I won't deny the importance of a franchise QB. The Steelers didn't have a single losing season with Ben as the QB. I can argue that Ben being paid top 5 money in terms of cap hit greatly contributed to the lack of SB appearances, let alone championships in the second half of his career.
When you look at the last ten SB champions, there's a common thread: QBs on their rookie deal (Mahomes, Wilson and Wentz [albeit Foles won the game]), or journeymen QBs revitalizing their career. The exception to this rule has been Tom Brady. He's been an enigma, and when you look at his cap hits from 2012-16 it makes it easier to understand why the Patriots went on a run. He was making 13m-16m those seasons, well under the value of a franchise QB, during that era. Even now he's making less than $15m.
It's no coincidence that Wilson and Rodgers hasn't been back to the big game since their rookie deals. Then look at today's news with Chiefs WR Hill looking for a trade. The QB market is making it impossible to keep SB teams together. It's also no coincidence that for the first time in 25 years the Steelers actually became spenders in the FA market.
You're right that the NFL salary cap makes it extremely difficult for a team to afford both a top-tier QB on a post-rookie contract and enough quality at other positions to be a Super Bowl contender.
Overpaying players at other positions when you don't have a franchise QB isn't such a great idea, either. You mentioned Tyreek Hill. What are the Dolphins thinking? They're paying top dollar to Hill but they'll have either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. You can make the playoffs with Bridgewater, and maybe with Tua, but almost everything would have to go right to get to a Super Bowl with one of those guys at QB. In other words, even with Hill on his big new contract, the Dolphins have the same ceiling that the 49ers have with Garoppolo.
(03-23-2022 01:18 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]You're right that the NFL salary cap makes it extremely difficult for a team to afford both a top-tier QB on a post-rookie contract and enough quality at other positions to be a Super Bowl contender.
Overpaying players at other positions when you don't have a franchise QB isn't such a great idea, either. You mentioned Tyreek Hill. What are the Dolphins thinking? They're paying top dollar to Hill but they'll have either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. You can make the playoffs with Bridgewater, and maybe with Tua, but almost everything would have to go right to get to a Super Bowl with one of those guys at QB. In other words, even with Hill on his big new contract, the Dolphins have the same ceiling that the 49ers have with Garoppolo.
At this point, the best option for the Dolphins is to surround Tua with talent and see if he can be a franchise QB. Tua is on his rookie deal for at two more seasons, and his option in year 5 can be picked up at a reasonable cost. McDaniel, their new head coach, will be running the 49ers offense with their outside zone running scheme, and if that is working well, then they will have an effective play-action passing attack with a talented group of receivers to throw to. It works in theory if Tua is a franchise QB. If Tua is Jimmy G, then you are right, they have about the same ceiling as the 49ers, and the Dolphins will have a tougher road in the AFC than the 49ers have in the NFC.
AFC is brutal this year.
Browns, Bengals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and maybe the Colts all think they have a chance to make a run in the playoffs.
Five of the twelve listed above will not make the post season.
I agree with the conclusions from the OP, but practical application by an actual GM is very complicated. It's way less risky to resign a franchise QB coming off their rookie deal (likely keeping the team in consistent playoff contention and finances in healthy shape) then replacing them in favor of a rookie deal player (either giving up a ton of draft/player capital to acquire a proven commodity and the rest of the roster is less off regardless, or trusting a draft pick who will be seen as a disappointment unless they're just as good as the last guy and the team wins more than wherever the previous QB wound up). It's the kind of thing that would get a GM fired pretty easily, most front office groups will go with a safer option that keeps them employed even if it handicaps their deep playoff potential.
(03-24-2022 02:27 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-23-2022 01:18 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]You're right that the NFL salary cap makes it extremely difficult for a team to afford both a top-tier QB on a post-rookie contract and enough quality at other positions to be a Super Bowl contender.
Overpaying players at other positions when you don't have a franchise QB isn't such a great idea, either. You mentioned Tyreek Hill. What are the Dolphins thinking? They're paying top dollar to Hill but they'll have either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. You can make the playoffs with Bridgewater, and maybe with Tua, but almost everything would have to go right to get to a Super Bowl with one of those guys at QB. In other words, even with Hill on his big new contract, the Dolphins have the same ceiling that the 49ers have with Garoppolo.
