CSNbbs

Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

1. Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado were reported late last week to be leaning into a possible contingency escape to the Big 12 themselves, but I’m told by a high-ranking official at one of those universities to pump the brakes on that speculation. “There is no meeting on the books for us with the Big 12,” the source said, “and George is kicking ass.”

2. Former Fox Sports Network president Bob Thompson told me last week that he estimated the Pac-12’s next media rights contract would command $500 million a year before the defection. With the Los Angeles’ television market gone, Thompson says the Pac-12’s media value is reduced to $300 million a year. That appears to be a 40-percent wholesale discount. But it pencils out to a 28 percent reduction, per university, given that the $300 million would now be split only 10 ways ($30 million each) vs. $500 million being split 12 ways ($41.6 million each).


3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

4. Pac-12 issued a statement on Tuesday morning, indicating that its board had authorized the conference to “immediately” begin negotiations for the next media rights agreement. Sounds like the Pac-12 already has a media partner (ESPN? Apple?) and is ready to move forward with a new plan. My hunch is the Pac-12 accelerated the negotiation because it has some specific additional conference additions (from the Big 12? ACC?) in mind.


5. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown may throw a wrinkle into the UO plans. There’s been some speculation that she might step in and attempt to force the Ducks to stay in lockstep with Oregon State. Some lawmakers in Washington have indicated they’d do the same on Washington State’s behalf.


6. A source at UCLA told me that the discussions with the Big Ten got intense about eight weeks ago. Also, I’m told that USC and UCLA didn’t communicate with each other about their Pac-12 departures until “the 11th hour” when Bruins’ AD Martin Jarmond and Trojans’ AD Mike Bohn got on the phone together. Said one source, “I can’t believe this didn’t get leaked.”



https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

Legislative interference has only come through twice and failed to come through many more times. It worked with the formation of the Big 12 and ensuring that Baylor and Texas Tech were included, and it worked when the ACC was expanding to 12, and Virginia was able to veto expansion unless VT was added. It has otherwise failed to significantly impact realignment with the recent defections of Texas and Oklahoma being the latest notable example. Even the efforts of Baylor, TCU, Tech, and (behind the scenes) A&M had no effect on Texas being able to leave the Big 12 in a lurch.

Oregon and Washington are overwhelmingly more valuable than their counterparts, and they aren't going to get stuck in a bad situation in a dying league. Their own legislators and influential friends will go to bat for them and win the day with promises to help the two being left behind when the opportunity arises. And this $30m/team isn't happening without a GoR, which Stanford and the Four Corners teams are not likely to sign. Tying Oregon and Washington to their respective States only works if the conference is still going to be valuable. A conference that ends up with just the 4 PNW teams and Cal plus whatever MWC teams isn't going to get a meaningfully better deal than the AAC, if they even do that.

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]6. A source at UCLA told me that the discussions with the Big Ten got intense about eight weeks ago. Also, I’m told that USC and UCLA didn’t communicate with each other about their Pac-12 departures until “the 11th hour” when Bruins’ AD Martin Jarmond and Trojans’ AD Mike Bohn got on the phone together. Said one source, “I can’t believe this didn’t get leaked.”

For something this monumental to not be leaked until 5 hours before it was official is absolutely stunning.

Adding MWC schools made no sense. They were probably looking at Kansas and OSU, which they had no chance of landing given the fluidity with the existing PAC10, notably flirtations with the B1G. The best move is to stand pat and see where things break in 2035.

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

Looking an awful lot like we'll see a PAC-10.

(07-06-2022 02:34 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]Adding MWC schools made no sense. They were probably looking at Kansas and OSU, which they had no chance of landing given the fluidity with the existing PAC10, notably flirtations with the B1G. The best move is to stand pat and see where things break in 2035.

To be fair, the speculation was that enough teams would exit the PAC that backfilling with MWC teams would make more sense. Yes, a team has to bring in $30m right now. If Oregan and Washington were to leave, for instance, maybe an add would only need $20, and on and on until your $8m Boise add makes sense.

The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

(07-06-2022 02:48 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:34 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]Adding MWC schools made no sense. They were probably looking at Kansas and OSU, which they had no chance of landing given the fluidity with the existing PAC10, notably flirtations with the B1G. The best move is to stand pat and see where things break in 2035.

To be fair, the speculation was that enough teams would exit the PAC that backfilling with MWC teams would make more sense. Yes, a team has to bring in $30m right now. If Oregan and Washington were to leave, for instance, maybe an add would only need $20, and on and on until your $8m Boise add makes sense.

