(09-15-2022 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 11:45 AM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-14-2022 08:48 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote: [ -> ]I'm at the same event Ross is at, and am talking to many of the same ADs, and he's exactly right. My story goes up tomorrow...but ADs today saw a lot of data to suggest that 1) breaking football away from the NCAA is going to be pretty expensive and 2) there is no guarantee that it will deliver better....or at least faster....results.
Once people started doing the real math behind what it would take...it has become much less attractive.
Which would indicate when it happens, basketball goes too. That's where the extra money is.
A myth.
A fact. You obviously aren't aware of how the NCAA funds itself.
If the football side comes up with a plan to pay most of the freight and keep the basketball side's expenses low it might work, but if the football folks think basketball will have to pony up as much or more...forget it. It might be better to stay with the devil that you know as opposed to joining a group with less depth and similar level of expense.
(09-15-2022 04:03 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:49 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:00 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]To be sure, it's a mix.
No one would care about the NCAA Tournament if it's a bunch of games like St. Peter's playing another midmajor school in the first round.
The reason why people paid attention is because they beat Kentucky in the first round and it went from there.
A tournament consisting only Goliaths might not be worth more than the current mix of a tournament with both Davids and Goliaths. However, it's certainly the case that a tournament consisting only Goliaths is worth more than a tournament full of Davids. The giant killers in the NCAA Tournament only exist because there are giants to slay in the first place.
Correct - that is what makes the NCAA Tournament a unique and valuable property. Teams with large followings (and haters) mixed with smaller schools.
Gambling and brackets are a big part of what makes it valuable.
North Carolina State was a huge, heavily followed "underdog" in 1983. The underdogs don't have to be tiny schools in HS gyms. UNCC and Western Kentucky have been underdogs making the final 4. So was Butler. And they weren't in the bottom 10 conferences. Underdog is all relative.
Nobody would even notice if the bottom 10 conferences moved to Division II. The tournament was popular when there were 250 teams, not 350 like now.
The Gambling and brackets are enhanced by the little guys being present.
And yes, many people would notice if the 10 bottom conferences went to DII. Just because YOU don't care, doesn't mean than anyone else feels the same.
According to this list, the bottom 10 as of 4/5/22 were:
23 Ohio Valley 0.463 Murray St (31-3)
24 America East 0.461 Vermont (28-6)
25 Atlantic Sun 0.460 Bellarmine (20-13)
26 Big South 0.455 Winthrop (23-9)
27 Horizon League 0.449 Oakland (20-12)
28 Patriot 0.445 Colgate (23-12)
29 Northeast 0.443 Wagner (22-7)
30 MEAC 0.432 Norfolk St (24-7)
31 Southland 0.431 Nicholls St (21-12)
32 SWAC 0.425 TX Southern (19-13)
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...ng-by-conf
Murray St was pretty damn good last year, they were a 7 seed and won their first game. In the past 5 years, they in fact have a 2-3 record. But after the Ohio Valley Conference, there is a pretty significant dropoff. So, maybe we could just cut out the bottom 9 rather than bottom 10 conferences.
St Peters is a member of the MAAC, which was ranked #13 out of the 32 d1 conferences last year fyi.
Vermont is also a strong program. They just happen to have a stranglehold on their conference and have a lower ceiling than some other programs.
(09-15-2022 04:22 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 11:45 AM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-14-2022 08:48 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote: [ -> ]I'm at the same event Ross is at, and am talking to many of the same ADs, and he's exactly right. My story goes up tomorrow...but ADs today saw a lot of data to suggest that 1) breaking football away from the NCAA is going to be pretty expensive and 2) there is no guarantee that it will deliver better....or at least faster....results.
Once people started doing the real math behind what it would take...it has become much less attractive.
Which would indicate when it happens, basketball goes too. That's where the extra money is.
A myth.
A fact. You obviously aren't aware of how the NCAA funds itself.
If the football side comes up with a plan to pay most of the freight and keep the basketball side's expenses low it might work, but if the football folks think basketball will have to pony up as much or more...forget it. It might be better to stay with the devil that you know as opposed to joining a group with less depth and similar level of expense.
