(11-13-2022 06:57 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 04:32 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 02:29 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking they look into Texas, UTSA or UTEP.
The MWC could take UTEP any time they want them. UTSA would never leave an AAC with other Texas programs (UNT & Rice), to go make less money in the MWC. That would be stupid.
Would they make less money in the MWC? At least the MWC has equal TV revenue sharing at $4 million per member (except for BSU’s extra $1.8 million cut), and that number could increase significantly when the conference renegotiates its deal in 2025. I thought the AAC’s 2019 TV deal that goes out to 2032 gives its legacy members around $7 million per year but the newbies including UTSA, UNT and Rice are having to settle for only around $3 million in TV money per year. Is that not true?
I don't know what they make now. I do think any team moving to a better conference will be paid what they are worth initially to that conference. IF SDSU leaves, however, it makes the sweetheart deal with BSU look pretty stupid. Perhaps some MWC teams will look to move to the AAC if SDSU leaves.
(11-13-2022 04:27 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 02:03 PM)ESE84 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-12-2022 02:24 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote: [ -> ]I think the MWC stands pat, as I don’t see any AAC teams or Texas State joining them, and they won’t find value in the other western CUSA schools. AAC I’m going aggressive and say that they will add Delaware, finding value in a state flagship that doubles down in the Philadelphia TV market. Old Dominion would also be a strong fit, but I doubt they leave the Sun Belt either.
I doubt ODU gets any look after their disparaging comments about C-USA West and three Texas schools that will now be voting members in the AAC.
Yeah, I highly doubt any of the C-USA6 AAC additions would vote in favor of ODU. ODU was a cancer on C-USA, and before long they'll probably become a cancer on the Sun Belt. Never again do I want to see UNT in a conference with ODU.
The only one of the three that left that I can completely understand why they did it is Southern Miss. It was a tough pill to swallow for them to admit whatever advantage they had over the old Sun Belt schools was no longer there. They went from being a choice for recruits who didn’t get an offer in the SEC, ACC, Big XII and Big East to fighting for recruits with new FBS schools in their neck of the woods such as South Alabama and Troy. East Carolina is more or less in the same situation but they’re still in a better conference for now. They’ll never be in a power conference and their last chance of that happening was the Big East. I can see them making the same decision Southern Miss made once the AAC TV money/exit fees run out and join like minded schools in the Sun Belt.
Marshall? They were mostly meh. Old Dominion? I don’t ever want to see their name on the schedule.
(11-13-2022 11:44 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 11:29 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 04:58 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 04:32 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 02:29 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking they look into Texas, UTSA or UTEP.
The MWC could take UTEP any time they want them. UTSA would never leave an AAC with other Texas programs (UNT & Rice), to go make less money in the MWC. That would be stupid.
Yes, UTEP is of a lower trajectory for the MWN. UTEP would jump at the opportunity.
I wouldn’t be so sure now. Six months ago? Absolutely. The MWC is the new WAC. Something really bad is going to happen to it and when it’s all said and done San Jose State and perhaps Hawaii might be the last two standing. The last thing UTEP wants is to be in the exact same spot NMSU was in 2012. Forced to go independent not because it wants to but because no conference wants them and the few Western FCS schools like Montana, Montana State and Northern Arizona that could move up to FBS refuse the MWC’s offer so the conference dies. Hawaii can go independent or join the Pac-12 and SJSU might pull an Idaho and drop to FCS where they can play other California schools like Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo.
C-USA at least has FCS schools interested in joining so it can maneuver some turbulence as it’s done in the past. The Western part of the US has been consolidating non power FBS leagues since 2001. The Big West and WAC football died. The MWC will be next (unlike the WAC and Big West, I can see the MWC dying in its entirety with no basketball and Olympic sport schools in it) and the only conference left standing will be the Pac-12 which will be Oregon State and Washington State with MWC schools.
The MWC..."dying in its entirety"?
Why would it die when it can simply reload? There's no shortage of quality schools that they could reload with.
To start out with, they could add UTEP and New Mexico State. Those two are ripe for the picking, and the MWC could almost certainly pay them more than they'll get from the CUSA.
Next, they could add Montana and Montana State, which are located closer to the center of their footprint than UTEP and NMSU are. Both have quality football programs.
They could also add North and South Dakota State, either as FB-only members or for all sports. The Universities of North and South Dakota - both of which are state flagship schools - might also be considered as part of a 4-team pod.
In addition, Sacramento State or UC-Davis could be added to bolster their presence in California, and there's Weber State in Utah to consider.
The idea of the PAC losing all but Wash State & Or. State and the entire MWC moving over to the PAC is a very low probability scenario. The only way that would happen would be if the PAC were to lose 8 schools to the Big Ten and Big XII
A more likely worst case scenario for the MWC is that they might lose as many as 6 schools to the PAC. If that happens, they can add 6 schools from the list above. Their long-term chances for survival could be pretty strong, from that standpoint.
