It's Notre Dame. They make more from joining the SEC than they will make anywhere else. It gives them all of the exposure to recruiting states they could ever hope to have. And it makes the SEC the supreme conference.
Why do I call it a kill shot? It so destabilizes things that obtaining Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or anyone else, becomes a distinct possibility. They need the same recruiting access, the same money and exposure, and the same future certainty the Irish need. Remember NIL may be governed by a conference but not between conferences.
Want to play the best on equal footing? Then join the SEC. Toss in Clemson and FSU and some others and Boom! The Super Conference.
We've made an offer. So we've taken the shot. Now we wait. In the balance whether they realize it or not is the difference between a Super Conference and stability and a level playing field and continued unrest.
We wait.
(07-02-2022 05:30 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]It's Notre Dame. They make more from joining the SEC than they will make anywhere else. It gives them all of the exposure to recruiting states they could ever hope to have. And it makes the SEC the supreme conference.
Why do I call it a kill shot? It so destabilizes things that obtaining Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or anyone else, becomes a distinct possibility. They need the same recruiting access, the same money and exposure, and the same future certainty the Irish need. Remember NIL may be governed by a conference but not between conferences.
Want to play the best on equal footing? Then join the SEC. Toss in Clemson and FSU and some others and Boom! The Super Conference.
We've made an offer. So we've taken the shot. Now we wait. In the balance whether they realize it or not is the difference between a Super Conference with stability and a level playing field or continued unrest.
We wait.
Source? I trust you on this but curious.
(07-02-2022 05:30 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]It's Notre Dame. They make more from joining the SEC than they will make anywhere else. It gives them all of the exposure to recruiting states they could ever hope to have. And it makes the SEC the supreme conference.
Why do I call it a kill shot? It so destabilizes things that obtaining Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or anyone else, becomes a distinct possibility. They need the same recruiting access, the same money and exposure, and the same future certainty the Irish need. Remember NIL may be governed by a conference but not between conferences.
Want to play the best on equal footing? Then join the SEC. Toss in Clemson and FSU and some others and Boom! The Super Conference.
We've made an offer. So we've taken the shot. Now we wait. In the balance whether they realize it or not is the difference between a Super Conference and stability and a level playing field and continued unrest.
We wait.
I think you are smart enough to know it's a longshot, but...
Definitely worth the shot. Consider since the 1992 season there has been a championship game played for the college football title. That's 30 games so far with 60 participants.
In that span including your new additions of Texas and Oklahoma the SEC had have 8 different programs in that game 28 times. That's nearly half the slots right there.
In that same span, the B1G including their new members USC and UCLA only 3 different programs have played in that game for a total of 12 times.
So it's going to be a longshot.
The B1G with the additions of USC and UCLA added to PSU and Maryland the B1G is more a coast-to-coast conference whereas the SEC is with their latest expansion members basically remain a Southern Conference. Personally I think the geography of the SEC is far better suited for recruiting than the B1G is but I don't see that factor swaying ND to join the SEC.
I have been known to be wrong before.
Cheers,
Neil
I say yes. I think the SEC and ESPN have to.
The Alliance being shifted to top P12 brands plus ND in BIG means more dysfunctional wrestling for direction of college athletics.
And for college athletics to survive the NIL and employment era, it needs unification.
Complete SEC hegemony with ND is the fastest way to that.
I also just think a 24 team SEC with ND would be rather compelling product
A top 48 P2 split north-south needs to happen, ND could fit on either side imo. It’s more on brand for them to be SEC with the ACC schools, than getting lost in the shuffle as another BIG rust belt based school.
The SEC will need some insurance. Right now, I'd say the scales still tip to the B1G. But, I do believe that the SEC and E$PN could even the odds. It involves taking one particular school that I cannot stand!!! Frank loves this school, but I am honest when I say this: I despise it with every bone in my body!!! However, this one school might be able to tip the balance back towards the SEC, even with the B1G having USC and UCLA: Stanford. Yes, the uppity Bay Area snobs. The Farm. The school that produced the jerk known as John Elway!!!
