The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
I've seen a lot of Kansas to the SEC, suggestions.
And so, while that's possible, I think KS goes to the B10, and OR and WA are out of luck.
Reasons - first and foremost, "regionalism" (as it's called on this forum) isn't dead, no matter what reactive people are saying. usc and ucla are a unique situation.
So the B10 is likely to still pick nearby schools to build out the conference.
And so, I think stanford it added, both to give the cal schools a travelling partner, and ND another existing rival. And for the 4th in the sw region, it could be Arizona (or even possibly AZ state) due to closeness to cal schools, the phoenix/tuscon metropolitan areas, and being a large big10 alumni region.
WA and OR are flights to a whole other section of the country. I'm not surprised that B10 told them that they were "standing pat" at this time.
for the 4th I think Kansas. It bolsters the KC metro area, and like NEB, the KS fans fill stadiums in droves, plus it's a premier bball school - don't underestimate that value in the B10. (it's part of why, while I've seen SEC fans leave off Duke when adding NC is their SEC realignment wishists, the B10 would not leave Duke out of the equation.)
It also is a nudge to the future. If the B10 adds Kansas, then if in the future, even the far future, if Missouri starts to feel like they might want to leave the SEC, knowing KS is already in the B10, could nudge them over the edge.
For the SEC, I honestly don't like any of the non-ACC choices if they are only going to 20.
I think the best choices out there for SEC, unless they want to pick something off the west coast, is Florida state, and Clemson, and the NC/VA cluster of schools.
And this is where it gets iffy. I don't think the SEC would invite Duke, and might well go for NC state, rather than NC. We can talk about Vanderbilt and Kentucky, etc, but Football just simply rules the SEC.
But who knows, they could. They could very easily add NC, NC state, Duke and VA. This shuts down Big going into the south - all that's potentially left of AAU, would be georgia tech.
And then the SEC could add FL state and Clemson at their leisure - that's 22. the next 2 for the B10 - Miami for a near-AAU, and another ND rival, and the state of florida, and georgia tech, AAU, and atlanta region.
Alternatively, the Big10 takes NC and Duke instead, and now we're scrambling for what schools SEC should take. Do they go to the west coast? Add OK state? Add another TX or FL school? Do they even take VA in that case?
So in realignment, I think SEC needs to lock down NC and Duke, otherwise, things (synergies) don't look as good.
So:
Big10:
ND
Stanford
Arizona or AZ state
Kansas
(GA tech and Miami)
SEC
NC
NC state
Duke
VA
(FL state and Clemson)
(07-10-2022 02:55 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: [ -> ]I've seen a lot of Kansas to the SEC, suggestions.
And so, while that's possible, I think KS goes to the B10, and OR and WA are out of luck.
Reasons - first and foremost, "regionalism" (as it's called on this forum) isn't dead, no matter what reactive people are saying. usc and ucla are a unique situation.
So the B10 is likely to still pick nearby schools to build out the conference.
And so, I think stanford it added, both to give the cal schools a travelling partner, and ND another existing rival. And for the 4th in the sw region, it could be Arizona (or even possibly AZ state) due to closeness to cal schools, the phoenix/tuscon metropolitan areas, and being a large big10 alumni region.
WA and OR are flights to a whole other section of the country. I'm not surprised that B10 told them that they were "standing pat" at this time.
for the 4th I think Kansas. It bolsters the KC metro area, and like NEB, the KS fans fill stadiums in droves, plus it's a premier bball school - don't underestimate that value in the B10. (it's part of why, while I've seen SEC fans leave off Duke when adding NC is their SEC realignment wishists, the B10 would not leave Duke out of the equation.)
It also is a nudge to the future. If the B10 adds Kansas, then if in the future, even the far future, if Missouri starts to feel like they might want to leave the SEC, knowing KS is already in the B10, could nudge them over the edge.
For the SEC, I honestly don't like any of the non-ACC choices if they are only going to 20.
I think the best choices out there for SEC, unless they want to pick something off the west coast, is Florida state, and Clemson, and the NC/VA cluster of schools.
And this is where it gets iffy. I don't think the SEC would invite Duke, and might well go for NC state, rather than NC. We can talk about Vanderbilt and Kentucky, etc, but Football just simply rules the SEC.
But who knows, they could. They could very easily add NC, NC state, Duke and VA. This shuts down Big going into the south - all that's potentially left of AAU, would be georgia tech.
