Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
(07-05-2022 03:18 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
The ACC can't do anything if ND stays put as it would endanger the GOR. The smaller ACC schools don't want that.
(07-05-2022 03:23 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:18 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
The ACC can't do anything if ND stays put as it would endanger the GOR. The smaller ACC schools don't want that.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. I am sure lawyers can find a way to implement this without putting the current GoR at risk.
If the ACC decides to add new schools, the ACC can draft a new GoR in a way that it will be effective only if the new schools join the conference. Then the ACC can invite the new member on condtion that they sign the new GoR. If any exisiting member school or potential new member school refuses to sign, the new GoR is not effective (and potential members cannot join) and therefore cannot nullify or supersede the current GoR.
If ND can't/won't leave the ACC I think something that needs to be watched is if they can make an agreement with the Big 10 to preserve the ND-USC game in November. The Big 10 forced all the pre ACC ND-Big 10 games to be played early as the Big 10 wasn't going to move things around to accommodate ND November games.
To me, ND making an agreement X games/year agreement with the Big 10 like they have with the ACC is entirely likely if not probable if they value the USC game and a yearly end of year trip to CA.
According to Jon Wilner, “the Big Ten will sit back for two years, then try to get Notre Dame.”.
So in the end, it doesn’t look like ND will leave immediately.
If true, I don’t think any Pac schools will leave for the B12. Among the remaining Pac schools, Oregon probably wants to get out the most but I don’t think the BIG and the SEC would take ducks as the #17 team.
Then the most likely scenario would be the Ducks taking a tentpole position in a blended, ESPN-backed version of the Pac-12 and Big 12/ACC as mentioned in Canzano’s article.
I am curious of this ESPN backed version. Does the ESPN want some type of partnership? Or would the ESPN prefer moving the schools around? If so, which side the ESPN would take?
This has to be quickly finalized before the Pac signs a new deal.
(07-05-2022 03:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:23 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:18 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
The ACC can't do anything if ND stays put as it would endanger the GOR. The smaller ACC schools don't want that.
If the ACC decides to add new schools, the ACC can draft a new GoR in a way that it will be effective only if the new schools join the conference. Then the ACC can invite the new member on condtion that they sign the new GoR.
That's excactly how it works now. You have to sign the GoR before you're admitted as a new member.
(07-06-2022 04:02 PM)ColKurtz Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:23 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:18 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
The ACC can't do anything if ND stays put as it would endanger the GOR. The smaller ACC schools don't want that.
If the ACC decides to add new schools, the ACC can draft a new GoR in a way that it will be effective only if the new schools join the conference. Then the ACC can invite the new member on condtion that they sign the new GoR.
That's excactly how it works now. You have to sign the GoR before you're admitted as a new member.
Yes, the GoR copy we've seen clearly allows for the addition of new members, and in fact Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt and 1/2 Notre Dame all came on board after that initial GoR was signed. It isn't that adding members to the ACC will void or completely reopen the GoR, it's that any substantial change to the ACC will give schools who want out another opportunity to attack it based upon a change in circumstances from when they signed on in 2016. It's not a sure thing, but the more things that change from the ACC's 2016 status quo the more likely a challenger would succeed in getting out, or at least reducing the damages they have to pay for breach.
(07-06-2022 03:55 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]According to Jon Wilner, “the Big Ten will sit back for two years, then try to get Notre Dame.”.
So in the end, it doesn’t look like ND will leave immediately.
If true, I don’t think any Pac schools will leave for the B12. Among the remaining Pac schools, Oregon probably wants to get out the most but I don’t think the BIG and the SEC would take ducks as the #17 team.
Then the most likely scenario would be the Ducks taking a tentpole position in a blended, ESPN-backed version of the Pac-12 and Big 12/ACC as mentioned in Canzano’s article.
I am curious of this ESPN backed version. Does the ESPN want some type of partnership? Or would the ESPN prefer moving the schools around? If so, which side the ESPN would take?
This has to be quickly finalized before the Pac signs a new deal.
...this is looking pretty likely, but... with USC/UCLA gone from the PAC, I get the feeling that Stanford and/or Cal believe THEY are the leaders of the conference (notice we have heard NOTHING from either... which leads you to believe they are in line with, or perhaps even DICTATING, the PAC statements currently) - so the 'internal dynamic' may be somewhat toxic between the NoCal schools and the UO/UW couplet (OSU and WSU are most likely lined up with Cal/Stan) - and the 'four corners' schools seem to be all over the place as to their thoughts...
But bottom line, something tells me UO/UW and Stan/Cal aren't on the same page as to who is/will be in charge of things, or at least the direction of the PAC henceforth, if it survives... again, just my take, no sources on any of this...
(07-06-2022 04:08 PM)Gamenole Wrote: [ -> ] (07-06-2022 04:02 PM)ColKurtz Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:23 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-05-2022 03:18 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]Everyone is expecting a huge announcement from ND but what if they say, “Nah, we will pass this time. See you in six/seven years (or whenever the next media cycle ends)”
Then what?
The BIG will most likely stop at 16 and finalize their media deal.
The SEC will not move.
Then the questions are what would the other three conferences do?
Will the Pac 12 be able to poach the B12 teams or the other way around?
What would/should the ACC do? They cannot just wait for ND.
The ACC can't do anything if ND stays put as it would endanger the GOR. The smaller ACC schools don't want that.
If the ACC decides to add new schools, the ACC can draft a new GoR in a way that it will be effective only if the new schools join the conference. Then the ACC can invite the new member on condtion that they sign the new GoR.