At this point, the best option for the Dolphins is to surround Tua with talent and see if he can be a franchise QB. Tua is on his rookie deal for at two more seasons, and his option in year 5 can be picked up at a reasonable cost. McDaniel, their new head coach, will be running the 49ers offense with their outside zone running scheme, and if that is working well, then they will have an effective play-action passing attack with a talented group of receivers to throw to. It works in theory if Tua is a franchise QB. If Tua is Jimmy G, then you are right, they have about the same ceiling as the 49ers, and the Dolphins will have a tougher road in the AFC than the 49ers have in the NFC.
OK, but there is still no point in the Dolphins paying that much for Hill. It's like someone with a modest house in a decent-but-not-great neighborhood spending $1 million to renovate their house. It's not worth it because the possible increase in the home's value is limited by the neighborhood, just as the prospects of an NFL team with a mediocre-at-best QB are limited. The Dolphins could have upgraded their receiver depth with less pricey options and still gotten as much as they could out of Tua.
(03-27-2022 04:41 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (03-24-2022 02:27 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-23-2022 01:18 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]You're right that the NFL salary cap makes it extremely difficult for a team to afford both a top-tier QB on a post-rookie contract and enough quality at other positions to be a Super Bowl contender.
Overpaying players at other positions when you don't have a franchise QB isn't such a great idea, either. You mentioned Tyreek Hill. What are the Dolphins thinking? They're paying top dollar to Hill but they'll have either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. You can make the playoffs with Bridgewater, and maybe with Tua, but almost everything would have to go right to get to a Super Bowl with one of those guys at QB. In other words, even with Hill on his big new contract, the Dolphins have the same ceiling that the 49ers have with Garoppolo.
At this point, the best option for the Dolphins is to surround Tua with talent and see if he can be a franchise QB. Tua is on his rookie deal for at two more seasons, and his option in year 5 can be picked up at a reasonable cost. McDaniel, their new head coach, will be running the 49ers offense with their outside zone running scheme, and if that is working well, then they will have an effective play-action passing attack with a talented group of receivers to throw to. It works in theory if Tua is a franchise QB. If Tua is Jimmy G, then you are right, they have about the same ceiling as the 49ers, and the Dolphins will have a tougher road in the AFC than the 49ers have in the NFC.
OK, but there is still no point in the Dolphins paying that much for Hill. It's like someone with a modest house in a decent-but-not-great neighborhood spending $1 million to renovate their house. It's not worth it because the possible increase in the home's value is limited by the neighborhood, just as the prospects of an NFL team with a mediocre-at-best QB are limited. The Dolphins could have upgraded their receiver depth with less pricey options and still gotten as much as they could out of Tua.
Tyreek Hill has a salary cap number of $6.4 million for 2022. I think the Dolphin organization would probably disagree with your description of Tua as a "mediocre-at-best QB." The Dolphins are loaded with speed at wide receiver, with Hill, Cedric Wilson, and Jaylen Waddle. Putting the franchise tag on tight end Mike Gesicki was a good move for this season. Adding Terron Armstead at left tackle and Connor Williams at left guard through free agency helped, as well as Chase Edmonds at RB.
The price they paid in terms of draft picks for Hill is where the Dolphins may have some regret. Trading five draft picks is a lot. They may trade Devante Parker and get one of those draft picks back. They have a total of five picks in the 2022 draft. I am not a big fan of Tua, but the Dolphin organization invested a 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft on the guy, and they need to find out if he can be a good NFL QB. A lot of NFL people thought Tua was better than Herbert, the Dolphin organization being one, and I just think they need to find out how good he can be with good talent around him. There will be no excuses for Tua if he fails next season.
The issue is that team owners ultimately defining who is or isn't a franchise QB. Their metrics are going to be different than the Head Coach/GM since the former can't lose their job by guessing wrong.
(03-28-2022 09:01 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: [ -> ]The price they paid in terms of draft picks for Hill is where the Dolphins may have some regret.
Yes. Hill's cap number is not the issue. The point is that trading all of that draft capital for Hill, as good as he is, doesn't make sense for the Dolphins. It would have been better used in other ways.
(03-30-2022 12:07 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]The issue is that team owners ultimately defining who is or isn't a franchise QB. Their metrics are going to be different than the Head Coach/GM since the former can't lose their job by guessing wrong.
That's definitely a huge problem. They're so into the need-to-win now mode that they exhibit very little patience it needs to build a championship level team. They fire GMs and coaches so fast that they're not able to develop QBs on their roster and new GMs/coaches want to draft "their guy" to be the franchise QB. For the most part the Steelers been regularly winning since the 70s and thankfully we have a solid plan in place. I may be against the idea of drafting a Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett, but the Steelers would give them every opportunity to succeed and not immediately give up on him.