And then the SEC could add FL state and Clemson at their leisure - that's 22. the next 2 for the B10 - Miami for a near-AAU, and another ND rival, and the state of florida, and georgia tech, AAU, and atlanta region.
Alternatively, the Big10 takes NC and Duke instead, and now we're scrambling for what schools SEC should take. Do they go to the west coast? Add OK state? Add another TX or FL school? Do they even take VA in that case?
So in realignment, I think SEC needs to lock down NC and Duke, otherwise, things (synergies) don't look as good.
So:
Big10:
ND
Stanford
Arizona or AZ state
Kansas
(GA tech and Miami)
SEC
NC
NC state
Duke
VA
(FL state and Clemson)
You missed the rationale. ESPN locks up 2/3rds plus of inventory, fills the late Saturday slot and the SEC doesn't have to worry about the ACC until UNC, a Virginia school, Clemson and FSU are ready to get out. At that point both the SEC and B1G stand at 20 and your best options would be UVa, Duke, Ga Tech and Miami. The SEC would keep ad leverage in Virginia with Tech, North Carolina with UNC, and Florida by adding FSU. Georgia has 85% of the Georgia market and carries Atlanta with a simple majority while Auburn is third.
The ability to land UNC may have shifted from having a spot for Duke to having one for NC State. We'll see in time on that one.
Assuming expansion to 20 happens without the ACC, I see the ACC adding from the B12 six schools only mainly to protect against further ACC losses down the road.
Which 6 is difficult to assess. I suspect WVU and Cincy would be two. I think Okla State is definitely one since it's likely they could maintain a game against OU. UCF should be one as well but FSU and Miami are likely to object. Two will probably come from the state of Texas but which two from Baylor, TTU, TCU, and Houston. BYU could be the 6th. But it's just a wild guess on my part.
By 2030 if the landscape is what I think it will be I suspect at least two of the following four ACC programs will give up football altogether (or play football at a much lower level than their current or projected ACC status) -
In alpha order:
Boston College
Duke
Syracuse
Wake Forest
It will be what it will be. Hope I'm wrong.
Cheers,
Neil
(07-10-2022 03:12 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 02:55 PM)Skyhawk Wrote: [ -> ]I've seen a lot of Kansas to the SEC, suggestions.
And so, while that's possible, I think KS goes to the B10, and OR and WA are out of luck.
Reasons - first and foremost, "regionalism" (as it's called on this forum) isn't dead, no matter what reactive people are saying. usc and ucla are a unique situation.
So the B10 is likely to still pick nearby schools to build out the conference.
And so, I think stanford it added, both to give the cal schools a travelling partner, and ND another existing rival. And for the 4th in the sw region, it could be Arizona (or even possibly AZ state) due to closeness to cal schools, the phoenix/tuscon metropolitan areas, and being a large big10 alumni region.
WA and OR are flights to a whole other section of the country. I'm not surprised that B10 told them that they were "standing pat" at this time.
for the 4th I think Kansas. It bolsters the KC metro area, and like NEB, the KS fans fill stadiums in droves, plus it's a premier bball school - don't underestimate that value in the B10. (it's part of why, while I've seen SEC fans leave off Duke when adding NC is their SEC realignment wishists, the B10 would not leave Duke out of the equation.)
It also is a nudge to the future. If the B10 adds Kansas, then if in the future, even the far future, if Missouri starts to feel like they might want to leave the SEC, knowing KS is already in the B10, could nudge them over the edge.
For the SEC, I honestly don't like any of the non-ACC choices if they are only going to 20.
I think the best choices out there for SEC, unless they want to pick something off the west coast, is Florida state, and Clemson, and the NC/VA cluster of schools.
And this is where it gets iffy. I don't think the SEC would invite Duke, and might well go for NC state, rather than NC. We can talk about Vanderbilt and Kentucky, etc, but Football just simply rules the SEC.
But who knows, they could. They could very easily add NC, NC state, Duke and VA. This shuts down Big going into the south - all that's potentially left of AAU, would be georgia tech.
And then the SEC could add FL state and Clemson at their leisure - that's 22. the next 2 for the B10 - Miami for a near-AAU, and another ND rival, and the state of florida, and georgia tech, AAU, and atlanta region.
Alternatively, the Big10 takes NC and Duke instead, and now we're scrambling for what schools SEC should take. Do they go to the west coast? Add OK state? Add another TX or FL school? Do they even take VA in that case?
