CSNbbs

UAB at FAU this Thursday (6 p.m.) UPDATED

KenPom Numbers:

UAB - 51
FAU - 39

The Owls are 12-1 and 2-0 on the season. Their two best wins are road victories at Florida (57) and at North Texas (58).

Florida squandered a 10-point second-half lead, as FAU went on a 25-4 run halfway through the second half. FAU held on for a 76-74 win. FAU shot 13-24 (54%) from three.

North Texas led by 9 points with 5 minutes remaining. They never scored again as FAU finished the game on a 13-0 run, to win 50-46. That’s not the halftime score. 50-46 was the final score. FAU shot 3-23 (13%) from three.

The Owls worst, and only loss, was at Ole Miss (77). FAU never really threatened in this game, and lost 80-67.

FAU has seven players with 10 or more three-pointers this season. UAB has three.

KenPom has it UAB 73 - FAU 78

They’re serious trouble. I expect we lose this game, but I am anxious to see how we play. As AK said, this is the next step for this team, a tough in conference road game. I’d be thrilled if we can come out of there with a win, but being the pessimist I am, I have trouble seeing it happen.

I think our top end talent is better than theirs, but they seem to be very deep and have a lot of experience. They have some impressive wins and they've blown teams out that they outmatched, more than we have.

It will be very tough to get a W against them, but if we play a relatively clean game and bring the effort on D like I've seen the last 2 games, I can see it happening.

No matter what happens, I just hope we don't lay an egg against FIU on Saturday. We absolutely cannot lose that game.

What does FAU do well, what are their strengths and weaknesses? I don't know much about them. I thought they were pretty solid last year, but had no idea they would improve this much season to season.

Last season at Bartow Arena, UAB won 76-65. FAU led most of the second half before UAB pulled away in the last 5 minutes.

In the conference tourney, UAB won 80-66. UAB dominated that game.

FAU shoots the three-ball well (37.5%). 37th best in D1. UAB is 81st at 35.8%.

Effective Field Goal Percentage, as defined by KenPom, is

eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA

In other words it’s like field goal percentage, but an extra 50% is given for made three-pointers.

FAU is 25th in the country in eFG% at 54.9%. UAB is 103rd at 51.8%.

Bottomline, FAU shoots the ball well.

On the other side of the ball, FAU defends the three ball extremely well. Three-point field goal percentage against them is only 27.6%, or 15th best. Consequently they have the 17th best eFG% on the defensive side.

FAU doesn’t go to the free-throw line a lot, and when they do, they aren’t very successful.

In free-throw attempts divided by field-goal attempts,

FTA/FGA

FAU ranks 325th at 24.7%. It’s fortunate for them as they only make 66.7% (296th) of their free throws.

UAB is at 40.3% (27th) and 75.0% (58th) respectively.

At least one other stat stands out for FAU. They don’t give up many assists. In their recent victory at North Texas, North Texas had 2 assists for the game. Two!

FAU ranks 3rd best in preventing assists by the opposing team.

They play with the Russian?Vlafislav Goldin at the 5. He has been very good. Hitting over 60% from the field. I don't think he shoot's the 3 ball. But they have just about everyone else that can hit the 3. Micheal Forrest was the top scorer last year and came off the bench vs North Texas. They seem to feed off each other and are very good at the 3. North Texas had a hard time getting a shot off until late in the shot clock. Maybe that had more to do with North Texas than FAU.

So in a nutshell they play good defense and shoot well

It appears FAU does a good job of capitalizing on scoring droughts from opponents. Need to keep that from being a factor, especially in the second half.

(01-01-2023 09:07 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]So in a nutshell they play good defense and shoot well

A step further than that - they play elite 3pt defense and shoot it pretty well from there too. Seems like this is going to be another really tough game for Jelly.

(01-03-2023 01:50 PM)Auburn_Blazer Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-01-2023 09:07 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]So in a nutshell they play good defense and shoot well

A step further than that - they play elite 3pt defense and shoot it pretty well from there too. Seems like this is going to be another really tough game for Jelly.

That wouldn't surprise me. I love Jelly, and I think he is the best player I've seen play at UAB - which spans 20 years now... But the biggest knock on him is that he doesn't really elevate his game against elite teams, or teams that make it an absolute point to take him out of our game plan/knock him off his game. What game against an actual GOOD team has Jelly really excelled in? What game has Jelly excelled in against a team like UTEP that made it their number one priority to bully him and take him out of his game? I can't think of one off of the top of my head.

That may be being hard on him, but if you aren't able to take your game to the next level against GOOD teams, you aren't a next next level star.

FAU is good, but this is a winnable game.

(01-03-2023 02:47 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]What game has Jelly excelled in against a team like UTEP that made it their number one priority to bully him and take him out of his game? I can't think of one off of the top of my head.

Louisiana Tech in last year's C-USA Championship game. He absolutely buried them in our first game, and then lost to us again before facing off for the title.

There was no team in the nation that had a target on Jelly like Louisiana Tech did and he still put 27 on them, despite LA Tech having the third best defense in the league.

if we don't play awesome team ball, FAU will blow us out in their house.

If jelly is double or triple teamed (box and 1), then we need to use him as a decoy to open up other plays to get buckets. or he could use the overplay to get some great assists.

Another alternative is Mr Gaines takin the reins and scoring a boat load of points.

(01-03-2023 02:53 PM)demiveeman Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 02:47 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]What game has Jelly excelled in against a team like UTEP that made it their number one priority to bully him and take him out of his game? I can't think of one off of the top of my head.