I disagree with TerryD when he said Stanford was just another school to Notre Dame, in fact, I highly disagree. Notre Dame has alumni in the Bay Area, and I'd would be willing to make a wager with TerryD that the Bay Area alumni aren't going away quietly. The ND administration, whether they like it or hate it, will have to toss them a bone. It's not very wise to make enemies of Silicon Valley tycoons; they can come back to bite you in the butt, IMO.
(07-02-2022 05:30 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]It's Notre Dame. They make more from joining the SEC than they will make anywhere else. It gives them all of the exposure to recruiting states they could ever hope to have. And it makes the SEC the supreme conference.
Why do I call it a kill shot? It so destabilizes things that obtaining Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or anyone else, becomes a distinct possibility. They need the same recruiting access, the same money and exposure, and the same future certainty the Irish need. Remember NIL may be governed by a conference but not between conferences.
Want to play the best on equal footing? Then join the SEC. Toss in Clemson and FSU and some others and Boom! The Super Conference.
We've made an offer. So we've taken the shot. Now we wait. In the balance whether they realize it or not is the difference between a Super Conference and stability and a level playing field and continued unrest.
We wait.
Well you have to take the shot, ESPN would be stupid not to. It will be interesting to see what the Irish decide, the SEC backed by ESPN has a lot$$$$ to offer but is it enough to keep them away from their rivals (USC). The Irish love to make decisions that fly in the face of what the majority of people thinks best, so I'll take a guess and say they turn down the mouse and join the B1G. That's just a guess, with Notre Dame that's all you can do.... guess
An interesting aside to this, a question really about practicality:
Would the SEC go to the trouble of making ND this offer if it thought that ND had no way out of the ACC soon?
In other words, does this indicate that the SEC believes that ND can buy its way out of the GOR and exit fee and "If ND joins a conference, it must be the ACC" contract language fairly easily and quickly?
If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
(07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
Paying damages isn't "weaseling out". Its just paying damages.
Guess how many contracts are breached each day in America ? Thousands.
That is where the "All contracts are made to be broken" comes from.
It keeps lawyers billable hours up full time.
The contracts pre-suppose a breach or why else have damages clauses in them?
Its just business.
(07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
A matter of days
(07-03-2022 08:34 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
A matter of days
So does ESPN pay the ACC more to keep the conference secure and keep the Irish in check or run the risk of losing UVa, Duke, Carolina, and Georgia Tech (and possibly Pitt)?
Not to mention the B1G aggressively going after Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri and Florida, after scooping up Kansas, Colorado and Arizona.
(07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
I don't think the SEC and/or ESPN are worried about unleashing that chaos...who exactly in the SEC would be a flight risk? The SEC didn't even have an exit fee until recently, loosening the ties that bind all conferences together presents more opportunity for the SEC than risk.
I don't see the B1G or SEC going past 20 schools for two reasons: 1) I don't there are more than 4 teams each could add that have tremendous brands, and 2) I don't think it makes sense financially to go past 20.
(07-03-2022 11:44 AM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see the B1G or SEC going past 20 schools for two reasons: 1) I don't there are more than 4 teams each could add that have tremendous brands, and 2) I don't think it makes sense financially to go past 20.
On paper I would agree. By old norms I would agree. This is a rights grab for 2 premier leagues which may yet involve hoops. The networks will add as many as they want. How? They'll pay for it.
(07-03-2022 11:44 AM)shizzle787 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see the B1G or SEC going past 20 schools for two reasons: 1) I don't there are more than 4 teams each could add that have tremendous brands, and 2) I don't think it makes sense financially to go past 20.
And I would add that it also dilutes rivalries too much for the old SEC and old Big 10 schools. And those Big 10 schools get Ohio St. and Michigan less frequently.
24 worked when;
1) dollars were smaller; and
2) you could split into two 12 team leagues within the group. With the western expansions, that becomes more difficult for both the SEC and the Big 10. When they could simply split up the ACC between them, it worked much better. Old SEC and old Big 10 could mostly stay together and play 2 games a year against the 12 teams in the new partner league, so they get them all home and away over 12 years, same as East/West in the SEC now.
