Quote:In order for expansion to be financially worthwhile, the Pac-12 would need to add schools that carry more than $30 million in annual media value.
There simply aren’t any available.
“There is really no more water that can be squeezed out of the rock,” the media industry source said. “The value of any individual school that’s outside the Pac-12 — while some might have slightly more than others — is minuscule.”
Why? Because of their value, or lack thereof, on the most profitable broadcast platform: over-the-air television.
“Look at it this way,” the source explained. “There are only so many window openings on the schedule. Those are going to be filled by the big brands, no matter which league they’re in. Because they have more than others, the Big Ten and SEC are going to take most of them.
“Then other big-brand games like Clemson-Miami or Oregon-Washington, are going to have a place in those windows.
“(But) Cal vs. Oregon or San Diego State vs. Arizona is going to find a secondary platform, where the bulk of (college football) is going to be.
“Unless (expansion involves) a school that can find its way to the main-platform windows, its value is the same as the others in the bulk bin.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2022/07/07/pa...ial-sense/
They are forgetting here that Kansas is brand level material in basketball.
KU would probably bring the PAC SOS up in basketball enough to account for 2 entrants into the NCAAT.
OSU brings FB strength that would help the league if not for TV revenues but other conference revs.
Throw in Baylor and Texas Tech you have a top BB conference.
Quite telling...... no mention of any Big 12 schools being raided. So as it stands, we have rumors and smoke about Big 12 raiding PAC. However, a very real possibility is everyone holds steady. PAC does not expand and signs a new contract for their current 10 years. It will be interesting to see what the terms of the contract are and if there is a GOR. Outside Washington and Oregon, I just cannot see how the historical ratings, time zone, and fan involvement with equate to a large contract. The real question is whether the mid tier of the conference is willing to sign a contract knowing they become a glorified MWC if the top 2 do end up leaving.
(07-07-2022 12:15 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]They are forgetting here that Kansas is brand level material in basketball.
KU would probably bring the PAC SOS up in basketball enough to account for 2 entrants into the NCAAT.
OSU brings FB strength that would help the league if not for TV revenues but other conference revs.
Throw in Baylor and Texas Tech you have a top BB conference.
Kit Kat, tell me where the $80 million extra per team comes from? I'll wait..........oh, and I am sure Kansas would love to jump to a league that is multiple bars below their current league in basketball.
(07-07-2022 12:19 PM)otown Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 12:15 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]They are forgetting here that Kansas is brand level material in basketball.
KU would probably bring the PAC SOS up in basketball enough to account for 2 entrants into the NCAAT.
OSU brings FB strength that would help the league if not for TV revenues but other conference revs.
Throw in Baylor and Texas Tech you have a top BB conference.
Kit Kat, tell me where the $80 million extra per team comes from? I'll wait..........oh, and I am sure Kansas would love to jump to a league that is multiple bars below their current league in basketball.
Fiddle around in Phil Knight's wallet.
Kansas (BB brand)
Gonzaga (BB brand)
Hawaii FB (takes reduced payout)
Surely there has to be value in a BB conference with Gonzaga, Zona and Kansas.
(07-07-2022 12:30 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]Kansas (BB brand)
Gonzaga (BB brand)
Hawaii FB (takes reduced payout)
Surely there has to be value in a BB conference with Gonzaga, Zona and Kansas.
I think KU would be a little crazy to leave Big XII basketball to join PAC10 even if Gonzaga was in it.
(07-07-2022 12:30 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]Kansas (BB brand)
Gonzaga (BB brand)
Hawaii FB (takes reduced payout)
Surely there has to be value in a BB conference with Gonzaga, Zona and Kansas.
1) Is it worth it to Kansas to forego $80 million in Big 12 revenue to join the PAC? If all things were equal maybe, but all things aren’t equal.
3) With conference title games being deregulated, what does Hawaii bring to the table to warrant expanding?
As to Gonzaga, yes I think that’s a strong addition and makes sense for both parties, provided the existing PAC members stick together.