Or... perhaps such a weakened MWC is finished off by the Big West. I'm certain that Nevada and USU would find a return there more appealing than staying with the Front Rangers.
(11-13-2022 11:44 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 11:29 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 04:58 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 04:32 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: [ -> ] (11-13-2022 02:29 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking they look into Texas, UTSA or UTEP.
The MWC could take UTEP any time they want them. UTSA would never leave an AAC with other Texas programs (UNT & Rice), to go make less money in the MWC. That would be stupid.
Yes, UTEP is of a lower trajectory for the MWN. UTEP would jump at the opportunity.
I wouldn’t be so sure now. Six months ago? Absolutely. The MWC is the new WAC. Something really bad is going to happen to it and when it’s all said and done San Jose State and perhaps Hawaii might be the last two standing. The last thing UTEP wants is to be in the exact same spot NMSU was in 2012. Forced to go independent not because it wants to but because no conference wants them and the few Western FCS schools like Montana, Montana State and Northern Arizona that could move up to FBS refuse the MWC’s offer so the conference dies. Hawaii can go independent or join the Pac-12 and SJSU might pull an Idaho and drop to FCS where they can play other California schools like Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo.
C-USA at least has FCS schools interested in joining so it can maneuver some turbulence as it’s done in the past. The Western part of the US has been consolidating non power FBS leagues since 2001. The Big West and WAC football died. The MWC will be next (unlike the WAC and Big West, I can see the MWC dying in its entirety with no basketball and Olympic sport schools in it) and the only conference left standing will be the Pac-12 which will be Oregon State and Washington State with MWC schools.
The MWC..."dying in its entirety"?
Why would it die when it can simply reload? There's no shortage of quality schools that they could reload with.
To start out with, they could add UTEP and New Mexico State. Those two are ripe for the picking, and the MWC could almost certainly pay them more than they'll get from the CUSA.
Next, they could add Montana and Montana State, which are located closer to the center of their footprint than UTEP and NMSU are. Both have quality football programs.
They could also add North and South Dakota State, either as FB-only members or for all sports. The Universities of North and South Dakota - both of which are state flagship schools - might also be considered as part of a 4-team pod.
In addition, Sacramento State or UC-Davis could be added to bolster their presence in California, and there's Weber State in Utah to consider.
The idea of the PAC losing all but Wash State & Or. State and the entire MWC moving over to the PAC is a very low probability scenario. The only way that would happen would be if the PAC were to lose 8 schools to the Big Ten and Big XII
A more likely worst case scenario for the MWC is that they might lose as many as 6 schools to the PAC. If that happens, they can add 6 schools from the list above. Their long-term chances for survival could be pretty strong, from that standpoint.
The WAC in its deathbed tried some of those schools and they said no. What’s different in 2022 or 2027 or 2032 compared to 2012? Back then the WAC still had Idaho, NMSU, Louisiana Tech and UTSA and Texas State were just invited. Why would the Montana schools be interested in a MWC that hypothetically has Hawaii, San Jose State, UTEP and New Mexico State? What’s attractive in that lineup that can convince the Montana and Dakota schools say “yes, let’s give it a try”? I just don’t see it.
UTEP and NMSU can’t risk being left in a Western based conference that dies because there’s a significant shortage of FBS schools willing to move up. The Big West and WAC football are precedents of this happening before. C-USA is far from being the best option but at least it can sustain losses and have schools in the Central and Eastern time zones willing to move up. Can the MWC say the same in the Mountain and Pacific time zones?
Sixteen people (tied for the most votes) in the poll think that if SMU leaves---- Memphis will allow the AAC to invite MT.
Really? Do you actually think the TIGERS would gladly be in a league with MTSU? Wake up America!
(11-14-2022 12:18 AM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote: [ -> ]Sixteen people (tied for the most votes) in the poll think that if SMU leaves---- Memphis will allow the AAC to invite MT.
Really? Do you actually think the TIGERS would gladly be in a league with MTSU? Wake up America!
Well, SMU is going to be in the same conference with North Texas. So the idea of Memphis and MTSU being in the same conference is not that crazy.
You don't understand Tennessee politics. Things are for sure different in Texas-- but in Tenn.--- NO WAY that is happening.
A.) Memphis has a LOT of "pull" in the AAC now with the B12 three gone.
B.) And they have a lot of influence in Tennessee politics.
Want a rhyme?
"A" + "B" equals giant BLOCK on MT... as long as Memphis stays in the AAC.
(11-14-2022 12:29 AM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote: [ -> ]You don't understand Tennessee politics. Things are for sure different in Texas-- but in Tenn.--- NO WAY that is happening.
A.) Memphis has a LOT of "pull" in the AAC now with the B12 three gone.
B.) And they have a lot of influence in Tennessee politics.
Want a rhyme?
"A" + "B" equals giant BLOCK on MT... as long as Memphis stays in the AAC.
I agree. I also think MTSU would be able to block Austin Peay from joining the Conference USA in the future should a move like that occur. They may have a more difficult time blocking Chattanooga from joining as they part of the system that UTK is.