In every major realignment cycle, one or more schools falls off the major college carousel.
1981 (the I-A/I-AA split): the Ivy League.
1995: Rice (and to a lesser extent, SMU)
2013: UConn
Who are going to be left holding the bag this time around? Candidates include:
1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
2. If it's the ACC, Wake Forest and Boston College (perhaps Syracuse)
3. If it's the Big 12, Iowa St., Kansas St., and either TCU or Baylor
(07-03-2022 06:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]In every major realignment cycle, one or more schools falls off the major college carousel.
1981 (the I-A/I-AA split): the Ivy League.
1995: Rice (and to a lesser extent, SMU)
2013: UConn
Who are going to be left holding the bag this time around? Candidates include:
1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
2. If it's the ACC, Wake Forest and Boston College (perhaps Syracuse)
3. If it's the Big 12, Iowa St., Kansas St., and either TCU or Baylor
USF got left behind with UConn when the Big East imploded. As did Cincinnati.
(07-03-2022 06:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
I rate this as most probable.
(07-03-2022 06:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]In every major realignment cycle, one or more schools falls off the major college carousel.
1981 (the I-A/I-AA split): the Ivy League.
1995: Rice (and to a lesser extent, SMU)
2013: UConn
Who are going to be left holding the bag this time around? Candidates include:
1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
2. If it's the ACC, Wake Forest and Boston College (perhaps Syracuse)
3. If it's the Big 12, Iowa St., Kansas St., and either TCU or Baylor
Can’t argue with the PAC or ACC, no way Baylor or TCU get left behind. k Iowa State, not B1G material but I doubt they drop. WVU, UCF and K-State have the smallest endowments. Also, if it all implodes I could see Kansas say they are done chasing big time FB and join others who may do the same, de-emphasize football, focus on olympic sports, mainly basketball.
As far as the P5 thing goes I don't see any left behinds but probably a few get in.
PAC (ISU, KU, OSU, TCU, Baylor, TT)
XII (Boise, CSU, SMU, Memphis, Temple, USF)
AAC (WKU, MT, LT, FIU)
MWC (NMSU, UTEP)
FBS down to 9 conferences. Playoff expanded to 16 teams with 6 autobids.
If "left behind" means they aren't in the B1G or SEC, my guess right now of who gets left behind:
Pac: Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Big 12: Everyone
ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke
(07-03-2022 07:54 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ]If "left behind" means they aren't in the B1G or SEC, my guess right now of who gets left behind:
Pac: Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Big 12: Everyone
ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke
And from that group you can build a very viable #3 Conference ...
(07-03-2022 07:57 PM)Maize Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:54 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ]If "left behind" means they aren't in the B1G or SEC, my guess right now of who gets left behind:
Pac: Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Big 12: Everyone
ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke
And from that group you can build a very viable #3 Conference ...
Definitely, but that won't matter if the B1G and SEC have their own playoff.
(07-03-2022 06:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]In every major realignment cycle, one or more schools falls off the major college carousel.
1981 (the I-A/I-AA split): the Ivy League.
1995: Rice (and to a lesser extent, SMU)
2013: UConn
Who are going to be left holding the bag this time around? Candidates include:
1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
2. If it's the ACC, Wake Forest and Boston College (perhaps Syracuse)
3. If it's the Big 12, Iowa St., Kansas St., and either TCU or Baylor
Baylor's football program has six double-digit win seasons since 2011, including 12-2 with a Top 5 finish last year.
Won the NCAA men's basketball championship in 2021, one of 10 trips to the NCAA Tournament since 2008.
Women's basketball? Three NT's since 2005.
Decided it wanted an on-campus football stadium, then got it done at the cost of $266M in 2014.
Largest Baptist university in the country with a $2B endowment.
If Baylor was dropped off in the SEC tomorrow, the Bears would win their fair share
(07-03-2022 07:58 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:57 PM)Maize Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:54 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ]If "left behind" means they aren't in the B1G or SEC, my guess right now of who gets left behind:
Pac: Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Big 12: Everyone
ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke
And from that group you can build a very viable #3 Conference ...
Definitely, but that won't matter if the B1G and SEC have their own playoff.
More likely all 3 survive & that middle class is enlarged by top of current G5 filling their open holes.
I don’t think there will be enough $ for this tier to have a single conference go coast to coast like B1G, but I could see the ACC be a metro conference out to Texas.