And why would the basketball powers (some without P5 football at all, or where football is second fiddle) leave their fate in the hands of a football focused organization?
Always remember that its a lot easier to point a finger at what someone else is doing wrong than to make up the rules and police them. NCAA has a purpose to take the heat for everything and shield these schools from responsibility
I think the proof in the pudding of this momentum shift is the fact that the SEC commissioner leads the transformation committee. Sankey leads it because he doesn't want the SEC to leave the NCAA; he wants the SEC to control and dictate to the NCAA.
(09-15-2022 04:07 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:49 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]Correct - that is what makes the NCAA Tournament a unique and valuable property. Teams with large followings (and haters) mixed with smaller schools.
Gambling and brackets are a big part of what makes it valuable.
North Carolina State was a huge, heavily followed "underdog" in 1983. The underdogs don't have to be tiny schools in HS gyms. UNCC and Western Kentucky have been underdogs making the final 4. So was Butler. And they weren't in the bottom 10 conferences. Underdog is all relative.
Nobody would even notice if the bottom 10 conferences moved to Division II. The tournament was popular when there were 250 teams, not 350 like now.
The Gambling and brackets are enhanced by the little guys being present.
And yes, many people would notice if the 10 bottom conferences went to DII. Just because YOU don't care, doesn't mean than anyone else feels the same.
Alright, the 1000 fans each of those 100 schools have would notice.
The blowouts that usually happen with those conference detract from the interest in the early rounds.
I disagree, it's the blowouts that make runs like St Peters that much more interesting.
I do strongly agree that there's a happy medium between just the P5 and all 32 d1 conferences/350 d1 teams participating, though. I opined above that maybe we use the Ohio Valley as the cutoff, another option could be to just arbitrarily use the Ivy as the cutoff (20th last year, not sure of where they typically rank).
I don't support using
conference rank as a cutoff. Sometimes a single team in an otherwise weak conference deserves a shot more than the relatively weak champion of a stronger overall conference. I recommend that the 16 highest ranked
teams from among the 32 conference champions should get an automatic bid. They will almost always be ranked among the Top 100 teams in D-I.
(09-15-2022 05:46 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the proof in the pudding of this momentum shift is the fact that the SEC commissioner leads the transformation committee. Sankey leads it because he doesn't want the SEC to leave the NCAA; he wants the SEC to control and dictate to the NCAA.
Hogwash! The SEC will do what it wishes with or without the NCAA as it pertains to the monetization of revenue sports. The NCAA made Sankey the chair likely as a means of trying to restrain him. And until the ruling on pay for play by the SCOTUS comes through the NCAA limps on. Should that ruling be pro athlete, as expected, the NCAA is essentially dead, and Sankey and others have no need to have blood on their hands. So, they wait.
Sankey sees no clear pathway to an independent hoop's championship until the current NCAA championship contract is up. At that point, should the NCAA survive the pay for play ruling, starting your own tourney without many legal hang-ups is quite doable. The interim allows schools which are likely to breakaway time to get a plan in place to manage a new league, gives the same schools time to prepare a more palatable solution for non-revenue sports, and it allows those who may wish to lead a breakaway time to step down from NCAA positions (if need be) before doing so. Since football is autonomous the need to breakaway isn't there until hoops can be monetized as well. And should that happen mid major hoops only programs are sure to be included. It won't be limited to 60 to 72 schools.
(09-15-2022 04:31 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 04:22 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 11:45 AM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]Which would indicate when it happens, basketball goes too. That's where the extra money is.
A myth.
A fact. You obviously aren't aware of how the NCAA funds itself.
If the football side comes up with a plan to pay most of the freight and keep the basketball side's expenses low it might work, but if the football folks think basketball will have to pony up as much or more...forget it. It might be better to stay with the devil that you know as opposed to joining a group with less depth and similar level of expense.
And why would the basketball powers (some without P5 football at all, or where football is second fiddle) leave their fate in the hands of a football focused organization?
