I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
(09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
How does it affect these speculations if we take Colorado's president at his word that all remaining PAC schools (at least six) will remain together—
apart from the B12?
That would seem to steer all the questions in a different direction right at step 2.
(09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
Liked the idea of inviting 4 (wvu, cincy, maybe 2 western Big12 TX schools), creating a new 4 team pod (leaving the proposed future 4 team pod plans unchanged).
(09-30-2022 02:20 PM)Gitanole Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
How does it affect these speculations if we take Colorado's president at his word that all remaining PAC schools (at least six) will remain together—apart from the B12?
That would seem to steer all the questions in a different direction right at step 2.
How do
you think that changes things? (Not disputing, genuinely asking)
(09-30-2022 02:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2022 02:20 PM)Gitanole Wrote: [ -> ]How does it affect these speculations if we take Colorado's president at his word that all remaining PAC schools (at least six) will remain together—apart from the B12?
....
How do you think that changes things? (Not disputing, genuinely asking)
Well, I outlined it in a fantasy scenario somewhere else here, but a pair of coastal conferences have the potential to pull apart the Big 12 and absorb those schools. You have a P2 and an M2.
The ACC would eventually be raided of some headliners, but it would still have ND, a conference network, and appealing east-coast markets. A re-stocked ACC can reach west as far as Rice and Houston and live on.
The PAC group of 6-8 would start expanding right away while working out a co-op with ACC/ESPN for media exposure. Time zones work in its favor for this. It can rebuild 2-by-2 to 16, favouring state schools with upside. Raiding only G5, it can claim a contiguous footprint with Texas State at the southeast corner. If it poaches the B12, its eastern front then becomes Kansas, Kansas State, OK State, Texas Tech. The league now stands at 20. No private schools, no Swiss-cheesy map.
After that, the beefed-up PAC can decide what spots to make for western private schools. It can still move to 24.
Do the media numbers support it? I have no idea. I just figure a roughed-up PAC will be resigned to making relatively little cash for a while. The priority is to re-tool the conference for the long haul, get media exposure, keep travel costs down, keep playoff access, and create interesting games. If the schools hold together through this immediate crisis, I think they can build that.
(09-30-2022 02:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2022 02:20 PM)Gitanole Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
How does it affect these speculations if we take Colorado's president at his word that all remaining PAC schools (at least six) will remain together—apart from the B12?
That would seem to steer all the questions in a different direction right at step 2.
How do you think that changes things? (Not disputing, genuinely asking)
Well Mark it keeps the B12 value a bit lower. The way I see it if the Big 12 value is incrementally higher than the ACC's it makes a better scenario for ESPN segregating the ACC by brand value. Higher value schools to the SEC lower value schools to a large B12 with a national reach.
Stop and look at it from ESPN's perspective. What is the B1G attempting to do? Become a market driven national conference.
If ESPN buys all B12 rights and picks up 4-6 PAC schools ESPN can make that conference their answer to FOX, and with better football minus 7 Big 10 programs (USC, Washington, PSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State annually).
The B12 might have Arizona State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, N.C. State, Va Tech, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake, Ga Tech, Miami, etc to stack up against all but those 7 I listed above. ESPN wins the ratings nationally with those and some more. It's better product and much more competitive.
With brands in the SEC ESPN dwarfs the 7 FOX annual brands, and SEC run makers (those from the middle who make runs) are deeper than B10 run makers.
If the B12 remains a lower paid conference after OU / UT depart we likely wind up with 2 conferences. At that point swiping Cincy, UCF, WVU and adding USF makes sense for the ACC, and could make sense for the B12 if they still land the PAC remnant.
(09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
Mark,
Phillips has waisted a lot of time trying to "understand" the league. The PTB that wanted to go outside the family should be really proud that they may have screwed the ACC in the name of diversity.
1) First, know that the SEC needs nothing. There is nowhere they could go to enhance their conference, Not FSU, Not Clemson, Not Carolina. ESPN is not going to waste any money trying to chase something that the SEC doesn't need.
2) the B1G has opened Pandora's box by moving to the west coast and will now have to continue westward expansion. I would expect them to eventually add Oregon & Washington. I expect Cal and Stanford to be too good for anyone and decide to play and independent schedule.
3) The Big 12 settles into becoming a 12 team conference after the jettison their eastern teams and move west.
The 4 corners schools end up in the Big 12 to end up with: Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston. Room for addition? Air Force, Colorado State?
4) the ACC absorbs all of the eastern teams currently committed to the Big 12 (West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF) and then moves into Texas/Louisiana for market (Baylor, SMU, Tulane) to move to a 20 team less than P2 league.