Miami Florida could be left behind. Their ratings suck.
(07-03-2022 08:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Miami Florida could be left behind. Their ratings suck.
When DavidSt suggests you might not be D-I worthy, you've got problems
(07-03-2022 08:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 08:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Miami Florida could be left behind. Their ratings suck.
When DavidSt suggests you might not be D-I worthy, you've got problems
Yeah, tv ratings is really bad for the ACC schools if you are not Clemson or Florida State right now. Especially when you see a Miami game on tv with the stadium half full.
(07-03-2022 07:10 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 06:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: [ -> ]In every major realignment cycle, one or more schools falls off the major college carousel.
1981 (the I-A/I-AA split): the Ivy League.
1995: Rice (and to a lesser extent, SMU)
2013: UConn
Who are going to be left holding the bag this time around? Candidates include:
1. If the Pac-12 crumbles, Washington State/Oregon State
2. If it's the ACC, Wake Forest and Boston College (perhaps Syracuse)
3. If it's the Big 12, Iowa St., Kansas St., and either TCU or Baylor
Can’t argue with the PAC or ACC, no way Baylor or TCU get left behind. k Iowa State, not B1G material but I doubt they drop. WVU, UCF and K-State have the smallest endowments. Also, if it all implodes I could see Kansas say they are done chasing big time FB and join others who may do the same, de-emphasize football, focus on olympic sports, mainly basketball.
As far as athletics are concerned, endowments mean nothing
(07-03-2022 08:19 PM)hk25 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:58 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:57 PM)Maize Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 07:54 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ]If "left behind" means they aren't in the B1G or SEC, my guess right now of who gets left behind:
Pac: Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
Big 12: Everyone
ACC: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke
And from that group you can build a very viable #3 Conference ...
Definitely, but that won't matter if the B1G and SEC have their own playoff.
More likely all 3 survive & that middle class is enlarged by top of current G5 filling their open holes.
I don’t think there will be enough $ for this tier to have a single conference go coast to coast like B1G, but I could see the ACC be a metro conference out to Texas.
I have a feeling that the 3rd and 4th Conference will have access ... I’m looking at the Bowl system itself now. What happens to the Rose Bowl since the now Pac 10 has been gutted
It all depends on how it shakes out of course. Too many variable right now, but there are some schools who I think are VERY vulnerable and likely to end up in a worse situation than they currently find themselves.
1) If the B12 is able to raid the PAC12, then I think Washington State, Oregon State and maybe Arizona State could be in trouble. I'm not sure the B12 will want all 3 of them, and if they don't make it to the B12, then at best they will rebuild the PAC12 with MWC schools, clearly leaving them worse off than they currently are.
2) If the PAC12 is able to raid the B12, then a combination of Kansas State, Baylor, WVU, Cincy, Iowa State, BYU and UCF may be in trouble. I doubt any of those are going to make it to the B10 or SEC, so if the PAC12 doesn't include them, their only hope is that if the ACC gets poached some of them may be able to land there. Otherwise it'll be a return to the American type conference as their only shot would be to poach from there again.
3) If the ACC ends up being poached, some of those schools will not be going to either the SEC or B10. I doubt Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, NCST, BC, or Louisville get picked up by either. I'm not 100% sure that Duke does either honestly. Clemson, FSU, GT, UNC, ND and EITHER (but probably not both) UVA/VT make it. I'm on the fence about Miami and the other Virginia school. Again, if such a poaching happens, then perhaps they could add a WVU, Cincy, etc, some of the best of the eastern B12 and possibly some AAC schools to fill the gaps. Either way they end up in a worse place than they currently are.
I guess the big question is how much of the 'left behind' school are able to cobble together something that is still considered a 'power' conference. Sure they may be ahead of CUSA and some of the other current G5 conferences, but I think it's clear we aren't really going to have P5 and G5 any longer. More likely a P2 , M2 and a G4/5/6, depending. Maybe the left behinds can get a midlevel conference together or two and hope for future shuffling/additions to the P2, but I sort of feel like the wheat is going to be separated from the chaff, with the exception of the handful of schools who luckily already have their ticket punched to the P2, but otherwise are questionable from a 'deserving' standpoint (Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, etc).
It's still too early to tell beyond rank speculation. So, I will engage in rank speculation.
