU. They seem to be first team up and I can't believe they would give notice before receiving an actual invitation from the PAC. I'm sure it will work out, but what a mess. The real question is, is SDSU coming in as a replacement for departing teams, will they just be team #11, is there a team #12 in SMU? Hard to see how those two will drive up the value of the contract, but at partial shares for the media cycle, the PAC could rob those programs to pay extra incentives to Oregon/Washington.

The key of the deal will be the details. Does the Pac have to cover some of the production costs? How much is streaming?

(06-20-2023 10:16 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote: [ -> ]I go back and forth on this. I think they should wind up with something near the Big 12. Maybe that is $30M, maybe it is $27M. I think it must be close enough that schools don't see enough incentive to move to the Big 12, but it must also be a very bitter pill to swallow. I can't decide if that bitterpill comes in the form of lack of linear exposure, or lower dollar amounts.

I think they ultimately get something that they can sell and spin as being "better" than the Big 12, but there are back end issues like production costs or unguaranteed bonus metrics that hide the real value of the contract being something lower.

I don't know what to make of SDSU. They seem to be first team up and I can't believe they would give notice before receiving an actual invitation from the PAC. I'm sure it will work out, but what a mess. The real question is, is SDSU coming in as a replacement for departing teams, will they just be team #11, is there a team #12 in SMU? Hard to see how those two will drive up the value of the contract, but at partial shares for the media cycle, the PAC could rob those programs to pay extra incentives to Oregon/Washington.

I think it's a lower dollar amount, but they get the same level of linear exposure they currently do, minus, perhaps, the PAC-12 Network. (And that's even if they do add SDSU and a couple other schools to get back to twelve members.) Losing the LA-based schools will really hurt the brand. But that said, I'm with you that the number will be less than the Big XII's number, but it'll be closer than some people think. (At the same time, I also think Colorado will leave regardless, hence the potential need to add three schools if they wish to get back to twelve members.)

(06-20-2023 10:16 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote: [ -> ]I go back and forth on this. I think they should wind up with something near the Big 12. Maybe that is $30M, maybe it is $27M. I think it must be close enough that schools don't see enough incentive to move to the Big 12, but it must also be a very bitter pill to swallow. I can't decide if that bitterpill comes in the form of lack of linear exposure, or lower dollar amounts.

I think they ultimately get something that they can sell and spin as being "better" than the Big 12, but there are back end issues like production costs or unguaranteed bonus metrics that hide the real value of the contract being something lower.

I don't know what to make of SDSU. They seem to be first team up and I can't believe they would give notice before receiving an actual invitation from the PAC. I'm sure it will work out, but what a mess. The real question is, is SDSU coming in as a replacement for departing teams, will they just be team #11, is there a team #12 in SMU? Hard to see how those two will drive up the value of the contract, but at partial shares for the media cycle, the PAC could rob those programs to pay extra incentives to Oregon/Washington.

That was certainly what I considered easily most likely for a long time, but as this drags out, there's reason to question that.

My hunch is approximately 25 million.