Should the ACC GOR truly prove to be unbreakable, why should the SEC wait to address it's needs of a second school in Florida, or adding a top basketball brand?
Simply put it shouldn't. And here's why. If Florida State and Miami are truly placed in the deep freeze until 2036 why not take a school which would be a decade away and accelerate its value exponentially. While programs with recognition wither under 40 million dollar deficits, South Florida could provide the SEC with a second game each week involving a Florida school. With SEC payouts they could upgrade facilities, step up recruiting and within 5 years began emerging as the Sunshine state's #2 brand. Academically speaking, their trajectory has them on pace to bring serious consideration for AAU membership within a decade. And Tampa St.Pete would nicely pair with UF giving the SEC both a North Florida presence and a Mid Florida presence on the Gulf which opens tremendous marketing possibilities for SEC schools around that coastline. It's a golden opportunity in a time when ACC properties are on lockdown.
In the 14 years until ACC schools are available South Florida could really blossom in the SEC athletically as they would only share the financial largess of one other Florida school, U of F.
Kansas could join old friends and be that second historic flagship hoops program. They too, while the ACC is on ice, could really boost their whole sports program and re-establish some shine on a long history of excellence.
Face it, anyone not in the SEC or Big 10 will be significantly lagging. And anyone in the ACC will have no upward mobility. IMO, such a situation would make USF and Kansas prime properties. I think maybe Birmingham should look at such an opportunity. Why not rework an established brand and home grow another?
That’s an interesting angle. Imagine what UCF or USF could do with SEC money.
You picked USF, but the NFL-less Orlando market might make for a better project school.
I can't tell if you're trolling or not.
(07-22-2022 04:17 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ]I can't tell if you're trolling or not.
JR has previously proposed, more than once, adding Kansas along with UNC, Duke, and UVA to have, with Kentucky, the four BB bluebloods with the most victories all-time (and #5 is more than 100 victories behind #4 Duke). He has also named USF as a Florida program with potential and worthy of development by a major conference. Don't think he's trolling.
I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036. That's 14 prime earning years. Kansas is not under a GOR after 2024. Duke, UNC, and Virginia are. South Florida can join for a song. UCF now has a deeper obligation. It's just a practical option.
The SEC has a problem. Every member wants games in Florida. With 15 other schools and only UF it's a scheduling nightmare. A second school simply pays. People wonder if the SEC would take both Miami and FSU if the GOR could be broken. Well, yes! A 3 Florida SEC could permit a 5 to one ratio in scheduling games in Florida.
If the SEC moved to 18 with USF and Kansas, we would still have 6 slots left in 2034 which could be offered for ACC schools. In the meantime, we sew up Mizzou's rival and top hoops brand Kansas, pick up a second rotation in a nice market with unique advantages for the SEC in terms of travel opportunities and a safe bet for a solid academic add. We have zero liability in these moves.
That is intriguing, JR. Would you recommend a 3-7-7, 5-4-4-4, or some other scheduling format with 18 teams? Just playing around, 3-7-7 could look something like this:
Kansas - Missouri, Oklahoma, Kentucky
Oklahoma - Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Texas - Oklahoma, TAMU, Arkansas
TAMU - Texas, LSU, Mississippi State
Missouri - Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky
Arkansas - Mississippi State, Texas, LSU
LSU - TAMU, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Ole Miss - LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Mississippi State - TAMU, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Alabama - Auburn, Tennessee, South Florida
Auburn - Alabama, Georgia, Florida
Vanderbilt - Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Florida
Tennessee- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Kentucky - Kansas, Missouri, Tennessee
Georgia- Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
South Carolina - Georgia, Florida, South Florida
Florida - Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn
South Florida - Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Alabama
Some permanent rival packages are more challenging than others, but it will all pretty well even out with 7 additional rotating opponents. You could easily get every school into either the state of Texas or Florida for an away game every year, which would be huge for longterm recruiting. I like this path, especially since it is the least resistant. Like you said, there are still 6 spots left for ACC teams in 2036, and a 5-6-6-6 schedule gets everyone playing at least every three years with one open game to spare.