I think JR is right: There will be an NCAA breakaway by the SEC and B1G. A breakaway means March Madness as it exists today will change. The SEC and B1G will have their own basketball playoff, perhaps incorporating other leagues into that basketball playoff over time. In other words, basketball will become significantly more lucrative without the NCAA taking the largest part of the payout.
Of course, the college football world is waiting on ND right now
For purposes of this post, let's assume the following: First, ND goes B1G and not SEC. Second, except for ND, the B1G will continue to add schools that are AAU. Third, the B1G would not go past 24 schools at this point in realignment.
With the addition of USC and UCLA to the B1G, the PAC is seriously injured. If ND leaves the ACC, the ACC would be seriously injured. Here are the AAU schools out there that the B1G might reasonably consider to add if ND goes B1G: Arizona, Utah, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Duke, Virginia, Washington, Georgia Tech, and Colorado.
Since the PAC is more recently traumatized, plus its TV contract expires in 2025, I suspect the B1G would first fill out to 20 by taking ND and 3 from the West, to include at least Oregon and Washington, which gives the B1G massive presence in the West (something like 47% of all West Coast TV viewers).
Add one more school from this group: Arizona, Utah, Kansas, Cal, Stanford, and Colorado. I would guess Stanford, but no matter, pick your own favorite, and now the B1G is at 20.
With ND leaving the ACC, it would seem to be a matter of time before the ACC bleeds schools (most likely a lot sooner than 2036). From the B1G pov, here is who the B1G could take to get to 24: Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. The B1G's choices are more limited in the ACC even when Kansas is included. I doubt the B1G would go back to the West when ACC suitors begin calling.
The linchpin, of course, is UNC. Both the SEC and UNC want UNC. Whichever league gets UNC, Duke is reportedly a take linked to UNC. It is also possible that UVA could become linked to UNC-Duke. Both leagues would take all 3 of those schools.
SCENARIO 1 - B1G WINS UNC:
If UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G, I think the B1G would then take GT, get deep into SEC country and call it a league. I don't think the B1G would choose KU over GT, but this is a guess.
UNC and Duke to the B1G would take two huge basketball schools off the SEC board. But if basketball is worth the gamble, Kansas would possibly still be out there for the SEC. With no AAU requirement, Louisville plays good basketball periodically. Similarly, Syracuse has a ton of basketball fans.
On the football side, FSU and Clemson are there. Also, the SEC still gets that NC/VA presence by taking lesser lights NCSU and VPI and the SEC just "grows" them, to the chagrin of UNC (although UVA maybe wouldn't care).
Maybe retaliate against the B1G if it took GT by the SEC taking Pitt, striking deep into B1G country? Maybe take CU (because I love that road trip to Boulder, lol)?
The point is the SEC has lots of options even if UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G. What's not clear is whether the remaining schools, even with basketball, and future basketball revenue after a breakaway, are sufficiently accretive to add to the SEC.
SCENARIO 2 - SEC WINS UNC:
OTOH, does UNC want to cede the SEC and southern recruiting to NCSU? Seriously? Texas wasn't willing to take that gamble viz-a-viz Texas A&M. And without the AAU requirement, the SEC has flexibility to take in a lot more ACC schools than does the B1G, which also would help to persuade UNC, right?
So, now let's assume UNC and Duke go to the SEC and not to the B1G. Maybe UVA tags along, maybe they don't, but VPI is sitting there for SEC taking if UVA fails to show. The states of NC and VA are covered, period, in either scenario.
FSU and Clemson get a ticket, almost certainly, so let's get them off the table.
Now the SEC takes Kansas if they are still there because they have a legendary basketball heritage. The SEC could go further still in basketball with Louisville. Even further with Syracuse.
As wildcards, there's still Pitt and CU, possibly Utah (although I wouldn't think anything past KU is realistically in play for the SEC).
Anyhow, under Scenario 2, both football and basketball are strengthened. It would seem that UNC is the key from the SEC pov, not ND. If the SEC can add all of UNC, Duke, Kansas, possibly Louisville, maybe Syracuse, to add to Kentucky (and other SEC powers), the SEC would certainly be set for basketball revenue yearly come March Madness.
(07-03-2022 08:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 08:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]Miami Florida could be left behind. Their ratings suck.
When DavidSt suggests you might not be D-I worthy, you've got problems
One of the best posts ever. I just about chocked on my popcorn and beer as I read.