Louisiana Tech in last year's C-USA Championship game. He absolutely buried them in our first game, and then lost to us again before facing off for the title.

There was no team in the nation that had a target on Jelly like Louisiana Tech did and he still put 27 on them, despite LA Tech having the third best defense in the league.

That's one.. but I don't consider that La Tech team to be that great..

I can think of at least 5 against actually good teams off the top of my head where he's been pretty darn bad, 6 if you include the last UTEP game.

(01-03-2023 03:17 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]I can think of at least 5 against actually good teams off the top of my head where he's been pretty darn bad, 6 if you include the last UTEP game.

He still dropped 25 on UTEP. Since his first month as a Blazer, he's had one bad game (Houston).

His scoring low is 8 against Millsaps, who clearly figured out how to stop Jelly Walker: give up so many points before the first official time-out that Jelly goes to the bench while the trillions play the rest of the game.

Just because he did something unbelievable to beat MTSU in three OTs, doesn't make it a bad game if he's merely "good."

He's only blocked one shot during his time at UAB, so he'll never be Mayor of Blockingham.

(01-03-2023 03:17 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 02:53 PM)demiveeman Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 02:47 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]What game has Jelly excelled in against a team like UTEP that made it their number one priority to bully him and take him out of his game? I can't think of one off of the top of my head.

Louisiana Tech in last year's C-USA Championship game. He absolutely buried them in our first game, and then lost to us again before facing off for the title.

There was no team in the nation that had a target on Jelly like Louisiana Tech did and he still put 27 on them, despite LA Tech having the third best defense in the league.

That's one.. but I don't consider that La Tech team to be that great..

I can think of at least 5 against actually good teams off the top of my head where he's been pretty darn bad, 6 if you include the last UTEP game.

Yeah, you said "a team like UTEP", but I don't think UTEP is great. It took overtimes for them to beat a bottom-feeder SWAC team and a bad Big West team - both on their home court. I think they are going to end up in the middle of C-USA at best at the end of the season.

Last year's LaTech team is definitely better than this year's UTEP, IMO.

That said, I thought the spirit of your post was more about capable teams that specifically highlighted and schemed to stop Jelly - and LaTech is DEFINITELY in that bucket. Not a single team we've faced since he's arrived has wanted to stop Jelly Walker more. And they couldn't.

But you're not wrong when it comes to the trend.

(01-03-2023 03:39 PM)demiveeman Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 03:17 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 02:53 PM)demiveeman Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 02:47 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]What game has Jelly excelled in against a team like UTEP that made it their number one priority to bully him and take him out of his game? I can't think of one off of the top of my head.

Louisiana Tech in last year's C-USA Championship game. He absolutely buried them in our first game, and then lost to us again before facing off for the title.

There was no team in the nation that had a target on Jelly like Louisiana Tech did and he still put 27 on them, despite LA Tech having the third best defense in the league.

That's one.. but I don't consider that La Tech team to be that great..

I can think of at least 5 against actually good teams off the top of my head where he's been pretty darn bad, 6 if you include the last UTEP game.

Yeah, you said "a team like UTEP", but I don't think UTEP is great. It took overtimes for them to beat a bottom-feeder SWAC team and a bad Big West team - both on their home court. I think they are going to end up in the middle of C-USA at best at the end of the season.

Last year's LaTech team is definitely better than this year's UTEP, IMO.

That said, I thought the spirit of your post was more about capable teams that specifically highlighted and schemed to stop Jelly - and LaTech is DEFINITELY in that bucket. Not a single team we've faced since he's arrived has wanted to stop Jelly Walker more. And they couldn't.

But you're not wrong when it comes to the trend.

Yes I contradicted myself a bit there but I think you know what I meant. Yes the trend is pretty stark when you look at it.

(01-03-2023 03:35 PM)58-56 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-03-2023 03:17 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote: [ -> ]I can think of at least 5 against actually good teams off the top of my head where he's been pretty darn bad, 6 if you include the last UTEP game.

He still dropped 25 on UTEP. Since his first month as a Blazer, he's had one bad game (Houston).

His scoring low is 8 against Millsaps, who clearly figured out how to stop Jelly Walker: give up so many points before the first official time-out that Jelly goes to the bench while the trillions play the rest of the game.

Just because he did something unbelievable to beat MTSU in three OTs, doesn't make it a bad game if he's merely "good."

He's only blocked one shot during his time at UAB, so he'll never be Mayor of Blockingham.

Are you crazy? He's had a lot more than one bad game as a Blazer.

He dropped 25 against UTEP, but took 26 shot attempts and was terrible on defense and with a lot of his decision making. He was so bad he literally got benched and the team played better without him for the key stretch of the game. Probably his worst game as a Blazer.

in 21-22:

Against USC: 4-16, 15 pts, 4 TOs
Against USF: 3-12, 10 pts, 3 TOs
Against WVU: 6-20, 13 pts, 7 TOs
against UNT at Bartow: 7-18, 17 points
against houston: awful game

WVU this season - 6-17 for 19 points with 7 TOs.
UTEP this season was awful also. 25 points on 26 shot attempts, 2-15 from three, 4 fouls, 4 TOs, poor defense.

Jelly is a GREAT player, but there is a clear trend that he struggles mightily against bigger, more athletic teams, really GOOD teams, and teams that 100% focus on bullying him/pushing him around/taking him out of the game.

That's really the only negative thing I can say about him - that he hasn't elevated his game against the best of the best competition. On the contrary, he's played much worse..