Because the football leagues are making the decisions?
The A-10 and MVC and even the Big East would be along for the ride.
(09-15-2022 05:46 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the proof in the pudding of this momentum shift is the fact that the SEC commissioner leads the transformation committee. Sankey leads it because he doesn't want the SEC to leave the NCAA; he wants the SEC to control and dictate to the NCAA.
Read what Sankey said. He was clearly ready to leave if things didn't satisfy him.
(09-15-2022 04:29 PM)e-parade Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 04:03 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:49 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 12:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]Correct - that is what makes the NCAA Tournament a unique and valuable property. Teams with large followings (and haters) mixed with smaller schools.
Gambling and brackets are a big part of what makes it valuable.
North Carolina State was a huge, heavily followed "underdog" in 1983. The underdogs don't have to be tiny schools in HS gyms. UNCC and Western Kentucky have been underdogs making the final 4. So was Butler. And they weren't in the bottom 10 conferences. Underdog is all relative.
Nobody would even notice if the bottom 10 conferences moved to Division II. The tournament was popular when there were 250 teams, not 350 like now.
The Gambling and brackets are enhanced by the little guys being present.
And yes, many people would notice if the 10 bottom conferences went to DII. Just because YOU don't care, doesn't mean than anyone else feels the same.
According to this list, the bottom 10 as of 4/5/22 were:
23 Ohio Valley 0.463 Murray St (31-3)
24 America East 0.461 Vermont (28-6)
25 Atlantic Sun 0.460 Bellarmine (20-13)
26 Big South 0.455 Winthrop (23-9)
27 Horizon League 0.449 Oakland (20-12)
28 Patriot 0.445 Colgate (23-12)
29 Northeast 0.443 Wagner (22-7)
30 MEAC 0.432 Norfolk St (24-7)
31 Southland 0.431 Nicholls St (21-12)
32 SWAC 0.425 TX Southern (19-13)
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...ng-by-conf
Murray St was pretty damn good last year, they were a 7 seed and won their first game. In the past 5 years, they in fact have a 2-3 record. But after the Ohio Valley Conference, there is a pretty significant dropoff. So, maybe we could just cut out the bottom 9 rather than bottom 10 conferences.
St Peters is a member of the MAAC, which was ranked #13 out of the 32 d1 conferences last year fyi.
Vermont is also a strong program. They just happen to have a stranglehold on their conference and have a lower ceiling than some other programs.
Murray St and Vermont could choose to join a more-competitive conference if only the top 15/20/25/whatever Conferences got auto bids. And ofc Murray St would have been an at large last year as a 7 seed, rendering an auto-bid unnecessary.
(09-15-2022 05:21 PM)balanced_view Wrote: [ -> ]Always remember that its a lot easier to point a finger at what someone else is doing wrong than to make up the rules and police them. NCAA has a purpose to take the heat for everything and shield these schools from responsibility
So you're saying the NCAA is the Goodell-bot of College Sports?
https://southpark.cc.com/video-clips/nd2...oodell-bot
(09-15-2022 07:13 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (09-15-2022 05:46 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I think the proof in the pudding of this momentum shift is the fact that the SEC commissioner leads the transformation committee. Sankey leads it because he doesn't want the SEC to leave the NCAA; he wants the SEC to control and dictate to the NCAA.
Read what Sankey said. He was clearly ready to leave if things didn't satisfy him.
Sankey is currently posturing in order to get us (P2, A5, d1, or some combo thereof) the best possible deal. Maybe that deal ends up remaining affiliated in some fashion with the NCAA, maybe that deal ends up leading us down the "new Organization" rabbit hole. I don't even know if he has a preference on which one it is, if the d1/football powers run the entire show, make the rules, and split all of the profits then the question will just come down to whether it's cheaper to pay XX $ to the NCAA or to our own Breakaway Governing Body That is Not the NCAA, aka the BGBTNN.
As an aside, the NCAA has a very strong incentive to work things out with CFB powers b/c that it makes it less likely that they'll end up creating their own version of the Tournament after breaking away in football.
