CSNbbs

In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
3. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets
4. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
5. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
6. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
7. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?
3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Big East/Indy
1. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East history (again) for reconfigured ACC?

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ]In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets
5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?
3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

You listed too many, in my opinion. The ones in bold are the ones who have an actual shot.

(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote: [ -> ]It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P". The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P". The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

? ? ? ? ? ?

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P". The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

If you are correct, a better question might be what P5 schools have a decent chance of being left behind.

(06-21-2022 06:46 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P".

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

Yeah, I'm not buying that either. If the B12 was going to implode, it would have happened when the SEC took Texas and Oklahoma and the B12 would not have invited BYU + AAC3.

Do i think it "could" happen? Yes, but the B1G isn't likely to take anyone from the B12 save MAYBE Kansas. I think if the B1G expands, they'll go after UVA and probably UNC. The ACC stays put. I doubt they saturate FL with UCF/USF, so that leaves VERY few options.

I am not so sure that the BIG12 will expand unless someone leaves. Have you seen the article below:

How the Big 12 plans to market itself after Texas, Oklahoma leave for SEC

The presidents and athletic directors got the next best thing to a crystal ball during their recent spring meetings. They heard a report on the perception of the future Big 12. The two-hour presentation came from Dallas-based LDWW, a marketing, advertising and communications agency whose clients include Carnival Corp, DFW Airport, WinStar and Sling TV in addition to the Big 12.

One of the key takeaways is that the loss of Texas and Oklahoma will be felt. It also may not be the apocalyptic impact that many predicted. Now it’s projected as a short-term hit to the conference’s reputation with remaining members still viewed highly in their own markets. The results were based on both a national survey and a survey of the Big 12 footprint with the new members.

”There was a survey of those who watch and engage in sports,” Schovanec said. “There is a slight dip in the perception of the league. We think that’s going to be very temporary. But our new conference is very strong in the 18-44-year-old bracket. We think that bodes very well for the future.”

The 18-44 age group is basically the fans of the future, Bowlsby said.

The survey took nine months to compile and included four focus group sessions in Dallas and two in Kansas City, key metropolitan areas within the current Big 12 footprint.

”I think what we found out in large measure is that, both inside the Big 12 footprint and outside the Big 12 footprint, our membership going forward is viewed very positively,” Bowlsby said. In some ways, the Big 12 will stay the same. Plans for the conference logo will remain the same. Although “Every Game Matters” was a solid branding device, there are no plans for a new slogan.

The biggest change is the four newcomers, who each tested well and projected to have an impact beyond the field, with Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida having played in New Year’s Six bowls since 2016. The Big 12′s job is to make the new group translate into eyeballs and TV ratings and interest. ”The setting is there for the conference to continue to do well and have a good reputation and good perception of the league,” said one source who watched the presentation.

Because of its affiliation with the Mormon Church, BYU is essentially a global brand, Bowlsby said. ”Perhaps with the exception of Notre Dame, they have the biggest worldwide reach of any university in the country and have been a traditional power in football,” Bowlsby said.

Central Florida gets the Big 12 into the Florida market and has a massive enrollment of more than 70,000 students – which translates into lots of future alumni and TV eyeballs.

Houston is based in the fourth largest city in the United States and will offer the Big 12 a foothold in a key market it had lost with the departure of Texas A&M.

Cincinnati offers a bridge to the Midwest in a football-rich area, along with a natural rival for West Virginia. And the Bearcats became the first group of five team to reach the College Football Playoff this past season.


Link
https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-...r-the-sec/

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ]In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets
5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?
3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line Probably

2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?

Could become attractive if they develop a strong FB program.

3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker

USF was listed as one of the 4 schools on the Big 12's short list. Strengthening their FB program would help USF a lot more than building a 35,000 seat stadium (the Big 12 might prefer to play USF at 65,000 seat Raymond James Stadium).

4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets. Strong candidate.

5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing

Could become attractive if they develop a strong FB program.

6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12

Could become attractive if they develop a strong FB program.

7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?

A possibility, if they can become the Boise State of the AAC, and if the Big 12 expands to 16.

8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

Could become attractive if they develop a strong FB program.


MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?

Should be a strong candidate if the PAC-12 expands. Geographical distance could be an issue for the Big 12.

2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?

Seems like a strong candidate for the Big 12; possible travel partner for BYU.

3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Could become a stronger candidate than BSU if they can develop a strong FB program. The PAC-12 might also add them as a travel partner for Colorado.

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

It may look that way now, but this could change. Louisiana-Lafayette has finished in the football top 25 two years in a row.