(07-07-2022 12:43 PM)Just Joe Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 12:30 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]Kansas (BB brand)
Gonzaga (BB brand)
Hawaii FB (takes reduced payout)
Surely there has to be value in a BB conference with Gonzaga, Zona and Kansas.
1) Is it worth it to Kansas to forego $80 million in Big 12 revenue to join the PAC? If all things were equal maybe, but all things aren’t equal.
3) With conference title games being deregulated, what does Hawaii bring to the table to warrant expanding?
As to Gonzaga, yes I think that’s a strong addition and makes sense for both parties, provided the existing PAC members stick together.
I don't know about Hawaii but I do know BB has value maybe not so much in raising per school TV numbers but adding overall conference revenue.
Unless there is a compelling financial reason, status quo will be the outcome.
Well the Big 12 added 4 mid-level brands. There is clearly some value in numbers. 12 is better than 10.
(07-07-2022 12:59 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]Well the Big 12 added 4 mid-level brands. There is clearly some value in numbers. 12 is better than 10.
PAC could see a jolt in basketball revenue to offset a haircut in to total TV revenue.
Moving forward it looks the part of a 3 bid basketball conference but with KU and few others could become a 6 bid+ league.
(07-07-2022 12:59 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]Well the Big 12 added 4 mid-level brands. There is clearly some value in numbers. 12 is better than 10.
But they added 3 good basketball teams to their already solid lineup.
Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
https://static.big12sports.com/custompag...bylaws.pdf
Quote:3.4 Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of its membership in the Conference. The Withdrawing Member shall be deemed to have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type that otherwise would have been made to the Withdrawing Member during the Interim Period (the “Distribution Withholding”) and the Conference shall not pay the Distribution Withholding to the Withdrawing Member. A Withdrawing Member agrees to pay to the Conference the amount by which the Buyout Amount exceeds the Distribution Withholding, with such payment to be made not later than the Effective Date. In addition,
• if (A) by legal action or otherwise, a Withdrawing Member, or any other person or entity, attempts to challenge or oppose or interfere with, or challenges or opposes or interferes with, (i) the payment of the Buyout Amount by the Withdrawing Member or the withholding of the Distribution Withholding by the Conference, (ii) the enforcement by the Conference of its rights under the Grant of Rights Agreement or the performance by the Withdrawing Member of its obligations under the Grant of Rights Agreement, or (iii) the right of the Conference’s telecast partners to televise games of the Withdrawing Member under the terms of the Grant of Rights Agreement during its then-remaining term; or (B) for any other reason the Conference’s telecast partners are unable to produce and telecast games of the Withdrawing Member during the then-remaining term of the Grant of Rights Agreement or the Conference is unable to realize the revenues relating to those games from its telecast partners,
• then the Members agree that such actions, in breach of the Withdrawing Member’s agreements in these Bylaws, cause additional damage to the Conference and therefore that the Buyout Amount shall be increased by, and shall also include, and the Withdrawing Member shall be obligated to pay to the Conference immediately upon the occurrence of any of the foregoing events, the amount of all actual loss, damage, costs, or expenses whatsoever (including but not limited to lost revenues, damage to reputation and public image, and damage to relationships with related parties) incurred by the Conference or any of its remaining Members directly or indirectly related to that challenge or opposition, whether economic or otherwise.
Each of the Members agrees that Withdrawal of a Member contrary to its commitment to the Conference and the other Members pursuant to Section 3.1 above would cause damage and financial hardship to the Conference and the other Members without regard to the continued enforcement of the Grant of Rights Agreement, that the financial consequences to the Conference and its remaining Members cannot be measured or estimated with certainty at this time, and that the payment of the Buyout Amount is a reasonable method of compensating the Conference and the other Members for such damage and financial hardship and shall not be construed as a penalty
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
(07-07-2022 01:10 PM)cc22 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
(Snipped, in the hopes that a shorter message gets through to those who don't read paragraphs. Two years of distributions)
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
And once more, for those just joining us: The Big 12 exit fee is separate from the Grant of Rights. GOR expires, the exit fee bylaw does not. (Might expire after 99 years from 2012 or so, but who cares)
EDIT: There's also a separate clause in the bylaws that says that if a school is acting shady, the Big 12 can declare them withdrawing and start withholding distributions. They haven't used that on Texas and Oklahoma, presumably because UT and OU are playing nice and staying until 2025 and not challenging the GOR. But if Kansas or TCU or whoever was planning to withdraw effective July 1 2026, the Big 12 would withhold for 2024 and 2025 just in case the TV contract is not good.