So in realignment, I think SEC needs to lock down NC and Duke, otherwise, things (synergies) don't look as good.
So:
Big10:
ND
Stanford
Arizona or AZ state
Kansas
(GA tech and Miami)
SEC
NC
NC state
Duke
VA
(FL state and Clemson)
You missed the rationale. ESPN locks up 2/3rds plus of inventory, fills the late Saturday slot and the SEC doesn't have to worry about the ACC until UNC, a Virginia school, Clemson and FSU are ready to get out. At that point both the SEC and B1G stand at 20 and your best options would be UVa, Duke, Ga Tech and Miami. The SEC would keep ad leverage in Virginia with Tech, North Carolina with UNC, and Florida by adding FSU. Georgia has 85% of the Georgia market and carries Atlanta with a simple majority while Auburn is third.
The ability to land UNC may have shifted from having a spot for Duke to having one for NC State. We'll see in time on that one.
If that's the case, why mess around with AZ state, Utah, or Colorado? If you're flying out west anyway, grab OR and WA instead, while the B10 hesitates and is mulling its options.
And then sit and wait. Does the SEC care if Kansas is in SEC or Big10? probably not. As a chess move, it doesn't help much. And if B10 takes it, that's one less
other school on the short term, that the B10 takes.
That's the thing, the Big10 technically has a lot of options right now. But the more it exercises those options, the less chance that they will be taking ACC schools once they are more easily available.
The best move for the SEC right now is to wait. Let the other guy make a mistake and then capitalise on it.
Assuming the ACC schools (not counting ND) were off the table then ND plays the B1G against the SEC to secure the best deal it could get.
ND to B1G
B1G: ND, Oregon, Stanford, Washington
SEC: Arizona, California, Kansas & Utah
B1G takes Stanford as a preferred choice of ND and then fills out with the 2 best remaining candidates in Oregon/Washington who I simply couldn't see turning down a B1G invite for the SEC. The SEC having lost out on the ND sweepstakes and no other marquee football brands available yet still having to expand by 4 goes hunting for basketball pedigree for the inevitable clash over the basketball tournament and in the process adds 4 flagship AAU universities.
ND to the SEC:
SEC: ND, Cal, Stanford & Kansas
B1G: Colorado, Oregon, Washington & Utah
SEC takes Cal/Stanford to sell ND on the ability to have an annual presence within California, Texas & Florida/Georgia annually and grabs Kansas as the best value left.
B1G: takes the 2 best remaining brands available in Oregon/Wash, then takes Utah for their more dedicated fan base and rounds out with Colorado who gets the the last golden ticket over Arizona simply due to proximity.
(07-10-2022 03:38 PM)clpp01 Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming the ACC schools (not counting ND) were off the table then ND plays the B1G against the SEC to secure the best deal it could get.
ND to B1G
B1G: ND, Oregon, Stanford, Washington
SEC: Arizona, California, Kansas & Utah
B1G takes Stanford as a preferred choice of ND and then fills out with the 2 best remaining candidates in Oregon/Washington who I simply couldn't see turning down a B1G invite for the SEC. The SEC having lost out on the ND sweepstakes and no other marquee football brands available yet still having to expand by 4 goes hunting for basketball pedigree for the inevitable clash over the basketball tournament and in the process adds 4 flagship AAU universities.
ND to the SEC:
SEC: ND, Cal, Stanford & Kansas
B1G: Colorado, Oregon, Washington & Utah
SEC takes Cal/Stanford to sell ND on the ability to have an annual presence within California, Texas & Florida/Georgia annually and grabs Kansas as the best value left.
B1G: takes the 2 best remaining brands available in Oregon/Wash, then takes Utah for their more dedicated fan base and rounds out with Colorado who gets the the last golden ticket over Arizona simply due to proximity.
under these scenarios, ND only goes to the SEC if the rest of the ACC is already broken. The SEC would need to take several other ACC schools along.
i also strongly doubt that the SEC ever takes any California school, regardless of circumstance.
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
(07-10-2022 04:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
This is what I hope happens, but if it does the B1G and the SEC take a chance that Clemson's last decade was not a fluke, FSU and Miami both get back on track, UNC and/or NC State reach or nearly reach their full potential in football. Not to mention possible additions of WVU and Cincy to increase natural rivalries with Pitt, VT, and Louisville to make them all better than they have been over the past decade.
