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Some of these early preseason rankings by the well-esteemed Bart Torvik (e.g., USF & SMU's rankings, in particular) are bound to surprise some people, but regardless, here they are:
#5 Houston
#39 Tulane
#48 Memphis
#64 Temple
#69 Cincinnati
#98 UCF
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#106 USF
#109 Wichita State
#142 Tulsa
#153 SMU
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#219 ECU
https://barttorvik.com/
Houston and Tulane fans may find their rankings especially encouraging.
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For those who are interested in the AAC 2.0:
#39 Tulane
#45 UAB
#48 Memphis
#55 UNT
#64 Temple
#94 FAU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
#106 USF
#109 Wichita State
#142 Tulsa
#153 SMU
#186 UNCC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
#211 Rice
#219 ECU
#226 UTSA
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2 thoughts.
1. UCF is overrated.
2. New AAC will be just fine in BB.
Tulane is really surprising to me. They do have 3 very good players but need to develop some more depth.
I definitely like UC to be a little bit higher (top 50ish) - this shows my confidence in guys like Viktor Lakhin continuing to develop, but UC returns it's 4 top players by win shares and adds Landers Nolley.
Wichita and USF both look a bit high to me, particularly USF. I'd be surprised if SMU is that low but I'll need to review their roster in more detail.
Memphis is a long way from having a finished roster.
(06-02-2022 09:51 AM)JFlight21 Wrote: [ -> ]Tulane is really surprising to me. They do have 3 very good players but need to develop some more depth.
I definitely like UC to be a little bit higher (top 50ish) - this shows my confidence in guys like Viktor Lakhin continuing to develop, but UC returns it's 4 top players by win shares and adds Landers Nolley.
Wichita and USF both look a bit high to me, particularly USF. I'd be surprised if SMU is that low but I'll need to review their roster in more detail.
USF looks high, but Wichita looks low, and SMU looks EXTREMELY low to me, based on their 2022 recruiting page, which indicates that they have a 4 star 7 foot center, a former 4 star PF, and a former 5 star recruit (Williamson) joining them (7 total recruits/transfers).
https://247sports.com/college/smu/Season...l/Commits/
(06-02-2022 09:51 AM)JFlight21 Wrote: [ -> ]Tulane is really surprising to me. They do have 3 very good players but need to develop some more depth.
I definitely like UC to be a little bit higher (top 50ish) - this shows my confidence in guys like Viktor Lakhin continuing to develop, but UC returns it's 4 top players by win shares and adds Landers Nolley.
Wichita and USF both look a bit high to me, particularly USF. I'd be surprised if SMU is that low but I'll need to review their roster in more detail.
these are Torvik rankings, which in the preseason are pretty much useless.. especially in the world of transfer portal
but i think you are underestimating tulane a bit.. there were the 3rd best team to end the year ..they only have 3 stars but they have like 4 other dept pieces that are essential that will now be on their 3rd year.. sion james who is their glue guy is on his 3rd year starting, rj mcgee and tylan pope are notable for them 3 years with hunter..
the question mark with tulane isnt depth, but they are tiny, and did nothing to change that , if you think its possible to win with small ball in the aac (6'8 at the 5, 6'6 at the 4) then Tulane will be really good .. side note they at a 6'6 starting PF from Georgetown who did 10per as a soph (covid freshmen) , and a former 4star 6'6 wing (but no notable stats any of his 3 years - does have nice handle from his reels )
(06-02-2022 11:14 AM)pesik Wrote: [ -> ] (06-02-2022 09:51 AM)JFlight21 Wrote: [ -> ]Tulane is really surprising to me. They do have 3 very good players but need to develop some more depth.
I definitely like UC to be a little bit higher (top 50ish) - this shows my confidence in guys like Viktor Lakhin continuing to develop, but UC returns it's 4 top players by win shares and adds Landers Nolley.
