https://painttouches.com/2022/08/26/what...content=TV
For those that are unaware of Paint Touches, it is a fantastic MU blog with (IMO) very insightful college basketball pieces that often go beyond our (MU) program. They went through a very detailed article today about what the next Big East TV deal could be worth and to whom. Great read to anyone of interest.
I think there are too many unknowns at present to accurately predict what the next BE TV deal will end up looking like, but I am confident we will remain with FOX. They have been a great partner to conference since 2013, and I know the BE values their promotion and access to carry all of our games to a national audience (and not through a streaming service).
FTR, PT predicts a seven-year deal worth $75-$80 million annually ($6.8-$7.2 million annually per team - for eleven programs).
With the conference getting a share (which I presume happens here), the range is $6.25-6.67M per school.
That would put UCONN to making about the same as they would have in the AAC for just their basketball. While it's still tough being independent for football, that plus all the history with the Big East probably makes it worth it.
They should put in a good word for us for a couple of years from now when hopefully Coach Martin has gotten the ball rolling again.
I certainly hope they stay with Fox, as well, since the Big East is now basically a fixture on Fox and FS1. I'm not fully confident there won't be rough waters ahead, as the Big Ten might help sweeten the pot with further expansion (and if any of those programs add good hoops, that's something to worry about if you're the Big East), and maybe you get something good from the Big XII or PAC that creates some volume challenges.
I just hope the conference continues to play at a high level. It's not entirely fair to have called the Big East the last eight or nine years the "Villanova & Friends Conference," but, it's not entirely too far off, either. I still think there will be some expansion from them soon. If not Gonzaga, they probably finally bring in Saint Louis or Dayton at the very least. Don't sleep on Davidson.
Pretty interesting (and good) analysis, but disagree on the conclusion. I think the MLS comp is a great one, but he's way too heavily applying the "streaming premium" to their current contract. There is no chance that a league whose popularity if steady or growing is signing a contract today for the same value of its contract from 2014. So I would bump that projection up for Big East above the $100M mark.
Interesting article. I would personally be happy if the Big East could come close to doubling the value of its current deal. So fingers crossed.
A very interesting read. I enjoyed (though much of it confused this simpleton).
I enjoy B1G and Big East basketball so I'm glad the new B1G contract is similar to the previous contract in number of games carried. Should bode well for the Big East in getting an extension with Fox and FS1.
Before COVID, before UT/OU were added to the SEC, and before UCLA/USC were invited to the Big Ten, after UConn was invited into the Big East, it was reported by a number of different reporters that the Big East was looking at $6-$8 million per year with the new configuration. Obviously, things have changed since then, so it will be fascinating to see what the next TV deal ends up looking like. Having every single conference game available on national television is of huge value to the conference. As more and more content gets put on streaming (whether through ESPN+, Peacock, Amazon, Apple TV, etc.), I do wonder if a split (between mainstream television and streaming) of the TV rights is inevitable.
FOX is clearly focused on the Big Ten right now, and rightfully so. Once the dust settles, and they focus on this next contract, it will be interesting to see if they instruct the Big East and Gonzaga to join together. Geography has been abundantly tossed out the window, and with the higher payouts annually, travel and expense to the student-athletes and fans is redundant. Everything is about TV and viewership (not to mention acquiring the top brands). In theory, if Gonzaga got the Big East TV deal to $8-$10 million annually (or more, depending on additional members), I do not see how either side chooses not to commit in order to remain financially and structurally competitive.
Before UCLA/USC, I would have said that Gonzaga to the Big East was more fan fiction than realistic. However, thanks to the B1G (and FOX), it also seems more like an inevitability. We shall see.
Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
The New Big East does have a winning record versus the P5 but has relied on Villanova for deep runs in the tournament. Bringing back UConn to the conference was a great move going forward and will hopefully help in the next contract. The conference has added some good coaches recently in Sean Miller, Thad Matta and Shaka Smart.
I wonder if the Big East/Big Ten Gavitt Games challenge will continue going forward. That series is currently tied at 24-24.
Whatever a network is willing to pay them.
(08-27-2022 08:36 AM)Owls9878 Wrote: [ -> ]Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
The "post-Jay Wright Villanova" is one of various major questions the Big East is facing — with some of those questions potentially concerning.
The others are as follows:
* If UConn eventually leaves for an all-sports league (which would seemingly be at least a 50-50 chance given what is unfolding with the P5) ... ?
* Can either St. John's or Georgetown become nationally relevant again? Having both as mediocre as they have been for seemingly many years now ... not good for the league.
* Can DePaul ever be at least respectable? I have followed/cheered for the Blue Demon program since 1987 and the lack of competitiveness continues to be a head-scratcher — and a negative for the BE.
* If we see three (or even four) super conferences of 20 to 24 members each, how does the Big East counter with the sheer numbers needed for both regular season TV visibility and NCAA tourney selections? This is where the Gonzaga to the BE element could come into play.
The Big East could be facing a major crossroads in the next few years, as the fast-changing dynamics in big-time all-sport conferences could adversely affect the league. My hope is that the BE finds a way to stay relevant. But that could be a challenge.
Time will tell.
Is anyone else going to bid on the media rights? If ESPN doesn’t anything what stops Fox from saying they aren’t putting any more money on the table?
(08-26-2022 03:07 PM)e-parade Wrote: [ -> ]That would put UCONN to making about the same as they would have in the AAC for just their basketball. While it's still tough being independent for football, that plus all the history with the Big East probably makes it worth it.
They should put in a good word for us for a couple of years from now when hopefully Coach Martin has gotten the ball rolling again.
Big East has significant NCAAT revenue though which offsets the CFP money in the ACC.
Travel costs for UConn are significantly less in BE. Also ticket sales are better.
