Over the years, the middle class in college basketball has been shrinking, right? The number of leagues getting multiple bids has been shrinking or has it?
Since 1997 (number of leagues with multiple bids): I picked that year because the previous years Wikipedia didn't break down.
97: 9
98: 11
99: 11
00: 12
01: 10
02: 11
03: 12
04: 11
05: 12
06: 12
07: 12
08: 10
09: 9
10: 11
11: 10
12: 12
13: 10
14: 10
15: 11
16: 9
17: 9
18: 9
19: 11
21: 11
22: 10
I went into this exercise expecting a consolidation of bids. There has been some of that (no year with 12 multi-bid conferences in a decade), but it wasn't as stark as I thought it would be.
I do think there are three reasons for this trend:
1. Consolidation of basketball brands into fewer leagues
2. More conference games among major leagues
3. Reluctance to play mid-majors out of conference
I do think we are on the brink of finally seeing the bid consolidation many have been prediciting.
Looking at Bracket Matrix this year, the multi bid conferences numbers are looking total 8
Big 10, SEC, Big 12, PAC 12, ACC, MWC, American*, WCC*
CUSA could make it 9 if FAU gets knocked off in their tournament
I could see the American becoming a single bid conference starting next year as they are only looking at 2 this year and 1 of those is Houston, who is leaving.
If Gonzaga ever left the WCC they would be a single bid conference.
The biggest thing to keep an eye out on will be the Atlantic 10 and the American. Historically the Atlantic 10 has been a multi bid conference, so if that is ending that would be big.
I think you can also trace the American's multibid status to CUSA 1.0's multibid status. With the Big 12 absorbing so many of those schools it wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or even 6 multibid conferences become the new floor.
A down A10 + American conference post Big 12 expansion + A Gonzaga less WCC = 6 to 7 multibid conferences, depending on the MWC
The new American would likely be multi-bid this year with Memphis and Florida Atlantic.
The WCC without Gonzaga and BYU would be borderline, certainly not this year, but last year likely two bid with St. Mary's and San Francisco. I get that their numbers are inflated with Gonzaga in their Strength of Schedule, but they would keep Gonzaga's tournament credits so there would be money to invest.
I'm in the minority thinking the A-10 will be fine. Dayton's underlying advanced stat numbers are fine (50-60 range) in the kenpom and other systems. St. Louis and VCU are still fine programs that are slightly, but not alarmingly, down. Richmond and Davidson are down a bit more, but again, I don't think anyone points at either program and says "that program is collapsing." Those five programs are enough to sustain the A-10 as multibid on their own in most seasons. Add to that UMass and URI hiring big name coaches and investing in their programs and you are up to 7. The issue is the bottom half. Fordham and Duquesne have shown a bit of progress. If they can sustain at the levels they are at (top 100-125), great. That's probably George Mason's ceiling, too. St. Bonaventure has been an at large caliber team lately, but I'm not sure that is sustainable. George Washington, LaSalle, and St. Joe's may be done as major programs. And boy howdy, the A-10 should have kept the receipt for Loyola.
Even with the loss of Cincy and Houston, the American will offer seven men's basketball programs that have been fairly respectable over the years: Temple, Charlotte, UAB, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa and Wichita. I'm hoping it averages two bids.
Is there any indication that the transfer portal is disproportionally hurting the five (or six) mid-major conferences? They seem to have had more talent until recently, and maybe some of their late bloomers who didn't get offers from the P6 are now getting poached before they can lead their team to an at large bid.
(01-30-2023 03:48 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]I do think we are on the brink of finally seeing the bid consolidation many have been prediciting.
Looking at Bracket Matrix this year, the multi bid conferences numbers are looking total 8
Big 10, SEC, Big 12, PAC 12, ACC, MWC, American*, WCC*
CUSA could make it 9 if FAU gets knocked off in their tournament
I could see the American becoming a single bid conference starting next year as they are only looking at 2 this year and 1 of those is Houston, who is leaving.
