My conclusion is this. Eventually.....
Oregon to B1G
Washington to B1G
Florida State to SEC
Clemson to SEC
North Carolina to SEC
Notre Dame to B1G
That's 19 in each league. I'm sure both will want 20. What other schools do think will make the cut? Everyone is going to want in the SEC or B1G within the next 10 or so years because of the TV Revenue distribution difference. Notre Dame (for now) is able to hold out because of their NBC deal.
My candidates:
Kansas
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Colorado
Stanford
Cal
Miami
I think one of the B1G of SEC will want the NC and VA markets. Both have pretty large populations that would bring value. Denver is a decent market, as is the Bay area. Miami has seen better days and Kansas has always been terrible at football, and football drives the bus along with the market.
I can't believe that anybody would seriously rank UVA ahead of Miami.
Apparently UVA carries the Virginia market (which is only about half the size of the Florida market) so well that they rank behind even Wake Forest in tv viewership.
https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract
I don't believe in bloated 22+ team conferences.
I think 18 is the upper level of comfortable scheduling and functionality as a conference and not just a voting bloc
I think the SEC eventually takes 2 from the ACC as does the Big Ten.
SEC UNC and Virginia
ACC Georgia Tech and FSU
The aftermath is the formation of a lesser east coast football league and a conglomerate of remaining football brands into nationwide P3.
Power Schools Only
100% Chance
Florida St - SEC/B1G
North Carolina - SEC/B1G
Notre Dame - SEC/B1G
Oregon - B1G
Virginia - SEC/B1G
Washington - B1G
75% Chance
California - B1G
Clemson - SEC
Duke - SEC/B1G
Georgia Tech - SEC/B1G
Miami - SEC/B1G
Stanford - B1G
50% Chance
Colorado - B1G
Kansas - SEC/B1G
Pittsburgh - B1G
Syracuse - B1G
Virginia Tech - SEC/B1G
25% Chance
Arizona - B1G
Louisville - SEC
North Carolina St - SEC/B1G
Oklahoma St - SEC
Utah - B1G
Above 0% Chance
Arizona St - B1G
Boston College - B1G
TCU - SEC
Texas Tech - SEC
0% Chance
Baylor
BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Iowa St
Kansas St
Oregon St
Wake Forest
Washington St
West Virginia
P2? It's going to be a P1 by 2035 and then 4 "please invite us" conferences.
(01-05-2023 10:01 AM)Poster Wrote: [ -> ]I can't believe that anybody would seriously rank UVA ahead of Miami.
Apparently UVA carries the Virginia market (which is only about half the size of the Florida market) so well that they rank behind even Wake Forest in tv viewership.
https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract
I only listed them in the order I thought of them.
100%
Florida State SEC
UNC Big 10
Oregon Big 10
Virginia Big 10
Washington Big 10
Clemson SEC
Stanford Big 10
Pittsburgh Big 10
Virginia Tech SEC
NC State SEC
Oklahoma State SEC
75%
California Big 10
Georgia Tech Big 10
Colorado Big 10
Arizona Big 10
Utah Big 10
TCU SEC
UCF SEC
Cincinnati SEC
Kansas State SEC
Navy Big 10
Georgia State SEC
50%
Kansas Big 10
Arizona State SEC
USF SEC
Tulane Big 10
UAB SEC
Army Big 10
UMass. possible Big 10 if they get AAU
UConn possible Big 10 if they get AAU
Buffalo Big 10
UNR possible Big 10 if they get AAU
ODU SEC
25%
Miami florida SEC
Louisville SEC
Texas Tech SEC
Colorado State SEC
Stony Brook Big 10
New Mexico SEC
0%
Duke
Syracuse
Boston College
Baylor
BYU
Iowa State
Oregon State
Wake Forest
Washington State
West Virginia
San Diego State
Rice Big 10 possible
Boise State
Fresno State
UNLV
San Jose State
SMU
Memphis possible SEC
Utah State
Notre Dame does not want to be in a conference but if they have to choose, I am starting to think that they will want to be in the ACC. If so, the ACC may choose to go to 20 teams:
Notre Dame, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech to the ACC.
The B10 would follow suit, adding Washington, Oregon, Stanford and California.
The SEC would stand pat at 16. There's no reason for them to add anyone as no one will increase their overall value and no teams want to join from other "P" leagues due to a more difficult path to the playoffs.
The remnants of the PAC and the B12 merge:
West
Oregon State
Washington State
BYU
Boise State
Utah
SDSU
Arizona
Arizona State
East
UCF
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Iowa State
South Florida
Colorado
Houston
Kansas State
SMU
This new conglomeration may or may not go to 20 teams as well. If they do, they'll raid again from the remnants of the MWC and American for more teams, likely looking to the American first. Schools like Colorado State, UTSA, Rice, Tulane, ECU, and Memphis will be considered if that were to happen.
If this new conference stays at 16, the American would add Colorado State, Air Force and Wyoming in addition to at least two schools from the Sunbelt (most likely JMU, Old Dominion and one other of Marshall or App State) to get to 18.
Hell, no one know what will happen. Let chaos reign.
SEC
NC, Va, FSU, Clemson for 20
Mia, Louv, Baylor, Kansas for 24
BIG
Wash, Org, Stanford, Cal for 20
Ariz, Utah, Colo, Syc for 24
B-12
ASU, WSU, OSU,
GT, NCST, Duke, VT, Pitt, BC
Conn, Memph, USF, SDST, Fresno