Yes, the B12 has the potential of climbing to the #3 P5. I don't think there is any way ANYONE catches the B1G or SEC, but the PAC and ACC are on the decline, but I don't think the B12 could have added anyone better.

Now, does the PAC ass to counter the B12's new strength in a couple years? SDSU? Boise? UNLV? And if that happens, UTEP is gone from CUSA. MAYBE New Mexico lets NMSU in the door or TXST.

Too many moving parts.

(06-21-2022 07:13 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]I am not so sure that the BIG12 will expand unless someone leaves:

Central Florida gets the Big 12 into the Florida market and has a massive enrollment of more than 70,000 students – which translates into lots of future alumni and TV eyeballs.

Houston is based in the fourth largest city in the United States and will offer the Big 12 a foothold in a key market it had lost with the departure of Texas A&M.

Cincinnati offers a bridge to the Midwest in a football-rich area, along with a natural rival for West Virginia. And the Bearcats became the first group of five team to reach the College Football Playoff this past season.

If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

(06-21-2022 07:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 07:13 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]I am not so sure that the BIG12 will expand unless someone leaves:

Central Florida gets the Big 12 into the Florida market and has a massive enrollment of more than 70,000 students – which translates into lots of future alumni and TV eyeballs.

Houston is based in the fourth largest city in the United States and will offer the Big 12 a foothold in a key market it had lost with the departure of Texas A&M.

Cincinnati offers a bridge to the Midwest in a football-rich area, along with a natural rival for West Virginia. And the Bearcats became the first group of five team to reach the College Football Playoff this past season.

If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

I don't think so. IMHO, I think the B12 "could" surpass the ACC in the next few years football wise

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, the B12 has the potential of climbing to the #3 P5.

The Big 12 is #3 now, and could be just as strong, if not stronger, after adding UC, UCF, UH, and BYU.

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]...the PAC and ACC are on the decline...

They may be the #4 and #5 ranked P5 conferences, but what is the evidence suggesting that they are "on the decline?"

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]Now, does the PAC counter the B12's new strength in a couple years? SDSU? Boise? UNLV?

The PAC-12 seems to have little interest in expanding. This could change, however, if the Big 12 expands, making the PAC-12 the smallest P5 conference.

.

Memphis

/thread

(06-21-2022 07:13 PM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]I am not so sure that the BIG12 will expand unless someone leaves

The departure of commissioner Bowlsby, in particular, may have put Big 12 expansion in doubt. Last September, he stated that the Big 12 would have as many teams as the SEC (i.e., 16 teams) by 2026. At least one Big 12 president (TTU?) seemed to express disagreement with that idea, but IIRC, Oklahoma State's AD spoke strongly in favor of it and went so far as to set forth his hope that the Big 12 would be adding Memphis, SMU, USF, and Boise State.

.

(06-21-2022 06:50 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P". The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

If you are correct, a better question might be what P5 schools have a decent chance of being left behind.

Good question. If the top teams from the ACC left, and the remaining handful of teams decided to disband instead of attempting a raid, which G5 conferences would teams like UNC and Boston College end up in?

(06-21-2022 09:04 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 06:50 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 02:26 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]By 2025 there will only be four conferences regarded as "P". The only school that should be on your list is SDSU.

If you are correct, a better question might be what P5 schools have a decent chance of being left behind.

Good question. If the top teams from the ACC left, and the remaining handful of teams decided to disband instead of attempting a raid, which G5 conferences would teams like UNC and Boston College end up in?

Well played, sir.

(06-21-2022 07:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, the B12 has the potential of climbing to the #3 P5.

The Big 12 is #3 now, and could be just as strong, if not stronger, after adding UC, UCF, UH, and BYU.

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]...the PAC and ACC are on the decline...

They may be the #4 and #5 ranked P5 conferences, but what is the evidence suggesting that they are "on the decline?"

(06-21-2022 07:31 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote: [ -> ]Now, does the PAC counter the B12's new strength in a couple years? SDSU? Boise? UNLV?

The PAC-12 seems to have little interest in expanding. This could change, however, if the Big 12 expands, making the PAC-12 the smallest P5 conference.

.

1. Agree 100%

2. They are 4 and 5 and will stay that way

3. They are going to have to if they want to keep up. West coast fb isn't all that popular except on the west coast.

(06-21-2022 02:19 PM)Yosef181 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote: [ -> ]In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets
5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?
3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

You listed too many, in my opinion. The ones in bold are the ones who have an actual shot.

Think you have it right. SD state, Col ST. Boise, Memphis, USF, SMU. that is it and each school is at best 20% chance. Unlikely more than 2 go anywhere.