If Gonzaga ever left the WCC they would be a single bid conference.
The biggest thing to keep an eye out on will be the Atlantic 10 and the American. Historically the Atlantic 10 has been a multi bid conference, so if that is ending that would be big.
I think you can also trace the American's multibid status to CUSA 1.0's multibid status. With the Big 12 absorbing so many of those schools it wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or even 6 multibid conferences become the new floor.
A down A10 + American conference post Big 12 expansion + A Gonzaga less WCC = 6 to 7 multibid conferences, depending on the MWC
People have been saying the end is near since the beginning of time too...
(01-30-2023 05:11 PM)lion1983 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2023 03:48 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]I do think we are on the brink of finally seeing the bid consolidation many have been prediciting.
Looking at Bracket Matrix this year, the multi bid conferences numbers are looking total 8
Big 10, SEC, Big 12, PAC 12, ACC, MWC, American*, WCC*
CUSA could make it 9 if FAU gets knocked off in their tournament
I could see the American becoming a single bid conference starting next year as they are only looking at 2 this year and 1 of those is Houston, who is leaving.
If Gonzaga ever left the WCC they would be a single bid conference.
The biggest thing to keep an eye out on will be the Atlantic 10 and the American. Historically the Atlantic 10 has been a multi bid conference, so if that is ending that would be big.
I think you can also trace the American's multibid status to CUSA 1.0's multibid status. With the Big 12 absorbing so many of those schools it wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or even 6 multibid conferences become the new floor.
A down A10 + American conference post Big 12 expansion + A Gonzaga less WCC = 6 to 7 multibid conferences, depending on the MWC
People have been saying the end is near since the beginning of time too...
and one day they will be right.
(01-30-2023 03:48 PM)solohawks Wrote: [ -> ]I do think we are on the brink of finally seeing the bid consolidation many have been prediciting.
Looking at Bracket Matrix this year, the multi bid conferences numbers are looking total 8
Big 10, SEC, Big 12, PAC 12, ACC, MWC, American*, WCC*
CUSA could make it 9 if FAU gets knocked off in their tournament
I could see the American becoming a single bid conference starting next year as they are only looking at 2 this year and 1 of those is Houston, who is leaving.
If Gonzaga ever left the WCC they would be a single bid conference.
The biggest thing to keep an eye out on will be the Atlantic 10 and the American. Historically the Atlantic 10 has been a multi bid conference, so if that is ending that would be big.
I think you can also trace the American's multibid status to CUSA 1.0's multibid status. With the Big 12 absorbing so many of those schools it wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or even 6 multibid conferences become the new floor.
A down A10 + American conference post Big 12 expansion + A Gonzaga less WCC = 6 to 7 multibid conferences, depending on the MWC
Refuse to watch basketball until March, but did you forget the Big East or are they hurting this year?
Like I said before there have been 12 different conferences that have had multi-bids since 2013.
OVC - happened once plus they've lost Belmont and Murray State, so doubtful they'll ever get two again
WCC - should have 2 for most part but just a question whether losing BYU will hurt them.
A-10 - trending downwards from 6 in 2014 to 3 to 2 the past 3 years.
MVC - only one multi-bid the past 5 years but additions of Belmont and Murray St could push them back up
AAC - has dropped to 2 the past 2 years and is losing 3 teams
MWC - up to 4 from usual 2 last year
The fun of the tournament is all the underdog schools that haven't had enough national exposure.
Really who cares about the 8th place SEC or B1G team as a 10 seed
If I’m the Big East, I’d be looking to add some of the top A-10 schools to try and and create some more separation and keep themselves in basketball’s P club.
If I’m the MWC, I’d be trying again to land Gonzaga.
(01-30-2023 04:31 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Even with the loss of Cincy and Houston, the American will offer seven men's basketball programs that have been fairly respectable over the years: Temple, Charlotte, UAB, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa and Wichita. I'm hoping it averages two bids.