(07-07-2022 01:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:10 PM)cc22 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
(Snipped, in the hopes that a shorter message gets through to those who don't read paragraphs. Two years of distributions)
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
And once more, for those just joining us: The Big 12 exit fee is separate from the Grant of Rights. GOR expires, the exit fee bylaw does not. (Might expire after 99 years from 2012 or so, but who cares)
That 99 year GOR is what the XII with OU/UT had to agree to for a major TV deal to even get done last time around.
This time its questionable the XII will be able to get more than AAC money once they sit down at the XII sits down at the negotiating table.
(07-07-2022 01:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:10 PM)cc22 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
(Snipped, in the hopes that a shorter message gets through to those who don't read paragraphs. Two years of distributions)
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
And once more, for those just joining us: The Big 12 exit fee is separate from the Grant of Rights. GOR expires, the exit fee bylaw does not. (Might expire after 99 years from 2012 or so, but who cares)
That 99 year GOR is what the XII with OU/UT had to agree to for a major TV deal to even get done last time around.
This time its questionable the XII will be able to get more than AAC money once they sit down at the XII sits down at the negotiating table.
I'm pretty sure ESPN will throw them $120M a year, just for basketball, ESPN+ bulk football and a game or two a week on ESPN/2/U/ABC as filler. (Don't laugh at an ABC game or two per year--they did it for the 2012-19 AAC)
(07-07-2022 01:27 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:10 PM)cc22 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
(Snipped, in the hopes that a shorter message gets through to those who don't read paragraphs. Two years of distributions)
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
And once more, for those just joining us: The Big 12 exit fee is separate from the Grant of Rights. GOR expires, the exit fee bylaw does not. (Might expire after 99 years from 2012 or so, but who cares)
That 99 year GOR is what the XII with OU/UT had to agree to for a major TV deal to even get done last time around.
This time its questionable the XII will be able to get more than AAC money once they sit down at the XII sits down at the negotiating table.
I'm pretty sure ESPN will throw them $120M a year, just for basketball, ESPN+ bulk football and a game or two a week on ESPN/2/U/ABC as filler. (Don't laugh at an ABC game or two per year--they did it for the 2012-19 AAC)
I tend to agree what you are saying but if I'm Kansas I am not excited about it.
(07-07-2022 01:29 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:27 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2022 01:10 PM)cc22 Wrote: [ -> ]Don't forget that any school leaving the Big 12 would owe two years of distributions (probably over $90 million).
(Snipped, in the hopes that a shorter message gets through to those who don't read paragraphs. Two years of distributions)
If this is to be understood correctly, it's a massive financial pain in the ass for anyone leaving the conference.
And once more, for those just joining us: The Big 12 exit fee is separate from the Grant of Rights. GOR expires, the exit fee bylaw does not. (Might expire after 99 years from 2012 or so, but who cares)
That 99 year GOR is what the XII with OU/UT had to agree to for a major TV deal to even get done last time around.
This time its questionable the XII will be able to get more than AAC money once they sit down at the XII sits down at the negotiating table.
I'm pretty sure ESPN will throw them $120M a year, just for basketball, ESPN+ bulk football and a game or two a week on ESPN/2/U/ABC as filler. (Don't laugh at an ABC game or two per year--they did it for the 2012-19 AAC)
I tend to agree what you are saying but if I'm Kansas I am not excited about it.
The PAC will do better, but not as well as expected, mostly because they're going first. The B1G is going to hoover up most of the available TV windows with better or equal games. Then the PAC will get a package on TV. THEN the Big 12 will we workign with what's left.
We'd listen, but then politely say no to the PAC-10. Now if it were the B1G or SEC asking ...