Wichita and USF both look a bit high to me, particularly USF. I'd be surprised if SMU is that low but I'll need to review their roster in more detail.
these are Torvik rankings, which in the preseason are pretty much useless.. especially in the world of transfer portal
but i think you are underestimating tulane a bit.. there were the 3rd best team to end the year ..they only have 3 stars but they have like 4 other dept pieces that are essential that will now be on their 3rd year.. sion james who is their glue guy is on his 3rd year starting, rj mcgee and tylan pope are notable for them 3 years with hunter..
the question mark with tulane isnt depth, but they are tiny ,and didnt nothing to change that , if you think its possible to win with small ball in the aac (6'8 at the 5, 6'6 at the 4) then tulane will be really good .. side note they at a 6'6 starting PF from Georgetown who did 10per as a soph (covid freshmen) , and a former 4star 6'6 wing (but no notable stats any of his 3 years - do has nice handle from his reels )
I hope you're right, because if Tulane is going to be as good as Torvik predicts, then the AAC could have a pretty strong chance of having 3 NCAA tournament teams in 2023 - which it is overdue for.
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Cincy adding Nolley is a big deal. I think they will have a chance at making the tourney. Cincinnati desperately needed a 3rd scorer and Nolley fits exactly what they needed. In fact, he might be our leading scorer next season.
(06-02-2022 03:42 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]Cincy adding Nolley is a big deal. I think they will have a chance at making the tourney. Cincinnati desperately needed a 3rd scorer and Nolley fits exactly what they needed. In fact, he might be our leading scorer next season.
He will be if you give him the ball enough.
(06-02-2022 03:42 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]Cincy adding Nolley is a big deal. I think they will have a chance at making the tourney. Cincinnati desperately needed a 3rd scorer and Nolley fits exactly what they needed. In fact, he might be our leading scorer next season.
Cincy seems to have had these four players, transfer out:
Banks (6'5" SO) (DNP)
Madsen (6'4" FR) (3.9 pts, 1.3 rb)
McGinnis (6'3" FR) (2.3 pts, 0.5 rb)
Saunders (6'0 FR) (7.3 pts, 2.0 rb, 2.7 ast)
...and added these players:
Ezikpe (6'8" JR) (10.3 pts, 6.7 rb)
Nolley (6'7" RS SO) (9.8 pts, 3.9 rb, 2.8 ast)
Phinisee (6'1" JR) (4.5 pts, 2.1 rb, 1.7 ast)
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Question: What is the status of:
Ado (6'11" SR) - (played 5 seasons) graduated? (2.4 pts, 4.5 rb)
Koval (7'1" SR) - (played 5 seasons) graduated? (3.1 pts, 3.0 rb)
So Cincy's roster looks something like this (?):
Adams-Woods (6'3" G) (8.6 pts, 2.6 rb, 3.1 ast.)
Anthony (6'0 G) 0.6 pts, 0.4 rb)
Davenport (6'7 G) (13.4 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast)
Dejulius (6'0 G) (14.5 pts, 22.8 rb, 2.6 ast)
Ezikpe (6'8 F) (10.3 pts, 6.7 rb)
Hensley (6'8 F) (1.5 pts, 1.3 rb)
Lakhin (6'11 F) (4.2 pts, 3.5 rb)
Newman (6'5 G) (6.9 pts, 4.2 rb)
Nolley (6'7 SF) (9.8 pts, 3.9 rb, 2.8 ast)
Oguama (6'9 F) (4.2 pts, 4.2 rb)
Phinisee (6'1 G) (4.5 pts, 2.1 rb, 1.7 ast)
Is that roughly the situation? Any other additions?
It looks like they'll be losing a little height, but gaining a couple of capable scorers. Nolley will certainly give them an added scoring punch and some additional star power alongside Dejulius and Davenport. They should be a team to contend with.
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Ado and Koval are gone. UC will lose a bit of rim protection but that should be at least partially negated by better perimeter defense replacing Saunders and Madsen (both terrible defenders) with Phinisee and Nolley, who both are plus in that area. Daniel Skillings also joins in the perimeter and he has great length so I’m hopeful on him but you can’t expect too much from freshman defensively.
Those two bigs were also complete zeros on offense. Ezikpe will be an improvement offensively but I’m most bullish on Lakhin taking a huge step forward and anchoring that position.