SMU?
And Charlotte and Tulsa haven't been relevant in years, almost decades.
(01-30-2023 05:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]If I’m the Big East, I’d be looking to add some of the top A-10 schools to try and and create some more separation and keep themselves in basketball’s P club.
If I’m the MWC, I’d be trying again to land Gonzaga.
What top A-10 schools?
They're mostly Catholic schools, they're not just adding anyone.
(01-30-2023 10:59 AM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I do think there are three reasons for this trend:
1. Consolidation of basketball brands into fewer leagues
2. More conference games among major leagues
3. Reluctance to play mid-majors out of conference
I'm not a college basketball fan, but my impression is that the selection committee has become less willing over the years to suspend doubt and award a mid-major with a gaudy record an at-large bid, even one with a decent RPI, instead preferring to stick with high-majors that go .500 in conference play.
I get the feeling that the reason for this is the amount of money at stake for conferences that get at-large bids.
Getting into the Big Dance seems a little less about merit than it used to be.
(I feel neutral about this as a Bowling Green man. The Falcons haven't been to the Big Dance since 1968 and has probably never once deserved to go.)
(01-30-2023 05:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]If I’m the Big East, I’d be looking to add some of the top A-10 schools to try and and create some more separation and keep themselves in basketball’s P club.
What? No need, unless you're somehow arguing to kick Georgetown out of the Big East to join the CAA or Big South.
(01-30-2023 06:21 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2023 05:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]If I’m the Big East, I’d be looking to add some of the top A-10 schools to try and and create some more separation and keep themselves in basketball’s P club.
What? No need, unless you're somehow arguing to kick Georgetown out of the Big East to join the CAA or Big South.
Yea, the Big East is a power league easily as is. No need to add Dayton, Saint Louis, or VCU to cement anything.
(01-30-2023 05:34 PM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2023 04:31 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Even with the loss of Cincy and Houston, the American will offer seven men's basketball programs that have been fairly respectable over the years: Temple, Charlotte, UAB, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa and Wichita. I'm hoping it averages two bids.
SMU?
And Charlotte and Tulsa haven't been relevant in years, almost decades.
SMU, Charlotte and Tulsa are solid programs (I used the term "fairly respectable" in the previous post). True, they are not nationally relevant like, say, Arkansas. But they each have a decent history and the potential to be competitive and respectable most years. All three have a very legit history with name coaches.
Per Wiki for SMU:
In 104 years of basketball, SMU's record is 1,377–1,237. SMU has reached one Final Four, has made 12 NCAA Tournament Appearances, won 16 Conference Championships, had 11 All-Americans, and 23 NBA Draft selections.
SMU finished the 2016–17 season with a 30–5 record, and won their second conference title in three years. They set the school record for single season wins, and returned to the NCAA Tournament following a postseason ban in the 2015–16 season.
Per Wiki for Tulsa
The team has long been successful, especially since the hiring of Nolan Richardson in 1980. Many big-name coaches previously worked at Tulsa, like University of Kansas coach Bill Self and Minnesota coach Tubby Smith. The Hurricane have been to the NCAA tournament 14 times in their history. In addition, they have won two National Invitation Tournaments, in 1981 and 2001, and one CBI tournament. In 2005, Street & Smith's named the University of Tulsa as the 59th best college basketball program of all time.
Bill: if you don’t win the NCAA, nobody cares.
^ Again, decades ago. SMU while they were part of the SWC, Tulsa in the Valley and WAC and Charlotte in C-USA. SMU had a brief uprising last decade but other than that has been irrelevant.
You might as well list San Francisco, DePaul and Holy Cross as relevant programs.
(01-30-2023 07:14 PM)Erictelevision Wrote: [ -> ]Bill: if you don’t win the NCAA, nobody cares.
Not true but you still need to be consistent. There's nothing to suggest that those programs will be relevant other than mostly ancient history.