So would ESPN/SEC be offering a solo offer to ND or one in conjunction with other programs from the ACC?
I think joining the Big 10 cohort makes more sense for the Irish. That’s where their historic rivals are. The SEC states are not exactly heavily Catholic and a big part of ND’s mythos is that wherever they play, they have local support—not so in the Cotton states, save Louisiana.
(07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
Keep going, you're almost there.
(07-03-2022 09:14 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]So does ESPN pay the ACC more to keep the conference secure and keep the Irish in check or run the risk of losing UVa, Duke, Carolina, and Georgia Tech (and possibly Pitt)?
Not to mention the B1G aggressively going after Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri and Florida, after scooping up Kansas, Colorado and Arizona.
We were so close, Lance, we were so close.
(07-03-2022 02:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]So would ESPN/SEC be offering a solo offer to ND or one in conjunction with other programs from the ACC?
I think joining the Big 10 cohort makes more sense for the Irish. That’s where their historic rivals are. The SEC states are not exactly heavily Catholic and a big part of ND’s mythos is that wherever they play, they have local support—not so in the Cotton states, save Louisiana.
Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Atlanta, anywhere migrants go, anywhere snowbirds show, it's Catholic growth in the South!
Now to the pure "Canard" of the Irish breaking the ACC GOR. (This is aimed at XLance's post) Irish football is not under a grant of rights. Notre Dame's GOR penalty is for all other sports. The SEC GOR is for all sports of all schools since we have no partials.
Notre Dame is not challenging the GOR. Those other sports aren't prohibitive to buy out. Notre Dame will pay an exit fee. The only matter up in the air a little bit is the agreement not to join another conference for the duration of the GOR. Likely the GOR buyout nullifies it anyway.
So, ND leaving does not give ACC schools an out directly. What could give them an out legally is that the GOR extension was predicated upon ND participation in football for 5 games a season. Does this nullification, since it was a condition of the extension, abnegate the acceptance? The answer to this is dicey. And that is peculiar to the ACC and does not impact the SEC.
I strongly suspect ESPN's offer via the SEC was for ND to play in the SEC at SEC rates for football only, with access to the CFP and Bowls, but play at an initially reduced rate (likely divisional) so that USC may be accommodated, and the ACC scheduling arrangement reduced (likely by extending the time to play the required games to be fulfilled).
Such an arrangement would approximate the Big 10 offer, would permit ND's other sports to remain in the ACC eliminating the buyout and exit fees and still earning them a huge payday and keep Southerly recruiting lines stoked. And it keeps the ACC's GOR intact.
(07-03-2022 08:33 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2022 08:10 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]If Notre Dame can weasel out of the GOR and throw enough cash at the ACC to be able to leave, it presents a conundrum for ESPN.
If Notre Dame can leave the ACC, any other school could leave too. In fact any school in the SEC could leave that conference.
If the dam breaks.......chaos.
Paying damages isn't "weaseling out". Its just paying damages.
Guess how many contracts are breached each day in America ? Thousands.
That is where the "All contracts are made to be broken" comes from.
It keeps lawyers billable hours up full time.
The contracts pre-suppose a breach or why else have damages clauses in them?
Its just business.
Let’s be clear.
My understanding is this:
If ND leaves, it’s not paying damages for the breach of the GOR. If anything ND will pay damages for the breach of the five game arrangement and the promise of not joining another conference.
As for the GoR, ND will “buy out”. And I think techincally these are two different things. When a school fire a football coach, the school just buys out for the remaining years. ND gets only $10 million or so from the ESPN/ACCN so the total amount to buy out is about $140 million or so (14 years times $10 million), which is doable if ND gets paid well in the BIG or the SEC.
For the other ACC schools, their payment from the ESPN/ACCN is $30 million a year. The total buy out amount would be $420 million ($30x14) and that’s why nobody other than ND is leaving at this point. It seems UT and OU don’t want to pay for even a year and may have to stay in the B12 until the end of the GoR.