To recap:
B1G=18 teams
SEC=16 teams
Big 12=12 teams with a possibility to move to 14
ACC=20 teams
independent: Cal, Stanford, WSU, OSU
(09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
HokieMark,
What if the BIG decides not to add more Pac teams? I actually think it’s more likely that the BIG will not expand.
This is where I think each conference stands now:
SEC: no plan to add
BIG: considering UO/UW/Stanford
ACC: waiting for BIG’s decision. If the BIG doesn’t move, the ACC may move to add Pac schools
PAC: waiting for BIG’s and ACC’s decisions. If the BIG and the ACC don’t move, the Pac will sign the short term media deal.
B12: waiting for BIG’s and ACC’s decisions. If enough number of Pac schools leave for the BIG/ACC, the B12 would try to kill off the Pac
I think the ACC is still in the game.
(09-30-2022 04:36 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ] (09-30-2022 02:11 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: [ -> ]I'm on record as saying I think Commissioner Phillips has already made a critical mistake in not getting Cincinnati in expansion. If he had kept WVU on an island (and I use past tense even though it may not be too late), that improves his chances of getting what he wants in the future.
That said, there are a number of dominoes yet to fall which will have a huge bearing on the financial future of the ACC, IMO:
- does the Big Ten pull the trigger on more Pac-12 expansion? This could sew up late night/Friday night CFB TV (neutral for the ACC)
- if so, does the Big XII grab the "corner 4"? If so, it probably makes the Big XII "unpoachable" for the ACC (worst-case scenario?).
- does ESPN get a portion of the Big XII and/or Pac-10 (if it still exists), or are they shut out? If ESPN ends up being shut out (possible), it makes the ACC inventory suddenly more valuable, IMO (best case scenario?).
- if ESPN does get a chunk of the Big XII, how cheaply do they get it? They would be less interested in working with the ACC if they have an alternative - especially a cheap one (very bad for the ACC).
Thoughts? I'm probably missing and/or oversimplifying here.
HokieMark,
What if the BIG decides not to add more Pac teams? I actually think it’s more likely that the BIG will not expand.
This is where I think each conference stands now:
SEC: no plan to add
BIG: considering UO/UW/Stanford
ACC: waiting for BIG’s decision. If the BIG doesn’t move, the ACC may move to add Pac schools
PAC: waiting for BIG’s and ACC’s decisions. If the BIG and the ACC don’t move, the Pac will sign the short term media deal.
B12: waiting for BIG’s and ACC’s decisions. If enough number of Pac schools leave for the BIG/ACC, the B12 would try to kill off the Pac
I think the ACC is still in the game.
I think the ACC should definitely be kicking the tires with some of these PAC and B12 schools to become a clear 3rd best conference.
Rumblings are ESPN offered a USC/UCLA-less PAC $16 million per school a year. Obviously the PAC still wants around $30 mill.
But that number is low enough to get Oregon, UW, and Stanford to start looking at any and every other power conference as a viable option
I really hope the ACC does not start expanding west of Notre Dame. I would add WVU in a heartbeat, but after that there is no other clear cut expansion candidates. Both Cinci and UConn are intriguing and I would welcome either one if the league decides to add them, but besides those 2 I don’t see the appeal of creating some sort of western block for a conference primarily in the eastern time zone.
I just got back from my third extensive trip to the Four Corners area. Cultural and social integration of Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado are probably impossible. If folks think Syracuse and Clemson in the same house is difficult adding of those four is an order of magnitude more difficult. There are SOME commonalities between Oregon, WSU, OSU, and perhaps Stanford but that's where it ends.
I think the ACC needs to make a package offer to Nebraska. They can't compete in the Big 10 and have no future there. The ACC needs to get into Texas.
I think this is the best and most viable ACC without SEC horsetrading:
ACC West - Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Ok State, TCU (That's Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, Quad Cities, KC, Ok City, and DFW markets)
ACC South - Houston, GT, Miami, FSU, Clemson (Adds Houston area markets)
ACC North - Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, and Duke
ACC East - VT, UVa, WF, UNC, NC State
The SEC can benefit from Colorado and Arizona State going to 18 and could absorb Utah and UA - no money in those last two, but always a late night SEC game.
SEC Mountains - ASU, Arizona, Utah, Texas, OU
SEC West - TAMU, Mizzou, LSU, Ark, Colorado
SEC South - TN, Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, Vandy
SEC East - KY, UGa, SC, Auburn, UF
The B10 can then wipe out the rest of the P12.