(07-22-2022 08:46 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote: [ -> ]That is intriguing, JR. Would you recommend a 3-7-7, 5-4-4-4, or some other scheduling format with 18 teams? Just playing around, 3-7-7 could look something like this:
Kansas - Missouri, Oklahoma, Kentucky
Oklahoma - Kansas, Texas, Missouri
Texas - Oklahoma, TAMU, Arkansas
TAMU - Texas, LSU, Mississippi State
Missouri - Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky
Arkansas - Mississippi State, Texas, LSU
LSU - TAMU, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Ole Miss - LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Mississippi State - TAMU, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Alabama - Auburn, Tennessee, South Florida
Auburn - Alabama, Georgia, Florida
Vanderbilt - Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Florida
Tennessee- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Kentucky - Kansas, Missouri, Tennessee
Georgia- Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
South Carolina - Georgia, Florida, South Florida
Florida - Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn
South Florida - Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Alabama
Some permanent rival packages are more challenging than others, but it will all pretty well even out with 7 additional rotating opponents. You could easily get every school into either the state of Texas or Florida for an away game every year, which would be huge for longterm recruiting. I like this path, especially since it is the least resistant. Like you said, there are still 6 spots left for ACC teams in 2036, and a 5-6-6-6 schedule gets everyone playing at least every three years with one open game to spare.
I'd actually prefer 3 divisions of 6 regionally grouped.
5 division games 2 rotating schools from each other division and 1 permanent rival.
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Florida, South Carolina
Conference Semis: 3 Division Champs and Best at large. This helps pay for USF. Conference Semis equal 70 million alone. Add inventory and content games and you have covered a school which could be worth much, much more later and in other ways.
(07-22-2022 04:17 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ]I can't tell if you're trolling or not.
UCF-Tampa to the $EC?
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck ...
(07-22-2022 07:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036.
JR, do you, yourself, actually believe this premise to be true, so help you God?
(07-23-2022 01:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ] (07-22-2022 07:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036.
JR, do you, yourself, actually believe this premise to be true, so help you God?
Pete, I just want the whole ACC to think hard about why adherence to the notion that the GOR helps them to somehow "survive" is pure nonsense. The SEC has other legitimate ways to accomplish its ends. They may not be the best ways but will prove efficient and practical. The question over USF is time and money. Give them a decade plus of SEC money while all other Florida schools save UofF are stuck in the 40 million range and yes with SEC branding, money and exposure they would be in fine shape. They are on a more solid trajectory for AAU status and Tampa/St.Pete is a nice market location for many business ventures SEC schools could benefit from, so it's no idle threat. Colorado is some low hanging fruit as well with much history with Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas. Toss in Texas Tech and the two Arizona schools and the SEC could build quite a new West.
Strategically we could wait out the ACC GOR and attend a fire sale of beleaguered and disadvantaged schools in 2036.
The only ones in the ACC that can save its schools
are its schools. If however they believe they can re-emerge in 14 years having lost the last years of Boomer interest and believe that the SEC and B1G schools, all now half a billion richer at least, will still be interested is foolishness. Oregon, Washington, Stanford and ND put the B1G at 20. USF, Kansas, Colorado, pick one (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Arizona State) could take the SEC to 20.
My point is real, and clear. Life will go on without the ACC, and even if the SEC and B1G remain interested fewer schools will be placed and a decade plus of less money and less coverage wouldn't leave much of value to be taken. I can see the SEC and B1G being interested in UNC, UVa, for markets and academics. I do not see future interest in but one Florida school, if any, at that point. Clemson? Nope. Va Tech and N.C. State will be unrecoverable as athletic entities. The SEC and B1G money will have literally bypassed all others in value. It will be a Super 2 world in which the best of the PAC 12 and Big 12 will have been assimilated and the ACC will have been bypassed.
Your proposal is exactly what I was talking about with changing paradigms. 15 years is a life time in college athletics. “Growing your own” in certain markets makes a lot of sense for The SEC.
Think about East Carolina in The SEC. Opens the door to The SEC in North Carolina. How long would it take The Pirates to be the top football program in NC with SEC support.
Something to think about
(07-23-2022 02:50 PM)CardinalJim Wrote: [ -> ]Your proposal is exactly what I was talking about with changing paradigms. 15 years is a life time in college athletics. “Growing your own” in certain markets makes a lot of sense for The SEC.
Think about East Carolina in The SEC. Opens the door to The SEC in North Carolina. How long would it take The Pirates to be the top football program in NC with SEC support.
Something to think about
That's true too Jim! The only knock on ECU is location and it's a minor knock. IMO, for the ACC to do nothing for 14 years is suicide. The world moves on.