Are the B1G and the SEC willing to take their chances on what might happen if say the ACC is left alone until 2028 or 2029 or as far away as 2030? And more importantly is the scare of this recent realignment enough to motivate all or most of the ACC schools to invest in both football and NIL to the extent likely needed?
Again, what will be will be.
Cheers,
Neil
(07-10-2022 04:23 PM)OrangeDude Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 04:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
This is what I hope happens, but if it does the B1G and the SEC take a chance that Clemson's last decade was not a fluke, FSU and Miami both get back on track, UNC and/or NC State reach or nearly reach their full potential in football. Not to mention possible additions of WVU and Cincy to increase natural rivalries with Pitt, VT, and Louisville to make them all better than they have been over the past decade.
Are the B1G and the SEC willing to take their chances on what might happen if say the ACC is left alone until 2028 or 2029 or as far away as 2030? And more importantly is the scare of this recent realignment enough to motivate all or most of the ACC schools to invest in both football and NIL to the extent likely needed?
Again, what will be will be.
Cheers,
Neil
Even if the networks can work together to regain some chance at austerity in this current escalation, and that ACC is improved, there is huge risk on these ACC schools to not want to force a solution.
Years of revenue disadvantages has brand decay risk. These P2's will start to have conference branding advantages too, let alone revenue. The SEC already does. The perception of being in a 2nd rate conference is as bad as revenue. Retaining coaches in MBB is going to be tough if the BIG/SEC want it to be. And there is no playoff berth equalizer in basketball- everyone already has good access now.
Coaching changes decay risk. What if UNC actually just has another Kevin Ollie? Duke after K is just good? Clemson goes back to pre-Dabo? I guess FSU would have trouble getting worse.
If ESPN is sure the ACC schools won't start a civil war to get out, ESPN waits (although their leverage in splitting up the ACC to their liking only goes down as you get closer to 2036). And why would Fox be telling 2-3 schools they are BIG if they get out? That makes ESPN spend on marker share they already own. And FOX will want to split up the ACC now, before CBB revenue is unlocked, otherwise it gets tough to end the GOR early
(07-10-2022 04:23 PM)OrangeDude Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 04:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
This is what I hope happens, but if it does the B1G and the SEC take a chance that Clemson's last decade was not a fluke, FSU and Miami both get back on track, UNC and/or NC State reach or nearly reach their full potential in football. Not to mention possible additions of WVU and Cincy to increase natural rivalries with Pitt, VT, and Louisville to make them all better than they have been over the past decade.
Are the B1G and the SEC willing to take their chances on what might happen if say the ACC is left alone until 2028 or 2029 or as far away as 2030? And more importantly is the scare of this recent realignment enough to motivate all or most of the ACC schools to invest in both football and NIL to the extent likely needed?
Again, what will be will be.
Cheers,
Neil
Have you been listening to old Doris Day songs? If so I prefer Sentimental Journey. A Sentimental Journey would be an old Southern Conference reunion.
Seriously Neil if the ACC is adamantly recalcitrant then yes, the SEC waits because there is no imminent B1G threat to creep into the SE. The B1G may as well wait as well because we will be busy assimilating a lot of new faces and working out the kinks. And the monetary difference would still make the possibility viable in 5-8 years.
SEC + Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Penn St
B1G - Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St + Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
ACC + Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma St, TCU, West Virginia
XII - Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma St, TCU, West Virginia + Arizona St, Boise St, Colorado St, East Carolina, Fresno St, Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, SMU, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, Washington St
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
I suppose if you can pull this off you'll be expecting to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. That would be harder to accomplish than peace in the Middle East.
(07-10-2022 04:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
Imagine how UCF would feel being the only Big XII school left behind.
(07-10-2022 04:23 PM)OrangeDude Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 04:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
Not non-zero. It would represent a cease-fire in the FOX-ESPN battle, punting the ACC question to another time.
Comes down to whether those ACC schools would be content.
Brutal for AZ and Cal, although does Cal care.
This is what I hope happens, but if it does the B1G and the SEC take a chance that Clemson's last decade was not a fluke, FSU and Miami both get back on track, UNC and/or NC State reach or nearly reach their full potential in football. Not to mention possible additions of WVU and Cincy to increase natural rivalries with Pitt, VT, and Louisville to make them all better than they have been over the past decade.
Are the B1G and the SEC willing to take their chances on what might happen if say the ACC is left alone until 2028 or 2029 or as far away as 2030? And more importantly is the scare of this recent realignment enough to motivate all or most of the ACC schools to invest in both football and NIL to the extent likely needed?