That's excactly how it works now. You have to sign the GoR before you're admitted as a new member.
Yes, the GoR copy we've seen clearly allows for the addition of new members, and in fact Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt and 1/2 Notre Dame all came on board after that initial GoR was signed. It isn't that adding members to the ACC will void or completely reopen the GoR, it's that any substantial change to the ACC will give schools who want out another opportunity to attack it based upon a change in circumstances from when they signed on in 2016.
in other words, message board nonsense.
Quote:t's not a sure thing, but the more things that change from the ACC's 2016 status quo the more likely a challenger would succeed in getting out, or at least reducing the damages they have to pay for breach.
Nope. GOR is pretty much ironclad. you might hit a number where a conference will take the money and release you, but you can't breach the GOR. not how it works.
ND is dumb if they do not make the move. They would double their current media rights payment.
(07-06-2022 04:14 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote: [ -> ] (07-06-2022 03:55 PM)random asian guy Wrote: [ -> ]According to Jon Wilner, “the Big Ten will sit back for two years, then try to get Notre Dame.”.
So in the end, it doesn’t look like ND will leave immediately.
If true, I don’t think any Pac schools will leave for the B12. Among the remaining Pac schools, Oregon probably wants to get out the most but I don’t think the BIG and the SEC would take ducks as the #17 team.
Then the most likely scenario would be the Ducks taking a tentpole position in a blended, ESPN-backed version of the Pac-12 and Big 12/ACC as mentioned in Canzano’s article.
I am curious of this ESPN backed version. Does the ESPN want some type of partnership? Or would the ESPN prefer moving the schools around? If so, which side the ESPN would take?
This has to be quickly finalized before the Pac signs a new deal.
...this is looking pretty likely, but... with USC/UCLA gone from the PAC, I get the feeling that Stanford and/or Cal believe THEY are the leaders of the conference (notice we have heard NOTHING from either... which leads you to believe they are in line with, or perhaps even DICTATING, the PAC statements currently) - so the 'internal dynamic' may be somewhat toxic between the NoCal schools and the UO/UW couplet (OSU and WSU are most likely lined up with Cal/Stan) - and the 'four corners' schools seem to be all over the place as to their thoughts...
But bottom line, something tells me UO/UW and Stan/Cal aren't on the same page as to who is/will be in charge of things, or at least the direction of the PAC henceforth, if it survives... again, just my take, no sources on any of this...
The current Oregon situation reminds me of FSU before signing up the GoR.
FSU and the tobacco road schools were (and are) not on the same page and FSU wanted to leave for the SEC but the invitation never came.
FSU coild have joined the B12, which would have been a serious blow to the ACC, maybe a fatal one.
If ND decides to stay, then I think Oregon holds the key for the next domino.
We all know the Big 10 has always wanted Notre Dame. And Notre Dame has always said no. It would seem if the Big really wanted to force Notre Dame's hand, it should try and poach the few remaining big schools left like Oregon. Because the less names that are out there, the more pressure Notre Dame will feel the need to make a move. FOMO. But, as far as I can tell, the Big 10 is not looking to add anything more. So it tends to become pretty easy for Notre Dame to simply stay put as is.
Notre Dame doesn't have to join a conference. They have to decide on their priorities. It comes down to whether or not Notre Dame cares about TV revenue discrepancies between them and the Big Ten/SEC and if they have access to the CFP. There is a lot of pride in independence and as long as there is a way to make it work, I believe they will.
If they prioritize independence over TV revenue, they can stay independent as long as there is at least a P2. I see no reason why their next TV contract can't at least be reasonably close to what Big Ten/SEC schools will make.
As for CFP access, they can always threaten to join the SEC (or Big Ten) if the Big Ten (or SEC) tries to keep them out of the CFP. They can play that game as long as there is a P2.
Now if someday we are down to one mega conference/league that controls the CFP, then the Irish could potentially be locked out of the CFP and they will have a tough decision to make regarding independence. Of course, that's when you start talking to lawyers about anti-trust.
The Irish don't have to join a conference if they don't want to.
(07-06-2022 10:20 PM)Jericho Wrote: [ -> ]We all know the Big 10 has always wanted Notre Dame. And Notre Dame has always said no. It would seem if the Big really wanted to force Notre Dame's hand, it should try and poach the few remaining big schools left like Oregon. Because the less names that are out there, the more pressure Notre Dame will feel the need to make a move. FOMO. But, as far as I can tell, the Big 10 is not looking to add anything more. So it tends to become pretty easy for Notre Dame to simply stay put as is.
True, but also applied to the other coast. The Big has invited ND while looking to remove make it so there’s nothing to stay independent for.
There’s no doubt Fox/BIG are working on figuring out how to collapse the ACC.
Taking Stanford and one more in the Pac takes care of one side though.
2026 is when two contracts come up
1) Notre Dame's $15M per year NBC football contract (NBC got then super cheap).
2) CFP is done unless renewed; real chance SEC and B1G lock everyone else out.
Around this time two years from now check back in on Notre Dame, they may well move, especially if the B1G takes Stanford with them.
The ACC will still be locked in, waiting out the GOR. When it gets close to expiring Clemson and North Carolina will walk over to the SEC.
(07-06-2022 07:02 PM)Fanofreason Wrote: [ -> ]ND is dumb if they do not make the move. They would double their current media rights payment.
I have a hard time believing ND not jumping to the B1G will be unwise of them… And plus Notre Dame will be just fine even after the ACC is skinned off, imo