(07-23-2022 02:36 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]Pete, I just want the whole ACC to think hard about why adherence to the notion that the GOR helps them to somehow "survive" is pure nonsense. The SEC has other legitimate ways to accomplish its ends. They may not be the best ways but will prove efficient and practical. The question over USF is time and money. Give them a decade plus of SEC money while all other Florida schools save UofF are stuck in the 40 million range and yes with SEC branding, money and exposure they would be in fine shape. They are on a more solid trajectory for AAU status and Tampa/St.Pete is a nice market location for many business ventures SEC schools could benefit from, so it's no idle threat. Colorado is some low hanging fruit as well with much history with Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas. Toss in Texas Tech and the two Arizona schools and the SEC could build quite a new West.
Strategically we could wait out the ACC GOR and attend a fire sale of beleaguered and disadvantaged schools in 2036.
The only ones in the ACC that can save its schools are its schools. If however they believe they can re-emerge in 14 years having lost the last years of Boomer interest and believe that the SEC and B1G schools, all now half a billion richer at least, will still be interested is foolishness. Oregon, Washington, Stanford and ND put the B1G at 20. USF, Kansas, Colorado, pick one (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Arizona State) could take the SEC to 20.
My point is real, and clear. Life will go on without the ACC, and even if the SEC and B1G remain interested fewer schools will be placed and a decade plus of less money and less coverage wouldn't leave much of value to be taken. I can see the SEC and B1G being interested in UNC, UVa, for markets and academics. I do not see future interest in but one Florida school, if any, at that point. Clemson? Nope. Va Tech and N.C. State will be unrecoverable as athletic entities. The SEC and B1G money will have literally bypassed all others in value. It will be a Super 2 world in which the best of the PAC 12 and Big 12 will have been assimilated and the ACC will have been bypassed.
JR out here playing chess while us peons stuck at checkers :)
(07-22-2022 07:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036. That's 14 prime earning years. Kansas is not under a GOR after 2024. Duke, UNC, and Virginia are. South Florida can join for a song. UCF now has a deeper obligation. It's just a practical option.
The SEC has a problem. Every member wants games in Florida. With 15 other schools and only UF it's a scheduling nightmare. A second school simply pays. People wonder if the SEC would take both Miami and FSU if the GOR could be broken. Well, yes! A 3 Florida SEC could permit a 5 to one ratio in scheduling games in Florida.
If the SEC moved to 18 with USF and Kansas, we would still have 6 slots left in 2034 which could be offered for ACC schools. In the meantime, we sew up Mizzou's rival and top hoops brand Kansas, pick up a second rotation in a nice market with unique advantages for the SEC in terms of travel opportunities and a safe bet for a solid academic add. We have zero liability in these moves.
So is you're thought is that UCF would opt to stay in the Big 12 over joining the SEC so the SEC would take USF instead? If Kansas would be able to move out of the Big 12 in this scenario so could UCF.
Or is this a play for markets? If so why not Temple for Philadelphia or Georgia State for Atlanta? Being in a big market means nothing if you don't carry it.
And there's no threat of USF moving up to a power conference unless one gets completely poached to the point they need to pull most of there members from the AAC and Sunbelt.
(07-23-2022 07:47 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ] (07-22-2022 07:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036. That's 14 prime earning years. Kansas is not under a GOR after 2024. Duke, UNC, and Virginia are. South Florida can join for a song. UCF now has a deeper obligation. It's just a practical option.
The SEC has a problem. Every member wants games in Florida. With 15 other schools and only UF it's a scheduling nightmare. A second school simply pays. People wonder if the SEC would take both Miami and FSU if the GOR could be broken. Well, yes! A 3 Florida SEC could permit a 5 to one ratio in scheduling games in Florida.
If the SEC moved to 18 with USF and Kansas, we would still have 6 slots left in 2034 which could be offered for ACC schools. In the meantime, we sew up Mizzou's rival and top hoops brand Kansas, pick up a second rotation in a nice market with unique advantages for the SEC in terms of travel opportunities and a safe bet for a solid academic add. We have zero liability in these moves.
So is you're thought is that UCF would opt to stay in the Big 12 over joining the SEC so the SEC would take USF instead? If Kansas would be able to move out of the Big 12 in this scenario so could UCF.
Or is this a play for markets? If so why not Temple for Philadelphia or Georgia State for Atlanta? Being in a big market means nothing if you don't carry it.
And there's no threat of USF moving up to a power conference unless one gets completely poached to the point they need to pull most of there members from the AAC and Sunbelt.
If the SEC decides they're going to abandon efforts to take ACC schools in the future then I would be fine with both...both being USF and UCF. They have many of the same qualities and represent large, growing alumni bases into the next generation.
It would be another decent rivalry built into the league.