Again, what will be will be.
Cheers,
Neil
If the ACC does elevate, wouldn't that be a win for ESPN?
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Yep, get out your maps.
The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame
Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.
Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.
It keeps the B1G out of the South.
It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.
It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.
SEC:
Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
B1G 10:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
ACC:
Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami
This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
The above alignment yields the following (MSR= 10 year Mean Sagarin Rating)
MSR......SEC...B1G...ACC...PAC/MWC
1-10..........4........4.......2
11-20........2........6.......2
21-30........6........1.......2..........1 (#29 Boise)
10yr MSR...79.....78......76.........66
5 yr MSR....78.....78......76.........66
If this went dahn, and the ACC got fair compensation that keeps everyone happy; this is the most ideal situation.
(07-11-2022 01:38 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote: [ -> ]If this went dahn, and the ACC got fair compensation that keeps everyone happy; this is the most ideal situation.
It is much more solid than people realize at first glance. It would be out of character for the SEC. But for an SEC including Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and possibly Kansas how much of a reach is Colorado? None. How much of a reach is Utah culturally from SEC states? Not Much. An Arizona State? Tempe/Phoenix is a significant market.
So, they fit with the new SEC West.
The weakness is that it's not easy to sell to SEC fans. They want games with neighboring schools which they can drive to easily. This is what will kill this.
Kansas and Colorado? Maybe. Utah and Arizona, not likely.
Maybe the Big 10 moves to 18 with Oregon and Washington anyway. If the ACC stays stable and ND keeps its partial membership, then maybe the SEC looks at something like Kansas and Colorado. Kansas and Mizzou is needed. Denver counts.
(07-11-2022 01:51 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (07-11-2022 01:38 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote: [ -> ]If this went dahn, and the ACC got fair compensation that keeps everyone happy; this is the most ideal situation.
It is much more solid than people realize at first glance. It would be out of character for the SEC. But for an SEC including Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and possibly Kansas how much of a reach is Colorado? None. How much of a reach is Utah culturally from SEC states? Not Much. An Arizona State? Tempe/Phoenix is a significant market.
So, they fit with the new SEC West.
The weakness is that it's not easy to sell to SEC fans. They want games with neighboring schools which they can drive to easily. This is what will kill this.
Kansas and Colorado? Maybe. Utah and Arizona, not likely.
Maybe the Big 10 moves to 18 with Oregon and Washington anyway. If the ACC stays stable and ND keeps its partial membership, then maybe the SEC looks at something like Kansas and Colorado. Kansas and Mizzou is needed. Denver counts.
Texas is like a cultural railroad in a way. The eastern part is very much like anything you'd see in the SE. The western part is very similar to Arizona and New Mexico, and then the northern panhandle is close to that of Oklahoma and Kansas. Plus, even places like Wyoming is more culturally related to Alabama than Wyoming or Alabama is to California.
(07-11-2022 01:51 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (07-11-2022 01:38 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote: [ -> ]If this went dahn, and the ACC got fair compensation that keeps everyone happy; this is the most ideal situation.
It is much more solid than people realize at first glance. It would be out of character for the SEC. But for an SEC including Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and possibly Kansas how much of a reach is Colorado? None. How much of a reach is Utah culturally from SEC states? Not Much. An Arizona State? Tempe/Phoenix is a significant market.
So, they fit with the new SEC West.
The weakness is that it's not easy to sell to SEC fans. They want games with neighboring schools which they can drive to easily. This is what will kill this.
Kansas and Colorado? Maybe. Utah and Arizona, not likely.
Maybe the Big 10 moves to 18 with Oregon and Washington anyway. If the ACC stays stable and ND keeps its partial membership, then maybe the SEC looks at something like Kansas and Colorado. Kansas and Mizzou is needed. Denver counts.
Kansas and Colorado would make the most sense geographically.
Kansas and Utah would make the most sense culturally.
Arizona State and Colorado make the most sense when it comes to market penetration.
SEC fans can be particular. That's not a criticism, just an observation. I've talked to people that hate the idea of expanding at all...plenty of people didn't want Texas and Oklahoma despite how much economic sense it made. The reason is because the economics is not what most fans think about. They just want to watch their team for the most part...and they want to watch them play the schools they've always played.
So I don't know. You can't dismiss fan interests at every turn, but you also have to be practical.