Begging the question. At what point does the bleeding stop if two more leave, or four more, or six? We don't know who if any would remain (aside from OSU and WSU). If it came down to those two, the PAC conference doesn't survive. Even with Cal/Stanford, independence is more likely.

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St? I can't take an insider like that seriously.

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

Yes, that was the point of a number of threads/articles yesterday. There really aren't many. Personally, I think they only thing that brings in thisnkind of cashish would be blocks of teams like the remaining 4 valuable PAC teams and the Academic ACC teams that eventually lead to a Premier League style CFB conference. So a synergy is created by adding a number of teams but individually only ND, Clemson, FSU maybe could achieve $30m.

(07-06-2022 03:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St? I can't take an insider like that seriously.

???

The guy freaking broke the USC/UCLA to Big Ten story!!! This was something that absolutely NO ONE knew about until a few hours before it was announced!!!

If you're saying that you can't trust Wilner (of all people) as an insider on Pac-12 matters when he just broke the most inside story in the modern history of conference realignment (and one that is completely devastating to the Pac-12 if the argument is that he is somehow incentivized to protect the conference in order to protect his job), then what exactly is the standard for being able to trust any particular reporter here?

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

would UO and UW sign a media deal negotiated this year to start in 24 if they have a chance to go B1G in 2 years (decision time point for ND)?
if they don't will the pac survive with an inferior media deal?

Just do what the Big 12 is doing where it takes so many years to reach full revenue. Boise state would still draw eyeballs. I would think you at least want SDSU to have access to Southern California and SMU.

(07-06-2022 03:14 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 03:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St? I can't take an insider like that seriously.

???

The guy freaking broke the USC/UCLA to Big Ten story!!! This was something that absolutely NO ONE knew about until a few hours before it was announced!!!

If you're saying that you can't trust Wilner (of all people) as an insider on Pac-12 matters when he just broke the most inside story in the modern history of conference realignment (and one that is completely devastating to the Pac-12 if the argument is that he is somehow incentivized to protect the conference in order to protect his job), then what exactly is the standard for being able to trust any particular reporter here?

Has nothing to do with reporting the facts at hand versus off the cuff speculation. If MWC schools are added I will eat crow. You can dive into his twitter and dig out nonsense like Fresno and SDSU as potential expansion candidates. While I'd give that a 15-20% chance, it also comes from the same guy making a numbers argument against UO and WU. Sorry but that doesn't pass my smell test.

This could lead to something I would have considered implausible a week ago. If there is the kind of solidarity being discussed here, I can now see the possibility of the B1G adding Colorado along with Notre Dame! The remaining nine could be looking at splitting $300 million nine ways instead of ten and still having a viable Tier 2 P5 conference. I don't believe the PAC would go to heroic lengths to keep the Buffs in the corral.

There are 3 B12 teams that make sense for the Pac12:

TCU, huge west coast connections, Dallas market

Houston, 4th largest TV market, NIL era

Kansas, AAU, brings basketball... KU would probably not be interested

(07-06-2022 03:14 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 03:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St? I can't take an insider like that seriously.

???

The guy freaking broke the USC/UCLA to Big Ten story!!! This was something that absolutely NO ONE knew about until a few hours before it was announced!!!

If you're saying that you can't trust Wilner (of all people) as an insider on Pac-12 matters when he just broke the most inside story in the modern history of conference realignment (and one that is completely devastating to the Pac-12 if the argument is that he is somehow incentivized to protect the conference in order to protect his job), then what exactly is the standard for being able to trust any particular reporter here?

Yup. Wilner has been on top of the Pac12 pulse better than anyone. He's also been the one saying for some time that there was trouble in Pac12 paradise. That said, I still think any Pac12 school with no chance of getting a legit look from the Big10 or SEC would likely be better off long term moving to the Big12 now while they have an invite in hand. Academics is great---and can still be a factor----but its becoming clear that is not whats driving college sports anymore....

So I think they are gonna stand pat, and wait on the ACC to save them.

Stan/Cal/Wash/OR to the ACC would make some sense

Now at that point, its likely the remainders talk to B12

If find it very surprising there has been NOTHING on Stanford and Cal and where their heads are at.

Since the geography barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the ACC scooped up Cal and Stanford to mimic the Big 10 model. If ESPN is willing to make it worthwhile that would be a move the ACC could make to increase revenue