I’d argue UC got better positions 1-5 adding Phinisee, Skillings, Nolley, Reed, Ezikpe and Tolentino to replace Saunders, Madsen, McGinnis, Ado and Koval.
(06-03-2022 10:05 AM)JFlight21 Wrote: [ -> ]Ado and Koval are gone. UC will lose a bit of rim protection but that should be at least partially negated by better perimeter defense replacing Saunders and Madsen (both terrible defenders) with Phinisee and Nolley, who both are plus in that area. Daniel Skillings also joins in the perimeter and he has great length so I’m hopeful on him but you can’t expect too much from freshman defensively.
Those two bigs were also complete zeros on offense. Ezikpe will be an improvement offensively but I’m most bullish on Lakhin taking a huge step forward and anchoring that position.
I’d argue UC got better positions 1-5 adding Phinisee, Skillings, Nolley, Reed, Ezikpe and Tolentino to replace Saunders, Madsen, McGinnis, Ado and Koval.
5 is still the biggest question for UC. I agree they are better 1-4. 5 they were very limited on offense last year, but UC's defense at the 5 was why they were pretty elite defending the 2 most of the year. I think the potential is there to be better at the 5, but it's a big question.
(06-03-2022 10:05 AM)JFlight21 Wrote: [ -> ]Ado and Koval are gone. UC will lose a bit of rim protection but that should be at least partially negated by better perimeter defense replacing Saunders and Madsen (both terrible defenders) with Phinisee and Nolley, who both are plus in that area. Daniel Skillings also joins in the perimeter and he has great length so I’m hopeful on him but you can’t expect too much from freshman defensively.
Those two bigs were also complete zeros on offense. Ezikpe will be an improvement offensively but I’m most bullish on Lakhin taking a huge step forward and anchoring that position.
I’d argue UC got better positions 1-5 adding Phinisee, Skillings, Nolley, Reed, Ezikpe and Tolentino to replace Saunders, Madsen, McGinnis, Ado and Koval.
Looking for details on the HS recruits, I found that 24/7's recruiting page ranks Cincy's class of 2022 quite highly (#38th in the nation). The three HS recruits are all top 250 players, and Sklllings is listed as a 4 star recruit.
So their 2022-23 roster looks more like this than the list presented above:
Adams-Woods (6'3" G) (8.6 pts, 2.6 rb, 3.1 ast.)
Anthony (6'0 G) 0.6 pts, 0.4 rb)
Davenport (6'7 G) (13.4 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast)
Dejulius (6'0 G) (14.5 pts, 22.8 rb, 2.6 ast)
Ezikpe (6'8 F) (10.3 pts, 6.7 rb)
Hensley (6'8 F) (1.5 pts, 1.3 rb)
Lakhin (6'11 F) (4.2 pts, 3.5 rb)
Newman (6'5 G) (6.9 pts, 4.2 rb)
Nolley (6'7 SF) (9.8 pts, 3.9 rb, 2.8 ast)
Oguama (6'9 F) (4.2 pts, 4.2 rb)
Phinisee (6'1 G) (4.5 pts, 2.1 rb, 1.7 ast)
Reed (6'6 SF) 3 star HS recruit ranked #147th nationally by 24/7.
Skillings (6'5 SG) (4 star HS recruit)
Tolentino (7'0 C) 3 star HS recruit ranked #237th nationally by 24/7.
(14 players are listed, so one of them might be a walk-on, etc.)
On paper, this does look like a much more talented team, and a team that should at least be able to split their series with just about every team in the conference, except possibly Houston.
Purely based on their stats and ratings and on Torvik's preseason ranking, it's not hard to envision the Bearcats having the potential to win 12 or 13 conference games and 22 or 23 regular season games, overall, which would make them a potential NCAA bubble team that could make their way into one of the two major tournaments.
As with most teams adding a substantial number of new players, a lot will depend on the development of the incoming freshmen and of team chemistry, and the amount of time it takes for the incoming players to acclimate to a new HC and system and gel as a unit.