(07-23-2022 11:00 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2022 07:47 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ] (07-22-2022 07:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not trolling. Remember the premise. No ACC school is available until 2036. That's 14 prime earning years. Kansas is not under a GOR after 2024. Duke, UNC, and Virginia are. South Florida can join for a song. UCF now has a deeper obligation. It's just a practical option.
The SEC has a problem. Every member wants games in Florida. With 15 other schools and only UF it's a scheduling nightmare. A second school simply pays. People wonder if the SEC would take both Miami and FSU if the GOR could be broken. Well, yes! A 3 Florida SEC could permit a 5 to one ratio in scheduling games in Florida.
If the SEC moved to 18 with USF and Kansas, we would still have 6 slots left in 2034 which could be offered for ACC schools. In the meantime, we sew up Mizzou's rival and top hoops brand Kansas, pick up a second rotation in a nice market with unique advantages for the SEC in terms of travel opportunities and a safe bet for a solid academic add. We have zero liability in these moves.
So is you're thought is that UCF would opt to stay in the Big 12 over joining the SEC so the SEC would take USF instead? If Kansas would be able to move out of the Big 12 in this scenario so could UCF.
Or is this a play for markets? If so why not Temple for Philadelphia or Georgia State for Atlanta? Being in a big market means nothing if you don't carry it.
And there's no threat of USF moving up to a power conference unless one gets completely poached to the point they need to pull most of there members from the AAC and Sunbelt.
If the SEC decides they're going to abandon efforts to take ACC schools in the future then I would be fine with both...both being USF and UCF. They have many of the same qualities and represent large, growing alumni bases into the next generation.
It would be another decent rivalry built into the league.
ATU, the SEC would consider Kansas because it is an original school in the broken apart Big 12. I seriously doubt they'd pick on a Big 12 refill. It would violate whatever etiquette which still exists in all of this. It would be tampering over the top to take Cincinnati, Houston, UCF or BYU.
It would be USF for a number of reasons, location (the SEC does not have a school on the Gulf, let alone one which reaches into central and south Florida), academics, access, and market. South Florida has the academic trajectory the SEC is looking for, and nobody would question their move up from the AAC.
We are only talking a move which becomes possible if the ACC decides to commit seppuku by sticking with the Grant of Rights.
The SEC revenue would easily groom them into a top Florida sports school. IMO this opens at most only one future Florida spot, if that.
Odds are the ACC realizes that 14 years of 40 million plus in revenue deficits dooms all but possibly 2 of them and they vote to dissolve. We'll see. The SEC has good options either way.
(07-23-2022 11:50 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]We are only talking a move which becomes possible if the ACC decides to commit seppuku by sticking with the Grant of Rights.
Fortunately, it doesn't appear we'll get that far if only because Jim Phillips is grounded more in reality than GoR intractability.
"I think it holds, but your guess is as good as mine," he said last week.
(07-24-2022 06:21 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2022 11:50 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]We are only talking a move which becomes possible if the ACC decides to commit seppuku by sticking with the Grant of Rights.
Fortunately, it doesn't appear we'll get that far if only because Jim Phillips is grounded more in reality than GoR intractability.
"I think it holds, but your guess is as good as mine," he said last week.
You would have to hope rational minds would prevail. That said, the very protectionism around hoops first mentality has not been rational. Does Tobacco Road really believe holding the gang together for the next 14 years is a good thing? I do know UNC has had back channels open. So, I would hope they realize why this time it is so very different from times past.
Make the moves now and you could conceivably place 11-12 programs, and perhaps secure the other 3-4 in a third conference. Wait and maybe UNC and UVa still get an offer for academics and markets, but truly all else would be diminished. If you don't get enough to dissolve it will likely stand as the most selfish and destructive position ever taken in realignment. I hope for your sakes ESPN coaches them out of it. We'll see.
If the stories about a simple majority being necessary to dissolve the league are true then I think the holdup could be the sentimentality among the membership that has a safe landing spot. I'm sure they don't want to doom their long time conference mates if they can help it.
Theoretically, there's about a third of the conference that doesn't really want to move because their lot wouldn't improve and they prefer the semblance of regionality they have with the ACC as opposed to a more stretched out conference of leftovers.
Perhaps there are some within the ACC that are attempting to coax them in certain directions that they don't necessarily want to go...some in the leftover league...some in a league without their close rivals but otherwise prosperous.
But you could see the simple majority take the 'nuclear option' if the rest of the members aren't interested in moving. If it's all true then there's no reason to wait on lower third of the conference very long before deciding to move.
Spitballing