CSNbbs

Quote:Several people have sent this video interview requesting opinion. The video reflects an interview between two Australians. The interviewer is a podcaster the person being interviewed explains his background on the ground in Ukraine as “officially” an “aid worker,” however, what he describes is more like a mercenary.

The interview is rather lengthy and starts at 02:13 with a question about what is happening in Bakhmut in the Eastern Ukraine fighting battlefield. The unknown Australian merc in the interview describes the Russians overwhelming the Ukraine forces in most battles. The Ukrainian military units have made several strategic mistakes that have played into the hands of the more capable Russian forces.

The main Russian element being described is the Wagner group who are well known to be brutal and strategic special force fighters. The interview is from a pro-Ukraine, pro-western alliance perspective. However, in the bigger picture the Ukraine military units are being ground down by attrition, despite the massive amount of aid being delivered by NATO allies. The description is a rather brutal assessment of the devastation created by horrific modern warfare. WATCH:





Summary: Ukraine not winning. Wagner PMC/Russian tactics and technology vs. Ukraine. Chinese tech advisors helping Russians. Non-existant Medi-vac. Western Military Aid Stolen 60% off the top 40% sold on black market. Russian Artillery Domination. Ukrainian Officers Incompetence. Ukrainian Soldiers Lack Basic Equipment.

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I think much of what he's saying is absolutely true and valid---but it also represents a very limited view from a very specific place. The Wagner Group, has been able to make some headway in an area where it has concentrated large numbers of forces, has been willing to suffer massive casualties (many of which are first wave prisoner fodder), and has had strong supply lines due to staying very close to their long established existing rail/supply lines in the Donbas. I think the Russians are slowly grinding down the Ukraine defense around Bakmut---but I suspect part of the plan for the Ukrainians was always to sit in very defensible positions and grind down Russian offensive capabilities at a 3, 4 or even 5 to one ratio. If you look at the map, the Russians have reached the point where they have the ability to hit the major roads going into to town---so the idea that supplies and equipment are getting shorter in supply for the Ukrainians sounds about right. I think, barring a major counter attack---the Ukrainians are going to eventually have to withdraw from that town. I personally think they are getting pretty close to that point right now.

That said----I think it’s a mistake to extrapolate the situation there to the whole war. What we have seen around Kyiv, in the Kharkiv area, and south in the Kerson region----is just the opposite. It was the Russians who were having supply issues—-getting routed---losing large swaths of territory when their defenses completely collapse. In other words, when the geography forces the Russians to rely more on trucks and less on rail lines for resupply---things get a lot more dicey for them. The reality is this war is no cake walk for either side.

(02-02-2023 02:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ]I think much of what he's saying is absolutely true and valid---but it also represents a very limited view from a very specific place. The Wagner Group, has been able to make some headway in an area where it has concentrated large numbers of forces, has been willing to suffer massive casualties (many of which are first wave prisoner fodder), and has had strong supply lines due to staying very close to their long established existing rail/supply lines in the Donbas. I think the Russians are slowly grinding down the Ukraine defense around Bakmut---but I suspect part of the plan for the Ukrainians was always to sit in very defensible positions and grind down Russian offensive capabilities at a 3, 4 or even 5 to one ratio. If you look at the map, the Russians have reached the point where they have the ability to hit the major roads going into to town---so the idea that supplies and equipment are getting shorter in supply for the Ukrainians sounds about right. I think, barring a major counter attack---the Ukrainians are going to eventually have to withdraw from that town. I personally think they are getting pretty close to that point right now.

That said----I think its a mistake to extrapolate the situation there to the whole war. What we have seen around Kyiv, in the Kharkiv area, and south in the Kerson region----is just the opposite. It was the Russians who were having supply issues and are getting routed---losing large swaths of territory when their defenses completely collapse. In other words, when the geography forces the Russians to rely more on trucks and less on rail lines for resupply---things get a lot more dicey for them. The reality is this war is no cake walk for either side.

And Bakhmut has been going on for what, 3 months? Some Ukrainians thought it would fall months ago. Even in Bakhmut, Russians gains are no more than a few hundred meters over months of fighting. And at times they have lost previous gains. They were in the town a couple months ago and got driven back out. In the meantime, they lost Kherson in the south and they got driven back out of Kharkiv in the north, dozens of miles.

The Russians are not winning. Ukraine is letting them spend a great amount of resources for an insignificant town. The front lines in the east have barely moved since the Ukrainians drove the Russians out of Kharkiv.