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Is SMU really going to be this bad? Davis and Band gone, nearly new roster, new coach. New philosophy going big and defensive it would appear. Interested in Pesik's and others take on the new SMU.
We are going to be noticeably improved from last year, but this still seems to be like a bubble team. I do like the team, so I’m hopeful we’ll on the upside of that cutline, but it will be close IMO so a bounce or two here or there will make a difference.
(06-03-2022 11:20 AM)AusTxPony Wrote: [ -> ]Is SMU really going to be this bad? Davis and Band gone, nearly new roster, new coach. New philosophy going big and defensive it would appear. Interested in Pesik's and others take on the new SMU.
extremely high ceiling, extremely low floor team...imo the widest gap in the aac for how good they could be to just how bad them could be
smu got a ton of high potential players who have yet to play to that potential .. smu could be horrile if the potential is not tapped
its depends how you look at th rosTer
The good:
Samuell Williamson - Former 5star that had a great sophmore year in the ACC
Nutall- former southland POY
Zhuric Phelps - Mr Basketball in Texas about to have a breakout soph year
Ricardo Wright- 14pt as an underclassman
Keon Ambrose-Hylton - former 4star recruit
Efe Odigie - 1st team All sunbelt
Xavier Foster- former top 80 recruit, really good efficiency numbers
Stefan Todorović - former 4star elite shooter about to have a breakout soph year
Mo Njie - was a starting center as freshmen
theres enough in there to say they could be really really good, i wish smu had gotten 1 proven scoring guard, i think that would have drastically raised the floor for smu.. will have the most size in the aac
the bad:
Samuell Williamson - cant shoot, demoted on a not good Louisville
Nutall- barely notable in his 1st aac year
Zhuric Phelps - nothing notable as a freshmen
Ricardo Wright- coming from a really low level (low level move up rarely work out)
Keon Ambrose-Hylton - deep bench for 2 years
Efe Odigie - coming from a really low level (low level move up rarely work out)
Xavier Foster- barely played, injury issue
Stefan Todorović - defense is terrible, nothing of not as a freshmen
Mo Njie - not notable stats from a low level league
there is no for sure good player on smu either...no proven scoring guard, no proven pg .. your in a situation you need nutall or wright to be a significant player.. smu could be horrible and it would make sense too
SMU will be a high ceiling, low floor team..likely the widest range in the league
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From Tulane, 24/7, and sports reference sites:
BRAELEE ALBERT (6'5 G/F JR) - no data at sports reference.com (walk-on?)
SION JAMES (6'4 G SO) (7.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg)
JADAN COLEMAN (6'0 G SO) (6.3 ppg, 1 rpg, 0.7 apg)
JALEN COOK (6'9 F SO) (18 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.5 apg)
NOBAL DAYS (6'6 F SO) (0.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.4 apg)
COLLIN HOLLOWAY (6'6" F FR) transfer G'town (9.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 25.6 mpg)
OTON JANKOVIC (6'9" C SO) (0.2 ppg, 0.4 rpg)
PERCY DANIELS (6'9" C) 3 star HS recruit (Nat'l: #242)
TRE' WILLIAMS (6'6" G JR) transfer OR St. (3 ppg, 1.6 rbg, 1.2 apg, 15.5 mpg)
MAX BOWMAN (6'0" G SO) - no data at sports reference.com (walk-on?)
R.J. MCGEE (6'5" G SO) (4.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.2 apg)
KEVIN CROSS (6'8" F JR) (13.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.6 apg)
JAYLEN FORBES (6'5" G JR) (16.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 apg)
TYLAN POPE (6'6" F RS SO) (3.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.2 apg)
With all but 3 players returning from last season's 5th place (10-8) AAC team, Tulane could contest for 2nd place in 2022-23, according to Bart Torvik, who lists the Green Wave at #38 in his preseason rankings. Cook, Cross, and Forbes are potent scorers, and the team also has some very capable role players. Holloway and Daniels will be welcome additions to Tulane's front court. One of the youngest teams in the conference, Tulane seems to have the potential to become one of the upper-tier programs in the American within the next 2-3 years, and they may have at least a 50/50 shot at a NCAA bid in 2023.