B10 West - USC, UCLA, Cal, Wash, ND
B10 Pick a name - Stanford, Oregon, Minn, Iowa, Ill
B10 East - Rutgers, PSU, MD, Ohio State, Indiana
B10 Lakes - Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, NW, MSU
(10-02-2022 03:24 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: [ -> ]I think the ACC needs to make a package offer to Nebraska. They can't compete in the Big 10 and have no future there. The ACC needs to get into Texas.
I think this is the best and most viable ACC without SEC horsetrading:
ACC West - Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Ok State, TCU (That's Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, Quad Cities, KC, Ok City, and DFW markets)
ACC South - Houston, GT, Miami, FSU, Clemson (Adds Houston area markets)
ACC North - Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, and Duke
ACC East - VT, UVa, WF, UNC, NC State
The SEC can benefit from Colorado and Arizona State going to 18 and could absorb Utah and UA - no money in those last two, but always a late night SEC game.
SEC Mountains - ASU, Arizona, Utah, Texas, OU
SEC West - TAMU, Mizzou, LSU, Ark, Colorado
SEC South - TN, Bama, Ole Miss, MSU, Vandy
SEC East - KY, UGa, SC, Auburn, UF
The B10 can then wipe out the rest of the P12.
B10 West - USC, UCLA, Cal, Wash, ND
B10 Pick a name - Stanford, Oregon, Minn, Iowa, Ill
B10 East - Rutgers, PSU, MD, Ohio State, Indiana
B10 Lakes - Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, NW, MSU
Nebraska is likely not leaving the B1G, especially after adding access to California. BUT if they were the only league would be the SEC. They actually would fit with the SEC.
Also, while not huge the ISU add would give the Des Moines-Ames market, bigger than the Quad Cities market.
(09-30-2022 03:26 PM)green Wrote: [ -> ]
Talk about a permanent cure for insomnia. If I find I can’t sleep I just turn on Big 10 football or basketball
It’s just…..
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/xUPGcm3irC17U1FgMo/giphy.gif)
In the OP reference was made that it was too late on Cincinnati.
I agree that it is too late for any Big 12 team. ESPN and FOX have already decided how they would divvy up the Big 12. Those plans were finalized while Phillips was trying to decide on a Country Club in Charlotte.
That leaves Notre Dame, UConn and what ever schools are left in the AAC, and some unlikely PAC targets as ACC expansion hopefuls.
Because the ACC can't get the whiz bang football school everyone has dreamed of, it would be important to grab two schools that actually "fit" the core ACC profile, so I'll nominate USF and Tulane.
(12-28-2022 01:25 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]In the OP reference was made that it was too late on Cincinnati.
I agree that it is too late for any Big 12 team. ESPN and FOX have already decided how they would divvy up the Big 12. Those plans were finalized while Phillips was trying to decide on a Country Club in Charlotte.
That leaves Notre Dame, UConn and what ever schools are left in the AAC, and some unlikely PAC targets as ACC expansion hopefuls.
Because the ACC can't get the whiz bang football school everyone has dreamed of, it would be important to grab two schools that actually "fit" the core ACC profile, so I'll nominate USF and Tulane.
You think too small!
Fordham (Yankee Stadium/MSG for big games)
Villanova (soccer stadium or New Veterans if/when Temple moves on-campus)
South Florida (on-campus stadium)
SMU (influx of NIL money)
Tulane and Rice contingency plan.
(12-28-2022 01:25 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]In the OP reference was made that it was too late on Cincinnati.
I agree that it is too late for any Big 12 team. ESPN and FOX have already decided how they would divvy up the Big 12. Those plans were finalized while Phillips was trying to decide on a Country Club in Charlotte.
That leaves Notre Dame, UConn and what ever schools are left in the AAC, and some unlikely PAC targets as ACC expansion hopefuls.
Because the ACC can't get the whiz bang football school everyone has dreamed of, it would be important to grab two schools that actually "fit" the core ACC profile, so I'll nominate USF and Tulane.
https://twitter.com/ryanscjones/status/5...9907937282
SHIRLY YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS
(12-28-2022 03:20 PM)green Wrote: [ -> ] (12-28-2022 01:25 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]In the OP reference was made that it was too late on Cincinnati.
I agree that it is too late for any Big 12 team. ESPN and FOX have already decided how they would divvy up the Big 12. Those plans were finalized while Phillips was trying to decide on a Country Club in Charlotte.
That leaves Notre Dame, UConn and what ever schools are left in the AAC, and some unlikely PAC targets as ACC expansion hopefuls.
Because the ACC can't get the whiz bang football school everyone has dreamed of, it would be important to grab two schools that actually "fit" the core ACC profile, so I'll nominate USF and Tulane.
https://twitter.com/ryanscjones/status/5...9907937282
SHIRLY YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS
That's about the same size as Wake Forest.