(08-27-2022 10:04 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ] (08-27-2022 08:36 AM)Owls9878 Wrote: [ -> ]Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
The "post-Jay Wright Villanova" is one of various major questions the Big East is facing — with some of those questions potentially concerning.
The others are as follows:
* If UConn eventually leaves for an all-sports league (which would seemingly be at least a 50-50 chance given what is unfolding with the P5) ... ?
* Can either St. John's or Georgetown become nationally relevant again? Having both as mediocre as they have been for seemingly many years now ... not good for the league.
* Can DePaul ever be at least respectable? I have followed/cheered for the Blue Demon program since 1987 and the lack of competitiveness continues to be a head-scratcher — and a negative for the BE.
* If we see three (or even four) super conferences of 20 to 24 members each, how does the Big East counter with the sheer numbers needed for both regular season TV visibility and NCAA tourney selections? This is where the Gonzaga to the BE element could come into play.
The Big East could be facing a major crossroads in the next few years, as the fast-changing dynamics in big-time all-sport conferences could adversely affect the league. My hope is that the BE finds a way to stay relevant. But that could be a challenge.
Time will tell.
If movement happens in the ACC, for whatever reason, what are the chances, do you think, that ND joins the BE, and how do you think it will affect the BE going forward?
(08-27-2022 12:14 PM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]Is anyone else going to bid on the media rights? If ESPN doesn’t anything what stops Fox from saying they aren’t putting any more money on the table?
If FOX does not retaining the BE, then that's a 130+ game inventory hole in winter. They can't fill it with ACC, SEC or B10 (locked up). FOX also already denied B12 an early extension. The PAC is in a freefall, especially with instability of membership long-term. Most importantly, both the B12 and P12 will cost SIGNIFICANTLY more, even today with membership changes.
FOX isn't going to after the A10 as a cheap replacement either, because the ratings are significantly different. Another wild card to help boost the value is UConn Women's Hoops, which outperforms many Men's P6 programs.
I think there would still be a strong demand from FOX to retain. ESPN also just had a ton of winter programming open up (although the BE would prefer to stay with FOX).
(08-27-2022 01:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: [ -> ] (08-27-2022 10:04 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ] (08-27-2022 08:36 AM)Owls9878 Wrote: [ -> ]Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
The "post-Jay Wright Villanova" is one of various major questions the Big East is facing — with some of those questions potentially concerning.
The others are as follows:
* If UConn eventually leaves for an all-sports league (which would seemingly be at least a 50-50 chance given what is unfolding with the P5) ... ?
* Can either St. John's or Georgetown become nationally relevant again? Having both as mediocre as they have been for seemingly many years now ... not good for the league.
* Can DePaul ever be at least respectable? I have followed/cheered for the Blue Demon program since 1987 and the lack of competitiveness continues to be a head-scratcher — and a negative for the BE.
* If we see three (or even four) super conferences of 20 to 24 members each, how does the Big East counter with the sheer numbers needed for both regular season TV visibility and NCAA tourney selections? This is where the Gonzaga to the BE element could come into play.
The Big East could be facing a major crossroads in the next few years, as the fast-changing dynamics in big-time all-sport conferences could adversely affect the league. My hope is that the BE finds a way to stay relevant. But that could be a challenge.
Time will tell.
If movement happens in the ACC, for whatever reason, what are the chances, do you think, that ND joins the BE, and how do you think it will affect the BE going forward?
Gonzaga and UConn will carry the BigEast just fine if Villanova has a dropoff. And I'd say that there's a good chance that ND moves all sports except football to the BigEast if something happens to the ACC in the next few years.
(08-27-2022 01:51 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: [ -> ] (08-27-2022 10:04 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ] (08-27-2022 08:36 AM)Owls9878 Wrote: [ -> ]Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
The "post-Jay Wright Villanova" is one of various major questions the Big East is facing — with some of those questions potentially concerning.
The others are as follows:
* If UConn eventually leaves for an all-sports league (which would seemingly be at least a 50-50 chance given what is unfolding with the P5) ... ?
* Can either St. John's or Georgetown become nationally relevant again? Having both as mediocre as they have been for seemingly many years now ... not good for the league.
* Can DePaul ever be at least respectable? I have followed/cheered for the Blue Demon program since 1987 and the lack of competitiveness continues to be a head-scratcher — and a negative for the BE.
* If we see three (or even four) super conferences of 20 to 24 members each, how does the Big East counter with the sheer numbers needed for both regular season TV visibility and NCAA tourney selections? This is where the Gonzaga to the BE element could come into play.
The Big East could be facing a major crossroads in the next few years, as the fast-changing dynamics in big-time all-sport conferences could adversely affect the league. My hope is that the BE finds a way to stay relevant. But that could be a challenge.
Time will tell.
If movement happens in the ACC, for whatever reason, what are the chances, do you think, that ND joins the BE, and how do you think it will affect the BE going forward?
I could anticipate the following IF we see three to four all-sports leagues of 20 to 24 programs each:
* UConn eventually will leave the Big East for a high-profile all-sports league (perhaps one that does not exist today as it will then)
* Notre Dame will stay independent in football and place all other sports in the Big East (a move I would strongly like to see)
* The Big East (still at 11 with the loss of UConn and addition of Notre dame) will add Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Dayton, and at least one other West program and one other East program to get to 16.
(08-27-2022 08:36 AM)Owls9878 Wrote: [ -> ]Villanova has carried the Big East IMO pretty much since the split from the football schools. With Jay Wright leaving, I’m extremely skeptical Villanova continuing its sustained success. If Nova falls back to the pack, that’s going to adversely impact ratings and their next contract. A shame the Big East couldn’t get the contract extended prior to Wright retiring.
They need to add football at some point if they want to stay in the game IMO.