Tulane is feisty, quick, and can hit the ground running, having already gelled as a unit with strong chemistry and an impressive young HC. They should be able to at least split their series with every team in the conference, with the possible exception of Houston, and they could finish with 12-13 conference wins and 22-24 regular season wins, overall.
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Tulane is... ...a basketball school now????
In a weird way, it makes sense for a small academic private in an inner city to be a hoops school.
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UPDATE: DEUCE ROBERTS (6'7" CG RECRUIT) HAS COMMITTED TO PLAY AT TEMPLE.
Temple, with 11 roster spots filled, is still a work in progress at this point.
Khalif Battle (6'5 SG JR) (21.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1 apg)
Damian Dunn (6'5" G/W) (14.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2 apg)
Zach Hicks (6'7" F/W) (8.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.6 apg)
Nick Jourdain (6'8" F) (6.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.8 apg)
Hysier Miller (6'1 PG SO) (4.9 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Emmanuel Okpomo (6'10 C) (1.4 ppg, 1 rpg)
Jahlil White (6'7" G/W) (9.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.3 apg)
Jamille Reynolds (6'9" F) transfer UCF (3.4 ppg, 2 rpg)
Kur Jongkuch (6'9 C) transfer N. Colo. (8.9 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Taj Thweatt (6'7" F/W) transfer WVU (1 ppg, 3.3 mpg)
Deuce Roberts (6'7" "Swing Guard") HS Recruit
With Khalif Battle announcing his return, Temple fans have some reason to hope that their team can improve on their 17-12 (10-7 (4th place, AAC) ) record last season, the third season in a row that they had to contend with multiple injuries to key players. The Owls' core unit (Battle-Dunn-Miller-Hicks-White-Jourdain) is strong, with Battle and Dunn both receiving second or third team all-conference honors and with Hicks and White both being named to the conference's all-rookie team.
The addition of Reynolds (a 3.5 star HS recruit), Jongkuch, and Thweatt will help to shore up a front court depleted by 3 outgoing transfers, but Temple's starting PF (Jourdain) may have to split his minutes between the 4 and 5 positions. The team's wings (White, Hicks, & Thweatt) are likely to split their minutes between the 3 and 4 positions, as they (JW & ZH) did much of last season.
Reynolds and Thweatt's stat lines may underestimate their potential. Reynolds (14.1 pts & 8.3 rbs per 40 minutes) is the most muscular & assertive big man Temple has had in years, and Thweatt (who was twice named the Southern New Jersey HS Player of the Year) was a highly-regarded, energetic, and athletic HS recruit who will be rejoining his former HS teammate (J. White). Thus, both additions could help to create some positive synergies for the team.
One of the team's biggest challenges will be to find a way for Battle and Dunn - both of whom are natural shooting guards - to play more effectively than they have to date when they're both on the floor together. Both will have to amp up their defense and improve their ball movement and especially their assist:turnover ratios. Another challenge will be to find some way to limit Nick Jourdain's foul trouble, which severely limited his mpg during the closing weeks of last season. Jourdain was one of the team's most crucial contributors during the team's most successful (7-3) mid-season stretch, so at least he has at times had the ability to play without excessive foul trouble.
If they can deal with these challenges effectively and stay relatively healthy through the season, the Owls probably have what it takes to contend for a NCAA or NIT bid. Adding a couple of versatile role players who could ease the amount of wear & tear on the starters, such as a backup PG or combo guard with PG skills, could also be very helpful.
UPDATE: DEUCE ROBERTS FITS THE DESCRIPTION OF A "COMBO GUARD WITH PG SKILLS" (3.5 APG IN HS), AND HE CAN ALSO PLAY THE WING POSITION.
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Total (NCAA+NIT) votes so far:
Memphis: 6 votes (5 NCAA, 1 NIT)
Cincy: 4 votes (1 NCAA, 3 NIT)
SMU: 4 votes (1 NCAA, 3 NIT)
Tulane: 4 votes (4 NCAA)
Temple: 4 votes (4 NCAA)
Wichita State: 1 vote (1 NIT)
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